2012 Fantasy Sleeper: Edinson Volquez

She's going to need a new shirt, or none
at all. I have no preference.

James Shields, Wade Davis, Matt Garza and Gio Gonzalez, those were the names we learned through rumors and whispers that we could expect to be traded, not Mat Latos. But, as we all know now, the Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres in return for 4 players: first basemen (and questionable LF) Yonder Alonso, starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, catching prospect Yasmani Grandal and pitching prospect Brad Boxberger.

While Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso are the crown jewels of the trade, cheap, cost-controlled young players with a lot of upside, and Brad Boxberger figures to have as good a chance as anyone to replace Mike Adams and Heath Bell in the back of the Padres bullpen, I'm going to take some time to talk about Edinson Volquez, who just became one of the more intriguing sleepers for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.

Edinson Volquez first made his name when in 2007 he was traded from Texas to Cincinnati for CF Josh Hamilton. Volquez then broke out in 2008, making the all-star game en route to a 17-6 season with a 3.21 ERA. Although he had a less than impressive 4.27 BB/9 he still struck out 206 batters in 196 innings pitched and the underlying numbers looked promising too as Volquez had a 3.60 FIP and accumulated 4.2 fWAR, pretty impressive for a player in his first full season at age 24. Nevertheless, the curse of Dusty Baker reared its ugly had when Volquez needed Tommy John surgery the following season after just 9 starts. Then in 2010, things got messy as Volquez was suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He finally made his 2010 debut following Tommy John Surgery in July and finished the season 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA, continuing to illustrate his lack of control (5.03 BB/9) while simultaneously displaying an ability to miss bats (67 strikeouts in 62.2 innings pitched).

With his 2008 performance still on the radar and the lack of starting pitching on the Reds, Volquez was named the opening day starter in 201l. However, the wheels really came off for Volquez as he finished 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA.

Or did they? Yes, Volquez did post a 5.71 ERA and yes he still struggled to limit his walks (5.38 BB/9) but Volquez also had a very, unsustainable HR/FB of 20.7% where the league average is generally around 11% and Volquez career HR/FB is 12.7%. What that means is Volquez was likely a victim of bad luck, and it shows in his 4.08 xFIP. Now, people may argue with some of the merits of xFIP, if pitchers truly have little control to how many fly balls turn into homers, but nobody would argue that playing in Petco (the best park for pitchers) would have an effect at limiting homers, especially compared to a small bandbox like Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

In effect, what we have here is a perfect formula for a sleeper:

1. Pedigree: Volquez has proven in the past that he can deliver results (re. 2008) and has a great skill in missing bats as he still ranked in the top 12 in K/9 in the NL even in his horrible season. 
2. Bad Luck: Volquez had a bout of bad luck last year, leading to an ERA that appears uglier than it should. His ERA will have him lower in the rankings than the underlying numbers would indicate.
3. New Environment: Volquez isn't coming back to the same team (and manager) that he's struggled with the last few seasons. He's entering a new organization and more importantly a new ball park that will benefit him. Further, head coach Bud Black is formerly a top pitching coach and should certainly help Volquez especially compared to the arm-killing Dusty Baker.
4. Low Pre-season Rating: Tristan Cockroft didn't rank Volquez in his top 75 Starting Pitchers and RotoChamp currently ranks Volquez 147th. It's safe to say Volquez isn't getting much attention, which is needed when you are talking about sleepers.

Volquez is currently getting no love but has the potential to do very well and all you will be risking is a late-round pick. If you needed yet another example of why it pays to not pay for pitching in your fantasy draft or just wanted a good sleeper candidate for 2012 look no further than Edinson Volquez.

Fantasy 5x5 Prediction: 170 IP, 10 wins, 3.75 ERA, 182 Ks, 1.30 WHIP