MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Predictions Part II

Yesterday I piggy-backed on the MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free Agents with my own predictions of the top 10. Today we continue with Part II, 11- 20:

11.  Michael Cuddyer - Twins.  Gaining second base eligibility made Cuddyer a hot commodity in fantasy baseball (hello 20 HR 2B!), but unfortunately for him that doesn't carry over to "real" baseball. Other teams will certainly be interested, but I don't see him leaving.

12.  Mark Buehrle - White Sox.  The White Sox situation basically totally sucks. They aren't quite good enough to rely on competing next year, and at the same time they have too many expensive contracts to unload and rebuild. I can't pick one team to sign Buehrle over the White Sox, so I'm sticking with him staying in Chicago, but I could see another team sweeping in and signing Buehrle with the weak pitching market

13.  David Ortiz - Red Sox. I could see Big Papi leaving the Red Sox situation for wherever the most money is, but I'm not sure that would be outside of Boston. Toronto is certainly a possibility as Tim predicts, but I have him resigning with the Sox, whether or not its begrudgingly I can't say though.

14.  Ryan Madson - Phillies. This is kind of similar to their situation with Rollins where they need a closer/shortstop but don't have many other alternatives. If they don't sign Madson, who will close for them? He may get somewhat expensive, but I'd say he's a cheaper option than more "proven" closers like Papelbon and K-Rod, and just as effective.

15.  Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.  Time and time again he's said he won't pitch on the East Coast and wants to stay in LA, I'm not going to argue with him. 

16.  Carlos Pena - Indians.  Pena may spend the next 3 years signing 1-year deals on teams that are kinda-sorta trying to win, but don't necessarily have the pieces to do it. This year, I think that team will be the Indians. They made their bed by trading for Ubaldo, now they have to sleep in it, but with Pena too! 

17.  Francisco Rodriguez - Blue Jays. I think the Blue Jays are going to be tied to a lot of the big name free agents on the list, but come up short on a lot of them leaving them with money to spend on less exciting names like K-Rod (although as far as names sound literally, K-Rod ain't too shabby).

18.  Roy Oswalt - Rangers.  Oswalt's injury concerns and decreasing strikeout rate no longer make him an ace, or elite level starting pitcher, but he still limits his walks and is a solid, consistent starter. And in this pitching market that is attractive. Also, Oswalt always seems to be on the brink of retirement so he will likely only require at most, a 3-year deal. With that said, I see the Rangers doubling down on starting pitching and signing Oswalt. 

19.  Javier Vazquez - Marlins.  Vazquez seems to be leaning towards retirement but the Marlins have stated that they want to acquire 2 more starters, and based off how well he finished last year for the fish, I'll say Vazquez pitches for the Miami Marlins in 2012.

20.  Heath Bell - Padres.  Bell's K/9 fell from 11.06 in 2010 to 7.32 and he's certainly benefited from playing in Petco over the last few years. There are enough red flags to prevent other teams from signing him (and forfeiting a draft pick) and Bell himself has said he will accept arbitration, so I don't see him leaving San Diego.

Brett Gardner, 2012 Gold Glove Winner?

This time last year, after Derek Jeter won his 5th Gold Glove I said that it would be the last time that I would write about the award, and in some respects it is, but I just can't help myself.

While the Gold Glove should come down to simply one thing - being a great fielder, the award has taken a life of it's own and really comes down to a variety of factors, other than fielding. Last year I listed those factors: 

• Hitting.  To win a Gold Glove you have to hit.  Jimmy Rollins was always a solid fielder but he had to hit 20+ doubles, triples, and home runs to get noticed for his fielding in 2007.

• Familiarity.  If Player A was worthy last year, he has to be this year!  Contrary to what seems to be the popular belief, players have up and down years in the field just like they do at the plate.  

• Laziness.  Just a total lack of effort.  Derek Jeter is often "voted" the most overrated player in the league, by people in the league.  So, how can those people vote him for the best fielder, when everyone around baseball KNOWS that he's not?  They're lazy.

• Year(s)-After-Effect.  Franklin Gutierrez won the Gold Glove this year even though it was in 2008 and 2009 where he was truly magnificent.  It takes a while for the chatter about an under-the-radar fielder to make its way around, and often when he's finally selected he's not necessarily deserving.  Gutierrez deserved it in years passed, but this year Brett Gardner should have won it.  Expect Gardy to take the hardware home next year, regardless if he plays well in the field or not.

• Team Goodness.  Forgive my phrasing, but a team has to be good often times for someone to win the award.  The Yankees had 3 Gold Glove winners this year (Jeter, Teixeira, Cano) even though you can make a case that neither deserved it.  

Regarding the 2012 Gold Glove Award winners I wanted to talk about the Yea(s)-After-Effect - Brett Gardner deserved the award last year so I felt he would appropriately receive the award this year, regardless of how he played. Well, Gardner didn't win the Gold Glove, but it wasn't because he didn't deserve it, and we can look at the chart below (courtesy of Mark Simon at ESPN) to prove it:

In case it isn't obvious, the red represents the range of an average left fielder and the blue represents Brett Gardner's range. Notice how much more blue there is than red, to my eye it looks like that is certainly Gold Glove deserving. I'm not sure I can say it any better than Mark Simon, so I won't even try - "Brett Gardner got robbed." Here's to hoping Brett Gardner wins the 2012 Gold Glove, but I promise for sure this time, that it's the last time I will talk about the award.

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Predictions Part I

I doubt I'm the first blogger to piggy-back on  MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free Agents with Predictions list courtesy of Tim Dierkes, but I figured I would give it a go myself. After the offseason I will check back and see how I well (or more likely, how bad) I did.

The top 10:

I'm leaving, you're staying!

1.  Albert Pujols - Cardinals.  Albert Pujols would certainly enable the Blue Jays to contend in the AL East, and I'm sure the Marlins would like to enter their new stadium with a bang, but I just don't see anyone other than the Cardinals signing Pujols. The previously reported extension earlier in the year by the Cardinals was for 9 years ~$200 million.  Assuming the Cardinals would make their first offer a lower amount than they could afford, and that they have extra cash after winning the World Series, I could see Pujols signing something in the line of 9 years $240 million. 

2.  Prince Fielder - Mariners.  I loved that the Brewers went for it all last offseason, and that it ended up paying off this year and I would love nothing more than for the Brewers to be able to retain Fielder, but the writing has been on the wall for a while and I just can't see the Brewers ponying up the cash for Prince. While Boras is surely a reason why he didn't receive an extension like Hart, Weeks and Braun did, the fact he's with Boras and that the Brewers were content to make sure all their other key members are in it for the long hall likely means Prince will be leaving. I could see the Cubs as being a match for Prince too, but I'm not sure Theo Epstein wants to build the next Cubs dynasty around a future DH. Therefore, the Mariners are the safest bet since they play in the AL, have money to spend and lack a power bat, or a bat in general .

3.  Jose Reyes - Mets. This one is tough. The Brewers need a shortstop in the worst way but if I'm assuming they can't quite afford Prince Fielder, I'm not sure they can afford Reyes, who's injury concerns on a long term deal could really ruin a small market team. With that said, the other teams in need of a SS (Reds, Twins, Giants and Cardinals) don't really have the money to obtain Reyes either. So, while I'm not confident with this pick, I could see the market for Reyes not getting too obscene, and the Mets keeping him. 

4.  C.J. Wilson -Rangers.  Everyone seems to think that he's leaving Texas, but I don't see it, especially if we are already calling them a dynasty.Pitching is definitely thin this offseason and many teams need front-line starting (it's debatable if Wilson is front-line, but he's still the best that's available) but none more so than the Rangers if he ends up leaving. Right now, sans C.J. the Rangers rotation consists of Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison and attempts at making Alexi Ogando or Neftali Feliz a starting pitcher. OK, so that's better than all teams in need of starting pitching, but compared to teams competing for a title - the Rangers may need Wilson the most, and I say he stays.

5.  Yu Darvish - Yankees.  Resigning C.C. Sabathia allows the Yankees to breathe, but it doesn't mean that their rotation is ready to go for opening day, far from it. Behind Sabathia the Yankees have Burnett, Hughes, Nova, and, well that's about it. While Dave Cameron makes an excellent case to not overpay for Darvish, this is exactly the kind of financial muscle the Yankees should flex. I personally think Darvish would be a better investment than Wilson, and as far as all the other pitchers available are concerned - the Yankees don't need a consistent 3-4 starter, they need a potential 1-2 starter, and Darvish can (potentially) provide that. 

6.  Edwin Jackson - Royals.  Maybe it's because I love Rany Jazayerli's blog, but I agree with him that Edwin Jackson could be a great fit with the Royals. 

7.  Jimmy Rollins - Phillies.  The Phillies are obviously trying to win now, and since Ryan Howard is going to screw them over in a few years anyway, why not add Rollins on top of that and go for it all.

8.  Aramis Ramirez - Brewers.  This year Casey McGehee's batting line was .223/.280/.346 and Jerry Hairston ended up playing 3B for them in the playoffs. As bad as the Brewers need a shortstop, they also need a 3B, and Aramis is the best one on the market and won't come close to Jose Reyes, or Prince Fielder's contract. Also FWIW, if Aramis is no longer effective at 3B, they do have an opening at 1B - if we work under my assumption that Prince will sign elsewhere. 

Carlos doesn't need a uniform to look good

9.  Carlos Beltran - Red Sox.  Lost in the shuffle of the Red Sox collpase, is that their team is still excellent and a good bet to make the playoffs next year. However, because of that collapse the Red Sox will be making moves, and one of them will be to replace one RF who makes everything look easy and gets shit for it (J.D. Drew), for another in Carlos Beltran. I could see the Giants bidding on Beltran too, but I'll side with the deeper pockets.

10.  Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox.  Amazing, before this year it was 100% assured that the Red Sox would let (a declining) Papelbon go and put Daniel Bard at closer. Well, a funny thing happened- Bard wasn't dominant and Papelbon had one of the best years of his career. Add in the fact that there is no one one, big market team in need of a closer, I see Papelbon staying in Boston.