Prospects!

As we inch closer to Opening Day I will have several team and player specific posts regarding the top prospects and minor league systems in baseball, but for now to hold you over I would like to guide you towards the top 10 prospect lists on each team via Baseball America. 

Some things of note:

• The Mariners, Braves, A's and Diamondbacks have a lot of pitching depth. This would explain why trading Pineda "ain't no thang" to the Mariners' future pitching rotation and why the Braves were glad to part with Derek Lowe and have additionally been shopping Jair Jurrjens.
• The Nationals may have traded 3 of their prospects to the A's for Gio Gonzalez, but they kept their top two, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, and both should help the Nationals build a formidable lineup to pair with their strong rotation.
• Either the Mets have one of the strongest systems in baseball or Wilmer Flores is quickly becoming a bust.
• Future, Sweet Player Names:  Didi Gregorius, Bubba Starling, Jon Schoop and Scooter Gennett.

Prince Fielder, Holy Sh*t!

Question: What do you do when your everyday DH gets injured for the season and is still owed $38M until 2014?

Like father, like son. Fat. (Sports Illustrated)

Answer: You go out and sign another DH to a 9-year contract worth $214M!

That solution doesn't seem appropriate to the problem at hand, but nonetheless that's exactly what the Tigers did yesterday when they reached an agreement with Prince Fielder. 

The next question then is, was this a smart decision? The short answer is no - signing Prince Fielder and his body type (5'11'' and at least 275 lbs) to the 4th largest contract in baseball's history isn't likely to produce fine results towards the middle and end of the contract. I'm not sure anyone's body will age like a fine wine, but Prince's may just have an earlier expiration date than most. However, the Tigers are also paying Prince to play right now, and right now the Tigers are trying to win a World Series. As they say, flags fly forever, and Prince should help the Tigers raise a flag in the near future.

By how much though? It's important to note that the Tigers aren't simply upgrading their division winning roster with Prince Fielder, he's replacing Victor Martinez who was pretty good himself last year, as David Schoenfield notes:

2011 Victor Martinez: 91 runs created, 389 outs made, 6.34 runs per 27 outs (595 PAs) 2011 Prince Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs made, 8.29 runs per 27 outs (692 PAs)

If we extrapolate Martinez's 2011 season to 692 plate appearances, we get: 

Martinez: 106 runs created, 452 outs Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs 

In sabermetric analysis, every 10 runs is roughly equal to one win. So Fielder created about 24 more runs while using up 29 fewer outs. That's an extra game's worth of outs for the Tigers, or roughly an additional five runs. So under this very rough cut (leaving aside ballpark effects and so on) we're talking about 29 runs -- or three wins. 

The Tigers won 95 games last year, add the additional 3 wins that they will get from Prince Fielder and they're a 98 win team, and one of the favorites in the American League, right? Wrong. The Tigers run differential last year was that of an 89 win team, making the Tigers a 92-ish win team with the Prince Fielder addition.

Prince Fielder maintains the Tigers edge on division that they had before the Martinez injury, so in the short run it's not necessarily a dreadful signing for them. But 9 years and $214M is a lot of money for a 3-win upgrade, to say the least.

If the Tigers win a slew of pennants or the World Series in the upcoming years they can rationalize to themselves that it's all worth it. Me? I'll believe it when I see it and what I see is the year 2015 with two, $22M+ DHs hoping to get on base at a higher clip than their weight with a fanbase who has long forgotten about a couple of now meaningless division titles.

To change gears for a second, as a baseball fan I am definitely excited by this deal. I'm excited to hear the backlash against Scott Boras. I'm excited to see Miguel Cabrera possibly play third base, a position he played  several years and several pounds ago. And I'm excited to see what Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will do together, which also means I'm excited to read sportswriters ramble about how much this will help Cabrera and bloggers-in-their-mother's-basements argue that assumption.

How many days until opening day?

אֵיפֹה Prince Fielder Going?

Yesterday I had an entire post lined up talking about the Prince Fielder market. It is now safe to say that post is outdated, but I was happy with the headline and I'm going to post it here anyway. A more appropriate Prince Fielder post is coming soon, but for now you are stuck with a brief Hebrew lesson.

And for those of you who did not spend a few months in ulpan in Israel, אֵיפֹה (eyfo) is Hebrew for where.

Quick Thought: Marco Scutaro

The Boston Red Sox traded short stop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for pitcher Clayton Mortensen. I find it a little odd for the Sox to trade a league-average (if not a top 10) short stop when they don't necessarily have a short stop for a decent-at-best-pitcher in Mortensen, but it sounds like this is a move to free up money for Roy Oswalt.

It's not every day that you hear the Red Sox needing to trade away salary to afford bargain priced  Roy Oswalt ($8 million), but it's apparently what's in store. If the Red Sox sign Oswalt, this trade should be fine as they have bigger holes in the rotation over their potential short stop platoon (Nick Punto/Mike Aviles). However, if they don't sign Oswalt, this trade would have to be considered a loss for the Red Sox, because they would have essentially traded their starting short stop for nothing (my apologies Clayton Mortensen).

Jamie Moyer Returns!

YES! After sitting out all of last year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, 49 year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer is now back after signing a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies for an invite to Spring Training

Did I mention that Jamie Moyer is 49 years old? 

I don't know about you but I am very excited by this news. Years ago I was rooting hard against aging, hoping for Julio Franco to play at 50 years old but he had to hang up his cleats after the 2007 season at age 48 when he had little left as a pinch hitter (although he did steal 2 bases so maybe the Mets and Braves just weren't taking full advantage of his skillset). Now, I'm rooting for Jamie Moyer to pitch well enough this year so that he can come back next year and pitch at 50 years old. 

The real question now is, what can we expect out of Moyer this season if he makes the team? I wish I had a good answer but unfortunately there just aren't too many people to compare to Jamie Moyer, a/k/a 49 year old pitchers coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Over his last three years (2008-2010) Moyer had a 4.40 ERA over 470 innings pitched with a pretty darn impressive 97 ERA+ given the circumstances (you know, his age). I'd obviously hesitate to project near league average production from Moyer next year in Coors Field. 

I'm not sure where to put this tidbit so I'll just randomly put it here: In 2010 Jamie Moyer's average fastball velocity was 80.2 MPH. Has there ever been a non-knuckle baller that averaged less than 80 MPH on their fastball? And, will Moyer be the first, or will the Tommy John give him more arm strength like some people claim? Is it possible Moyer will be throwing 90 MPH darts? I doubt it, but I also would have doubted I'd ever see a 49 year old pitching in Colorado. 

Finally, because I sometimes can't let things go: 

Player A:

267 wins, 104 ERA+, 47.3 rWAR

Player B:

254 wins,  105 ERA+, 39.3 rWAR

Explain to me this, why is Jack Morris gaining momentum in Hall of Fame voting again? He's Player B.

Yankees Roundtable!

It's been a little while since I've gathered the Yankees Roundtable gang together, but a big Yankees trade in the midst of what was a quiet offseason is as good a reason as any to start up a conversation with my good 'ole (Yankee) pals Jeff and Steve!

Question:

I'll make this question quick, thoughts on the recent Yankees/Mariners trade and the Hiroki Kuroda signing?

Baseball Player Name Hall of Fame

One of the great things about baseball is its long history which gives us plenty of Sweet Player Names as we already know. However, what I have contributed can only be considered peanuts compared to the work Jon Bois is doing at SBNation.  For the Crème de la Crème you have to check out his Second Annual Baseball Player Name Hall of Fame.

And while you are at it, check out last years inaugural class. Hey, at least we both can agree on Ugly Dickshot! 

Seriously, it's real!

Quick Thoughts: Yankees/Mariners

Last night the Yankee and the Mariners agreed to a four player deal with the Yankees sending potential catcher and "savior" Jesus Montero and  Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and a young pitching prospect named Jose Campos.

Then seemingly 5 minutes later, the Yankees turned around and signed starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year $10 million deal.

Some quick(ish) thoughts:

• First and foremost Brian Cashman played this one pretty brilliantly. After having seemingly everyone convinced the Yankees were doing to have a quiet(ish) offseason and enter the season with a few ?'s in the rotation he goes out and gives the Yankees the best rotation in the AL. Overnight. #stealth
• As I just said, these moves give the Yankees the best rotation (and team) in the AL, at least on paper. Less than 24 hours ago the Yankees had several holes in the rotation and right now they have excess parts to spare. Some combination of Sabathia, Kuroda, Pineda, Nova and Burnett/Hughes/Garcia gives the Yankees a lot of depth and whether they decide to use it as insurance for injury or trade some of it away, the Yankees are going to be well off.
• I would hesitate to say that the Mariners got the short end of the stick in this trade because Jesus Montero is one hell of a building block, but the Padres and A's got 4 prospects for their young pitchers (Mat Latos/Gio Gonzalez) and the Mariners only got one here. Granted, Jesus is better than any of the players the Padres or A's received, but by only getting one guy back the Mariners aren't spreading out their risk.
• I'd be lying if I said I knew about Jose Campos before this deal, but he's not just a throw in. He's young (19 years old), big (6-4), throws hard (~92-95 mph) and struck out 85 batters in 81.1 innings last year in the lower minor leagues only issuing 13 walks. There is obviously no guarantee that he becomes a quality major leaguer, but at this stage in their respective careers, he's a better piece than Hector Noesi.
• The Mariners will likely be smart and try out Montero at catcher but a lot of Montero's value will be tied to him actually staying there. Although there is a chance he becomes a impact hitter like Miguel Cabrera, in which case it doesn't matter where he plays on the diamond (or at all). 
• Pineda has all the tools to be an ace (throws hard and accurate), but we shouldn't jump the gun and call him one just yet. He's definitely an ace against righties, but unfortunately there are lefty hitters out there and Pineda will continue to struggle against them until he develops a passable change-up. 

There is so much more to talk about (each player's respective ball parks certainly play a huge factor) but we'll get to that in a little bit. Overall considering both moves the Yankees did, I have to say it's a win for the Yankees. But, that doesn't mean it's a loss for the Mariners, as Jesus Montero is a damn good prospect. I can't to see how it plays out, how many days until pitchers and catchers?

 

New Logo?

I would be the first to admit that my current logo is kind of silly and horribly made (by me!!!) but you have to admit there is something endearing about it, right? 

Well, if that's not the case, you now have an option to change the logo! I have recently used the services of Horrible Logos, and for the price of one beer I have received a potentially new logo for Ben's Baseball Bias:

I am now leaving it to my loyal viewers, should I make the change?

Murray Chass is at it again!

While I wouldn't like for Ben's Baseball Bias to completely revolve around critiquing other people's articles, sometimes it's just too damn hard to stop, especially when Murray Chass is involved. In his latest blog entry article, Chass talks about next year's Hall of Fame class and what it means for good ole fan boy Jack Morris:

What about next year? Morris’ chances in 2013 could depend on the writers’ reaction to first-timers Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Mike Piazza. [...]Sosa and Piazza have never been convicted by testing or their own admission, but they may find it impossible to overcome the circumstantial evidence that has grown around them.

The only reason Mike Piazza may find it "impossible to overcome the circumstantial evidence that has ground around" him is because of guys like Murray Chass who have created a false sense of circumstantial evidence based solely on random accounts of back acne.

This same time last year, in January of 2011, Murray chass wrote two different blog entries articles stating that Piazza used steroids based off of back acne.

Attention, Mike Piazza fans and other cynics: A report in The New York Times on Saturday about the Barry Bonds perjury case said that prosecutors said that Bonds’ former girlfriend, Kimberly Bell, “would testify to seeing physical changes in Bonds that are indicative of steroid use, including acne on his back and shoulders…” 

If acne is good enough for Federal prosecutors, it’s good enough for me no matter how much Piazza and his supporters scream and whine at my mention of Piazza and the acne that covered his back until it miraculously disappeared when baseball began testing for steroids in 2003 and 2004. 

No one has accused Piazza of perjury, but he better be careful with what he says if he ever has to testify under oath.

Keep in mind that Murray Chass is not a doctor and has no basis to discern the cause of Mike Piazza's back acne. Also, it's safe to say it's juuuuuuuust a tad unfair to site "circumstantial evidence" that is completely based off of your own diagnosis and biases that Mike Piazza used steroids.

Jeff Bagwell is having a tougher time than he should getting into the Hall of Fame because of steroid suspicion without any cause. Unfortunately it's looking like Mike Piazza may have the same problem next year because of hacks like Murray Chass, blogger.

Explain to me again why Murray Chass still has a vote?

What The...?

Player A over the last three seasons: 199.1 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.85 K/BB

Player B over the last three seasons: 191 IP, 1.152 WHIP, 2.78 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.00 K/BB

Player A contract this offseason: 4 Years, $50 Million

Player B contract this offseason: 1 Year, $8.5 Million

By now you realize player A is Jon Papelbon and player B is Ryan Madson, and hopefully by now you realize how the Reds made out like bandits getting Madson and how Ruben Amaro may be regretting his decision to give Jon Papelbon all that cash.

It's true that Jon Papelbon is a more "experienced" closer having saved 106 games in that time frame compared to the 47 that Madson has saved.  But it's also true that the closer is a roll, not a skill, and over the past few seasons, Jon Papelbon and Ryan Madson are very, very similar while on the mound. Apparently the Phillies and Madson had a 4 Year, $44 Million offer on the table, which makes the discrepancy between the two contracts now make a little more sense. However, the bottom line is that the Reds played the closer market perfectly, cautiously waiting for the right deal to come around while the Phillies' felt the need to get their closer ASAP and impulsively offered incredibly large contracts for that service.

The Phillies have an outstanding team in "win-now" mode and Jon Papelbon will likely help the team this year. But there is also that little thing called the future, and next year, when Cole Hamels could be a free agent, do you think the Phillies would like to have a little extra money to lock him up? Me too. 

Jon Heyman Hearts Jack Morris, Hates Logic

Jon Heyman and I can both agree that Barry Larkin is worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, we disagree juuuuuuuust a tad when it comes to Jack Morris. 

Read what Heyman recently wrote regarding Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame:

Morris' detractors generally point to one unextraordinary number, and while it's an important number, it should not define his career. His lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, and his ERA plus of 105 is barely above average. But Morris pitched deep into his games and deep into his middle age, trampling his lifetime ERA. Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score, which enabled him to win more games than anyone else in the '80s and 254 games overall. (The leading winners in the seven preceding decades are all in the Hall.) In seven seasons, he received Cy Young votes. So he had plenty of great years.

Ugh. I am at a loss of things to say. It's not fair to simply excuse Jack Morris' "barely above average" ERA while also giving him complete credit for all of his wins. They go hand in hand, we can't say his ERA would have been better if he retired earlier while also fawning over his career win total which had to happen at the expense of his ERA.

By Heyman's logic, Jack Morris would have a much better ERA if his career ended early, you know before trampled his lifetime ERA. So let's take a look at the numbers.

Jack Morris, if his career ended in 1988 after his age 33 season: 177-118 3.59 ERA, 113 ERA+
Jack Morris complete career: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+

Heyman is right, sort of. While Morris' ERA obviously increased it still wasn't all that great, at least not Hall of Fame great as a 113 ERA+ would still only rank 247th all time. There are a few pitchers who's end of career numbers really derail what was a magnificent peak, but Jack Morris is not one of those pitchers.

The best thing a pitcher can do is to not let runners score and I find it highly amusing that Heyman is ready and willing to throw that all of that out the window because, well, Morris pitched deep into his middle age!

Oh, I almost forgot about the whole "pitch to the score" argument! Did you notice how Heyman says "Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score"? That's because actual evidence would only disagree with Heyman's statement, who woulda thunk it? 


At this point I think Heyman's analysis is suffering as he enters his middle age and I wouldn't be opposed if he retired.

Welcome to the Baseball Hall of Fame Barry Larkin!

On my ballot, there were 6 players worthy of induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame:  Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines and Alan Trammel but this year only Barry Larkin will be getting inducted in Cooperstown on July 22nd. Congrats Barry!

The Results:

Barry Larkin 495 (86.4%), Jack Morris 382 (66.7%), Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%), Lee Smith 290 (50.6%), Tim Raines 279 (48.7%), Edgar Martinez 209 (36.5%), Alan Trammell 211 (36.8%), Fred McGriff 137 (23.9%), Larry Walker 131 (22.9%), Mark McGwire 112 (19.5%), Don Mattingly 102 (17.8%), Dale Murphy 83 (14.5%), Rafael Palmeiro 72 (12.6%), Bernie Williams 55 (9.6%), Juan Gonzalez 23 (4.0%), Vinny Castilla 6 (1.0%), Tim Salmon 5 (0.9%), Bill Mueller 4 (0.7%), Brad Radke 2 (0.3%), Javy Lopez 1 (0.2%), Eric Young 1 (0.2%), Jeromy Burnitz 0, Brian Jordan 0, Terry Mulholland 0, Phil Nevin 0, Ruben Sierra 0, Tony Womack 0.

Observations:

• Jack Morris is gaining momentum and with two years left on the ballot he has a decent chance to get in. On the MLB Network after the announcement of Barry Larkin Ken Rosenthal admitted that although he wasn't a Morris guy, he doesn't necessarily want to end up being "the guy" who didn't let Morris in. That's just pathetic and the sad thing is I'm sure a lot of voters have that mindset, a fear of being different I suppose.
• Jeff Bagwell still has a little ways to go (only 56%) but his future is looking promising with many years left on the ballot. Especially when you consider that the only reason he's not already in the hall is because of suspicions, you have to figure that as time goes by without any steroid implications, Bagwell's totals will increase.
• Tim Raines also has a ways to go but 48.7% of the vote is a nice increase from the 37.5% he had last year. With Blyleven in, all the bloggers in their mother's basement will certainly keep propping up Raines, and this years increase makes his future HOF chances look decent.
• I can't help but think people are voting for Lee Smith because they feel guilty he'll be forgotten since he's no longer the leader in saves. Getting 50.6% of the votes for the Hall of Fame is no small feat and Smith should be proud, but I think he's going to plateau around there.
• Alan Trammell and Edgar Martinez both had solid increases from last year but I fear their totals are still too low to guesstimate their chances.
• I wouldn't vote for Bernie Williams but I'm still glad he stayed on the ballot.
• How did Bill Mueller get 4 votes? As Mr. Angel I could see mustering a vote for Time Salmon, but what did Bill Mueller do to get 4 votes? And Eric Young got a vote? Really?
• Steroids are clearly hurting Palmeiro and McGwire's chances and at this point it's hard to imagine either will ever get in.

Hip Hip, Jorge!

New York Yankees "Core Four" member Jorge Posada is planning to announce his retirement, ending what should be at least a Hall of Fame considerable career.

Jorge is retiring, but it looks like he will
enjoy the extra time off.  Wink wink!

Every once in a while Ben's actual baseball bias comes out but I will make this brief, Jorge Posada was one of my favorite players ever, as evidenced by the fact his jersey is the only Yankees jersey I even own.  I don't care about his poor throwing arm or any problems that AJ Burnett might have had with Jorge Posada as his catcher, for almost decade and a half Jorge Posada was a rock in the Yankees dynasty and undeniably the best hitting catcher in baseball.

Since Jorge Posada became the Yankees every day catcher in 1998, only Ivan Rodriguez has more fWAR (48.7 to 47.2) and only Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza have higher wRC+. While Jorge may not "seem" like one of the best catchers of all time, there is no doubt that is exactly what he has been.  Just because he didn't hit .300 or consistently smack 30 home runs a year, doesn't take away from the fact that Jorge was an offensive beast at the weakest position on the diamond.  

We now have plenty of time to debate Jorge's Hall of Fame case so I won't go there...yet, instead I'll just sit back and recall Jorge's finest moments in pinstripes. Whether it's his double off of Pedro Martinez in the 2003 ALCS (the Grady Little incident) or his solo shot (the only run scored all game) off of Barry Zito in the 2001 ALDS (the Jeter "flip" game), Jorge Posada has had a memorable career and he will surely be missed in pinstripes.