Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Game Tonight

You all may know but just to recap, tonight's game (World Series game 5, Phillies up 3 games to 1 against the Rays, but if you didn't know at least that you probably shouldn't be here, we're new over here but you'll learn soon that we get pretty pretty cliquey, often our games are locked...) starts suspended at the start of the bottom of the sixth, the Phillies up to bat with the pitcher's slot up, and Grant Balfour(righty) on the mound for the Devil Rays. Cole Hamels pitched a solid 6 5 2 2 1 3 line, which is in line with his pretty damn good postseason of 4-0 1.8 era in 35 innings. That's assuming he's not going to pitch in the 7th after throwing 75 pitches on Monday. Although if he is half as good as some people say he is, that could change.

Realistically, with the pitchers slot up Hamels' work is done (and it'll take a game 7 for him to become the first starting pitcher to win 5 in a postseason) and Charlie Manual will pinch hit with a lefty off the bench to face the righty Balfour. Balfour can throw some gas and has generally been pretty sweet this year, but since Balfour has already thrown in this game it is ok for Maddon to take him out. Maddon has to take him out and put in David Price (L), the matchups are oozing for it. The Phillies will most likely bat a lefty like Matt Stairs, then they have the top of the lineup up with Rollins(S), Werth(R), Utley(L), Howard(L). If Manual didn't refuse to break up Utley and Howard that could change how the Rays should pitch. But with 3 of the next 5 batters lefty and one a switch, the Rays should place a lefty on the mound. Also, now is clearly not the time to worry about conserving the pen (even though it rarely ever is in the playoffs with 4 months of rest looming ahead), and Price needs to keep pitching as long as he's effective (2-3 innings I'd guess), because when the Phillies get a lead they go Madson/Lidge and that's game over. Rays have to put up some 0's, use their best reliever (obviously Price), pitch to the matchup (obviously lefty, ding ding Price!) and not worry about saving anyone. Using Trevor Miller or J.P. Howell as matchup lefties would kinda be like using Balfour to save the pen against the Sox in game 5... let's try not to do that again Joe "the father of a real Joe the Plumber" Maddon, use the best, it's crunch time.

I can't tell the future but I'd say the Phillies win tonight, they have 12 outs compared to 9 outs for the Rays and the back of their pen is far better than the Rays. Although, like I said the Rays should bring in Price, he could be on and go 3 scoreless making the Phillies use one of Lidge or Madson, then it's near anyones game in extras.

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