2011 Predictions

Joe Sheehan offered some of his 2011 baseball predictions, so I figured why not offer some of mine.  Similar to his list, there is no reason in stating the obvious, so here are some bold-ish predictions: 

1.) The Yankees will get into the post season with ease:  This certainly doesn't seem like a "bold" prediction but with the way people have been talking about the Yankees' offseason you would think they have no shot at reaching the playoffs.  It's true that the Yankees have had a poor offseason, but their roster, one that was pretty darn good last year, will pretty much be the same next year.  Also, while the Red Sox reloaded, the Rays have lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, their top 2 relievers and maybe even Matt Garza.  Essentially for the Yankees to miss out on the postseason, the Rays, Tigers, White Sox or A's would have to beat them out for the Wild Card, and poor offseason or not that just doesn't look like a reality.

2.) The Reds will finish 3rd in the NL Central: Even though I think Jay Bruce is primed for a breakout year (more below), I can't get myself to buy into their rotation or expect Scott Rolen to stay healthy and productive for another 130+ games.   Joey Votto is a star and they are a definitely a solid team but the Brewers 3rd best starter is better than the Reds' best and a team with Holliday, Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter has to be better than they were in 2010.

3.) 2011 Breakouts: Piggybacking (again) on Joe Sheehan, my list of potential break out stars for 2011:

• Jay Bruce: Wrist injuries often take a while to heel and Bruce's 2nd half line of .306/.376/.575 suggests what he can do over a full season.
• Shaun Marcum: He's been an above average pitcher for several years now, but the trade to the NL will take him to the next level.
• Oliver Perez:  I'm just making sure you didn't pass out while reading this. 
• Pedro Alvarez:  If he makes the adjustment rather than the other way around, he could hit 35 homers.
• Cameron Maybin:  Never underestimate consistent playing time.  If the Padres throw him in CF every day, he's talented enough to put it together, even in Petco.

4.) 2011 Busts: You can't have a breakout unless it corresponds with someone busting, so here we go:

• Carlos Gonzalez: He's a fantastic young  player but it's hard to walk that little, strikeout that often and keep up that production.  Unless you truly believe he has Vlad Guerrero's ability to hit anything he sees, Car-Go is more like Alfonso Soriano than a triple crown candidate.
• Clay Buchholz: A 2.33 ERA with mediocre strikeout and walk rates isn't sustainable.  He's good, but he aint' that good.
• Josh Hamilton:  Health isn't one of his strengths and even Bill James' often optimistic projections calls for a significant drop off in production.  

5.) At least one team will start off hot, get a lot of press and then cool off: The Padres were smart last year to not overreact to a pretty lucky hot start, mortgaging their future.  Will the 2011 version of the Padres do the same?  Hard to say.  The Blue Jays often seem to have nice starts and one of these days they'll have to believe it's their time to compete.   

6.) We know the Royals will stink, but they're going to be historically awful:  Maybe not quite like the 2003 Tigers (who went 43-119) but these Royals are baaaaaaad.  Their best player is a closer who can go a week without pitching, their best position player doesn't actually play a position and has only 20 homer power and their rotation doesn't feature one guy who you would feel comfortable having as your 4th starter.  Unless Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers pull a Ryan Braun and mash right from the start, this is going to be a longer season for Royals fans than even they're used to.  

7.) Jesus Montero will be an adequate catcher, for the Yankees: Contrary to what a lot of overreacting, simpleminded Yankees beat writers will tell you, the Russell Martin signing doesn't mean that the Yankees have no faith in Montero, it just means the Yankees are getting some insurance on a 21 year old rookie catcher.  Jorge Posada couldn't really catch when he was young, let alone when he was 36 but he could hit so he started.  Jesus Montero will do the same.  The Yankees do trade prospects, but generally they keep their best ones as I don't see any Pettittes, Jeters, Canos or Riveras playing for other teams.  Forget the trade rumors, they're holding on to Montero and he's going to do well for them.

8.) The A's win the division:  The A's have a great young rotation that in theory should only get better and this offseason they added a few underrated bats.  Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David Dejesus won't scare you but they're significant upgrades over Rajaj Davis and Ryan Sweeney.  The Rangers are still a solid team, and have a very impressive lineup, but as their roster currently stands, I don't see how relying on CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis over a 162 game season to anchor your rotation adds up to a division winner.

9.) Ben's Baseball Bias takes the next step:  In 2020 when I'm making bagillions off of my quick wit and stupendous baseball analysis, I'll point to 2011 as being a landmark year.  Hey, I can dream right?

10.) Nick Markakis will be traded, and then will mash: Markakis has declined over the last couple years making his contract not as team-friendly as it once was as it will start to get more expensive.   At some point a big budget team will need an outfielder and the Orioles, who are still a few years away from competing, will trade him.  At that point in a new surroundings, maybe even the JV league, Markakis will start hitting like he did in 2007.  

11.) Jose Bautista will hit over 40 homers:  Predicting anyone to hit 50 homers is silly, but Jose Bautista is the real deal and will prove that in 2011.  

12.) The Red Sox rotation will be dece, but it won't matter: Clay Buchholz had an ERA about 2 runs higher than he should have, John Lackey aint' that good, the days of Dice-K putting it all together are over and Josh Beckett can't stay healthy.  Jon Lester is arguably a top 5 starter in the game but the Red Sox rotation as a whole is better in our minds than they are production wise.  With all of that said however, the Red Sox will still be fantastic and deserving of the praise they will get before, during and after the season.

13.) I have no f-ing clue who will win the World Series: At this point I usually feel fairly confident in my ability to choose a World Series favorite, but honestly I have no idea.  This may seem like a cop-out answer, but with everyone choosing a specific team this likely makes me the unique one, and I'll gladly take that position.