Astros Making Small But Good Moves

A couple of weeks ago the Astros traded their "closer" Wilton Lopez to the Colorado Rockies for starting pitcher Alex White. I put closer in quotations because closing is more of a role than a skill, and Lopez only received that role because several players ahead of him stunk up the joint. Nonetheless, Lopez has been a solid reliever for the Astros. In the last three seasons Wilton Lopez has pitched 204 innings out of the pen with a 2.64 ERA and a 5.16 K/BB ratio. That's pretty fantastic and only three pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched) had a better K/BB ratio than Lopez last year but I will remind you that Lopez pitched out of the bullpen. Lopez does his job very well and he very well might continue to do it for the Rockies but a rebuilding team isn't going to rebuild around players like Wilton Lopez. 

A rebuilding team might not do it around Alex White either, but whether or not Alex White becomes anything is almost irrelevant. Alex White is a starting pitcher, at least for now. White was drafted by the Indians with the 15th overall pick in 2009. Before the 2010 season Baseball America ranked White as the 65th best prospect and before the 2011 season they ranked him 47th. In July of 2011, White was traded by the Indians in the Ubaldo Jiminez trade and since then White's struggled in the majors. In 30 games (27 starts) and 134.1 innings pitched on the Rockies White's ERA is 6.30 with peripheral numbers that are just as ugly. 

However, White has some good pedigree, a chance to be a starting pitcher and he's both younger and cheaper than Lopez. Those are all good things. Most relievers are failed starters anyway and if White can't stay in the rotation the chances are he can be a solid reliever. Like Lopez, White's arsenal allows him to kill worms at a solid rate (i.e. get ground balls) and although he's lacked control at the major league level, White has a career 2.7 BB/9 in the minors as a starter. At best White can muster it together and provide valuable cheap and cost controlled innings as a starter, at worst he could mimic Wilton Lopez' role out of the pen. 

By no means is this a killer move for the Astros but it's a solid one as Wilton Lopez wasn't going to be on the next good Astros team (if/when it arrives in the AL West).  Also, it has to be mentioned that Lopez missed time last season with an elbow injury. A person that has elbow problems and throws baseballs for a living isn't a great combination. 

Put simply, these are the kind of moves the Astros should make.

And they continue to make them...

Today the Astros made another small but smart trade, swapping  left-handed minor leaguer Rob Rasmussen for John Ely. Acquired as one of the pieces in the midseason Carlos Lee trade, Rasmussen, 23 pitched in 54.1 innings AA Corpus Christi posting a 4.80 ERA. Meanwhile, John Ely has pitched 115.1 innings with a 5.70 ERA in the majors. 

So why was this a good trade?  Although he has an ugly ERA in the major leagues, Ely 26, threw 168.2 innings at AAA this year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA while striking out 165 batters and walking only 36. That's pretty good and enough to be named both the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year award and the Dodgers' Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Ely hasn't been able to fully transfer his stuff to the major league level but it's also worth nothing that his 4.15 FIP might indicate a brighter future if given ample opportunity. The Astros are in a position to afford him that opportunity and with some luck Ely could be a league average pitcher. When you consider the deals that some starters have received recently (Jeremy Guthrie 3 years/$25 million) this looks like a great trade by the Astros. 

Like Alex White and waiver wire pickup Philip Humber, John Ely might not help much but he's cheap and has some upside in the rotation. The Astros are still a ways away but General Manager Jeff Luhnow has shown a knack for pickups on the scrap heap and although the process may be slow, the Astros are certainly in good hands. 

Quick Thoughts

Some quick thoughts on news around the league:

• Cody Ross met with the Rangers last night. Compared to Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, Ross isn't exciting but he's likely to be an above average hitter at a fraction of the price of Hamilton. I don't think the Rangers are going to enter the season without some sort of splash and although Ross isn't a splash, it's a good start.

• Nick Swisher was wined and dined by the Indians this week and will continue to meet with other teams before making a decision. Nothing is imminent in Cleveland, but if they were to sign Swisher, trading Choo for Trevor Bauer and replacing him with Swisher would be a solid move. For what it's worth, if the Indians still needed young pitching this time time next year they could probably do a similar deal with Swisher like they did with Choo.

• Michael Bourn must really hate the Twins. The Phillies and Nationals both entered the offseason with a hole in center field but the Twins filled those needs trading Denard Span to Washingon and Ben Revere to Philadelphia. Bourn remains the best free agent hitter (counting fielding) available and both the Mariners and Rangers might have some interest, but Bourn likely won't make as much money as he expected. An expensive one-year deal for Bourn might be in the best interest for both parties where Bourn can angle again for a multi-year deal next offseason.

• I didn't give my take on the Youkilis signing so here's an abbreviated version: 1) The Yankees don't have A-Rod for the first few months and can't necessarily rely on him when he does return so it's a smart and necessary signing for them. 2) I can finally root for a fellow chosen one. 3) Thus far, the Yankees are intent on getting under the 2014 budget but with all of these one-year deals this offseason and Cano and Granderson free agents next year, what will their roster look like? They have to replace or resign Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis and still don't have a real catcher. They are old. 

• I'd rather spend $80 million on Anibal Sanchez over $147 million for Zack Greinke. Greinke 2010-2012: 604 IP, 3.83 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Sanchez 2010-2012: 587 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. However, I feel I might prefer Shaun Marcum on whatever deal he will receive. Marcum 2010-2012: 520 IP, 3.62 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Macum obviously isn't as durable or as good of a pitcher as Sanchez or Greinke, but I don't think the difference is worth what will likely be over $100 million. Thinking about it now, wouldn't the Royals be better off signing Marcum and keeping Wil Myers? Do I have to answer my own hypothetical question?

The Dickey Trade

Apologies if I'm forgetting a few but the following is a list of things that Mets fans could cheer for in 2012:

• One game behind the Nationals on June 1st
• Johan's no hitter
• R.A. Dickey

That's a short list and now, pending a physical, the Mets will be without Dickey for 2013. 

The Mets will undoubtedly be less interesting to watch next year and as much as it may hurt to see Dickey go, it's also probably the best move for the team's future. The Mets apparently tried to resign Dickey but considering the reigning Cy Young Award winner with a 2.95 ERA over the last three seasons only wanted $30 million for three years, it's hard to imagine the Mets really wanted to keep Dickey. Maybe they felt Dickey was too old, maybe they felt it would be silly to spend money now on a team that can't win, or maybe the Mets are just broke. I don't know the answer but the fact remains the Mets couldn't (in their mind) keep Dickey. With that in place, trading him, Josh Thole and a prospect to the Blue Jays for Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and another prospect is a smart move for the Metsies. 

About Those Prospects

Travis d'Arnaud entered 2012 ranked as the #17 prospect by Baseball America.  Unfortunately he tore a knee ligament in June but in 303 plate appearances for AAA Las Vegas d'Arnaud hit .333/.380/.595 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Las Vegas is often home to some awesome stats as Dave Cameron points out, but d'Arnaud is one of the top prospects in baseball and maybe more importantly, he plays a position (catcher) that the Mets are in dire need of. 

I'd be lying if I said I was fluent in all things Noah Syndergaard before hearing the Jays and Mets were discussing a R.A. Dickey trade. Nonetheless, the kid can pitch. Before the season, Baseball America ranked Syndergaard as the Jays seventh best prospect and having the best fastball in their system. Also, just a month ago, Marc Hulet ranked him as the third best prospect on the Jays. Syndergaard might not develop secondary pitches to stay in the rotation but at worst he'll be an effective reliever with a big boy fastball and at best he can sit towards the top of the Mets rotation.  

As well all know, potential is just potential and There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect but come 2015 the Mets could have an every day catcher who can hit and a pitcher joining Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in a formidable rotation. However you want to slice it, it's a good return for Dickey, a player who by the way the Mets were playing it, wasn't necessarily going to be on the team in 2014. 

Win Win

For several years now Alex Anthopoulos and Jays and have been building for the future -- trading Roy Halladay for what in turn became Travis d'Arnaud and Anthony Gose, upgrading Brandons in trading League for Morrow, signing Jose Bausita to a five-year $65 million deal, getting rid of Vernon Wells and his contract and buying low on Colby Rasmus. Like any General Manager or player, Anthopoulos hasn't batted 1.000, but damn has he come close. 

Of course building for the future will only be a perpetual place holder unless the future becomes the present and that's exactly what Anthopoulos has done this offseason. Starting with the mega-deal with the Marlins and ending (for the moment) with acquiring R.A. Dickey, the Jays have gone from intriguing team to AL East favorite in a matter of months. You can argue about Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle being overpaid, mention Dickey's old age or bring up Josh Johnson's injury history and make some decent points but when you're in the Jays position, those are the type of risks that could be extremely profitable. The Jays smelled the blood with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays* all taking steps back and regardless of what their 2013 results are, the Jays process was smart and sound. 

*Yes, the Orioles made the postseason last year but I'm still not a believer. Sorry O's fans. 

Unlike games, trades don't have to have a winner and a loser and in this case both Mets and the Jays are winners. The 2015 Mets have a brigther future than they did a week ago and the Jays roster is looking pretty, pretty good.

Rotation

SP1: R.A. Dickey

SP2: Josh Johnson

SP3: Brandon Morrow 

SP4: Mark Buehrle 

SP5: Rickey Romero

Lineup

1. Jose Reyes - SS

2. Melky Cabrera - LF

3. Jose Bautista - RF

4. Edwin Encarnacion - 1B

5. Colby Rasmus - CF

6. Brett Lawrie - 3B

7. Adam Lind - DH

8. J.P. Arencibia - C

9. Emilio Bonifacio - 2B

The Jays might not have the best rotation or lineup in the league, but their combination might be the most impressive. The Yankees won't go down without a fight and the Rays always manage to figure something out (even if they downgraded with the Shields trade) but anyone denying the Jays as AL East favorite is just used to how things used to be. 

Ugh

It's days like today where I'm thankful I can blabber about baseball to an audience, however small it may be. But it's also a day I choose not to.  I can't fathom what it's like for the families and people of Newtown and I don't pretend to. We only have right now and in this moment my thoughts are with my loved ones and the ones who have been lost.

Kindergartners are supposed to worry about how comfortable their nap mat is and if they want to trade their Yoo-Hoo at lunch. 

On one hand I feel it might be 'too soon' to have a discussion but I also fear we're constantly too late. We can't prevent crazy but we can certainly try to disarm it.

RIP children. 

Josh Hamilton to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Last year the Rangers let starter C.J. Wilson leave via free agency and he signed with the Angels.

This year the Rangers let outfielder Josh Hamilton leave via free agency and he signed with the Angels.

I'm sensing a strong rivalry here. We can't forget that the Angels have lost 60% of their starting rotation, so it's not safe to say who's best team in the division. Which is also kind of funny to say because the A's won the division last year. 2013 is going to be fun. 

The Rangers might feel this way after hearing
the news.

Alex Anthopoulos and Brian Cashman get a lot of credit for being ninjas, making large offseason moves without anyone expecting it, but Angels GM Jerry Dipoto is as ninja as they come. The Angels have now signed the best available free agent hitter (and likely best overall player) the last two offseasons, and nobody saw it coming. Now, whether or not signing Josh Hamilton to a $125 million contract for five years is a smart decision remains to be seen but what we can see is that the Angels have a lot of money to spend. 

We can also see that the Angels have a terrific lineup. What ever happened to pitching and defense? I guess Scioscia will have to adjust. For now, their lineup might look something like the following:

1. Mike Trout - CF
2. Howie Kendrick - 2B
3. Albert Pujols - 1B
4. Josh Hamilton - RF
5. Kendry Morales - DH
6. Mark Trumbo - LF
7. Alberto Callaspo - 3B
8. Chris Iannetta - C
9. Erik Aybar - SS

That's not bad. In fact it's pretty fantastic. Albert Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball for a decade, Mike Trout was the best player in baseball last year and when healthy and not swinging at balls out of the zone, Josh Hamilton is one of the best in the game as well. All three of these guys now hit in the same lineup. This is some pretty remarkable stuff, and I'm on the edge of my seat wondering what Texas' next move will be. Something tells me Nick Swisher is glad he hasn't signed yet.

Back to Hamilton. Josh Hamilton is about as risky as a position player can come. In fact, if Hamilton had no history of drug abuse, he'd still be considered a significant risk as he's no longer young at age 31 and hasn't played a full season in four years. As I mentioned, the Angels lost 60% of their starting rotation (Haren, Greinke, Santana) so one could consider signing Greinke to be a safer or smarter play. If anyone could be considered a greater risk than a pitcher it would be Hamilton, right? While that may be so, I'd still rather put my eggs (or money) in Hamilton's basket over someone relying on their pitching arm. 

Since 2010 Hamilton has averaged 5.8 fWAR and 5.1 rWAR per season. As for Greinke, people can't seem to make up their mind how valuable he's been averaging 4.7 fWAR, 3.1 RA9-Wins and 2.6 rWAR over that time. However, judging just the last three years is pretty arbitrary considering it includes Hamilton's MVP year while conveniently missing out on 2009 where he only played in 89 games, the same year that Greinke had the year of his life with a 2.16 ERA and worth well over 9 wins by any measure you would care to use. 

I chose numbers from 2010-2012 to show Hamilton as being a slightly better player recently. You could just as easily choose numbers from 2009-2012 on to show Greinke being a slightly better player. Greinke's contract pays him $24.5 million per season and Hamilton's pays him $25 million per season but the kicker for me is that Hamilton signed for five years while Greinke signed for six. Both have to be considered risks, I'll take the shorter contract.  

We know the Angels have money to spend and if they're going to spend it I've made a case for Hamilton being a smarter play than Greinke. They do still need starting pitchers behind Jered Weaver and whatever remains in Tommy Hanson's right arm so I don't believe their work is finished. Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo are some intriguing trade chips that should fetch the Angels someone to throw 180 average innings if they desired to go that route. Regardless of what they do next though, they now have a terrific lineup, arguably the best in the biz and hurt their division rival in the process. That shouldn't be considered just a small bonus, it's quite large. The Rangers know this, have a lot of money of their own to spend and are likely gearing up their counter-punch as we speak. I'm excited to see what's next - Justin Upton, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher anyone? 2013 is definitely going to be fun. 

Rumors, Rumors, Rumors and Ben Revere

If a trade actually materializes I will be sure to chirp in but right now all we know is that half of the teams in the league are trading for:

• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Justin Upton
• Wil Myers
• R.A. Dickey
• Curtis Granderson
• James Shields

And if teams aren't looking for a blockbuster deal they're looking to sign Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke. 

However, it's not all rumors as one interesting move has been made.

The Phillies, who have been linked with both Michael Bourn and Curtis Granderson have finally found their center fielder in Ben Revere who was traded from the Twins in exchange for Trevor May and Vance Worley. Trevor May is a solid starting pitching prospect and although he struggled in AA this year (4.87 ERA in 159.2 innings) he comes with some nice pedigree, ranking #69 by Baseball America before last season.  Additionally, Vance Worley is an above average starter who should provide some useful innings for the Twins, something they really need. Worley's inability to miss bats (career 5.5% SwStr%) might be a cause for concern for some teams but with the Twins aversion to the stirkeout, they'll gladly take him.

May and Worley is a bit much for a player who might not hit a ball over the fence all year in Ben Revere but he's a terrific CF and is a better play than $75 million for Michael Bourn or whatever his price will end up being. The Phillies didn't break the farm and they now have a cheap starting CF for a few years. 

After trading Denard Span and now Ben Revere, the Twins out field is barren and borderline non-existent. I suppose Josh Willingham can "play" left field, but whether or not he's considered an outfielder is another story. Either way, the Twins traded two outfielders this offseason who weren't stars, have prospect Aaron Hicks likely ready to play CF at some point in 2013 and received three starting pitchers in return. Not bad. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Zack Greinke, Jabari Parker and John Calipari

I'm not calling John Calipari a cheater. Although, I do wonder why UMASS never actually participated in the 1996 NCAA Tournament and why Derrick Rose' technically never played at Memphis. 

Anywho, the point is that I went to Indiana University. That's not the point but it's a start that will get me to the point. Indiana and Memphis (where Calipari coached at the time) were often targeting the same basketball recruits. That's fine, everyone enjoys a competition except for the fact that Memphis always seemed to get their guy. Whether it was Rodney Carney declining to stay in state to play at IU or Derrick Rose deciding to go to Memphis instead of playing with his AAU teammate Eric Gordon, Memphis ended up with their player. IU ended up with Kelvin Sampson, but that's an entirely different post for an entirely different blog. 

I might not be trying to hide the fact (or possible fact) but I'm also not trying to say that Calipari is a cheater. What I am saying is that for whatever reason (maybe it's World Wide Wes) when a recruit is deciding between Calipari and someone else, Calipari wins.*

*Ben's baseball basketball bias could be playing a role here but it was a trend worth watching then, and it remains a trend worth watching now especially as Calipari reloads with the top freshman players every year. However, at Kentucky the script has kind of changed. It's harder to sell someone on UMASS or Memphis - Kentucky can sell itself to the top recruits. It also doesn't hurt to have the best salesperson in the world working for ya in Calipari. Whatever fishy exercises he might have used in the past, Calipari doesn't have to use at Kentucky.  But even though the script has changed the results remain the same for his recruits. 

And this might be happening with the Dodgers. 

Zack Greinke is "going through the process" off his free agent tour but is there any doubt where he will sign? With the way the Dodgers are running things at this point, are they really going to let a few million bucks get in the way of signing their target? 

I'm sure Jabari Parker will go through his recruiting process but I'd also bet on him going to Kentucky. There is a great joke here talking about how Kentucky also won't let a few million bucks get in the way of signing their target, but I won't take that low hanging fruit. Sometimes fruit tastes delicious though. 

The Angels want Greinke. The Rangers want Greinke. The Dodgers want Greinke. The Dodgers might make $280 million per year on TV revenue alone. The Dodgers are signing Greinke. 

It's easy to hate Calipari and the Dodgers for how they conduct their business but the two are just playing by the rules...for the most part. I don't particularly like Stuart Scott but sometimes you can't hate the playa, you have to hate the game. 

John Calipari and Kentucky always get their guy. It seems as though the Dodgers for the foreseeable future will too. Damn. 

UPDATE 3:40 PM I forgot to mention how I'm a Yankee fan and as a Yankee fan, I understand why some (or all) fans would hate them, or us in this case. That doesn't preclude me from being a baseball fan who is feeling slightly disappointed that Greinke will probably play in Los Angeles instead of the Anaheim section of Los Angeles.

UPDATE: 1/16 3:30PM So Greinke signed with the Dodgers and Parker signed with Duke. I can't say this makes me happy as Parker went to Duke, but it's nice to know that Calipari can't always get what Calipari wants. Oh wait, new #1 prospect Andrew Wiggins is still available, and Cal is interested? Oy vey!

Dan Haren to Washinton

Last year the Washington Nationals had one of the best starting rotations in the league. Actually, they arguably had the best rotation in baseball given that they led the NL in ERA, led the MLB in FIP, had the 4th best xFIP in the majors and the second most FIP-WAR in baseball. Not bad. If you care about RA9-Wins, the Nationals rotation was still great, finishing just behind the Rays for the second most in baseball.

Last year the Nationals also signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal to be their 4th starter.  Edwin Jackson threw 189.2 innings with a 99 FIP-, helping the Nationals rotation which helped the team to the best record in baseball (98 - 64). 

Edwin Jackson is now looking for a multi-year deal and therefore won't be returning to Washington in 2013. In his place the Nationals signed another pitcher to a one-year deal and this time it's Dan Haren who received a one-year $13 million contract.  Dan Haren wasn't great last year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA in 176.2 innings with secondary stats that suggested he wasn't just unlucky (4.24 FIP/4.00 xFIP). It's well documented that Dan Haren struggled from a back injury which clearly shows up in his stats and his velocity-Haren's average fastball velocity was 88.5 mph this year, down from the consistent 90 mph velocity he showed previously.  

It's why the Angels didn't pick up Dan Haren's option, even though they are in desperate need of starting pitching and it's why he only received a one-year deal from the Nationals. For the previous five years, Haren was one of the best (if not most underrated) starting pitchers in baseball. There was a reason why the Diamondbacks traded Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Andreson Chris Carter and three other players for Haren in 2007, although the Diamondbacks may regret giving up that much. 

Back injuries. Those are never good, especially for  pitchers, as David Wells' game 5 of the 2003 World Series against he Marlins can illustrate. It's unlikely that Haren, with back worries at age 33 will return to his ace-like status for the Nationals but it's also unlikely that they will need that. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez are three top pitchers, the Nationals don't need a fourth top pitcher.  Edwin Jackson threw ~190 innings in 2012 at a league average level and helped the Nationals win the division. An unhealthy Dan Haren threw ~175 innings at a slightly below league average level. If Dan Haren pitches just 5 to 10% better, this will be a solid one-year deal for the Nationals. If Haren returns closer to his pre-2012 form, this will be a fantastic sign for the Nationals.

Overall, I'm a big fan of one-year contracts. I'm also a big fan of getting guys that have performed at a top level recently, especially if we know the reason why they slipped. We know Dan Haren slipped because of his back, we don't know if he will come back (pun intended) but either way this move is unlikely to hurt the Nationals and has a decent chance of really helping. 

Live Blogging Monday

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville started today. You can expect a lot of news over the next week. Stay tuned as I live blog some updates and commentary throughout the day.

11:57 am: The Rays signed James Loney for 1-year $2 million. Loney has been a disappointing hitter throughout his career posting a meager career 103 wRC+ which simply isn't enough production from first base. With that said, now on the Rays I fully expect James Loney to get playing time in mid-April and finish with the best season of his career. I kid, I kid, sort of.

12:06 pm: The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli to a three-year $39 million deal. Napoli should be a beast in Fenway and fills their first base need. While this might be a slight overpay given Napoli's 2012 season, Napoli should receive consistent playing time primarily at first, something he hasn't really had his entire career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nap come closer to his fantastic 2011 season when he batted  .320/.414/.631.

12:15 pm: Alex Rodriguez is having hip surgery (again) and this time he is expected to miss more time, potentially 3-6 months. The Yankees now have a big need on the left side of the infield to say the least. With Jeter also recovering from injury, Eduardo Nunez and Eric Chavez can't be expected to hold down the fort for an extended period of time. Stephen Drew has been linked with the Yankees and with the recent A-Rod news I'd wager he's a near lock to sign with them very soon. It's also likely that we will start hearing some big names like Chase Headley mentioned in rumors. Stay tuned.