NBA Predictions

Last year I gave you some pretty bad NBA predictions, this year I will do the same thing, only a couple of days late:

WEST

1.) Thunder: Whether or not they take the "next step" (whatever that really means) the Thunder are really good and really young which will obviously help them in the shortened season with more back-to-back (and even back-to-back-to-back games). I don't know if Westbrook and Durant will finally learn to really play together, but I do know that James Harden is really good and is a great breakout candidate. I'm honestly no basketball expert (I'm in no rush to make a Ben's Basketball Bias version of this blog...yet) but I know from watching the playoffs that at the end of the game the offense was running through Harden which certainly speaks well to his talents and the chances of him having a fantastic season for the Thunder.

2.) Mavericks: The short season may show their age but I think their depth will help mitigate that concern. Of course as I write this the Mavericks have looked horrible in the first two games, but I think Rick Carlisle just needs a few games to figure out how to use all of his pieces in the right way.

3.) Clippers: Consider me a 100% buyer on the Clippers. Chris Paul led the Hornets to the playoffs last year, you think he'll be pretty good with Blake Griffin? They have stars (Paul/Griffin), they can protect the rim (DeAndre Jordan) and they have depth (Mo Williams, Eric Bledsoe, Ryan Gomes). Add it all up and they're a contender.

4.) Spurs: They finished with the best record in the West last year and didn't really get any worse so placing them  4th seems more than fair. Yes, they are an older team which hurts them in a shortened season, but I'm not about to rank the Grizzlies over the Spurs over a 66 game season just because they matched up well with them in a playoff series. Duncan, Manu and Parker may not have enough left to grind out a championship, but they're still a top team in the West.

5.) Lakers: Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are an incredible tandem but until Bynum plays a near-full season, we can't consider them a trio. Oh, and after that, the Lakers have nothing unless you count Josh McRoberts as something. Kobe's still a great talent and plenty good enough to grind out some wins when the team just doesn't have it, but I'm having a really hard time placing the Lakers in the top half in the West.

6.) Grizzlies: Good defense + Zach Randolph low post scoring = 6th seed in the west. They may not seem like a special team, because they aren't but when 8 teams make the playoffs, not every playoff bound team is  championship caliber.

7.) Blazers: Considering their awful luck in the injury department (Greg Oden and Brandon Roy) it's pretty remarkable the Blazers have been able to consistently make the playoffs. I used to love the Rasheed Wallace era Blazers and I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Portland.

8.) Nuggets: For lack of a better word, the lockout kind of f*cked them over with JR Smith and Wilson Chandler going overseas to play. However, Ty Lawson looks like the real deal and with Nene, Gallinari and Afflalo the Nuggets should still be an exciting team to watch.

Sleeper:

Warriors: If Steph Curry can stop rolling over his ankle every game, I really like the Warriors chances to make some noise this season. Mark Jackson will get them to play more offense and their uptempo offense should be able to steal a few games from teams playing for the 2nd or 3rd time in a row.

EAST

1.) Heat: The Heat lost in the finals and their season was considered a let down, that's how good this team is. I fully expect the Big Two to dominate all year, leading the Heat to the top seed in the East and the best record in the NBA.

2.) Bulls: Whether or not Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP, the Bulls are hands-down the 2nd best team in the East. Adding Rip Hamilton will also only help Rose as he's a major, major upgrade over their 2-guards last year. I'm not sure where to add this, but I think Omer Asik could be a good one as well, he reminds me of Macin Gortat playing behind Dwight Howard in Orlando, the Bulls should hang onto him.

3.) Knicks: I think people are underrating what Baron Davis will bring to the table once he's healthy and playing (hard) for the Knicks. Plus, even if I'm proven wrong, it's not like a team with Melo and Amar'e need a playmaking point guard. Plus again, they upgraded Rony Turiaf to Tyson Chandler. Plus a third time, aren't we all tired of the Celtics?

4.) Celtics: For all of the flack the Knicks get about their lack of depth, where is the Celtics' depth? They are an older team than the Knicks and behind their starters are guys like Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox. However, with that said, Rajon Rondo looked damn good against the Knicks.

5.) Pacers: One tough series in the opening round with the Bulls last year in the playoffs doesn't mean the Pacers are ready to be one of the best teams in the East, but they are certainly on the right path. I liked the David West pickup, $20M/2 years sounds like a bargain and he gives them some depth in the frontcourt that will help them over the course of the season.

6.) Hawks: I'm not sure how a team with such an exciting highlight reel like Josh Smith can be so boring, but that's the Hawks for you. They're pretty good, not great and that's kind of where they've been for the last few years and where I imagine they will be for the next few.

7.) Magic:  If they keep Howard all year then they may finish higher, but the chances of them holding onto Howard all year only to lose in the first round of the playoffs without getting anything in return is such a bad decision you have to assume he'll be traded.

8.) 76ers: This years Pacers: a young team that could give a top team a run for it's money in the playoffs. There are a lot of ifs but if Elton Brand stays healthy again and Evan Turner and Jrue Holliday improve their game, they have a chance to be much better than the 8th seed.

Sleeper:

Wizards: John Wall can do some incredible teams and his teammates aren't the worst. Is this wishful thinking for my fantasy team with John Wall? Maybe, but so be it.

AWARDS

MVP: I'd probably be willing to bet my bank account (I know, it's not large but still!) that the Heat will finish as the best team this year and with LeBron being the best player on said team, I think he takes the award (again). If the Thunder finish first, Durant will receive some votes and depending on where Dwight Howard ends up he could garner some as well. Derrick Rose will find it's hard winning two years in a row.

Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving is on a terrible team with some terrible teammates but you need playing time over anything else to win this award, and he should get the most consistent minutes of all of the rookie class. Kemba Walker could also make some noise starting at PG for the Bobcats.

Defensive Player of the Year: As cool as it would be for a guy like Tony Allen to win this award, it generally goes to big men and it's not like Dwight Howard isn't completely deserving, he takes it.

Sixth Man: Since James Harden is my breakout pick and since he still isn't starting for the Thunder, I say he takes this award over Jamal Crawford and Jason Terry.

Quick Thoughts

I hope you all had and are having a wonderful holiday season but most of all I would like to wish my dear, loyal readers a Happy (belated) Festivus! Last year I even went so far as to create a Festivus song which I highly recommend you all read to really get in touch with your inner Festivus.


Anyway, onto baseball...

The St. Louis Cardinals signing of ex-Giant/Met/Astro/Royal/CF now RF Carlos Beltran for 2 years and $26M is nothing short of a fantastic addition by the Cardinals. Allen Craig was pencilled in as the starting RF for 2012 but he may miss some time as he recovers from offseason knee surgery and in his place, the Cardinals are getting a guy who quietly had a 151 wRC+, essentially meaning he was over 50% better than the average hitter at the plate. Yeah, pretty, pretty good. It's silly to ask who will replace a guy like Albert Pujols, but adding Carlos Beltran to the mix, a full season of Rafael Furcal at SS over Tyler Green and a healthy Adam Wainwright will certainly help. Whle Beltran would benefit from some at bats at DH in the American League and with any thoughts of Beltran playing in CF needing to be quickly dismissed, the fact is  Cardinals are getting one of the better hitters in the league on a short, reasonably priced deal. Nice play.

When I heard the Nationals traded 4 of their top prospects to the Oakland A's for starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez my initial thought was that it wasn't a smart move by the Nationals. But then I quickly realized the Nationals traded 3 pitchers (TNSTAAPP) and a catcher (Derek Norris) who has been slipping in recent years for a proven starter in the majors. Oh, and Gio Gonzalez will now be the 3rd starter in what is shaping up to be a very impressive Nationals rotation. Regardless of how you feel about Gio's control issues (he has most walks in the majors over the last two years) a rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez is nothing to sneeze at. It's really a shame they still owe Jayson Werth $116M, because the Nationals really have the building blocks to a contending team.

As far as the Oakland A's side is concerned, while it's not a bad deal by any means (they certainly got more in return for Gio Gonzalez than they did for Trevor Cahill) I'm not sure I love it for them either. Maybe I'm being delusional by thinking of the rumors that the A's were asking for Gio (Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and more) and comparing it to those unfair expectations, but you would still like to get more quality than quantity in a deal like this. However, the A's still have a solid defense and a lot of foul ground to help out their rotation, and if any of the starters they acquired (AJ Cole, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone) work out, the A's would be acquiring a Gio replacement with everyone else being considered gravy. 

Since the free agent frenzy during the Winter Meetings, not much has been said about free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. Yes, we hear the same rumors, rumblings and grumblings about teams like the Nationals and Rangers still being interested in Fielder, but those mostly come from Scott Boras' mouth AKA Jon Heyman. At this point it seems silly to even guess where Fielder will end up as none of the rumored teams really make all that much sense, at least not at the ~$150M+ pricetag that Prince will command:

• Texas Rangers: Prince is definitely an upgrade over Mitch Moreland but with Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton currently not signed long term and Michael Young without a position, is signing Prince Fielder a smart move?
• Chicago Cubs: It's really hard to get a read on the Cubs right now. Currently Theo is doing a great job bargain shopping (David DeJesus) but it's unclear if he's willing to cash it all in this year. Fielder's contract will be more manageable when Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano come off the books, but replacing bad contracts with another potentially bad one isn't a shrewd move Theo likes to make.
• Baltimore Orioles: Their entire roster (especially the rotation) is too far behind everyone else in the division to rationalize spending on Prince.
• Seattle Mariners: Another team that is hard to get a read on. On paper this kind of makes sense, but it reeks a little too much like the Nationals signing Jayson Werth to gain some respect, and we can see how that's served them so far.

2012 Fantasy Sleeper: Edinson Volquez

She's going to need a new shirt, or none
at all. I have no preference.

James Shields, Wade Davis, Matt Garza and Gio Gonzalez, those were the names we learned through rumors and whispers that we could expect to be traded, not Mat Latos. But, as we all know now, the Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres in return for 4 players: first basemen (and questionable LF) Yonder Alonso, starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, catching prospect Yasmani Grandal and pitching prospect Brad Boxberger.

While Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso are the crown jewels of the trade, cheap, cost-controlled young players with a lot of upside, and Brad Boxberger figures to have as good a chance as anyone to replace Mike Adams and Heath Bell in the back of the Padres bullpen, I'm going to take some time to talk about Edinson Volquez, who just became one of the more intriguing sleepers for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.

Edinson Volquez first made his name when in 2007 he was traded from Texas to Cincinnati for CF Josh Hamilton. Volquez then broke out in 2008, making the all-star game en route to a 17-6 season with a 3.21 ERA. Although he had a less than impressive 4.27 BB/9 he still struck out 206 batters in 196 innings pitched and the underlying numbers looked promising too as Volquez had a 3.60 FIP and accumulated 4.2 fWAR, pretty impressive for a player in his first full season at age 24. Nevertheless, the curse of Dusty Baker reared its ugly had when Volquez needed Tommy John surgery the following season after just 9 starts. Then in 2010, things got messy as Volquez was suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He finally made his 2010 debut following Tommy John Surgery in July and finished the season 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA, continuing to illustrate his lack of control (5.03 BB/9) while simultaneously displaying an ability to miss bats (67 strikeouts in 62.2 innings pitched).

With his 2008 performance still on the radar and the lack of starting pitching on the Reds, Volquez was named the opening day starter in 201l. However, the wheels really came off for Volquez as he finished 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA.

Or did they? Yes, Volquez did post a 5.71 ERA and yes he still struggled to limit his walks (5.38 BB/9) but Volquez also had a very, unsustainable HR/FB of 20.7% where the league average is generally around 11% and Volquez career HR/FB is 12.7%. What that means is Volquez was likely a victim of bad luck, and it shows in his 4.08 xFIP. Now, people may argue with some of the merits of xFIP, if pitchers truly have little control to how many fly balls turn into homers, but nobody would argue that playing in Petco (the best park for pitchers) would have an effect at limiting homers, especially compared to a small bandbox like Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

In effect, what we have here is a perfect formula for a sleeper:

1. Pedigree: Volquez has proven in the past that he can deliver results (re. 2008) and has a great skill in missing bats as he still ranked in the top 12 in K/9 in the NL even in his horrible season. 
2. Bad Luck: Volquez had a bout of bad luck last year, leading to an ERA that appears uglier than it should. His ERA will have him lower in the rankings than the underlying numbers would indicate.
3. New Environment: Volquez isn't coming back to the same team (and manager) that he's struggled with the last few seasons. He's entering a new organization and more importantly a new ball park that will benefit him. Further, head coach Bud Black is formerly a top pitching coach and should certainly help Volquez especially compared to the arm-killing Dusty Baker.
4. Low Pre-season Rating: Tristan Cockroft didn't rank Volquez in his top 75 Starting Pitchers and RotoChamp currently ranks Volquez 147th. It's safe to say Volquez isn't getting much attention, which is needed when you are talking about sleepers.

Volquez is currently getting no love but has the potential to do very well and all you will be risking is a late-round pick. If you needed yet another example of why it pays to not pay for pitching in your fantasy draft or just wanted a good sleeper candidate for 2012 look no further than Edinson Volquez.

Fantasy 5x5 Prediction: 170 IP, 10 wins, 3.75 ERA, 182 Ks, 1.30 WHIP

Quick Thoughts

Jed's not dead baby, Jed's not dead!

The Red Sox traded oft-injured middle infielder Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland  to the Houston Astros for reliever Mark Melancon. Melancon was technically a "closer" for the Astros, meaning he filled that role for a period of time and even got 20 saves. In the AL East and on the Red Sox however, I highly doubt Melancon will be Jon Papelbon's eventual replacement. 

So, in the end what this means is the Red Sox traded a startable middle infielder (these things have a lot of value) and a young starting pitcher for a middle reliever. While they certainly had a relative need in the bullpen, they still likely need to find Papelbon's successor and it's hard to call this anything but a big win for the Astros. Also, although it's not as if Kyle Weiland is a top pitching prospect, it'd be a more realistic trade for the Red Sox to swap Weiland for Melancon. Further, as we all know, (most) pitchers have higher success in the bullpen, it's somewhat likely that Weiland out of the bullpen could be better than Melancon as early as this upcoming season. Word is that the Astros plan on using Weiland as a starter, and that's probably the best bet. Lowrie certainly hasn't proved he can stay healthy for an entire season, but the upside here is tremendous. If Lowrie can stay (reasonably) healthy OR if Weiland pitches 150 useful innings it's a win for the Astros, and if both happen it's a downright steal and the exact kind of move the Astros are going to need if they want to succeed in the AL West in the future.

UPDATE: The Red Sox have now also signed ex-Twins, ex-Cardinals IF Nick Punto to a two-year deal. This move makes the Lowrie trade make a little more sense, as Punto is a capable backup middle infielder. So long as he doesn't have to start, this move makes sense, but I still have to believe they spent too much for Mark Melancon. 

Speaking of the Twins, they have agreed to a deal with OF Josh Willingham believed to be worth $21M over three years. Essentially with this move the Twins have traded Michael Cuddyer for Josh Willingham and a couple of additional draft picks that they will receive when Cuddyer signs elsewhere (Rockies most likely). Nice play. While Willingham doesn't fit the normal Twins player profile of speedy, slap and average hitter (.257 average over the last 3 seasons) he will still hit having averaged a 125 OPS+ over the last few years and will certainly improve their lineup which needless to say, needs a lot of help (probably because they generally prefer guys like Nick Punto). 

The Brewers, moving on from the Prince Fielder era have signed third basemen Aramis Ramirez to a 3-year $36M deal and SS Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal. The Brewers weren't going to make up Prince's production at first base, but they could spread out (some of) that money all over the diamond, and this is a great start. Last year Brewers' third basemen batted .222/.273/.341 with a 65 wRC+. It's safe to say that Aramis Ramirez should add 3-4 additional wins. Also, although Alex Gonzalez may not hit much better than their former SS,Yuniesky Betancourt, he should be worth an additional win or two just with the upgrade in the glove with Alex Gonzalez being about league average and Yuniesky Betancourt being the worst fielder in the National League.  

Next, the Brewers have to think about finding a replacement OF for Braun if he is to miss 50 games. After that, the Brewers should still be in a solid position to make a run at the NL Central again in 2012. 

Jeff Jacobs: Getting the Treatment

I don't always bash baseball writers, but when I do, I prefer to use the FJM treatment....

It's been a while since I've come across an article worthy (kind of surprising) but the wait is over - Jeff Jacobs from the Hartford Courant has brought FJM back to Ben's Baseball Bias!

Here. We. Go.

The Agony Of Filling Out A Hall Of Fame Ballot

While leaving an empty box next to Jeff Bagwell's name …


Oy, so that's where this article is going...


Lots of folks have a bucket list, or at least that's the term they assign to it after the 2007 movie with Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. And while it is probably best to keep most of the Before-I-Croak inventory private, I will share one checked off mine:


We all understood your use of "bucket list" without a need for you showing off your rather impressive knowledge of film history. And for what it's worth, while I'm not positive, I'm pretty darn sure the term bucket list wasn't coined by whatever schmuck wrote that money-grab movie for Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman like Catch-22 was by Joseph Heller. Look, I can make references that make me look cool too!!!


Cast a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame.


Fair enough. I would also like to cast a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame and since you have shown no evidence of being worthy of having a vote, I think I have just as good shot at this!


The first hint reality wouldn't be nearly as romantic as the dream arrived in the form of Michael Felger, Boston television and radio provocateur, in the Patriots locker room in 2008. 


I'm not sure if I even understand this sentence, but let me try: The first hint of reality that checking off casting a vote for the hall of fame off of your bucket list wasn't going to be as romantic as the dream that you had to check off of your bucket list that you cast a vote for the hall of fame arrived in the form of a human being in the Patriots locker room in the year 2008 named Michael Felger? I think I got it!


He pointed out I was the only new voter from the Boston chapter of the BBWAA that year and the Jim Rice ballot could come down to one vote either way. He offered two words of advice, "Be ready.


Wait, you actually have a vote!


The two words scared me so much sabermetric decimal points started running down my leg. 


Can we get confirmation that it wasn't diarrhea?


Didn't want to be wrong. 


Too late.


Didn't want to be labeled a homer. 


Too late.


Certainly didn't want to be the over-interviewed schlep known for holding Rice's fate in his hands.


So rather than simply voting for who was deserving, you took into consideration homers from Boston telling you to vote in line with their own biased opinion? And you still have a vote for the Hall of Fame?!?!?


I studied every statistical argument for a month, 


Did you make sure to study how much Rice was "feared"?


survived a near cerebral hemorrhage when it was forwarded to me that Roy White was better than Rice, 


Jim Rice: 41.5 career WAR
Roy White: 44.5 career WAR


The side effects from your near cerebral hemorrhage are beginning to show...


voted for Rice and added one line to my bucket list: Live long enough to see Rice elected by more than one vote.


Can someone please explain to me why someone who admits to being afraid to stand up to his opinion gets paid to write about them?


Rice got in by seven, with 412 votes among 539 ballots. Phew, dodged one bullet … only to be dragged into bottomless mire of performance-enhancing drugs. And, man, I have come to hate it.


Jacobs is scared of having Rice's fate in his hands, and now he's admitting he hates voting even more now? So, why does he have a vote?

Jose Reyes to the Miami Marlins

By now you know the news - Jose Reyes has signed with the Miami Marlins for $106 million over six years for an average of $17.67 million per year. The Marlins first free agent splash, signing Heath Bell, reeked of money poorly spent but this deal for Reyes is actually the opposite.

Entering the season in a new ballpark (also known as an ATM machine) the Marlins figured spend more money than we would normally assume but still, when the Marlins outbid the Mets for their own player you know something is off, or at least realize just how much the Mets financial situation has changed. ANYWAY, the Marlins' biggest concerns this off season were fixing their rotation, third base and center field and by signing Jose Reyes (and moving Hanley Ramirez to third) the Marlins fixed one of their biggest weaknesses and made it a strength. They essentially upgraded Greg Dobbs to Jose Reyes, 'nuff said.

As far as the actual contract is concerned, hamstring concerns included, this is a very fair deal. When Carl Crawford gets $142M and Jayson Werth gets $127M, $106M for one of the best shortstops in baseball who will still be 28 years old when the season starts is almost a bargain, if there is such a thing for top tier free agents. Now, there are legitimate injury concerns that should be mentioned-  in 2008 Jose Reyes only played in 36 games and he seems to have chronic hamstring problems, but Jose Reyes doesn't have to play in 162 games to be effective and earn his salary. Last year, Jose Reyes played in 126 games and was still arguably the most valuable short stop (if not player) in the league. Players with Reyes' skill sets tend to age well, and unless there is a major, major injury to Reyes he should more or less be worth what he's getting paid.

As I type this the Marlins have offered Albert Pujols a 10-year contract and have talked with CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle as well, so debating about how the Marlins now stack up to the Phillies and Braves seems irresponsible. At this point in time though, we do know the Marlins have vastly improved the team and look to be competitive in 2012, but for more specifics on their 2012 outlook we'll have to wait a little longer.

As for the Mets however, their 2012 outlook doesn't look so hot and we don't need any additional time in order to make an accurate statement. The Mets decision to hold onto Reyes this season couldn't have backfired worse - not only is he going to a rival but the Mets won't be able to receive a first-round pick as compensation and that's not even considering the top prospects they passed up by deciding to not trade him. I guess winning a grand total of 77 games and getting an extra 2nd round pick in the draft was worth holding onto Reyes, right Mets fans? 

Quick Thoughts

The Dodgers have signed lefty starting pitcher Chris Capuano  to a two-year $10MM deal. Playing in the friendly confines of Metco aka Citi Field last year Capuano faired pretty well pitching 186 innings illustrating his health. Although his ERA was relatively high at 4.55, his underlying numbers indicated a better performance, striking out 168 guys only issuing 53 walks leading to a more than respectable 4.04 FIP and 3.67 xFIP. If Capuano can keep up his peripheral numbers from last year, the Dodgers, with a little bit of luck, will have found a solid, cheap option to fill out their rotation. EXTRA: Did you know that Chris Capuano had one of the best pitched games of the year in 2011? On August 26, 2011 against the Atlanta Braves Capuano pitched 9 scoreless innings, giving up only a mere 2 hits while striking out 13 batters without issuing a walk. 

In other Dodger news, Magic Johnson is looking to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers along with Mark Walter, the CEO of Guggenheim Partners and Stan Kasten, the former President of the Washington Nationals. Apparently part of Magic Johnson's role would be "recruiting players, when needed", which makes the Dodgers ability to sign Capuano without the aid of Magic that much more impressive.

The Houston Astros are trying their best to lure Tampa Bay Rays GM Andrew Friedman to Houston but everyone in Friedman's camp says he isn't leaving Tampa, at least not yet. Even though Houston is Friedman's hometown I can't blame him for not wanting to return home as the Astros  (1) have an awful farm system; (2) will be moving to the AL soon; and (3) the last time I checked, the Astros had somewhere between 4-7 starters on the diamond that wouldn't start for other teams. But hey, at least they have a pitching staff that finished last place in the National League in ERA! To add insult to injury it looks like the Astros are having a hard time convincing anyone to be their GM. Good luck Houston!

New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is set to have throat surgery today, and while it shouldn't effect his pitching you have to wonder how it will effect his shmoozing at his steakhouse in New Rochelle. 

Heath Bell, not Will Smith: "I'm Going to Miami"

The Miami Marlins and closer Heath Bell have agreed on a 3 year, $27MM deal with a vesting option for a 4th year. 

Bienvenido a Miami!

While Heath Bell may enjoy to "party in the city where the heat is on, all night on the beach 'till the break of dawn", something tells me the Miami Marlins won't be partying at the end of this contract. Giving a closer $27MM is a big commitment, especially considering the Marlins usually have one of the lower payrolls in the league and just last year they traded Cameron Maybin for 2 relief pitchers - Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. 

The Marlins certainly have (had) a need at closer, but they also have needs elsewhere on the diamond, especially in center field. Did I mention that they traded Cameron Maybin last year for 2 relief pitchers, none of which became a closer (otherwise they wouldn't have signed Bell) and that Maybin would have led the Marlins in WAR last year?

To be fair, Bell is definitely one of the best closers in baseball - over the past three seasons (since he's been closing for the Padres) Bell has averaged a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 44 saves. However, it should also be mentioned that Bell has pitched in the friendliest pitching environment with some very good fielding and that  his K/9 dropped from 11.1 in 2010 to 7.3 last year. Bell still had a wonderful year and it helps to know that the strikeout fall wasn't due to a decrease in veloctiy, but safe to say that isn't a good trend to have. 

Jon Papelbon certainly set the bar in terms of closer's contracts this year ($50MM over 4 years to the Phillies) but when Jonathan Broxton gets $5MM, $27MM for Heath Bell is just too much money for a team like the Marlins to be throwing around for what is really just a role, not a skill. 

Murray Chass: Excellent Journalism

As you all know the Red Sox hired Bobby Valentine and there has been a lot of talk on the internets on whether or not he's a good "fit" for the Red Sox. Naturally the one and only Murray Chass has now chimed in!

Now, I don't really care what Murray Chass has to say about anything anymore, seriously, but his latest bit is  pretty pathetic:

It’s one thing to be the general manager with your boss, the hands-on – and he has very large hands — Larry Lucchino, looking over your shoulder and hovering overhead. But to be caught between Lucchino and the new manager, Bobby Valentine, who loves to moonlight as general manager, is more than a rookie general manager should have to tolerate.

Consider the ingredients of this mix:

• Theo Epstein, the recently departed general manager, has never acknowledged it, but it is widely believed that he walked away from the g.m. job in 2005 as the result of differences with Lucchino.

• In the Red Sox search for a new manager, Cherington reportedly favored Dale Sveum but was overruled by the team’s ruling triumvirate: principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and Lucchino.

• Valentine was supposedly Lucchino’s idea and Cherington had to interview him and like him, whether he wanted to or not. It was after Halloween, and there were no gorilla costumes lying around.

• Valentine has a history of wanting to control more than the lineup on the field. When he tries it in Boston, maybe Lucchino will block his efforts, or maybe Lucchino will join his efforts and tell Cherington what to do.

I have considered the ingredients of your mix, Murray, and it sounds like you are trying to force a statement (that everything is wrong in the Boston front office/management) when it isn't necessarily true.


Consider these key words in each of your "ingredients":
1) "has never acknowledged it, but it is widely believed"
2) "Cherington reportedly favored"
3) "was supposedly Lucchino’s idea
4) "maybe Lucchino will block his efforts, or maybe Lucchino will join"


If you are going to bash the Red Sox management, use more concrete examples rather than anecdotal evidence and guesses. Plus, if you are going to bash them for hiring Bobby Valentine, and want us to believe you are unbiased, don't quote yourself as saying “He doesn’t like me and I don’t like him” when referring to Bobby Valentine.


Just a suggestion.

2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot has been released by the Baseball Writers Association of America, which means it's time for me to talk about each man on the ballot!

And if you're interested in history, here is my 2011 ballot.

This hideous goatee may be
hurting Bagwell.

Jeff Bagwell: Yes. It seems silly to even waste my time stating how Bagwell is deserving, but sadly not everyone is on the same page as Bagwell only received 41.7% of the votes last year. According to fWar (Fan Graphs' version of Wins Above Replacement) Bagwell ranks 10th all time for 1B, which may not sound that impressive but know that it's higher than Rod Carew, Eddie Murray, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey and Ernie Banks who are all enshrined in Cooperstown. 

Jeromy Burnitz: No. Burnitz was known for being an ex-Met, hitting a lot of homers for some really bad Brewers teams, having a late-career Coors Field boom, and being known as an all-around good clubhouse guy but a Hall of Famer he is not.

Vinny Castilla: No. Speaking of Coors Field I'm not sure that any player benefited more from their home park than Vinny Castilla did while playing for the Rockies at the height of the steroid/non-humidor/inflated numbers era in Colorado. At his peak, Castilla was hitting over .300 with 40 home runs which sounds Hall-worthy until you realize that during those 5 peak years his OPS+ was only 109 (meaning his OPS was only 9% better than the average major league hitter). And outside of Coors, well he was never good, leading to a very underwhelming career OPS+ of 95.  Solid player, great fantasy 3b, not a Hall of Famer.

Juan Gonzalez: No. If it's possible to hit over 40 home runs 5 times, win 2 MVP awards and not be considered even a debatable Hall of Famer, Juan Gonzalez is your guy. He hit a lot of homers and drove in a ton of batters, enough to fool the BBWAA twice for MVP awards he didn't deserve. He also couldn't stay healthy, refused to take a walk and was a DH playing Right Field. 

Deion Sanders wasn't the only 2-way player for the
Falcons/Braves.

Brian Jordan: No. Great fielder, vastly underrated baseball player and solid defensive back for the Atlanta Falcons, but not a Hall of Famer.

Barry Larkin: Yes. He's basically achieved everything a major league player could achieve, and it's a shame he wasn't elected last year. However, having received 62.1% of the votes in 2011 it looks like he is on his way to being inducted in 2012.

Javy Lopez: No. Lopez was probably the most over looked Braves during their division winning dynasty days, then he hit 43 homers in 2003, signed with the Orioles the following year and was out of baseball in three seasons. 

Edgar Martinez: Yes. I don't care if he was "only" a designated hitter (hint: he wasn't), go back and look at his on-base percentages, clean up your drool and tell me he's not a Hall of Famer.

Don Mattingly: No. One of the pre-requisites for a lot of Hall of Famers is healthy and durability, and unfortunately Donnie Baseball had neither. 

Fred McGriff: No. I'm not holding it against him that he didn't hit 7 more home runs to get to 500, I just don't think he was quite good enough. He was a solid 1b for a long time and put up some very impressive counting stats, but when you think about it like that so did a lot of other players and McGriff's numbers aren't impressive enough at the position he played. 

Mark McGwire: Yes. Since we'll never know everyone who used steroids and everyone who didn't, I'm not automatically dismissing McGwire from the Hall of Fame. With that said the dude hit 583 homers and had a 162 career OPS+, not to mention how he averaged over 60 home runs a season over a 4-year stretch. If one pre-requisite for the Hall of Fame is durability, another is being one of the best players during your time, and McGwire most certainly was. 

Jack Morris: No. I won't waste much time here talking about Jack Morris because I'm sure an article by Dan Shaughnessy's ballot will force me to write many more in the near future. Bottom Line: One World Series pitching performance doesn't make you a Hall of Famer.

Bill Mueller drove in Dave Roberts
after his now famous steal. Barf.

Bill Mueller: No. If, and when, a Red Sox fan creates a Best Hitters Against Mariano Rivera Hall of Fame then I'll gladly route for Mueller's inclusion, but until then he's staying out of Cooperstown. And in case you were curious, for his career Mueller was 6/17 with 1 HR and 4 RBI against Mariano including the game tying hit in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS.

Terry Mulholland: No. He pitched for 11 teams, threw a no-hitter, made an all-star game, and continuously went from starting to spot starting to relieving back to starting again becoming one of the generations best "rubber arms". Pretty cool.

Dale Murphy: No. It'll be a shame if great players like Dale Murphy are forgotten because they are just not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame but that doesn't mean we ought to vote in every player that's not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. However, Murphy still won 2 MVPs and was one of the best, if not the best, OF for several years in the National League.

Phil Nevin: No. I'll always remember Phil Nevin for being a huge part of many a fantasy baseball team name "I Ain't Nevin Scared", but I may not always remember him for being a great baseball player because he wasn't.

Rafael Palmeiro: No. If Fred McGriff played half of his games in Texas his career would probably look like Rafael Palmeiro's which means to say that I wouldn't vote either in the Hall of Fame.

Brad Radke: No. Brad Radke threw a lot of innings, gave up a lot of hits and home runs but hardly walked anyone, finishing his career with a1.6 BB/9 ranking 32nd all time.

Tim Raines: Yes. It's pathetic that he hasn't been inducted yet and even more so that he only received 37.5% of the votes last year. If you need to be convinced that he's worthy, check this out. 

Tim Salmon: No. I'm glad that Mr. Angel was able to win a World Series with them in 2003 and he's certainly deserving for their Hall of Fame but for the rest of us he may soon be forgotten. He does have a cool  factoid though that may keep his name alive from the always reliable Wikipedia: "Salmon's career home run total is the highest for any player in MLB history who played most of his career after the first All-Star game in 1933 to have never been selected to appear in an All-Star Game."

Ruben Sierra: No. A lot of people have been joking about Bill James' Hall of Fame predictions from 1995 concluding that Ruben Sierra would be inducted in 2017, which in 2012 seem ridiculous. In his early years Sierra did profile as a potential young star and future hall of famer, but something happened in the 90s and Sierra became a glorified pinch hitter for the remainder of his career.

Lee Smith: No. His only chance of making the Hall of Fame was when he had the record for most saves and now that he's only third he won't make it, which is good because he doesn't really deserve it.

Alan Trammel: Yes. He's one of the best shortstops of all time, it's as simple as that.

Larry Walker: No.  Just like last year, this one was very tough for me but I'm not changing my vote. Again though, it must be mentioned that he wasn't just a product of Coors Field, he would have (and did) hit in any park and would continue to play a great right field. Also, it must be mentioned again that he had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time in 1997:  .366 average, 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals.  If that happened this year he would have finished first in the major leagues in average, homers, RBI, runs and 15th in stolen bases. 

Bern, baby Bern!

Bernie Williams: No. In 2002, Bernie Williams was 33 years old and just hit .333/.415/.493, one of his best seasons and at that point in his career he had over 1,800 hits 226 homers and a .308/.392/.493 batting line. It didn't seem so out of the question that if he could keep that up for a few more years he would start entering the Hall of Fame debate. Unfortunately however in 2003, Bernabe Figueroa Williams' production slipped, batting .263 with less power and he never recovered, retiring in 2006 at the age of 37. Although he won't be arriving in Cooperstown (at least in bronze form), Bernie has had a successful post-baseball music career. 


Tony Womak: No. Last year Lenny Harris' name on the ballot provided some laughs, this year it's Tony Womak providing the comedy. Tony Womak was never a good fielder (career -46.8 UZR/ -2.7 dWAR) and couldn't swing a bat (career 72 OPS+). He did however steal 72 bases once and had the game tying hit against Mariano Rivera in game 7 of the 2001 World Series with the Diamondbacks. Damn, this ballot isn't too kind to Mariano Rivera!


Eric Young: No. Eric Young is like having the best season of Tony Womak's career, but for 10 years, not a Hall of Famer, but at least a solid player. Plus he's also given us Eric Young Jr. who is just like the real Tony Womak. Next up: Tony Womak Jr., the clone of Eric Young Sr.!

Recap

Yeses: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines, Alan Trammel

Close Calls but No: Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, 

Why the F*ck are you on the ballot: Tony Womak

What say you?