26 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 26 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 26:

• In Hebrew, each letter has a numerical value and Gematria "is the calculation of the numerical equivalence of letters, words, or phrases, and, on that basis, gaining, insight into interrelation of different concepts and exploring the interrelationship between words and ideas." Anywho, 26 carries some significance in that it signifies the proper God of Israel, YHWH. Take from that as you will, I say it's a sign that today will be a good day and the 2013 baseball season will be fantastic.
• Billy Williams of the Cubs, Rangers manager Johnny Oates and the Angels founding owner Gene Autry all have jersey number 26 retired.
• If you were to run 26 miles (and some change) you would have run a marathon. Congratulations!
• In 1926 the Cardinals beat the Yankees in the World Series in seven games. In game six, Cardinals starter Pete Alexander pitched a complete game victory for the win and the following day relieved Jesse Haines to record the last 7 outs, winning the World Series. Impressive performance for the 39-year old future Hall of Famer. St. Louis Catcher Bob O'Farrell won the MVP in the NL and Cleveland Indians first basemen George Burns (not that George Burns) won the MVP in the AL batting .358 with 64 doubles, the second most in baseball history.  
• Unsurprisingly in 1926, Babe Ruth led the league in runs (139), home runs (47), RBI (146), walks (144), on base (.516) and slugging (.737). At that point in his career Ruth was 31 and hit 356 home runs, he had 358 more left in him. 
• Paul Konerko and Aaron Hill hit 26 home runs last season. Considering Konerko plays first base and Aaron Hill second base, it's safe to say Hill had the better season. However, did you know that Konerko has 422 home runs? If Konerko were to get to 500 home runs would he have a Hall of Fame case? I'm not one to vote in someone just on milestones, but it would be an interesting debate. What say you? 

The Morse Trade

Mike Morse is the biggest name in the recent three-way trade that sends him to Seattle, catcher John Jaso to Oakland and prospects to Washington. However, when you consider all of the angles he's probably not the best player in the deal as that would be John Jaso.

I won't talk too much about John Jaso because Dave Cameron already has and it's safe to say I won't top his analysis. Although Jaso isn't a full time player (struggles mightily against lefties) you should be aware that last year in 361 plate appearances Jaso hit .276/.394/.456 with 10 home runs and 50 RBI. As Cameron noted, Jaso's never displayed that type of power before, but he's always had terrific plate discipline.  For his career Jaso has 140 walks with only 128 strikeouts, that's pretty special and should continue regardless if Jaso is hitting more balls in the gap or over the fence. Anyway you want to slice it, a catcher with a career .359 OBP and 116 OPS+ has a lot of value, even if he doesn't play every day. The A's know that and traded three prospects for his services. It doesn't need to be said, but it's a typical Billy Beane trade. 

Meanwhile, in return for John Jaso (a popular breakout pick!) the Mariners receive ex-Mariners and ex-Nationals slugger Mike Morse. Morse spent five years in and out of the majors before playing well at the end of the 2010 season for the Nationals finally breaking out in 2011 hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 home runs. Last year Morse started the season on the DL with a strained back, only playing in 106 games while hitting .291/.321/.470. Morse has above average power and can really rake it to the opposite field which should help in Saefco. But, and it's a pretty substantial but, John Jaso is cheap and under team control for the next three seasons while Morse is being paid over $6 million in 2013 and can be a free agent next year. 

The Mariners have likely pointed to Jaso's career splits and their youngin' Jesus Montero and called Jaso a part-time player for them, and they would probably right. However, Morse has had 500 plate appearances just once in his career -- relying on him to be an every day player in comparison to Jaso isn't necessarily a responsible conclusion to make. 

I like this deal for the A's, trading pitching prospects on a team with plenty of young, pitching depth for a catcher who might lead the team in OBP has to be considered a smart move. I also like this trade for the Nationals as Morse didn't have a spot on the team once the Nationals signed Adam LaRoche.  But as far as the Mariners are concerned, I'm not a huge fan of the deal. The Mariners have lacked punch in the lineup for several years, something that Morse can help with but they also acquired Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales this offseason and Justin Smoak may yet become something and Jesus Montero might not stay at catcher. I suppose this trade illustrates confidence they have in Montero which is certainly a good thing and I hope he works out for the Mariners. However, I just can't get it out of my head that since 2010 Morse has a 5.7% BB% and a 22.1% K% --that's not the type of plate discipline that you like to see out of players entering their 30s with a spotty injury history to boot.

The chances of this deal really backfiring on the Mariners in any truly meaningful way might be slim but still, color me skeptical on this deal for the M's, a win for the A's and a win for the N's. 

27 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 27 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 27:

Mordecai Brown's pitching hand. (Wikipedia)

• There's the 27 Club, all of the musicians who have died at age 27. It's not necessarily a list you'd want to be on but if you find yourself on such a list, you're in good company -- Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Jimi Hendrix, Kurt Cobain and several others. It just so happens that I turn 27 this June, I suppose I better get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames. 
• While many baseball players peak at age 27, it might be somewhat of a fallacy. 
• Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez, Matt Holliday A.J. Pierzynski and Garrett Jones hit 27 home runs last year. I've already forgotten how good Aramis was last year, hitting .300/.360/.540 with a 142 wRC+ as well as contributing with the glove leading to 6.5 fWAR, the highest mark of his career. So maybe players peak at age 34 not 27? 
• These countdowns have been littered with the Yankees (Hint: they were a pretty good baseball team back then) and 1927 won't change that trend. The '27 Yankees finished 110-44, winning the AL pennant by 19 games and the team featuring Murderers' Row is considered to be one of the best teams of all time. That team scored 975 runs and had 5 players with an OPS+ of 125 or greater. Babe Ruth hit .356/.486/.772 and belted 60 home runs while Lou Gehrig won the MVP batting .373 and leading the league with 175 RBI. Center fielder Earle Combs batted .356 and hit 23 triples. As a team the Yankees had a 127 OPS+ and a 122 ERA+. They scored 131 more runs than the next best team in the AL and allowed 103 fewer runs than the next best team. Unsurprisingly they won the World Series, sweeping the Pirates in 4 games.  
• Paul Waner of the Pirates batted .380 in 1927 while also leading the league in hits, triples and RBI en route to a MVP in his second season in the majors. Waner wouldn't win another MVP but he finished his career with 3,152 hits and a .333 career average. Waner was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1952 and was apparently nicknamed Big Poison. The nicknames we have in today's game are sub-par. If I'm a Pirates fan I'm bringing Big Poison back for Andrew McCutchen. 
• Carlton Fisk (Red Sox), Catfish Hunter (Athletics) and Juan Marichal (Giants) all wore #27 and have had their numbers retired. In 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn pitched in one of the better duels of all time. Check out the boxscore.
• In 1893, George Davis hit 27 triples but didn't lead the league because Perry Werden hit 29 of his own. Werden started as a pitcher in 1884 at age 22 going 12-1 with a 1.97 ERA but an arm injury forced him to change positions. He ended up playing first base regularly in 1890 for the Toledo Maumees of the American Association. In 1894 and 1895, playing for the Minneapolis Minnies in the minor leagues, Werden hit 88 home runs. However, if you take a look at the roster from that season everyone was hitting home runs, something tells me the Minnies stadium had some short fences. Nonetheless, it's still a cool story, bro!
• In 1988 Vince Coleman stole 81 bases, but he was also caught 27 times. Over his first six seasons, from 1985-1990, Coleman stole 549 bases averaging 92 steals a season. I hope Billy Hamilton can do a decent Vince Coleman facsimile for the Reds whenever he gets called up, that would be fun to watch.
• In 1909 Mordecai Brown won 27 games for the Chicago Cubs. Mordecai was nicknamed Three Finger because he really only had three fingers on his pitching hand due to an accident as a child growing up on a farm in Terre Haute, Indiana. Three Finger was on the Cubs in 1908 when they won the World Series, finishing 29-9 with a 1.47 ERA and as you know, the Cubs haven't won since. Brown was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1949. When life throws you lemons, make lemonade and when life cuts off your fingers, use it to your advantage to throw a wicked curve ball. 

28 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 28 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 28:

• BJ Upton hit a career high 28 home runs last year for the Rays. This offseason he signed a 5-year $75.25 million deal with the Braves. The Diamondbacks have dangled Bossman Jr.'s brother, Justin Upton in trade talks and count me as someone who would love to see an Upton/Upton/Heyward Outfield. That's Fantasy Baseball gold, with a high chance of some fools goldyears thrown in as well. 
• What do Adam Dunn, Pedro Alvarez, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Danny Espinosa and Curtis Granderson have in common? They all struck out at least 28% of the time. That's a lot of strike outs but it's also decent production as five of those players had a wRC+ of 108 or greater.
• In 1928 the Yankees swept the Cardinals in the World Series, Mickey Cochrane won the MVP  for the Philadelphia Athletics in the AL and Jim Bottemley won the MVP for the Cardinals. Bottomley had quite a season, leading the NL in home runs (31), triples (20) and RBI (136). Cochrane however, was pretty mediocre for the Athletics, only batting .293/.395/.464 in 131 games. Meanwhile, on the first place Yankees Babe Ruth batted .323/.463/.709, leading the league in home runs and RBI and Lou Gehrig batted .374/.467/.648. Neither Ruth or Gehrig received a single vote for MVP while their teammates Tony Lazzeri and Waite Hoyt received a few votes which sounds strange but it's because of an old rule. At that time a player could only receive a League Award once in his career, and since Ruth and Gehrig had previously won the award they were ineligible to win it again. 
• Whitey Ford was born in 1928. Ford finished with a 236-100 record and pitched in game one of the World Series in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1964. That's pretty cool. Ford's Win-Loss %  ranks 3rd all time behind Spud Chandler and Al Spalding. Yes, that is the Spalding from the sporting goods company. While Albert Goodwill Spalding is famous for his company, it should be noted that he led the league in wins from 1870-1876. In 1874, Spalding went 52-16 in 617.1 innings pitched. It was a different game back then. I wonder what glove he used. Rawlings? 
• On November 26, 1928 Butts Wagner died. Born Albert Wagner in 1871, Butts was Honus Wagner's older brother. Butts debuted in 1898 at age 26 and never saw the diamond again. I don't know if there was a Fredo/Michael Corleone thing going on with the Wagners, but it's safe to say that Honus was the better player. 
• Only one team has retired jersey #28 and that is the Twins and Bert Blyleven. Blyleven was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2011. 
• Pitchers have won 28 games 33 different times but Dizy Dean did it most recently in 1935. From 1932-1937 Dean won 133 games, a MVP aware and went to four all-star games. In the 1937 All-Star game however, Dean was hit by a line drive injuring his foot. As a result, Dean was forced to change his pitching motion, unable to land on his foot the same way as before and unfortunately Dean was never the same. Still, Dean is in the Hall of Fame and has one of the better names in baseball. 

BREAKING: Leaked Lance Armstrong Interview Question

I won't name my source but I've received a snippet from Lance Armstrong's interview with Oprah:

OW: Lance, could you describe the era?
LA: Oprah, as I had said before, it was such a loosey-goosey era."

Just like Major League Baseball in the early 2000's, or more specifically the Texas Rangers clubhouse, or even more specifically in Alex Rodriguez' locker, it was very "loosey-goosey."

The Baseball Hall of Fame

The 2012 Hall of Fame ballot was loaded. In fact, there were so many worthy players that it sparked a conversation about expanding the ballot, which currently limits voters to only voting in 10 members.

So naturally, 10 guys made the Hall of Fame, right?

Wrong. As I'm sure you are all aware, nobody was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) decided that nobody was worthy of having a speech in Cooperstown this year. This is especially odd considering that according to bWAR the 2nd, 36th, 52nd, 61st, 67th, 68th, 71st, 74th, 88th, 106th, 117th and 127th best hitters in baseball history were on the ballot, along with the 3rd and 26th best pitchers of all time. None of them were elected by the BBWAA. 

As far as I'm concerned this is because of the following reasons:

• Steroids - Anyone guilty (Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, etc.) or just wrongly associated (Piazza, Bagwell) with steroids couldn't garner enough support.
• 10 ballot minimum - While this wouldn't be an issue for voters who refuse to vote in anyone associated with the "steroid-era", those who would vote for Bonds, Clemens, et al might not have enough room on their ballot for other potentially deserving players like Larry Walker or Kenny Lofton, hurting their chances. 
• Distinguishing between "First Ballot Hall of Famers" and just a regular Hall of Famer - There is no such thing as a first ballot Hall of Famer and a regular Hall of Famer. Anyone deserving of the Hall, deserves to be inducted the first go around. Why wait?
• Stubbornness - Every voter is entitled to their opinion, but anyone deciding that Jack Morris, Dale Murphy or Lee Smith is a Hall of Famer but Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell aren't is just holding onto the past. Don't blame the internet on Jack Morris not receiving enough votes, blame his spotty resume. 

On one hand I'm a little baffled that this happened but on the other, it's not a surprise given the history of the BBWAA. There are people eligible to vote that no longer follow the sport, why do they deserve a say in the matter?

In 1936, the first year of the Hall of Fame, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner were elected. None of those players received 100% of the vote and it has remained that way since. Just because a few voters in 1936 decided not to vote in Babe Ruth doesn't mean that nobody deserves 100% of the vote. If you are a worthy Hall of Famer, you are a worthy Hall of Famer. When you put weight into what occurred in 1936 and/or distinguish "First Ballot" Hall of Famers from the rest of the pack, you get results like this and it's pretty safe to say that it's both bad for the Hall and for baseball.

I suppose if you wrote about baseball in 1992 but have since worked for Golf Digest you might resort to that sort of lazy analysis but then I'd also question the integrity of you having a vote. 

While the electorate is likely trying to protect the integrity of the Hall of Fame their stubbornness is actually hurting the same sport and museum that they wish to protect. 

I'll admit that I'm more of a "big" Hall guy in that I'm more lenient in who I would allow in Cooperstown and it's because I believe the Hall of Fame should have a pulse and be a living and breathing thing. When the BBWAA decides that nobody is going to Cooperstown they essentially take away its pulse, and it's life.

I'm obviously a huge baseball fan but I haven't been to Cooperstown since I was about eight years old. I also live in New York, which makes the trip to Cooperstown not a particularly long journey. With all of that said, I don't have any huge need or want to go back and the voters aren't giving me any reason to change my mind. 

34 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 34 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 34:

• Jay Bruce hit a career high 34 home runs last season but also saw his strikeout rate increase and his walk rate decrease slightly. Over the last three seasons Bruce has been about 20% better than the average hitter which is certainly nice but the Reds would like to see Bruce become a star rather than a Nick Swisher. 2013 will be an important year for Bruce, let's see if he can take the next step. 
• In 1934, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. The MVPs of both leagues matched up in the World Series with Mickey Cochrane winning the award on the Tigers at catcher and Dizzy Dean winning the National League MVP for the Cardinals as a starter. The Yankees finished second in the American League, so Lou Gehrig only finished 5th in the MVP voting. This was despite Gehrig hitting .363 with 49 home runs and 165 RBI. Gehrig walked 109 times with only 31 strike outs. Dizzy Dean won 30 games for the Cardinals in 1934, a feat that wouldn't happen again until Denny McLain won 31 games for the Tigers in 1968. Something tells me we won't see that again.
• Hank Aaron, Roger Maris, Luis Aparicio, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline and Bud Selig were born in 1934.
• The 34th President of the United States was Dwight Eisenhower. Eisenhower won 442 electoral votes to Adlai Stevenson's 89. Richard Nixon was his running mate. 
• The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both retired Nolan Ryan's #34 and the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers both retired Rollie Fingers' #34 jersey. Nobody can wear #34 in Minnesota either as the Twins retired Kirby Puckett's jersey. Speaking of Nolan Ryan, from age 40-46 Ryan was 71-66 with a 3.33 ERA and a 116 ERA+ with 1,437 strikeouts over 1,271 innings pitched. Not bad for an old man. For comparison's sake, over those same ages Jamie Moyer was 94-70 with a 4.36 ERA/100 ERA+ with 814 strikeouts over 1,386 innings pitched.
• Cy Young and Kid Nichols won 34 games in 1893. Both pitchers threw a combined 847 innings with only 196 strike outs. CC Sabathia finished 14th in the league in strikeouts with 197 this season. Although it might have been the dead ball era, a lot more balls were put into play. Kid Nichols led the league with a 1.28 whip a mark that would have ranked 53rd among qualified pitchers in 2012. Do you think team defense has improved since 1893? 
• In 1912, Ty Cobb was caught stealing 34 times. I don't think Detroit minded too much though as Cobb batted over .400 for the second year in a row finishing with a .409/.456/.584 line. Cobb only finished 7th in the MVP voting.
• Hakeem "the Dream" Olajuwon's #34 jersey is retired by the Houston Rockets. Here are his greatest hits.
• In 1884 and 1885 Old Hoss Radbourn threw 34 wild pitches. His Twitter account is phenomenal. 
• In 1997 Craig Biggio was hit by 34 pitches. Craig Biggio should be in the Hall of Fame.  

35 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 35 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 35:

• Josh Willingham had 35 home runs last year and posted a 143 wRC+ for the Twins, the 10th best in baseball. Who knew?
• In 1935, Parker Brothers released the board game Monopoly. I have one question for all of you - are you a fan of trading immunities? Any other good house rules? 
• The first Orange Bowl was played on January 1, 1935 where Bucknell beat Miami 26-0. 
• Hank Greenberg won the MVP in 1935, leading the league with 36 home runs and 170 RBI. The Tigers would go on to beat the Cubs in the World Series even though Hank Greenberg only played in two games.
• In the National League, Cubs star Gabby Hartnett won the MVP batting .344/.404/.545 with 13 home runs and 91 RBI. Arky Vaughn played SS and batted .385/.491/.607 but only finished third in MVP voting. The Pirates didn't make the postseason because well, only one team made the post season that year which I guess disqualified him in the voters minds from wining the most valuable award. Not much has changed in 2012. #MikeTrout
• The Cy Young Award was introduced in 1956 but Boston had two good choices for the award if it was around in 1935. Wes Ferrell pitched 322.1 innings with 25 wins and Lefty Grove threw 273 innings leading the league with a 2.70 ERA. With all that said the Red Sox still only finished fourth in the American League. The Curse of the Bambino was fun while it lasted. 
• Randy Jones, Phil Niekro and Frank Thomas have had their jersey #35 retired by the Padres, Braves and White Sox respectively. In 1974 Randy Jones went 8-22 with a 4.45 ERA. In 1975 he went 20-12 with a 2.24 ERA. That's a pretty good turn around. 
• John F. Kennedy was the 35th President of the Unites States. He was assassinated on November 22, 1963, the same day the Beatles released With The Beatles. You can listen to the entire album here. You can watch the assassination here.
• In 1985 Jim Rice grounded into 35 double plays, the second most of all time. Who was number one? Jim Rice in 1984 when he grounded into 36 double plays. 
• What do Jim Devlin, Red Donahue, Pud Galvin, Hardie Henderson, Fleury Sullivan and Adonis Terry have in common? They have all lost 35 games in a season.
• Here's the crew for Nasa Expedition 35 which leaves in March, 2013. Chris Hadfield was the first Canadian to walk in space. 

36 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 36 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Here are some interesting facts about the number 36:

• Adrian Beltre was the only player in baseball to hit 36 home runs last year. Since 2010 only four hitters have had more Wins Above Replacement (according to fWAR) than Beltre - Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera. That's some good company.
• During his age-36 season in 2001 Barry Bonds hit .328/.515/.863 with 73 home runs. 
• In 1931 at age 36, Babe Ruth hit .373/.495/.700. His OPS+ was 218, which means  he was 118 percent better than the average hitter according to OPS. For what it's worth, in 2001 Bonds' OPS+ was 259, which was only the third best of his career. 
• Nine pitchers have had 36 wins in baseball with Walter Johnson in 1913 being the most recent. That year Johnson went 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA. Johnson led baseball in wins, ERA, innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, strike outs and WHIP. Unsurprisingly he won the MVP. The other notable pitcher to win 36 games was Cy Young. 
• In 1936 Lou Gehrig won the MVP, the second of his career while batting .354/.478/.696 with 49 home runs and 152 RBI. 1936 also happened to be Joe DiMaggio's rookie year. The Yankees would win the World Series in 1936 and again in 1937, 1938 and 1939. Not a bad start to a career for the Yankee Clipper.
• Gaylord Perry and Robin Roberts both wore #36 and have had their number retired by the Giants and the Phillies respectively. 
• There are also 36 chambers in the Wu-Tang.
• One uses 36 candles over the 8-days of Hannukah.
• Lyndon B. Johnson was the 36th President of the United States. He died on January 22, 1973, the same day the Supreme Court made it's decision on Roe v. Wade.
• Driving along U.S. Route 36 looks like a beautiful ride, until you leave Colorado and have to go through Kansas. Woof. 
• 1936 was a leap year. The Hoover Dam was completed, Hitler occupies the Rhineland, Jesse Owens won the 100 meter dash in Berlin and FDR won the presidential election in a close battle with Alf Landon, narrowly escaping with a 523-8 electoral college victory. 

2013 Predictions

With 2013 upon us I figured I would list 13 (mostly) baseball related predictions for the year 2013:

1.) Someone will predict the world is going to end. Again. The Mayans were either wrong or we were silly to assume they wouldn't just restart their calendar. I say both and since the Maya civilization is long gone, someone or some group will claim 2013 is the end. Let's hope they're wrong, or are at least mildly amusing fodder as we wait for the subway train to arrive.

2.) The Orioles will finish last in the AL East. Although they won 93 games, the Orioles finished with just the third best run differential in the division last year and something tells me that the Blue Jays are going to be better this year and that the Red Sox won't be that bad again. For lack of a better word, the Orioles were pretty lucky to win as many games as they did last season and they haven't done anything this offseason to improve the squad. Their biggest strength last year was the bullpen, and we all know that those things can be pretty fickle year-to-year. The worst team in the AL East might be better than some division winners, I'm not suggesting that the Orioles are a bad team, but I don't think their magic will return in 2013. 

3.) The Blue Jays will be good, but depth might be an issue. 162 games is a long time and while I don't doubt that the Blue Jays have the best starting roster on paper in the division at the moment, I wonder if the Jays will have the ability to weather a bad case of the injury bug if one were to occur. I'm looking at you Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson. 

4.) 2013 Breakouts: 

• John Jaso: In a way Jaso already broke out last year when he it .276/.394/.456 with a 143 wRC+ in 108 games for the Mariners but 2013 will be the year where people notice. It will be a little tough since Jaso can't hit lefties and won't receive 500+ PA, but Jaso might be the most underrated catcher in baseball when facing right handed pitching.
• Matt Wieters: Over the last two seasons Wieters has been worth over 9 wins, so he's definitely doing something right, but 2013 will be his true breakout. Wieters is a solid fielder behind the dish, can hit for power, can hit a ball the other way, takes a walk and doesn't strike out much. I don't think the Orioles will have a great season in 2013, but I do think Matt Wieters will.
• Starlin Castro: Although Castro increased his power output (.147 ISO) he still had a disappointing year at the plate. However, Castro won't turn 23 until March of this year and there is a lot to like about an every day SS who is an above average hitter at such a young age. Castro has proven that he has a solid floor (3+ WAR) and with a slight increase in production at the plate and/or the field Castro could be an all-star.  
• Jean Segura: Segura's real life value will largely be dependent on how well he plays SS for the Brewers. I'm not necessarily qualified to predict how he will do with the glove so consider this breakout mostly fantasy baseball related. Segura has an above average hit tool and great speed and with consistent playing time as the everyday SS for the Brewers, Segura has a chance to mimic Elvis Andrus at half the cost. 

5.) 2013 Busts:

• Mark Trumbo: 30 home runs is always nice but horrible plate discipline isn't too sexy. Kendrys Morales was traded to ensure playing time for Trumbo, but without a real position on the Angels and a propensity to make a lot of outs I don't predict 2013 will be Trumbo's finest season. There is also this: Mark Trumbo 2012: .268/.317/.491, 6.1 % BB%, 26.1 % K%, 122 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR. Chris Davis 2012: .270/.326/.501, 6.6% BB%, 30.1% K%, 120 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR. 
• Jered Weaver: Weaver's ERA has consistently out performed his peripherals and he is certainly one of the best pitchers in the game but last year his strike out rate was the lowest since 2007. He also spent time on the DL for the first time since 2007. Weaver is an excellent pitcher, and has been for quite a while but I have a feeling in 2013 the peripheral stats carry more weight. 
• Aroldis Chapman: It's not that I feel Chapman will be a bust but I don't believe he'll necessarily have a 1.50 FIP again. I also don't trust Dusty Baker with pitchers still, and considering the Reds and/or Dusty can't fully make up their mind on having him in the rotation or the bullpen, 2013 might be a let down for Chapman.

6.) The Mets on the field future will look bright but ownership will not. David Wright had a resurgent 2012 and is locked in for the future. Jon Niese and Matt Harvey are both young, cheap and have shown success in the major leagues. Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he should take the mound in Flushing in 2013. However, with all of that said I don't trust the Wilpon's ability to continue to own the team. They will likely retain ownership for now but change in ownership whispers will continue to grow louder. 

7.) Ben's Baseball Bias will take the next step. I've been talking to you guys for a little while now, here's to talking to a few more of you in 2013!

8.) Jacoby Ellsbury will have a MVP type season. Again. Color me skeptical about Ellsbury's chances of hitting 30 home runs again but he won't need to do that to have an excellent season. Ellsbury has premier speed, good baserunning ability and makes consistent contact in a hitters park. Those are all good things. So long as Jacoby is healthy, and that is a big if, I think he'll have a rebound year.

9.) Sabermetrics will reach a broader audience while the old guard continues its assault. The Good: People are increasingly more receptible to statistics other than batting average, ERA and RBI. The Bad: We are still a few years away from Murray Chass, Mitch Albom and co. putting down their pens.  The Ugly: Murray Chass, Mitch Albom and co. continue to write about baseball. 

10.) Giancarlo "Mike"  Stanton will hit 50 home runs. Giancarlo Stanton is 23 years old and over the last and his first three seasons he's averaged 31 home runs. Giancarlo Stanton's 162 game pace last year would have given him 48 home runs. His strike outs are worrisome, but if Giancarlo puts a few more balls in play and stays healthy all year he's as good a bet as anyone to knock 50 out of the park. 

11.) Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum and Josh Beckett will have bounceback years. While all three pitchers were largely disappointing last year, their performance wasn't as bad as the peripheral numbers would suggest. Regression to the mean in this case would indicate solid performances all around out of these former aces, even if they don't return to their previous level of dominance. 

12.) The Miami Heat will win the NBA championship. Most teams don't have the ability to flip the switch whenever they would like but most teams don't have LeBron James. The East is as bad as it's been in a decade, so the Heat's path to the finals will be relatively easy and once they get their I trust LeBron, Wade and Bosh will hoist the trophy again. 

13.) The Miami Marlins will have the lowest attendance in baseball. While it might be smart business to not spend money if you aren't going to win, the Marlins have lost any ounce of respect they might have gained with their publicly funded B-grade Disney World baseball park.