Dan Haren to Washinton

Last year the Washington Nationals had one of the best starting rotations in the league. Actually, they arguably had the best rotation in baseball given that they led the NL in ERA, led the MLB in FIP, had the 4th best xFIP in the majors and the second most FIP-WAR in baseball. Not bad. If you care about RA9-Wins, the Nationals rotation was still great, finishing just behind the Rays for the second most in baseball.

Last year the Nationals also signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal to be their 4th starter.  Edwin Jackson threw 189.2 innings with a 99 FIP-, helping the Nationals rotation which helped the team to the best record in baseball (98 - 64). 

Edwin Jackson is now looking for a multi-year deal and therefore won't be returning to Washington in 2013. In his place the Nationals signed another pitcher to a one-year deal and this time it's Dan Haren who received a one-year $13 million contract.  Dan Haren wasn't great last year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA in 176.2 innings with secondary stats that suggested he wasn't just unlucky (4.24 FIP/4.00 xFIP). It's well documented that Dan Haren struggled from a back injury which clearly shows up in his stats and his velocity-Haren's average fastball velocity was 88.5 mph this year, down from the consistent 90 mph velocity he showed previously.  

It's why the Angels didn't pick up Dan Haren's option, even though they are in desperate need of starting pitching and it's why he only received a one-year deal from the Nationals. For the previous five years, Haren was one of the best (if not most underrated) starting pitchers in baseball. There was a reason why the Diamondbacks traded Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Andreson Chris Carter and three other players for Haren in 2007, although the Diamondbacks may regret giving up that much. 

Back injuries. Those are never good, especially for  pitchers, as David Wells' game 5 of the 2003 World Series against he Marlins can illustrate. It's unlikely that Haren, with back worries at age 33 will return to his ace-like status for the Nationals but it's also unlikely that they will need that. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez are three top pitchers, the Nationals don't need a fourth top pitcher.  Edwin Jackson threw ~190 innings in 2012 at a league average level and helped the Nationals win the division. An unhealthy Dan Haren threw ~175 innings at a slightly below league average level. If Dan Haren pitches just 5 to 10% better, this will be a solid one-year deal for the Nationals. If Haren returns closer to his pre-2012 form, this will be a fantastic sign for the Nationals.

Overall, I'm a big fan of one-year contracts. I'm also a big fan of getting guys that have performed at a top level recently, especially if we know the reason why they slipped. We know Dan Haren slipped because of his back, we don't know if he will come back (pun intended) but either way this move is unlikely to hurt the Nationals and has a decent chance of really helping.