Question:
I'll make this question quick, thoughts on the recent Yankees/Mariners trade and the Hiroki Kuroda signing?
Considering some key contextual items surrounding this mega-deal, you gotta love the Montero for Pineda trade for the Yanks.
I'm sure this one hurts for a lot of Yankee fans. We love prospects. And Montero's a Jesus among prospects. And we love, even more than prospects, rebutting the small-market whiners that we can harvest the farm just like the little guys. With Jesus just sniffing the majors last summer (to the tune of 4 homers and 12 RBI in his first 61 AB's), things were getting pretty exiting.
But the Yanks were always willing to deal Montero. His suspect defense pushed him into the DH slot on the depth chart--an area already cluttered with a queue of aging salary dumpsters, most likely for years to come. Do you let Montero catch, giving up runs to negate the ones he'd produce? Do you keep pushing A-Rod and Teixeira out onto the diamond, until they're incapable of crouching to scoop grounders, so that Montero can DH? Nope, you send off your best trade chip to bolster weaknesses elsewhere--SP.
Considering Cashman already dangled Montero to the Mariners to try to pry Cliff Lee for a playoff run at the trade deadline a couple years ago, getting Pineda (who's 22 and has 5 years left on his deal) is a major haul. Throw in Jorge Campos for Noesi (who had no place on the Yanks, let's be real) and voila. Cashman for the W.
People are chirping (tweeting?) that Pineda might not handle the intense scrutiny of the NY media well. Heard that one before. Might I suggest something equally hypothetical? Pineda and Ivan Nova become best friends, forming a bond impervious to the hurtful Post headlines. In either case, we don't know til we know.
Couple the deal with the signing of Kuroda and all of a sudden you have a rotation twice as good as last year's--which was was just fine, thanks.
Really psyched to see how Pineda develops in pinstripes. Good work, Cash.
Jeff:
Great trade. Simply a great trade, and not just for the Yankees. To call the Yankees the "winner" of this trade is really misleading, as Montero steps right into that Mariners offense as arguably their best hitter, and Noesi can be stretched out to be a solid back end of the rotation starter for Seattle.
But back to the Yankees side of things. I honeslty don't know too much about Jose Campos, but as a 19 year old who has thrown very respectable statistics in the lower end of the minor leagues (14 GS, 2.32 ERA in 81.1 IP, 85/13 K/BB ratio), maybe he can amount to something in a couple of years.
The big fish here is obviously Pineda. He steps right into the middle of the Yankees rotation, and is a nice righty compliment to Sabathia. As Steve eluded to, it's also really nice to know he's under Yankees control for at least the next five seasons. However, just to keep things a little Skip Bayless for a minute, Pineda's second half stats are definitely a cause for concern (5.12 ERA in 58 innings, to go along with 19 BB). Still, he is young, as he only turns 23 this week... oh, and he can hit triple digits on the radar.
Also, as Steve mentioned, it's a positive to trade Montero since he is nothing more than a glorified DH; and with an aging and injury prone Alex Rodriguez on the hot corner, we have to wonder how many years before he becomes the Yankees every day DH (I say over/under of 2 years). Yes, Montero can hit, but hitting hasn't been the Yankees' problem. Even with an aging lineup, they still manage to be among the top offenses in baseball, and this was without Montero in the lineup. Where the Yankees have really struggled since 2009 is to have their starting rotation defined past Sabathia.
I'll use that thought to segway into the Kuroda signing. I know he put up good numbers in LA, but it's also LA, one of the notorious hitters parks, to go along with playing in the National League. I'll admit, it's the Skip Bayless in me acting up again, I just am curious how the combination of his age and the transition to the American League will inflate his statistics. The biggest reason, however, why I don't like this signing is that it delays the call up of Killer-B #1, Dellin Betances. With an impressive start to end the season against Tampa, and the statistics to back it up in the minors, I, at least, would have liked to see Betances competing for the #5 spot in the rotation this season. Now, with Kuroda and Pineda added to the rotation, there is simply no room for Betances, this season at least.
At the end of the day, despite my concerns, these two moves are exactly what the Yankees needed. There should have been no concern about the offense, or the bullpen, during the offseason. The concern stems from who fits into the rotation beyond Sabathia. Now, with these acquisitions, that answer becomes much simpler. I would have to say at this point the rotation looks like: Sabathia / Pineda / Nova / Kuroda / Burnett. Garcia replaces Noesi in the bullpen as the 6th starter / long arm, and Hughes probably gets pushed back into the bullpen; which while I don't like this, it helps knowing that Chamberlain is down for the season from TJ.
One final point... with the Pineda/Kuroda acquisitions, do the Yankees now have the best rotation in baseball, let alone the American League? I say no, but they're certainly making progress. In the National League, I still think the Giants and Phillies have better starting rotations. In the American League, it's hard to try and rationalize the Yankees rotation being better than an Angels rotation that just brought in CJ Wilson as their #3; however, the Rays, in my opinion, still have the best rotation in the American League, maybe even baseball. However, while I don't think the Yankees have the best rotation in the American League, these moves put them ahead of the Rays and Red Sox in the division, and certainly keeps them competitive with the rest of the American League, come playoff time.
Ben:
Jeff, solid analysis but to counter your inner Skip Bayless for a moment, the “cause for concern” regarding Pineda is a little overstated. While it’s true his ERA in the second half of 2011 was 5.12 (after posting a 3.03 ERA in the first half), most of the increase was due to regression rather than a decrease in skill. In fact, Pineda had a 3.14 K/BB rate in the first half and a 3.16 K/BB rate in the second half, hard to parse where his skills eroded. Therefore, without a noticeable decrease in actual skill I find their to be less concern (or a concern at all) for his second half slide making the trade a big win for the Yankees especially when you take into account everything that you guys have already alluded too.
I agree with both of your assessments on Montero, and while I would hesitate to peg him as a glorified catcher overall (as the Mariners intend to try him out at catcher) for the Yankees that is exactly what his role would be. Unless you are given extreme circumstances, when offered a top, young pitcher for a DH, you make the trade 10 times out of 10. Oh, it also doesn’t hurt when your top prospect is a teenage catching prospect with power already being compared to Jesus Montero (Gary Sanchez). Trading your excess to fix a weakness? Sounds like a win-win to me.
Regrading Hiroki Kuroda, however, I can’t say I agree with both of you. Jeff, it is exciting and fun to root for the youth to make it to the majors, but in the Yankees situation a “sure thing” is significantly more valuable than a prospect. Kuroda’s age (36) and transition from the National League to the American League certainly shed a little bit of that “sure thing” tag off Kuroda, but given his track record (3.45 ERA in almost 700 innings in the MLB), Kuroda is infinitely more likely to succeed for the Yankees compared to someone like Dellin Betances. Add in the fact he’s only a one-year commitment for the Yankees at a bargain-price for $10 million, and I have nothing bad to say about the signing.
To answer your last question Jeff, I’d actually say yes, the Yankees do have the best rotation in the American League, and it’s because of the Kuroda signing. The Yankees rotation is #1 in my book because of depth. They may not have another ace to pair with Sabathia but they have 5 solid starters, with several more waiting in the wings for the inevitable injury bug. Of course, all of this goes out the window if Matt Moore pitches like he can in 2012.
Is it February 19th yet?
I'm sure this one hurts for a lot of Yankee fans. We love prospects. And Montero's a Jesus among prospects. And we love, even more than prospects, rebutting the small-market whiners that we can harvest the farm just like the little guys. With Jesus just sniffing the majors last summer (to the tune of 4 homers and 12 RBI in his first 61 AB's), things were getting pretty exiting.
But the Yanks were always willing to deal Montero. His suspect defense pushed him into the DH slot on the depth chart--an area already cluttered with a queue of aging salary dumpsters, most likely for years to come. Do you let Montero catch, giving up runs to negate the ones he'd produce? Do you keep pushing A-Rod and Teixeira out onto the diamond, until they're incapable of crouching to scoop grounders, so that Montero can DH? Nope, you send off your best trade chip to bolster weaknesses elsewhere--SP.
Considering Cashman already dangled Montero to the Mariners to try to pry Cliff Lee for a playoff run at the trade deadline a couple years ago, getting Pineda (who's 22 and has 5 years left on his deal) is a major haul. Throw in Jorge Campos for Noesi (who had no place on the Yanks, let's be real) and voila. Cashman for the W.
People are chirping (tweeting?) that Pineda might not handle the intense scrutiny of the NY media well. Heard that one before. Might I suggest something equally hypothetical? Pineda and Ivan Nova become best friends, forming a bond impervious to the hurtful Post headlines. In either case, we don't know til we know.
Couple the deal with the signing of Kuroda and all of a sudden you have a rotation twice as good as last year's--which was was just fine, thanks.
Really psyched to see how Pineda develops in pinstripes. Good work, Cash.
Jeff:
Great trade. Simply a great trade, and not just for the Yankees. To call the Yankees the "winner" of this trade is really misleading, as Montero steps right into that Mariners offense as arguably their best hitter, and Noesi can be stretched out to be a solid back end of the rotation starter for Seattle.
But back to the Yankees side of things. I honeslty don't know too much about Jose Campos, but as a 19 year old who has thrown very respectable statistics in the lower end of the minor leagues (14 GS, 2.32 ERA in 81.1 IP, 85/13 K/BB ratio), maybe he can amount to something in a couple of years.
The big fish here is obviously Pineda. He steps right into the middle of the Yankees rotation, and is a nice righty compliment to Sabathia. As Steve eluded to, it's also really nice to know he's under Yankees control for at least the next five seasons. However, just to keep things a little Skip Bayless for a minute, Pineda's second half stats are definitely a cause for concern (5.12 ERA in 58 innings, to go along with 19 BB). Still, he is young, as he only turns 23 this week... oh, and he can hit triple digits on the radar.
Also, as Steve mentioned, it's a positive to trade Montero since he is nothing more than a glorified DH; and with an aging and injury prone Alex Rodriguez on the hot corner, we have to wonder how many years before he becomes the Yankees every day DH (I say over/under of 2 years). Yes, Montero can hit, but hitting hasn't been the Yankees' problem. Even with an aging lineup, they still manage to be among the top offenses in baseball, and this was without Montero in the lineup. Where the Yankees have really struggled since 2009 is to have their starting rotation defined past Sabathia.
I'll use that thought to segway into the Kuroda signing. I know he put up good numbers in LA, but it's also LA, one of the notorious hitters parks, to go along with playing in the National League. I'll admit, it's the Skip Bayless in me acting up again, I just am curious how the combination of his age and the transition to the American League will inflate his statistics. The biggest reason, however, why I don't like this signing is that it delays the call up of Killer-B #1, Dellin Betances. With an impressive start to end the season against Tampa, and the statistics to back it up in the minors, I, at least, would have liked to see Betances competing for the #5 spot in the rotation this season. Now, with Kuroda and Pineda added to the rotation, there is simply no room for Betances, this season at least.
At the end of the day, despite my concerns, these two moves are exactly what the Yankees needed. There should have been no concern about the offense, or the bullpen, during the offseason. The concern stems from who fits into the rotation beyond Sabathia. Now, with these acquisitions, that answer becomes much simpler. I would have to say at this point the rotation looks like: Sabathia / Pineda / Nova / Kuroda / Burnett. Garcia replaces Noesi in the bullpen as the 6th starter / long arm, and Hughes probably gets pushed back into the bullpen; which while I don't like this, it helps knowing that Chamberlain is down for the season from TJ.
One final point... with the Pineda/Kuroda acquisitions, do the Yankees now have the best rotation in baseball, let alone the American League? I say no, but they're certainly making progress. In the National League, I still think the Giants and Phillies have better starting rotations. In the American League, it's hard to try and rationalize the Yankees rotation being better than an Angels rotation that just brought in CJ Wilson as their #3; however, the Rays, in my opinion, still have the best rotation in the American League, maybe even baseball. However, while I don't think the Yankees have the best rotation in the American League, these moves put them ahead of the Rays and Red Sox in the division, and certainly keeps them competitive with the rest of the American League, come playoff time.
Ben:
Jeff, solid analysis but to counter your inner Skip Bayless for a moment, the “cause for concern” regarding Pineda is a little overstated. While it’s true his ERA in the second half of 2011 was 5.12 (after posting a 3.03 ERA in the first half), most of the increase was due to regression rather than a decrease in skill. In fact, Pineda had a 3.14 K/BB rate in the first half and a 3.16 K/BB rate in the second half, hard to parse where his skills eroded. Therefore, without a noticeable decrease in actual skill I find their to be less concern (or a concern at all) for his second half slide making the trade a big win for the Yankees especially when you take into account everything that you guys have already alluded too.
I agree with both of your assessments on Montero, and while I would hesitate to peg him as a glorified catcher overall (as the Mariners intend to try him out at catcher) for the Yankees that is exactly what his role would be. Unless you are given extreme circumstances, when offered a top, young pitcher for a DH, you make the trade 10 times out of 10. Oh, it also doesn’t hurt when your top prospect is a teenage catching prospect with power already being compared to Jesus Montero (Gary Sanchez). Trading your excess to fix a weakness? Sounds like a win-win to me.
Regrading Hiroki Kuroda, however, I can’t say I agree with both of you. Jeff, it is exciting and fun to root for the youth to make it to the majors, but in the Yankees situation a “sure thing” is significantly more valuable than a prospect. Kuroda’s age (36) and transition from the National League to the American League certainly shed a little bit of that “sure thing” tag off Kuroda, but given his track record (3.45 ERA in almost 700 innings in the MLB), Kuroda is infinitely more likely to succeed for the Yankees compared to someone like Dellin Betances. Add in the fact he’s only a one-year commitment for the Yankees at a bargain-price for $10 million, and I have nothing bad to say about the signing.
To answer your last question Jeff, I’d actually say yes, the Yankees do have the best rotation in the American League, and it’s because of the Kuroda signing. The Yankees rotation is #1 in my book because of depth. They may not have another ace to pair with Sabathia but they have 5 solid starters, with several more waiting in the wings for the inevitable injury bug. Of course, all of this goes out the window if Matt Moore pitches like he can in 2012.
Is it February 19th yet?
im wearing a mike piazza shirt right now lets go mets
ReplyDeleteHOF next year?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't say either team is the "winner" of this deal; both teams are better off moving forward.
ReplyDeletePosition players are usually worth more than SP, also Pineda has a full year of MLB service time to Montero's 60 some odd days. So it is somewhat apples to oranges; but SP was a need for the Yankees.
However, Pineda does have more option years left, so the Yankees could easily control Pineda from reaching super two by the end of this season without having to throw him on the D/L.
Also, Pineda is post Tommy John Surgery so durability is not as much of a concern as it would be with most young pitchers.
We will have to see how Pineda's FB tendencies work out in Yankee Stadium...
Who will yanks add as a lefty bat to platoon DH with A-Rod, Jeter (other old yankees who need days off)?
It's kind of silly determining winners and losers 1 day after trades, but both sides got what they needed out of this deal.
DeletePitchers in general aren't hard to find this offseason, and the Mariners could replace Pineda with an Edwin Jackson fairly easily if they wanted.
However, young, cost controlled pitchers are rare (or cost a lot - Gio/Latos), and so are hitters like Montero, so I see it as an even trade.
As for a lefty bat, I'm not sure who they will sign if anyone. They resigned Jones to hit lefties and I would have liked to see Betemit signed by them as well, but if they pickup anyone it will likely be someone like Jones.