Friday, May 18, 2012

On This Day In Baseball...

As we all know, there are plenty of sweet baseball names ranging from "classic" ball player names like Chipper Jones to the odd ball Stubby Clapp and Johnny Dickshot. On this day, May 18th  let us remember some of those great names who have fallen:

1913: The Only Nolan
1934: Jumbo McGinnis
1952: Spec Harkness
1966: Lee Gooch
1972: Babe Barna
1979: Ray Blades
1986: Spades Wood

1937: Brooks Robinson is born, one of the all-time great third basemen and likely the best fielding third basemen we've ever seen. With Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre considered near-HOF talent, it's a testament to how good Brooks Robinson was considering his 94.6 fWAR completely trumps Rolen (73.6) and Beltre (56.8). 

1946: Reggie Jackson is born. The all-time leader in career strikeouts and post-season clutchness/heroics, Reggie Jackson's career has taken a nice upswing in the era of new-age stats. If you just look at his raw numbers they pale in comparison to some of the 90s sluggers, but considering the context and the era he played in, which we can luckily do with today's stats, we can better appreciate his career. For example, Jackson's career OPS ranks 188 all-time, but his adjusted OPS/OPS+ ranks 78th. Jackson struck out a lot, hit a lot of homers, played on some great championship teams and if you ask him, he'd probably say he's the best player ever. 

1999: Edgar Martinez hits 3 home runs against the Minnesota Twins, tying a record of 5 home runs in two games. The Mariners would only win 79 games in 1999 but not because of Edgar, as he hit .337/.447/.554 in 142 games. Edgar could hit baseballs very well, so well in fact that he's deserving of the Hall of Fame

2000: The Colorado Rockies release relief pitcher Brandon Puffer, we can only assume because he started living up to the reputation of his last name - smoking kills!

Thursday, May 17, 2012

On This Day In Baseball...

Yesterday I pointed out how bad Albert Pujols was doing compared to his former self in 2008, although you can use any year given the slump he's having. And what happened? He hit a home run! Let's see what happens after today's OTDIB!

1919: The Detroit Tigers purchased Dutch Leonard from the New York Yankees for $12,000. In 1914, left-hander Dutch Leonard had a season for the ages for the Red Sox - in 224 2/3 innings and 26 games (25 starts) Leonard was 19-5 with a .96 ERA, and a .886 WHIP. The next two seasons Leonard would pitch pretty well even earning victories in World Series games in 1915 and 1916 for the Red Sox. And if that wasn't enough, Leonard pitched two no-hitters - one in 1916 and one in 1918 against the Detroit Tigers, who probably didn't want to be no-hit again and signed him a year later. Leonard would pitch a few more seasons for the Tigers, having a feud with his manager Ty Cobb, leaving in 1922 and 1923 over a salary dispute to play in an independent league, and returning in 1924 before finally retiring in 1925. Also of note, the hilarity of a player of Leonard's caliber (certainly a pretty good major league) being sold for a mere $12,000.  In today's world Leonard would have signed a $60M deal! 


1925: Tris Speaker gets his 3,000th hit


1970: Hank Aaron gets his 3,000th hit. There seems to be something magical about May 17th and 3,000 hits so what are the chances that Omar Vizquel gets 157 hits today for his 3,000th? 

1978: Carlos Pena is born. From 2001-2006, the former top prospect never played particularly bad, but he was pretty productive posting a 111 OPS+ during that time. Then, in 2007 after playing in fewer than 100 games in the previous two years combined, Pena became the Rays every day first basemen and ripped 46 home runs. Since then, Pena has remained productive (123 OPS+) for the Rays, then the Cubs and now the Rays again. Carlos Pena is a great example of a player with a unique skillset coming with a good pedigree (former top prospect) that wasn't always fully appreciated, and finally excelled once given a full time chance. This year the Orioles are hoping Chris Davis can be that guy.

1994: The Montreal Expos lead baseball with a 53-23 record and the Boston Red Sox are in the cellar with a 30-48 record. Some things would change over the next decade.

2011: Harmon Killebrew passes away. The Killer was an 11-time All-Star, 6-time home run champion en route to 573 homers, MVP and finished with a career 143 OPS+. Not. Too. Shabby. The Killer was an all-time great, but explain to me this - why did it take him 4 years to make the Hall of Fame?

UPDATE:
How did I forget this one?
1998: David Wells throws a perfect game while apparently being "half-drunk" - what a bad fat ass!

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

On This Day In Baseball...

1924: Hall of Fame pitcher Candy Cummings passed away. If you don't know who he is, you at least know what he is famous for - creating the curve ball. Roy Halladay, Gio Gonzalez and Justin Verlander should be thanking Mr. Cummings today, as they have thrown the 3 most effective curveballs since 2010. 

1955: Jack Morris was born. Rumor has it he threw 10 innings in the crib.

1998: The Yankees were 27-9, 3.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the division lead, on their way to 114 victories and the 2nd World Series for the "Core Four".

2002: The Montreal Expos released Henry Rodriguez, who would finish his career with 160 home runs, 139 of which came between 1996-2000. In 1996, at 28 years old on the Expos, Henry Rodriguez hit .276/.325/.562 with 36 homers and 103 RBI with a previous career high of 8 home runs. Jose Bautista who? "Oh Henry" would then play a few more years on the Cubs, Marlins, Yankees (when did this happen?), and finally the Expos who released him on May 16th 2002. Fun fact: There have been two Henry Rodriguez's that have played in the MLB and both have played for the Expos or the Ex-Expos a/k/a the Nationals. 

2009: Albert Pujols was batting .320/.423/.664 with 13 homers and 37 RBI.

2012: The Dodgers lead baseball with 24 wins, Albert Pujols is batting .212/.248/.288 with a 53 OPS+. 

Monday, May 7, 2012

Quick Thoughts

Mariano Rivera's injury obviously can only hurt the Yankees, but it will be very interesting to see how life after Mo will be like in New York. Further, it will be very intriguing to see how it will affect the discussion of closers in baseball. As Aaron Gleeman has said countless times, closing is a role not a skill, and how David Robertson does in that role should play a part in that conversation. If/when David Robertson is successful in the 9th inning, the same way he's been in the 8th inning, hopefully we can end the idea of closers needing experience. Every successful closer started without experience, just saying. 
SAFE!

What has gotten into the Baltimore Orioles? They are 19-9, leading the vaunted AL East with a run differential that supports their record. Baseball Prospectus has their playoff odds at only 4.5%, but is it time that we start taking them seriously? Color me skeptical, as there are often surprise teams early on that don't last, but clearly the Orioles are better than we expected and we should respect them from here on out. 

Bryce Harper looks like he belongs in the big leagues. Easily. That doesn't mean he's going to light up the league at 19 years old, but we don't need more than a week of watching to realize he's ready for primetime. I guess that happens when you steal home, after going first to third on a single, after being hit in the back as a "welcome to the big leagues". Not too shabby. Harper's teammate Jayson Werth however, isn't looking so good after breaking his wrist last night. He should be out for the next 12 weeks and Bryce Harper may have to  single-handedly keep this lineup afloat as Werth and Morse are out with injuries. 

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

April in Review

With April in the books let's take a look at some interesting numbers that may or may not continue.

"April, Shh! If you bring up LaHair's BABIP it might regress!
.600 That's Bryan LaHair's BABIP this year. Bryan LaHair is an excellent story - a career minor leaguer who has taken his first chance at 29 years old to prove himself, and is running away with it. However, we might expect him to take a few steps back as a .600 BABIP just isn't sustainable. Does this mean LaHair's Cindarella story is doomed to be a Pumpkin once the clock strikes midnight, or in this case, May? Certainly not as he's hitting the ball very hard (25.7% line drives) and walking (in 14.3% of his PAs), but anyone taking bets that he'll continue to bat .390 should reconsider their gambling habit.

0 Home Runs. Will Albert Pujols finish the year with no homers? No. Will Albert Pujols have an off year? It's possible as his plate discipline has eroded over the last year and a half. The long-term issue at stake here isn't if Albert Pujols is going to half an off year but if this is who he is - a great hitter but not the top, top tier that he's been. When the Angels (or anyone) signs a veteran player like Albert Pujols, they aren't expecting sustained performance for the duration of the contract (unreasonable) but they are expecting peak performance during the beginning of the contract (reasonable). It's sort of like a tax to acquire top talent, you buy yourself a window to win the World Series, and pay for it later. I don't feel confident saying that a 32 year old Pujols in a new league and far away from his family is guaranteed to play like a 27-year old Pujols, but I do expect him to get on track.

100% LOB Lance Lynn is a good pitcher, but something tells me he won't strand every runner this season. His ERA isn't zero because he's given up a few homers, but none of those have come with men on base. 

.566 wOBA Matt Kemp might have already locked up the MVP (although Ryan Braun did some catching up last night) but I don't think he can do his Bondsian impression for an entire year and finish with a wOBA over .500. Matt Kemp has kept up his promise of letting "beast mode of its leash" thus far this season, completely dominating the league and although getting a 50-50 might be an unrealistic goal, I think we're looking at the best player in baseball right now and I don't see that changing this year. 

9 GB It's May 1st and the Angels are only 8-15 and 9 games back in the division. Part of that is Albert's fault, but even with his struggles the Angels shouldn't have the second lowest wOBA as a team in the league. They might have already played themselves out of the division title, as Texas looks very, very good and has too large of a lead even this early but one month shouldn't completely change how we looked at the Angels in March. I still expect them to hang around until the end, battling for one of two wild card spots.

.696 Dodgers Winning % Matt Kemp is very good. Clayton Kershaw is very good. Andre Ethier is pretty good. That's about all the Dodgers have right now. Yes, it's possible to make the playoffs (and do damage while there) with 3 stars and nothing else, but the Dodgers don't have enough stars. They do have a potentially great bullpen though if Mattingly realizes that Kenley Jansen is their best reliever and if Shawn Tolleson gets a chance this year. Take a look at his numbers in AA this year: 10 IP, 18 SO, 6 hits, 3 walks, 0.90 ERA. Add it all up and the Dodgers are a pretty good team, but not a team that can win 113 games and not necessarily a team we should expect to even win the division.

There are so many more little nuggets to uncover after the first month of the season but I'm going to arbitrarily stop here. If there are any important or interesting things that I didn't touch on or you would like to bring up please leave a comment - I'd love to see what you come up with!