Brief league background: 12 team, mixed keeper league with 27 man rosters - C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, Util, 9 P, 5 Bench and 2 DL slots. Each team can keep up to 10 keepers, my keepers were:
C: Mike Napoli
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Rickie Weeks
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Jose Reyes
2B/SS: Starlin Castro
OF: Justin Upton
SP: Roy Halladay
SP: James Shields
SP: C.C. Sabathia
If those 10 keepers sound ridiculous, it's because they are. However, they came at the expense of a lot of my draft picks. In an effort to go for the win last year, I mortgaged essentially my entire 2012 draft. The proof will be in the pudding below, as you see the lackluster players that I was able to draft, but for some obvious evidence note that my first pick was the 132nd pick and my second pick was the 231st. In other words, from pick 231 on I had to draft 16 players. That's the price you pay when you trade 6 future picks for Justin Upton.
Pre-Draft Strategy: I identified my main needs as closers and outfield depth. Justin Upton is admittedly quite good but in a 5 OF league with minimal high picks, getting a second, consistent outfielder was a goal of mine with my first pick (132). After that, I wanted to target late-round closer/potential closers, OF with upside (and hopefully some speed) and starting pitching with upside. Since all of my picks would be potential waiver wire fodder, it would make sense to get someone who has a chance to be very good, rather than someone who has a better chance to be decent. Lastly, since depth will be an issue, I may have to trade a top player of mine now for 2-3 players early in the season so I also wanted to target players with positional flexibility.
The Draft
Round 11: Nick Markakis (132), OF. Trying to win this year and in desperate need of OF, I needed a consistent OF and that is exactly what Markakis is. He's definitely boring, and you can likely pick up his production on the waiver wire but Markakis is a 'set it and forget it' type player, and I needed one of those with such little depth.
Round 20: Mike Carp (231), 1B/OF; Greg Holland (231), RP. Mike Carp is on the DL after attempting to make a diving catch in the opening game, so he's already a bad pick. But, he did fit into my strategy of targeting position flexibility since I needed a corner infielder and four outfielders. However, when I chose Carp I did so under the impression that a lot of the available OF get chosen immediately and they weren't. With my need for saves and other OF available in the next few rounds, I would have been better served getting potential saves with the pick. As for Holland, I needed closers (as you are well aware) and all of the guys with actual jobs were gone. Holland has a solid chance to become the Royals closer at some point this season and even if he doesn't he has value for his ERA and Ks.
Round 21: Addison Reed (250), RP. Now realizing that there were plenty of similar OF choices available with the potential saves drying up (Mike Adams, Vinnie Pestano drafted in between these picks) I had to grab another potential closer. And again, I chose a reliever who should provide value regardless if he is providing the saves. Reed, the White Sox top prospect has great strikeout potential and I'm hoping he can be like Chris Sale last year, albeit with more save opportunities. Matt Thornton may be the better option now, but Reed is the future and on a rebuilding team, I like his chances to take over at some point, even if it's not opening day.
Round 22: Ben Revere (255), OF. Ben Revere could be Michael Bourn-lite. Of course that was before I realized he may start the year in a reserve role. You know, because Trevor Plouffe should get in the way of a potentially exciting young player on a bad team. Even if Revere doesn't start, his best skill (speed) should still be useful off the bench and provide me with 25-30 SBs, and that's the low-end projection.
Round 23: Mat Gamel (266), 1B/3B; Jason Bay (274), OF. While I've been under whelmed with my choices of Mike Carp and Ben Revere, I really like Mat Gamel here. His lack of a glove and contact has made him unable to get consistent time in the majors, but with Prince Fielder gone, now is his chance to show what he can do. What's also promising is he has cut down his strikeouts over the last three years in AAA. In 2009 he had a K% of 27.8, in 2010 it was 17.8% and in 2011 it fell to 15.4%. He's fixed his biggest weakness and now has an opportunity to show it off - I like him a as a breakout, especially at this pick. As far as Jason Bay is concerned, I'm not sure why I drafted him. I didn't target him before the draft, but in the midst of drafting with a need for OF I saw and I snagged. Nobody knows how the new fences will play out in Metco Citi Field, but I'll certainly be hoping it will help JBay. A lot.
Round 24: Dayan Viciedo (279), OF; Erik Bedard (282), SP; Tim Hudson (287), SP: With James Shields, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia, I didn't need to draft pitchers at first, but I do need to fill out my staff and I feel I did a good job of that in this round. Tim Hudson will begin the year on the DL but it's hard to go wrong with his consistency. Sure, this could be the year he ages but over the last 5 years he has an ERA of 3.16 and you just don't find that in the 24th round. Expecting 200, 150 or even 100 innings out of Bedard might be too much, but so long as he keeps getting swings and misses he's an upside play when healthy. I've been hearing mixed reports about Dayan Viciedo, and while his lack of walks may hurt his real life value, in fantasy he can be solid. I'm hoping with regular playing time, he's able to hit .280 with 20 home runs, which isn't too much to ask for since Bill James, ZiPS and Steamer all project him to hit in the .270s with 20 homers. With that said, I'm beginning to realize why people don't like drafting Nick Markakis...
Round 25: Bryan LaHair (289), 1B/OF; Julio Teheran (290), SP; Chris Davis (295), 1B/3B; Glen Perkins (298), RP. I really doubled-down on the positional flexibility/upside picks here. Bryan LaHair may very well be a Quad-A player, but he demolished AAA pitching last year and is batting 4th to start the year on the Cubs. Sure, Anthony Rizzo will be breathing down his neck, but there is a chance he runs into some homers and sticks around. Chris Davis has burned me before, but drafting him in the 25th round in 2011 is a much safter bet than 6th round in 2009. This may be do or die for Davis, as he will be given a shot to play everyday on Baltimore, I'm hoping he can be Mark Reynolds Jr. I don't love Julio Teheran for this year, but it is a keeper league and he's a good handcuff to have with Tim Hudson on the DL, as Teheran is fighting for that temporarily vacant spot in the rotation. And as far as Perkins goes, I'm banking on his recent contract extension and save opportunities at the end of 2011 as evidence that he'll get a shot to close out games down the road. Matt Capps is pretty good but one case of gopheritis and he may be out of a job.
Round 26: Matt Harrison (306), SP; Phil Hughes (312), SP: It's hard to get into the nitty-gritty details of players drafted after the 300th pick but I like the chances of either Harrison or Hughes to take a step up in 2012. Matt Harrison is certainly not a top pitcher, but any lefty who throws hard with a good team around him has a chance. To expect a repeat ERA performance would be foolish, but I think people have been too quick to dismiss his 3.85 xFIP last year. As for Hughes, he's looked good this spring and is all but guaranteed a spot in the rotation...until May when Andy Pettitte may be back. Andy Pettitte may be lurking over Hughes' shoulder, but if Hughes does his job, he should keep it. I'm not expecting a budding ace, but who's to say he can't repeat 2010? Both these pitchers are in similar boats, neither will win an ERA title, but both can win a lot of games in 2012.
Round 27: Matt Lindstrom (319), RP. With my final pick I went with another potential closer. Jim Johnson has the inside track on the job, but he's never closed before, has been struggling this spring and I think the Orioles might be over the Kevin Gregg experience. It's a 27th round pick, what do you expect?
Overall, given the (lack of) picks that I had, I feel pretty happy with my draft. I had a strategy and I stuck to it, whether that will work out remains to be seen. I still have a major weakness regarding closers/saves and depth, I will either need to fix that by breaking up my core in a trade or have good fortune with Reed, Holland, Lindstrom and/or Perkins gaining the closer's role. I'm still pissed off about that Mike Carp pick, regardless of the injury, but I'm also excited about some of my break out picks (LaHair, Gamel and Viciedo), if one of them hits it will be a win. If none of them hit I may regret trading all of my picks away.
What say you?
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