A few months ago I offered my predictions for the 2011 season, let's take a look back and see how I've done so far:
1.) The Yankees will get into the post season with ease: Well, I probably took it a step to far by saying with ease, but currently the Yankees are 3 games up in the Wild Card, only one game back from the Red Sox in the division lead and, as we all know the Yankees will open up their wallets at the deadline if need be. All in all, I think it's relatively safe to say the Yankees will be playing in the tournament.
2.) The Reds will finish 3rd in the NL Central: Currently the Reds are in 4th place but are only 4 games back from the division lead, albeit 2 games under .500. The standing are too volatile right now to say with any certainty where the Reds will finish, but the point of my prediction was that the Reds aren't all that great, and I think I have a pretty good point. They have some stars (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Stubbs) and a deep rotation, but I'd take a shallow rotation with some very good pitchers over 7 OK ones.
3.) Breakouts: Jay Bruce, Shaun Marcum, Pedro Alvarez, and Cameron Maybin: Meh, I could have done better. Bruce is hitting more homers and helping his fantasy baseball value, but he hasn't been a better baseball player this year. Shaun Marcum has been very good but he was also very good last year, and I wasn't too bold in saying he'd benefit from a switch to the NL. Picking Pedro Alvarez to break out could be grounds for you to stop reading this blog and Cameron Maybin, well, he's been solid but it's safe to say my Breakouts haven't really broken out...yet!
4.) Busts: Carlos Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz, and Josh Hamilton: I've been a little more successful here. Maybe I'm just negative and better at predicting failure over success, or maybe critiquing silly pre-season predictions half-way through the season is stupid, maybe. Anyway, Carlos Gonzalez is a great player and it's nice to see him increase his plate discipline, but he probably won't be competing for any triple crowns this year, or ever rather. Clay Buchholz is a good pitcher but he was very lucky last year, this year he's just been, well, lucky. Last year he had a 2.33 ERA when it should have been about 4, this year it's 3.48 when it should be about 4. Josh Hamilton is really good at hitting baseballs, he's also really bad at staying healthy, and anyone who puts up 8.7 fWAR in 133 games is due to regress.
5.) At least one team will start off hot, get a lot of press and then cool off: Hmm, the Indians started off hot, got a lot of press, then cooled off, they're also still in first place. Time will tell, but I have a good feeling about this one, sorry Tribe!
6.) We know the Royals will stink, but they're going to be historically awful: The Royals are bad, but they're not historically bad and the Astros are actually worse. Plus, even if the Royals start playing historically awful, there is a buzz about the team with the young cavalry entering (Hosmer, Duffy, Moustakas, etc.) that makes this prediction look silly.
7.) Jesus Montero will be an adequate catcher, for the Yankees: Russ Marin surprisingly hit .293/.376/.587 with 6 homers in April holding off any calls for Montero to be called up. However, since April Russ has hit only.184/.294/.289, woof. Montero hasn't been that great himself (and currently is on the 7-Day DL in the minors) but it's clear he's the best option the Yankees have at catcher, and there is still ample time for him to be an adequate catcher for the Yankees this year.
8.) The A's win the division: Wow, this looks bad. Even worse, the Angels are likely going to finish with a better record than the A's. What does that mean to you, you ask? Well, probably nothing, but for me it means I have too cook my 2 roommates a 3-course meal, silly bets!
9.) Ben's Baseball Bias takes the next step: It's hard for this blog to reach a smaller audience, so I have to say this prediction looks very promising!
10.) Nick Markakis will be traded, and then will mash: Definitely a bad prediction, the Orioles seem poised to try to build with this roster, so Markakis will stay there for the remainder of the year but at least Markakis has "mashed" of late hitting .402/.425/.533 since June 8th.
11.) Jose Bautista will hit over 40 homers: Bautista has 29 homers so far, and ZiPS projects him to hit 17 more, barring injury this looks like a safe prediction.
12.) The Red Sox rotation will be dece, but it won't matter: Well, if "dece" means below average the Red Sox rotation has been "dece", ranking 18th in ERA in baseball (4.07). And it hasn't seemed to matter with the Red Sox first in the division. As awesome as Josh Beckett has looked this year, this prediction looks better!
13.) I have no f-ing clue who will win the World Series: This is still true.
After reviewing my pre-season predictions mid-season have we learned any lessons? Yes, that predictions are both a silly exercise and an exercise I plan on continuing because I'm stubborn and it's kind of fun.
