MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Predictions Part I

I doubt I'm the first blogger to piggy-back on  MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free Agents with Predictions list courtesy of Tim Dierkes, but I figured I would give it a go myself. After the offseason I will check back and see how I well (or more likely, how bad) I did.

The top 10:

I'm leaving, you're staying!

1.  Albert Pujols - Cardinals.  Albert Pujols would certainly enable the Blue Jays to contend in the AL East, and I'm sure the Marlins would like to enter their new stadium with a bang, but I just don't see anyone other than the Cardinals signing Pujols. The previously reported extension earlier in the year by the Cardinals was for 9 years ~$200 million.  Assuming the Cardinals would make their first offer a lower amount than they could afford, and that they have extra cash after winning the World Series, I could see Pujols signing something in the line of 9 years $240 million. 

2.  Prince Fielder - Mariners.  I loved that the Brewers went for it all last offseason, and that it ended up paying off this year and I would love nothing more than for the Brewers to be able to retain Fielder, but the writing has been on the wall for a while and I just can't see the Brewers ponying up the cash for Prince. While Boras is surely a reason why he didn't receive an extension like Hart, Weeks and Braun did, the fact he's with Boras and that the Brewers were content to make sure all their other key members are in it for the long hall likely means Prince will be leaving. I could see the Cubs as being a match for Prince too, but I'm not sure Theo Epstein wants to build the next Cubs dynasty around a future DH. Therefore, the Mariners are the safest bet since they play in the AL, have money to spend and lack a power bat, or a bat in general .

3.  Jose Reyes - Mets. This one is tough. The Brewers need a shortstop in the worst way but if I'm assuming they can't quite afford Prince Fielder, I'm not sure they can afford Reyes, who's injury concerns on a long term deal could really ruin a small market team. With that said, the other teams in need of a SS (Reds, Twins, Giants and Cardinals) don't really have the money to obtain Reyes either. So, while I'm not confident with this pick, I could see the market for Reyes not getting too obscene, and the Mets keeping him. 

4.  C.J. Wilson -Rangers.  Everyone seems to think that he's leaving Texas, but I don't see it, especially if we are already calling them a dynasty.Pitching is definitely thin this offseason and many teams need front-line starting (it's debatable if Wilson is front-line, but he's still the best that's available) but none more so than the Rangers if he ends up leaving. Right now, sans C.J. the Rangers rotation consists of Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison and attempts at making Alexi Ogando or Neftali Feliz a starting pitcher. OK, so that's better than all teams in need of starting pitching, but compared to teams competing for a title - the Rangers may need Wilson the most, and I say he stays.

5.  Yu Darvish - Yankees.  Resigning C.C. Sabathia allows the Yankees to breathe, but it doesn't mean that their rotation is ready to go for opening day, far from it. Behind Sabathia the Yankees have Burnett, Hughes, Nova, and, well that's about it. While Dave Cameron makes an excellent case to not overpay for Darvish, this is exactly the kind of financial muscle the Yankees should flex. I personally think Darvish would be a better investment than Wilson, and as far as all the other pitchers available are concerned - the Yankees don't need a consistent 3-4 starter, they need a potential 1-2 starter, and Darvish can (potentially) provide that. 

6.  Edwin Jackson - Royals.  Maybe it's because I love Rany Jazayerli's blog, but I agree with him that Edwin Jackson could be a great fit with the Royals. 

7.  Jimmy Rollins - Phillies.  The Phillies are obviously trying to win now, and since Ryan Howard is going to screw them over in a few years anyway, why not add Rollins on top of that and go for it all.

8.  Aramis Ramirez - Brewers.  This year Casey McGehee's batting line was .223/.280/.346 and Jerry Hairston ended up playing 3B for them in the playoffs. As bad as the Brewers need a shortstop, they also need a 3B, and Aramis is the best one on the market and won't come close to Jose Reyes, or Prince Fielder's contract. Also FWIW, if Aramis is no longer effective at 3B, they do have an opening at 1B - if we work under my assumption that Prince will sign elsewhere. 

Carlos doesn't need a uniform to look good

9.  Carlos Beltran - Red Sox.  Lost in the shuffle of the Red Sox collpase, is that their team is still excellent and a good bet to make the playoffs next year. However, because of that collapse the Red Sox will be making moves, and one of them will be to replace one RF who makes everything look easy and gets shit for it (J.D. Drew), for another in Carlos Beltran. I could see the Giants bidding on Beltran too, but I'll side with the deeper pockets.

10.  Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox.  Amazing, before this year it was 100% assured that the Red Sox would let (a declining) Papelbon go and put Daniel Bard at closer. Well, a funny thing happened- Bard wasn't dominant and Papelbon had one of the best years of his career. Add in the fact that there is no one one, big market team in need of a closer, I see Papelbon staying in Boston.