Answering Peter Gammons

On his blog today Peter Gammons asks and then answers 5 questions. I figured I might as well answer them too.

1. Which team can pay CC Sabathia more than $140 million?

That's an easy answer to me, it's the Yankees. There are rumors the Angels may match the Yankees offer, which just means the Yankees will offer more than $140m. Pretty simple one to start.

2. The Braves, Cubs and seemingly everyone else claim they're not in on Jake Peavy. What's going on?

Peter, I have to say that's not a good question, or not a good one for me to answer. What's going on is your job, I'll do my best. The Padres have Peavy for a few years under a reasonable contract. He wants to be traded but only to a winner, so if the Braves have to give up too many good players (they haven't said they would yet but) Peavy may be less inclined to go. The Cubs don't have the goods and as Pete says need a 3rd team. Unless the Braves cough up their better prospects this won't happen. Peavy has an affordable contract and it wouldn't kill them or Peavy to hold on until something comes along during the year or next.

3. How can Scott Boras ask for more than two years for Manny Ramirez?

He hit amazing enough for a team to think he's actually dedicated. I don't know what else to say, teams need hitting and he's the 2nd best available hitter, it's in ManRam's hands.

4. Where is A.J. Burnett going?

Pretty cop-out answer Pete. Obviously he'll wait untill Sabathia drives up the price, but I'm going to guess the Mets. All that BS competing for backpages stuff may get to them and they should replace Oliver Perez.

5. Is Pudge Rodriguez done?

That's another easy question, of course he's done. The real question is will someone sign him? Someone probably will, although anyone who does is wasting whatever money they throw at him.

Japan Red Sox

In my 2nd offseason prediction posts I said:

"The Red Sox sign some Japanese reliever that does unreasonably well and makes the Yankees look bad. The success rate for Japanese relievers doing well their first season or so in the majors is way too good not to try this often, the Yankees should get on that boat, while shipping Igawa on another."

I guess the "some Japanese reliever" is Junichi Tazawa who is rumored to be signing with the Red Sox. Tazawa is an amateur Japanese player who decided to try the majors in the U.S. instead of Nippon Professional Baseball, Japan's professional baseball league. Tazawa's fastball reaches 97 mph and had ridiculous numbers albeit in a minor leauge version of Japanese baseball. Okajima, Dice-K, and now Tazawa, the Red Sox are looking to go 3-3 on their imports, even if Matsuzaka isn't an ace you can't say he hasn't been good for the Red Sox, ok fine they're looking to go 2.75/3 what would his (Dice-K) numbers look like on the Royals this year?

Regardless of Matsuzaka's success which I didn't intend to talk about, this is a great move by the Red Sox. The big market teams can always sign huge free agents, but there is no reason they can't spend money on their farm (like the Red Sox have done remarkably well) or invest in these Japanese relievers who do real well at the very least for a little while as relievers. Saito, Otsuka, Okajima, Sasaki, Hasegawa, and there are many others. Some of these guys like Saito were just ok in Japan but are top notch closers in America. Some go by deception that doesn't last forever, but the point is most are successful even if only for a little and I believe Tazawa will be a solid reliever at least for a couple years and probably more.

Answer For lmillz

Loyal reader lmillz posts:

"The more and more this offseason progresses the more i've been changing myperspective on what i think the Yankees should do with their staff. First off,i'm getting a little fed up with the Sabathia situation, if he doesn't want toplay here, don't force him to. Yes, he's amazing and he would be an ideal fitfor the Yankees but spending that much money on a guy who may not be able tohandle New York just doesn't seem like a good idea. So...i propose we do 2things. The first, trade for Peavy. Supposedly the Padres had told the Yankeesthey can work a deal out without putting Phil Hughes in the package which isamazing in my opinion, even if it means maybe dealing Cano, Peavy in my opinionis better suited for New York and could be better than CC. #2, sign Derek Lowe.The guy is a proven winner, a innings eater, and can pitch in the AL he seemslike a perfect fit. With those 2 moves done then i think the Yankees should takea high risk/high reward chance on Ben Sheets and pray he stays healthy. If hedoes we have a rotation of Peavy, Wang, Sheets, Joba and Lowe. By far the bestin baseball. And, it puts no pressure on Joba to carry the rotation and allowsHughes to start in the minors and god forbid Sheets gets hurt Hughes is stillthere. What do u think Ben?"

I disagree with your opinions on Sabathia. He is a great pitcher, one of the best in baseball, and arguably better than Peavy when you consider his durability and his proven dominance in the American (aka varsity) League. Sabathia is going to sign a 7 year deal that will put him on one team for the rest of his prime years, he's going to want to make sure he definitely wants to play there, so the fact that he didn't sign/reject the proposed offer automatically doesn't bother me. Sabathia has pitched in the playoffs (albeit not well) the last two years, and adapted well to the NL when he moved while carrying the Brewers on his huge frame. Not great reason to expect him to handle NY, but no reason not too. Sabathia is risky like any other pitcher, but it's the risk that the Yankees can handle and therefore should do. It's just money, and for the Yanks that's not bad. Trading for Peavy is money and prospects or even worse Cano, who although has his faults is still young and would require the Yankees to fill a hole at 2nd. If they trade Cano for a CF and sign a 2b (Orlando Hudson) I would have less problems. But trading Cano to fill a starting pitching need seems stupid now considering they can fill that hole with free agents.

Peavy pitches in by far the best pitching park in all of baseball in a significantly worse league in a significantly worse division. His career home ERA is 2.77 road 3.80, last year 1.74/4.28, 2007 2.51/2.57, 2006 3.75/4.57. He's not only good at home, he's actually quite good away still, but it's not consistent and his value is definitely inflated because of the park and league that he pitches in. Sabathia has pitched 494 innings the last 2 years, which terrifies some people, when it easily could mean he can just handle that kind of load. Meanwhile nobody gets terrified about Peavy missing time this year with elbow problems only throwing 173 innings. Sabathia pitched a career high of innings in 2007 then topped it in 2008, Peavy pitched a career high 222.3 innings in 2007 then got hurt in 2008. If CC decides he doesn't want to go to New York and signs elsewhere and the Yanks turn to Peavy that's different I don't have a problem with that because that's Sabathia's call, but with a choice between signing Sabathia and trading for Peavy, signing Sabathia makes more sense.

Now signing Lowe like I have said before, I definitely agree with. You made all the right points, he's the kind of durable solid pitcher the Yankees need. If they are signing/trading for 2 pitchers this offseason one would be the ace(Peavy/Sabathia) adding him with Wang and the other pitcher just needs to be a good consistent pitcher which is what Lowe is and what Burnett and Sheets aren't. You make another interesting point about getting Peavy, Lowe, and Sheets Sheets being the high risk/high reward sign. I guess if they are getting Peavy the money difference with Sabathia could afford Sheets, but I don't know if it's reasonable to expect that much signing by the Yanks. Like signing Sabathia, it's a risk the Yanks can take, so signing a high reward/high risk pitcher I have no problem with. Any reasoning that takes away pressure from Joba or allows Hughes to not be forced into the fire is music to my ears and it would obviously be on paper the best rotation like you said, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect it.

Angels in the Rotation

New news/rumors or whatever you want to call it...if the Angels can't keep Teixeira they may try to go for it all in the rotation. Miss out on Teixeira and get Sabathia and Peavy? Doesn't sound like they'd be missing out. Some combination of Sabathia, Lackey ,Peavy, Ervin Santana, and Joe Saunders would be laughably good with each one giving a totally different look to the opposing team, even if Saunders is a total fluke. I guess there is no guarantee that the Angels or any team could sign Sabathia and then still trade for Peavy, but I think the Angels would have to prefer that scenario over just signing Teixeira and going into battle. When the A's traded for Matt Holliday and then started talks with Furcal it seemed like the AL West leader would change, but it looks like the Angels don't have that in mind.

Just as a side note, in every Jake Peavy rumor there is another rumor that the other team could expand the deal and get Khalil Greene. Greene is due $6.5m next year and then is a free agent. He's been miserable at Petco, so it could be interesting to see how he does away from there. Career splits .225/.289/.369 home and .270/.318/.484 away. Not the greatest stats or the greatest OBP, but for a short stop if he can still pick it the Angels will take it. Although I'd worry about getting Peavy first and then debate if the grass is Greene-r on the other side.

Return of the Wiggy?

The Astros want to slash some payroll this offseason. Jose Valverde and Ty Wigginton will most likely receive increases in arbitration and will be free agents next year, so apparently they are on the trade market. Heard a fan on the radio talk about this the other day, bringing Wigginton back to New York for the Mets. Have to say it makes mighty fine sense to me.

Luis Castillo is bad, a bust, and a lot of moolah. He has 3 years and $18m left on his contract, some teams are forced to live with it but the Mets can count him as a sunk cost, most likely regardless of this financial crisis that everyone loves to talk about. Luis Castillo hasn't had an OPS+ over 100 (meaning he hasn't been a league average hitter or above) since 2005. He has settlted in to a 90-95 OPS+ hitter, which would be fine if he lived up to his reputation of Gold Glove defense and stealing bases. But when he plays mediocre defense and can't snag 40+ bases, or anywhere near that he's no longer a useful player. All this leads back to Ty Wigginton who wouldn't cost much in a trade, maybe a swap for Heilman? Wigginton can play 2b or 3b and can help out in the outfield. The Mets don't have to eat Castillo's contract literally, but they shouldn't start him. Wigginton would be a huge upgrade offensively over Castillo (128-77 OPS+) and his flexibility allows the Mets to give Wright days off, use Castillo sometimes, use Wiggy in left. This is the kind of addition that gets little notice but is the difference in a few wins towards the end of the season, a few wins that would put the Mets above the Phillies the last two years, the Mets should do it or something like it.

Yankees Pitching Staff

So apparently these hot stove rumors change daily, and the Yankees won't be offering Burnett a 5th year. The Yankees have illustrated to the world their almost desperate need for pitching. Does that mean if the Yanks won't go 5 that no team will? I'm not sure.

In some other related Yankee/Burnett/Rotation news, over at River Ave. Blues they speculate who is better for the Yankees Burnett or Sheets? Ben Sheets has been lost in the discussion of pitching this offseason, before the offseason Sheets was getting a lot of press mostly about concerns about him being to risky. That has lead to everyone talking about Sabathia, Lowe, Burnett and Jake Peavy trades leaving Sheets in the dust. It's pretty funny now looking back on it (even though it's only been a couple months) how quickly Sheets has been forgotten because of his history, yet Burnett is mentioned daily with several teams interested. River Ave. Blues makes some great points illustrating how Sheets is 18 months younger and even in his shorter career has thrown for more starts and innings than Burnett. The raw data even favors Sheets and his better K/BB ratios. As negotiating with Burnett leads to talks about a 5th year that the Yankees and others don't want to give him, why not turn over to Ben Sheets for less money and less years?

Can't Dodge the Bullet

Is it just me or are the Dodgers kind of in a mess? I'll admit, they have a great young core with Russel Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Jonathon Broxton, and Chad Billingsley...wait you mean the guy who slipped on ice and broke his leg? They won 84 games last year in the paltry National League West, and did so with mid season acquisitions like Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez and strong pitching from Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. Now Billingsley will most likely be ready to throw by spring, but that's not a good sign. To add insult to injury, pun intended, Manny, Blake, and Lowe and even SS Rafael Furcal are all rumored to most likely leave LA. What does that leave the team? Not much. It's still really early in the offseason to speculate but I will. LA could try to keep some of these guys until late into the offseason then lose out and not have a backup plan. They have to do something here, and most likely soon. Not to mention that they have to pay Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre laughably high salaries ($25m combined) next year, and Jason Schmidt is owed $12m as well. As of now they don't have a suitable LF, 3b, ss, 2b and their rotation could lose Lowe and Brad Penny. They are a big market team and can make a splash for C.C. or someone else still to come, but based on the rumors it seems as though they'll miss out on most.

The Dodgers made the playoffs, looked like they were going to make a run last year, and with all their good young players and good young players still to come or prove themselves they seemed to be in a good place. I have no doubt that the future of the Dodgers looks good, but for next year while they still have to pay some of those awful contracts (Jones and Schmidt, Pierre signed until '11 wow) it doesn't look like they'll repeat as division winners. Although, the Giants and Padres still suck (pardon my French), the Rockies just traded Matt Holliday, and the D-Backs haven't proved a thing, so maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's possible that GM is thinking they can sneak in again next year without wasting money this year and retool after then when Schmidt and Jones free up $20+m without losing an actual useful player.

College Football

College football has an unbelievable regular season, you can't compare it to any other sport, even the NFL,in terms of each game mattering so much. During most years if you lose only one little game you are out of the running for the title. However that amazing regular season where each game is unbelievably meaningful leads to the absolute worst postseason system basically anyone can create.

I'm not going to say that baseball scheduling is fair when some of the interleague rivals (Mets/Yankees) create unfair schedules, but nothing compares to College Football. By creating your own schedule you can put up Heisman numbers against weak competition (Florida played The Citadel?) that will help garner you some votes, if you play in a bad conference it hurts you (USC-can't afford to lose a game), or if you play in a great Conference like the SEC the teams could just beat themselves up. This uneven scheduling affects the postseason because it's system partially relies on votes, mostly biased ones. For example, Texas beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and lost to Texas Tech literally in the last second, yet they rank behind Oklahoma in the Coaches poll who haven't even faced all of the tough Big 12 teams like Oklahoma State yet. What's to stop Texas Tech's coach Mike Leach for voting Oklahoma higher than Texas because his team lost to Oklahoma? Nothing. CFB is actually lucky they have a computer system to fix the some of the voting polls mistakes, by ranking Texas over Oklahoma. Baseball scheduling isn't perfect or fair, but their playoff system usually makes up for it in the end. It's no surprise that college football needs a playoff system (the BCS isn't perfect but it's pretty good and a playoff system would fix it's mistakes) and no surprise that baseball is dare I say obviously better, but could you imagine NL East coaches voting the Mets in over the NL West leader because their division is so bad they don't deserve a spot? Wait, that suddenly doesn't sound so bad.

World Baseball Classic

When they had the first World Baseball Classic, I was admittedly pretty excited. The thought of the United States playing for their country with actual major league players was sweet. Everyone had matchups galore planned in their heads, Arod hitting against Pedro, watching Vlad take his hacks against United States' best among many others. But then Andruw Jones is playing for the Netherlands, Mike Piazza was able to play for Italy if he wanted, and Arod could have played for the U.S. or the Dominican Republic, it became a circus. To add insult to injury theU.S. team was clearly flat, not being able to get to the finals with the best roster. This wasn't a case of an even playing field, the U.S. just didn't care enough and wasn't prepared in March to play some good sound baseball. Maybe things will change but at this point I don't really care about the next World Baseball Classic and I'm wondering who does, Cuba?

So Long Moose

Mike Mussina has officially retired. This shouldn't affect the Yankees offseason plans (if that's the sort of thing you care more about) since they have long assumed Moose would call it quits, and besides maybe a Phillies rumor here and there because of his home in Pennsylvania I hadn't heard any other team quasi-interested in his services. Mike Mussina's Hall of Fame credentials should be a big topic of debate. He is often compared to with Schilling, and maybe they'll retire the same year prolonging the debate (what matters more, Mussina's Wins, or Schillings post-season dominance?).

Pitching in the AL East for his entire career, Mussina retires with 270 wins (.638 winning percentage) and a 3.68 ERA. Not too shabby Moose. Compared to some of his colleagues Mussina is going to be considered slightly worse (Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux...) but he pitched in the American League his entire career where none of those did. Often people ask the question when debating the HoF, was there a period of time where this guy was the best in the business, where everyone was afraid of him? That's a tough question for Mussina because he pitched along side some of the best pitchers in the history of baseball. You can't really say that Mussina is better than any of those mentioned and you can probably add in some others as well, Glavine, Smoltz, andSchilling. Does that mean he doesn't deserve it because some of his peers were better? Or was he good enough in his own right that who he played along side with shouldn't hurt him? What do you think?

Cubs are Thirsty for Some Tea

I criticize the Royals getting Crisp when they have a left and center fielder of course right before I find out that the Royals are rumored to be talking trades with Teahen going to the Cubs. The Cubs have a great team, especially in the NL, but their RF situation is getting testy. Fukudome is a bust anyway you slice it, unless he learns to be a gold glove 2b with those hitting stats (.257/.359/.379). Capable of playing 3b as well as the outfield, Teahen is athletic so apparantly the Cubs like his chances to play RF in the windy Wrigley. It would also explain some hesitation to sign Bobby Abreu who is afraid of padded walls, I can't imagine how he'd like brick walls with Ivy. However, Abreu is a proven commodity for OBP, Teahen besides one great 2nd half in 2006, doesn't fill the Cubs need for a Lefty bat with walks. Fukudome had an OPS+ of 90 this year, Teahen's was 91, not a big upgrade if you ask me. If Fukudome and his good defense can play CF, his bad hitting is more acceptable, but then you'd be banking on a real big increase in production on Teahen. I wonder if part of Teahen's stock is his Moneyball fame and if that still means something to GMs, because if it does it shouldn't. If you happen to be a Royals fan this should be the high point of your reading this blog, back to back Royals posts don't come often.

Royals are Coo Coo for Coco Crisp

The Red Sox traded CF Coco Crisp today to the Royals in exchange for right-handed reliever Ramon Ramirez. The Red Sox slash some payroll and in return get a pretty darn good reliever. Ramirez has a solid year in '06 3.46 ERA in Colorado, then did terrible in '07 8.31 ERA, but at only 26 with no injury the Royals picked him up and he did really well under the radar in KC posting a 2.64 ERA in the AL stirking out 70 in 71 innings pitched. The Sox pen was good not great last year even though with Papelbon and Okajima people just assumed it was amazing. Epstein knows what he's doing. Coco Crisp with Ellsbury the obvious future CF was seemingly expandable since last year and he was finally traded. I guess they are ready to give Ellsbury the reigns and Coco can't replace Manny in LF anymore.

On the Royals side, I'm not sure what they're doing. They have Dejesus in CF (along with Teahen and Guillen on the corners) and neither him or Crisp are long time fixtures in Center for the Royals. The Royals have said they need to get better in OBP, but they have traded for Mike Jacobs and his .290 OBP and now Crisp and his pretty good .344 OBP. I'll assume with rumors of David Dejesus trades that there will be more moves on the way, but Crisp is a player that can help out an already established team that needs some defense in center field. Crisp makes sense for the Yankees, not that the Sox would ever swap with them, but you never know.

So to recap, the Red Sox are slashing some payroll early in the offseason and Mark Teixeira is still waiting to receive an offer. I think we know where this will lead, probably days after Sabathia signs with the Yanks.

Yanks Make Offer to Burnett

While the Yankees wait to hear Sabathia's response to their offer, they offered Burnett a reported 5 year $82m deal. The Yankees are coming out firing and that's probably the best way to do it for them. Ryan Dempster just resigned with the Cubs, and before any other pitchers start signing with other teams the Yankees should snag the guys they want early. Other quasi-interested rivals to the Yankees (Mets, Red Sox) are going to try to make the Yankees spend more money, signing Sabathia and Burnett early could help prevent that. Also, $16m a year for 5 years ain't half bad for Burnett. It's expensive but all pitching is, they're not overpaying him and they're filling a need with a potential ace pitcher, sounds good to me.

The Yankees obvious biggest need is starting pitching (surprisingly their bullpen looks young, good, and flexible), signing 2 top pitchers early in the offseason will allow them the entire rest of the offseason to determine what they want to do with their lineup. If nothing else, a rotation with Sabathia, Wang, Burnett and Joba and their current team as is would put the Yankees in pretty good shape. But without worrying about their rotation if these guys sign early, the Yankees have a long time to decide what to do with Abreu, if they want Teixeira, if they want to trade Cano, and where to find a CF.

Pedroia AL MVP

Dustin Pedroia won the American League MVP today getting 16 first place votes. Unlike the National League where Pujols was the obvious candidate, in the American League it was more up for grabs. Statistically no one dominated, and there was no obvious choice on any of the division winners. That's not to say Pedroia didn't have an excellent deserving year, because he did, he batted .326 2nd in the league, had an OBP of .376, and slugged .493. He was phenomenal on the basepaths too stealing 20/21 bases. He had the 17th best OPS in the league while playing one of the more demanding positions. I think the voters got this one right, it was a rare case where the "team MVP" (or the guy who isn't always deserving but the team loves- Jason Bartlett), actually put up the stats to go along with it, so I can't argue with the choice here. Carlos Quentin seemed to be on the fast track to the award until he injured himself late in the year, and I wonder if the Yankees made a run coming close to the playoffs if Arod would get some first place votes.

Justin Morneau finished 2nd, once again finishing higher than his more deserving teammate Joe Mauer (during Morneau's MVP year where teammates Mauer and Johan Santana were overlooked). Sometimes it's so obvious how RBI predict MVPs. If you are on a playoff team, or a team that just missed and you have gaudy RBI numbers, you're going to finish top 3 just look at Ryan Howard this year. Morneau had 129 RBI, 2nd in the league to Hamilton's 130, yet most of those RBI chances came because he hit behind Joe Mauer and his fantastic .413 OBP. Joe Mauer plays Gold Glove defense, helps his pitching staff, and gets on base at an insane clip considering his defensive position, and Justin Morneau is the beneficiary when it comes to the voting, again.

The MVP awards were both given to the arguably most deserving player this year in both leagues so it's hard to hold a grudge, but that seems more like a case of dumb luck. When one starts looking at all of the voting in both leagues they'll see some obvious question marks that make no sense (Utley 15th, Cy Young Lee less votes than Krod, Morneau over Mauer, Beltran 22nd way behind Delgado, Hanley way behind 2 Mets...), and it makes you wonder how they even got it right.

Cubs Go Dempster Diving

Apparantly the Cubs have re-signed starter-turned-reliever-turned-allstar-starter Ryan Dempster to a 4 year $52m deal. I don't think anyone is expecting Dempster to consistently do over the next 4 years what he did last year, and the Cubs didn't either giving him a pretty fair deal. When Kyle Lohse gets resigned for 4 years $41m, $3m more per year for Dempster seems like a bargain. The huge innings increase in innings (206 2/3 from 66 2/3) could be a cause for injury but if clubs were to not sign any pitcher with any cause for injury they'd be left with nobody on their rotation. I could see Dempster doing similarly to teammate Ted Lilly, being a consistent above average starting pitcher for the Cubs, who don't need an ace with Harden and Zambrano. Dempster is a guy that I wouldn't want my team to sign over some of the other free agent pitchers like Burnett or Lowe, but for the Cubs I think it's a good sign. The Cubs don't need much change on their roster from last year, if they retain everyone and just decide what to do with Fukudome and RF they should be the favorites in the NL again this year.

Byrds and the Bees

At the bottom of a mailbag by Pete Abraham's great Yankee blog, he metions Paul Byrd making perfect sense for the Yankees. I kind of laughed at first, then looked at the numbers and didn't necessarily stop giggling but realized maybe it makes sense. Byrd's kind of the definition of mediocre with a career ERA+ of 104, and slightly under that the last few years. However, Byrd will be cheap and will only require a one year deal. The Yankees are intent on signing Sabathia and one of (or even two of in some rumors) Lowe and Burnett. They need a 5th starter because they learned their lesson on not giving young inexperienced pitchers (Hughes, Kennedy) a job without proving it. Mike Mussina will make his decision soon whether or not he wants to come back, but if it means a shot for 300, who wants to give Moose a 2-3 year deal? Andy Pettitte is also rumored for a last pitching spot, but unless he takes a huge pay cut, like 75% less than what he got last year (1 year $16m), Byrd probably makes more sense. The Redsox acquired Byrd last year, so you know he can't be terrible. In baseball league averaging pitching isn't a given, there is value to pitching mediocre and at 1 year for $2m Byrd is worth a shot to give them some innings or hold the fort until Hughes deserves a shot, and then give more innings after he gets hurt.

Firstie!

Today I received my first comment, popping my proverbial cherry. Hopefully this is the first of many to establish wonderful intelligent dialogue between my readers and me. Anything posted in a form of a question regardless of topic will most likely get answered, so think about that.

Revenge of the Pujols

Albert Pujols won his 2nd MVP Award today, getting some revenge on Ryan Howard for stealing the award away from Pujols in 2006. In talking about the Cy Young Award and why maybe Johan didn't win, I said how people expect greatness from Johan so when he is great it goes a little unnoticed. I think the same or more even can be said about Pujols. Nobody will argue that Albert isn't the best hitter in the game, so when he puts up the best hitting stats in the game nobody is amazed, even though they should be. I was worried that would be a problem in the MVP voting this year, fortunately it wasn't and Pujols won the award.

Howard owns Pujols in the sexy counting stats, beating Pujols in homeruns 48 to 37, and RBI 146 to 116. But a deeper look into the numbers, and not even that deep or sophisticated, Albert destroyed Howard. Howard had more homers, but Pujols slugged over .100 better (.653 to .543), Pujols was laughably better in OBP (.462 to .339) and OPS (1.115 to .882). Albert had the 73rd highest OPS of all time this year and Howard had the 28th best OPS in the MLB 2008. Pujols was 2nd in the NL in AVG and OBP (thanks to a pretty lucky year by Chipper), and first in Slugging and OPS. Any stat that you want to use besides HR and RBI will show that Pujols wins, even defense when you consider Pujols is among the best defenders at his position, and Howard is well a future DH.

Beyond some of the stats there are obvious cases for Pujols. Howard had a great lineup around him with Rollins, Utley, Burrel, and Victorino. These are great hitters that get on base, hit for power, hit for average, and do extremely well on the base paths. Who did Pujols have around him, Cesar Itzturis, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Ludwick? I understand points that say Pujols didn't lead his team to the playoffs, but you could swap Howard for any number of first baseman, and the Phillies would still make the playoffs. If you do the same to Pujols they would lose several more games, Pujols makes a bad team look respectable.

Even though the race wasn't super close, it was still too close. Albert got 18 first place votes, but I'm still amazed how 12 voters still decided Howard was the first choice for MVP. If the Phillies were swept in the first round, would those 12 people still think Howard was more deserving than Pujols? Also, some of the other votes really make no sense. The Mets obviously didn't make the playoffs, yet Wright and Delgado got more votes than Chase Utley. Explain to me this, how does a division winner and by all means the best second baseman by a wide margin in the entire sport get less votes than a 1b and 3b with worse stats (when one considers defense)? Technically I'm glad they got it right, Pujols won the MVP, but looking at all of the voting shows that these writers still have much to learn about baseball.

There's no Tying in Baseball!

So the Eagles and Bengals tied yesterday 13-13 after each team failed to score in the NFL's pathetic overtime. After the game McNabb seemed pretty convincing stating that he never knew there were ties in football, which is surprising considering he was in the league the last time there was a tie. The important part of all this is to illustrate how baseball is better than football, there is no tying in baseball. The Eagles could miss the playoffs because they never got a chance to make their tie a win, how would you feel if you were an Eagles fan? College football overtime is among the most exciting things in sports, especially when it gets to three overtimes and teams have to start going for two. NFL overtime is usually decided by a coin flip, like the Jets and Patriots game this Thursday. An unbelievable end of regulation by the Pats to tie the game in the last seconds, and they don't get a chance to score in overtime. I guess that's fair. Obama said last night on 60 Minutes that the BCS needs a playoff, and he's right, maybe now he'll make a case to change NFL overtime. At the worst though it's just a good argument how baseball is better.

Feeling Lucky?

Surfin the old net today I came across something that is pretty interesting. Already people come out with World Series odds, and the Red Sox are the favorites at 3/1. Browsing the odds some notable ones that maybe are worth a $10 shot:

Florida Marlins 30/1: Surprising they got 30/1 I'd expect them to be worse in the eyes of Vegas. Still, with a young team in the NL that improved after trading Miguel Cabrera if some people take some steps forward (Hermida, Sanchez, Maybin) and the rotation holds up they're a formidable team.

Arizona Diamondbacks 40/1: They play in the worst division in baseball. They have Webb/Haren and assuming those two are healthy all year the team should be at least decent. In that division unless the Dodgers do something huge this offseason, it shouldn't take much to get the D'backs the division. If a few things go there way and their youngins improve they can make the playoffs, and once you're there you never know...

Oakland Athletics 50/1: Billy Beane's A's aren't bad for too long, and in getting Holliday they must think they have a chance for the postseason, or at least a chance to decide if they do until July where they ship off Holliday. They don't have much success in the playoffs under Beane, but at 50/1 you need some luck. UPDATE: with new rumors about the A's looking to sign Furcal, all the more reason to bet on them, incredible upgrade over Crosby.

The Rays last year were at 250/1 at some point, and I'd love to tell you that one of the bottom teams has even an outside shot at winning the World Series but I can't. The Nationals, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Orioles, and Royals don't have near the amount of young major league ready talent the Rays had, but for $10 hey why not?

Offseason Predictions

Now that teams can officially make offers to free agents, here are some more random offseason predictions:

"In the year 2000..."

-The Mets don't sign K-Rod and instead go for Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood which better rebuilds their bullpen. With that said I can't think of any other obvious suitors for K-Rod so I'll say he goes to the Tigers who will finish no higher than 3rd next year, or sleeper pick the Brewers who will have some cash and just lost their closer Torres to retirement.

-I had a joke prediction about Furcal before, I'll give a real one this time saying he goes to the Royals who with their Gil Meche signing proved they will pay some cash for Free Agents.

-The Red Sox sign some Japanese reliever that does unreasonably well and makes the Yankees look bad. The success rate for Japanese relievers doing well their first season or so in the majors is way too good not to try this often, the Yankees should get on that boat, while shipping Igawa on another.

-Raul Ibanez signs with a team that will regret signing him. A bad fielding although consistently good hitting LF, I can't see him doing well, or as well as he has recently, for the duration of his contract. I'll say he goes to the Braves.

-A.J. Burnett goes to the Mets. They swap one risky but potentially great starter in Oliver Perez for another. Oliver Perez signs with the Dodgers. I was going to say the Cardinals until I remembered they laughably overpayed to resign Kyle Lohse.

-Adam Dunn. I've been thinking about this one, and I can't really pick a team that will sign him. I think whoever ends up signing him won't regret it because they would get him knowing how regardless of his negatives his positives help teams win. But I have to make a prediction so he signs with the Mariners. At this point they have to know they need onbase help, they get Dunn to replace Ibanez without losing much fielding, and maybe add Giambi too to patch up their lineup. Their lineup will still probably be mediocre or bad, not because of Dunn, along with their team, but hey its a try. Getting Bedard was a try too and look how that helped them. The more I wrote about this the more Dunn to the Mariners makes sense, so I was kind of lying in the beginning I guess.

Free Agency Begins, Yanks Get Texeira!

That is Kanekoa Texeira, a no name pitcher in a deal that they New York Yankes made today with the Chicago Whitesox. The exciting player in the deal was Nick Swisher, who along with Texeira went to the Yankees in return for Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Marquez is a pretty highly rated pitching prospect for the Yankees who are loaded with pretty highly rated pitching prospects. He missed some time due to injury and struggled a bit in AA and AAA ball this year, but his past reveals some successes. This isn't a future ace the Yankees are trading away, but he's no slouch and someone who could compete for a job on a rotation next year.

Nick Swisher had an abysmal season last year going .219/.332/.410 and that's after leaving Oakland for a homerun park in Chicago. He still drew 82 walks and at 27 years old with no injuries it could have been just a bad flukey season for Swish. The numbers help defend that, with Swisher having a .251 BABIP this season, the lowest of his career after two years of .308 and .287. If those numbers return to form he should be his usual Oakland self hitting for a pretty poor average, good on base and good power, something like .255/.375/.480.

This trade officially ends Giambi's career in pinstripes even at a discounted price to play for the Yankees he's out the door. Moreover, Swisher can play the outfield and some center, giving the Yankees some flexibility at that position. Not a great fielder by any means if Swisher can hit like he usually does his bat can allow him to play CF over Melky and Brett Gardner, making Gardner a really nice explosive guy off the bench. Lastly, if the Yankees don't want Teixeira (the good one) they have a guy for first, and if they do they have someone to use in negotiations to show they aren't desperate for a First Baseman. All in all I'd say the Yankees win on this, unless Wilson Fatemit actually does something.

Cliff Lee Cy Young! What else is new?

Cliff Lee won the Cy Young Award in the AL today, continuing a pretty uneventful award season. So far there has been no surprises unless Lincecum beating Santana blew your mind. It wasn't a close race, but Roy Halladay still got a little love with 4 first place votes to Cliff's 24. Cliff Lee had a remarkable season, and a season that should frustrate amateur fantasy managers next year when he falls back to earth. Maybe he'll win the comeback player of the year, stink next year, and the year after that win another comeback player of the year award. That'd be pretty sweet. Everyone expected Cliff Lee to win this award, and it's not that they're wrong, but a deeper look into the numbers and Halladay is remarkably close. Here is an interesting article written in the middle of September that compared Halladay to Lee. Check out that site too, Fangraphs.com it's sweet.

Barry Bonds

I'm not sure exactly what to write about at 10:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, so why not mention Barry Bonds? I'm pretty sure no team is going to sign Bonds even though he'd still contribute way more than an average player. Teams sign platoon bats to play some OF and DH all the time. The Rays got Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd just for their lefty bat. Adam Dunn gets traded at the deadline and he can barely play any position better than Barry can. Frank Thomas got a multiyear deal from the Blue Jays and he can't even play a position. With that said I'm not too sold on all the teams colluding against Bonds, at least nothing too formal with all of the teams making sure they wouldn't sign him. I think it was one of those things that was understood without talking by all of the owners, don't sign Barry Lamar Bonds. If a team gets Bonds they will suffer a lot of hack for signing a felon bla bla bla, so they would either have to be a good team that'll help them win where winning heals all, or a horrible team in such shambles that Bonds couldn't hurt them. If you're going to take some flack for getting Bonds you might as well talk to Mr. Clemens and see if he'd want to come back too, maybe as a closer. Go for the Gold with some real speculated steroid using doodie brains (that can still contribute). A team like the Marlins that just traded Josh Willingham has a little hold in left field, and with pathetic attendance, signing Barry couldn't really hurt people going to the game, in fact I'd argue it would help. Bonds would also help a team like the Yankees or Mets that will sell seats and make money regardless of Bonds, and being that Bonds is better than say Ryan Church, or Hideki Matsui he'd help them win. Bonds is going nowhere but to court and it's easy for me to say now that I'd want him on my team, but when it would get to be that time to sign him I'd probably get nervous and say no, just like every other team has.

Holliday Trade Analysis (or my attempt at it)

Matt Holliday was traded to the A's for starter Greg Smith, reliever Huston Street, and centerfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Although Billy Beane went into rebuilding mode the last couple seasons trading Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and others, he thinks it's time to start winning. This is all speculation by me (I think it's really good speculation though) but I believe there is reason to believe that Billy Beane thinks there is reason to believe that K-Rod and/or Teixeira won't be with the Angels next year. I'm saying more than just some rumors, that they probably most likely won't be with the Angels, making their team significantly worse. If those two players leave via free agency, with the addition of Holliday the A's have a formidable team ready to compete for the division next year. Beane didn't even give up that much for Holliday, continuing his pretty ridiculous stretch of good trades. Huston Street lost his closing job to Brad Ziegler this year, Carlos Gonzalez had a bad year in the majors this year .242/.273/.361, and Greg Smith although good was nothing special. Regardless if the A's aren't in line to make the playoffs next year in July and Holliday is traded again, they wouldn't have lost anyone that will make them cringe, making this really a no brainer trade.

As for the Rockies? I'm not sure why they made this trade. I think future trades will be following. They have Taveras at CF, and I don't think they would trade a top Leftfielder for a reliever. Street has some value left to a team like the Mets, so I guess we should hold some judgement untill all the trades are over.

In Oakland I would expect Holliday to be around .310/.380/.510, he's been .296/.370/.486 away the last 3 years so a little uptick in those numbers is reasonable. Carlos Gonzalez could blossom being that he was a legit prospect, but I wouldn't expect great numbers next year regardless of the park. Wherever Street ends up if he's healthy he should be a good closer especially if he stays in the JV league. Lastly Greg Smith worries me, he gave the A's great innings (190) for a rookie starter but with a 1.35 whip in a park that leans towards pitchers and with him now going to Colorado I wouldn't expect great future success.

Lincy It Is!

If you happen to be reading this you probably already know Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young Award today. Timmy had 18 wins on a terrible Giants team (leading the NL in winning %), was 2nd in ERA (2.62), and first in strikeouts (265). Obviously impressive numbers, numbers that are deserving of a Cy Young Award. Timmy edged out Johan Santana who had a slightly better whip (1.148), compared to Lincecum's (1.172), and a better ERA (2.53) but had a slightly lower ERA+ at 166 compared to Lincecum's 167. With those numbers it's really a toss-up, and the voters decided on Wins, which they seemingly do way too often. Luckily they didn't vote for Webb who although had more wins at 22, was worse in every other peripheral important category. I personally thought that Johan's end of season where he won his last 9 decisions and pitched a shutout on his last start to keep the Met's chances alive would be enough to give him the award. The Met's bullpen woes clearly hurt Johan's chances and if he snuck out 2 more wins that the bullpen didn't blowI think he would have won. I'd be lying if I said Johan definitely should have won or that I'm mad that Lincecum won, but if I had to vote Johan's performance to end the year proved he was worth his millions abd proved him worthy of another Cy Young.

As an interesting little side note, today I heard Peter Gammons have a good point about this awardearlier, so much was expected out of Johan Santana with his $100m+ contract that voters held him to a higher standard. Obviously that's pathetic for the voters, but I think its true. Everyone expects Johan to be the best pitcher in the league, and when someone else is even with him, in this case Lincecum, that person will get the edge. I could see this playing out with the NL MVP voting with Pujols. I will get into it more when it's time for that, but since Pujols is supposed to be unreal, when he is unreal it goes unnoticed. Let's hope they get it right, but for now let's see if Halladay can make a case against Cliff Lee tomorrow.

ROY

Continuing with Awards season, Geovany Soto and Evan Longoria won the Rookie Of the Year awards in the NL and AL respectively today. This shouldn't surprise anyone. The only competition to Soto was Joey Votto, but putting up the same stats behind the dish playing for a division winner gave Soto the easy win. In the American League it was slightly closer, but Longoria still got every first place vote, easily beating out 2nd place Alexei Ramirez. There is some argument to be made for Alexei being that he played some middle infield, but with Longoria being on a better team, missing some time to injury while still putting up solid stats, and doing well during parts of the playoffs this was still an obvious choice.

Not too much stock should be placed into the ROY. Not that Soto and Longoria are Angel Berroas part II, far from it, but history shows this award doesn't mean future success.

Gold Gloves

Award season started with the dishing out of some Gold Gloves. These are pretty stupid. On paper it would seem to make sense, but the continuing awarding of these to average or below average fielders based on some unfounded reputation really makes them borderline meaningless. Michael Young? C'mon. Carlos Pena won one and he seems like a fine choice but I wonder if the Rays didn't make the playoffs would Pena have been recognized enough to win the award? I've heard a few times that you have to hit to win a Gold Glove, and looking at these it's no different. The people that vote for this can't watch every fielder in baseball, so you have to do something to bring attention to yourself. Being a good hitter (Rollins), and/or having more attention in the postseason on you (Pena) will help get you the attention you need for people to notice your fielding. Kinda seems whacky, but I'm buying it. Does that mean they and the others aren't good fielders? Of course not. But are they the best fielders at their positions based on this year? Extremely debatable. But then again, all you heard during the Rays games this postseason was how Jason Bartlett was the Rays most valuable player and how his defense changed their team, and yet Michael Young won it over him? Does this mean announcers suck (McCarver), or just the award and the people that vote on it? Call it a draw.

Yes We Can!

A good pal and loyal reader (maybe in the future) Jeff alerted me about the Yankees World Series chances in relation to elections. It seems as though the New York Yankees don't do too well with Republicans in the White House. Most people don't, so this shouldn't really be a huge shock, but pretty interesting stuff. I'm pretty sure George loves his Republicans but maybe this will really show his dedication to winning. The real question is what does C.C. think about of all this? Obama can't do it alone.

Offseason

Although the thought of having the whole offseason batting 1.000 on predictions is right up my alley, it's too tempting to not try again. Here I'll give some random offseason predictions.

-C.C. Sabathia signs with the Yankees. Pretty easy pick shouldn't be much arguing here. Yanks need pitching, and there is some truth to the rumblings that the player's union makes players sign for the most money.

-Ben Sheets signs with the Astros. Oswalt/Sheets combo could be enticing and I don't know, I get the feeling Astros don't always know what they're doing (Michael Bourn?)

-Jake Peavy gets traded to the Braves. The Braves haven't gone into full rebuilding mode yet, so why would they now? Their dynasty was built on pitching, Peavy should help them get back to the playoffs, or at least make them think he will.

-Rafael Furcal gets signed by the Yankees and Derek Jeter finally starts his utility role playing a little bit of Left, Center, and First before picking one to stick with until he gets 4000 hits. Wishful thinking? Just a little.

-Erik Bedard gets traded to the Dodgers who lose Derek Lowe to the Yankees.

-Bobby Abreu gets offered arbitration from the Yankees. Luckily the Cubs sign him thinking he is still a walk machine they need.

-Blue Jays and A's fight over Giambi, I don't really care who gets him.

-Mark Teixeira signs with the Red Sox. They have a ton of money coming off the books, and with Ortiz's obvious decline that the Sox clearly notice, Teixeira makes a lot of sense. Sticking it to the Yanks while also being a good move for you team always makes sense.

-Manny Ramirez. I'll say he signs with the Dodgers. I still have some feeling the Orioles will do something, and after losing to hometown hero Teixeira, maybe they overpay for Manny?

That's all for now. With it being the offseason and all, you could probably expect some more in the future as I search for topics.