Saturday, November 29, 2008

Answer For lmillz

Loyal reader lmillz posts:

"The more and more this offseason progresses the more i've been changing myperspective on what i think the Yankees should do with their staff. First off,i'm getting a little fed up with the Sabathia situation, if he doesn't want toplay here, don't force him to. Yes, he's amazing and he would be an ideal fitfor the Yankees but spending that much money on a guy who may not be able tohandle New York just doesn't seem like a good idea. So...i propose we do 2things. The first, trade for Peavy. Supposedly the Padres had told the Yankeesthey can work a deal out without putting Phil Hughes in the package which isamazing in my opinion, even if it means maybe dealing Cano, Peavy in my opinionis better suited for New York and could be better than CC. #2, sign Derek Lowe.The guy is a proven winner, a innings eater, and can pitch in the AL he seemslike a perfect fit. With those 2 moves done then i think the Yankees should takea high risk/high reward chance on Ben Sheets and pray he stays healthy. If hedoes we have a rotation of Peavy, Wang, Sheets, Joba and Lowe. By far the bestin baseball. And, it puts no pressure on Joba to carry the rotation and allowsHughes to start in the minors and god forbid Sheets gets hurt Hughes is stillthere. What do u think Ben?"

I disagree with your opinions on Sabathia. He is a great pitcher, one of the best in baseball, and arguably better than Peavy when you consider his durability and his proven dominance in the American (aka varsity) League. Sabathia is going to sign a 7 year deal that will put him on one team for the rest of his prime years, he's going to want to make sure he definitely wants to play there, so the fact that he didn't sign/reject the proposed offer automatically doesn't bother me. Sabathia has pitched in the playoffs (albeit not well) the last two years, and adapted well to the NL when he moved while carrying the Brewers on his huge frame. Not great reason to expect him to handle NY, but no reason not too. Sabathia is risky like any other pitcher, but it's the risk that the Yankees can handle and therefore should do. It's just money, and for the Yanks that's not bad. Trading for Peavy is money and prospects or even worse Cano, who although has his faults is still young and would require the Yankees to fill a hole at 2nd. If they trade Cano for a CF and sign a 2b (Orlando Hudson) I would have less problems. But trading Cano to fill a starting pitching need seems stupid now considering they can fill that hole with free agents.

Peavy pitches in by far the best pitching park in all of baseball in a significantly worse league in a significantly worse division. His career home ERA is 2.77 road 3.80, last year 1.74/4.28, 2007 2.51/2.57, 2006 3.75/4.57. He's not only good at home, he's actually quite good away still, but it's not consistent and his value is definitely inflated because of the park and league that he pitches in. Sabathia has pitched 494 innings the last 2 years, which terrifies some people, when it easily could mean he can just handle that kind of load. Meanwhile nobody gets terrified about Peavy missing time this year with elbow problems only throwing 173 innings. Sabathia pitched a career high of innings in 2007 then topped it in 2008, Peavy pitched a career high 222.3 innings in 2007 then got hurt in 2008. If CC decides he doesn't want to go to New York and signs elsewhere and the Yanks turn to Peavy that's different I don't have a problem with that because that's Sabathia's call, but with a choice between signing Sabathia and trading for Peavy, signing Sabathia makes more sense.

Now signing Lowe like I have said before, I definitely agree with. You made all the right points, he's the kind of durable solid pitcher the Yankees need. If they are signing/trading for 2 pitchers this offseason one would be the ace(Peavy/Sabathia) adding him with Wang and the other pitcher just needs to be a good consistent pitcher which is what Lowe is and what Burnett and Sheets aren't. You make another interesting point about getting Peavy, Lowe, and Sheets Sheets being the high risk/high reward sign. I guess if they are getting Peavy the money difference with Sabathia could afford Sheets, but I don't know if it's reasonable to expect that much signing by the Yanks. Like signing Sabathia, it's a risk the Yanks can take, so signing a high reward/high risk pitcher I have no problem with. Any reasoning that takes away pressure from Joba or allows Hughes to not be forced into the fire is music to my ears and it would obviously be on paper the best rotation like you said, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect it.

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