Harvey, Johan and Dickey

When I spoke about the R.A. Dickey trade earlier this offseason, I listed three things that the Mets could cheer for in 2012:

• One game behind the Nationals on June 1st

• Johan's no hitter

• R.A. Dickey

Of course the Mets would no longer have R.A. Dickey to cheer for in 2013. I was a fan of the Mets haul, but I listed that to illustrate the lack of excitement to be expected this season.

Of course I was wrong because, Matt Harvey. Matt Harvey leads the MLB in WAR, has a 2.27 ERA and seemingly broke FIP putting up a 1.99 number. He gets more groundballs (47.7% GB%) than most strikeout pitchers and his K/BB is/was only bested by Adam Wainwright. Dude is legit.

Of course I wasn't totally wrong because, pitchers and their injuries. You don't have to be a Mets fan to feel the pain of Matt Harvey's injury. I'm not a Mets fan but I've gone out of my way to see Matt Harvey live at Citifield and to watch his games on TV. I'm certainly not the only baseball fan that does this and I could also say the same thing about Pedro Martinez several years ago and Johan Santana too. I don't know if the Mets have worse luck than any other team with pitching injuries, but in the last few years every ace they have procured has either been traded away or vanished due to injury.

The Mets weren't likely to be contending in 2014 but 2013 with Harvey and Wright was watchable baseball, 2014 might be a little less so. But, the people over at Ben's Baseball Bias like to be a little optimistic so here is what the Mets have to look forward to in 2014:

• Rafael Montero. 2.43 ERA and 7.20 K/BB in AA this year and has held his own after a promotion to AAA. 
• Noah Syndergaard. He has improved his performance since promotion in AA with 11.5 K/9 at Binghampton. Overall, across A/AA this season he has a 3.06 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 117.2 innings.
• Travis d'Arnaud. Injury bug seems to find him but his improved plate discipline in AAA this year seems to be carrying over to the majors with a 19.4 BB%, albeit in the extremely small sample size of 9 games.
• Zach Wheeler. Holding his own in the majors with 94.5 mph on his fastball and a 3.42/4.17/4.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP. The last pitching prospect took a big step forward in his first full season in the majors, Wheeler could follow. 
• The Dickey Trade. R.A. Dickey is a far cry from what he was with the Mets last year and at 38 years old he's probably not coming back. The Mets got two bullet points for him!

There is also this:

Thank you everyone for the kind words and support. I may be done this year, but I will be back next year for April 1.
— Matt Harvey (@MattHarvey33) August 27, 2013

Harvey is (probably) getting ahead of himself, claiming he'll be pitching in April but unlike the Yankees, I doubt the Mets GM is going to tell Harvey to "shut the fuck up." My money is on Harvey eating his words tweets but fuck it, bravado can certainly soften the blow.

Still, it's depressing to think about Matt Harvey, just like it was depressing to think about Johan Santana or losing a Cy Young award winner in the offseason. The Mets unfortunately are used to this. Fortunately it's a little different this time even if it doesn't feel that way right now. 2014 has a few bullet points and 2015 isn't too far away.

Revisiting the Morse Trade

During the offseason, Mike Morse was involved in a three-team trade with the Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners.

There was a player to be named later in the trade who we know as Ian Krol, but to recap the totality of the trade:

• Michael Morse went from Washington to Seattle. 
• A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen and Ian Krol went from Oakland to Washington. 
• John Jaso went from Seattle to Oakland. 

I had a few words to say about this trade when it initially went down:

I like this deal for the A's, trading pitching prospects on a team with plenty of young, pitching depth for a catcher who might lead the team in OBP has to be considered a smart move. I also like this trade for the Nationals as Morse didn't have a spot on the team once the Nationals signed Adam LaRoche.  But as far as the Mariners are concerned, I'm not a huge fan of the deal. [...]

The chances of this deal really backfiring on the Mariners in any truly meaningful way might be slim but still, color me skeptical on this deal for the M's, a win for the A's and a win for the N's. 

Let's see how all the parties are doing now:

Oakland: The A's are currently 2.5 games back of Texas for the division but still have a three game advantage for the second Wild Card spot. Jaso has stepped to the plate 249 times and so far has hit .271/.387/.372 for a 120 wRC+. Those are solid numbers for a catcher but Jaso's been on the DL since suffering a concussion in late July. Jaso's maintained his on-base skills but his ISO has slipped from .180 in 2012 to a meager .101 this year.

Washington: The Nationals have been a disappointment this year with 13 games in between them and the Braves although they are a more reasonable 7 games behind in the Wild Card. With Adam LaRoche at first and an outfield of Werth/Span/Harper, it's unlikely that Morse would have made a difference in their struggles. Meanwhile, Ian Krol (3.63 SIERA) could be a useful bullpen piece. Down on the farm, Blake Treinen has thrown 113.2 innings with a 3.2 ERA in AA and AJ Cole has looked quite dominant since being promoted to AA - 9.86 K/9, 1.88 BB/9 2.58 ERA in 38.1 innings.

Seattle: The Mariners are 59-72 and Mike Morse has a 91 wRC+ in 307 PAs. Morse hit 8 home runs in April but since then has done a whole lot of nothing.

I didn't like the trade for the Mariners the day it happened and Mike Morse has certainly done nothing to change that. Jaso fits in very well with the A's mix and match and depth strategy but, looking back on it, Washington is the big winner in this deal.

AJ Cole and Blake Treinen could never pitch an inning in the majors but Morse was an upcoming FA without a place to play and FWIW in 2013 Morse has -0.9 WAR for Seattle while Krol has -0.2 in Washington. Neither have been good but Krol has been less bad and this isn't even considering the potential upside of AJ Cole.

Cole's stock is/was down following a disastrous 2012 in Oakland's farm system where he was demoted from Stockton (A+) to Burlington (A). However, 2013 has been a different story. He might not return to top-100 prospect status but across two levels this year, Cole's thrown 135.2 innings with 144 strikeouts against just 31 walks. Three healthy arms for Mike Morse would represent a big win for Washington, but Cole and his 95 mph fastball might give them much, much more.

UPDATE: Michael Morse was traded from the Mariners to the Orioles in exchange for Xavier Avery. So, for a switch hitting catcher under team control with a 132 OPS+ in his last 610 plate appearances, the Mariners received Xavier Avery. No offense to Mr. Avery (.703 OPS in AA/AAA this year) but this trade is a certified loss for the Mariners.

Buck it! The Pirates are Trying for the Playoffs

As it currently stands the Pirates are half a game behind the Cardinals for the division lead. The Pirates have a large cushion in the Wild Card race but the Wild Card ain't what it used to be and my best, educated guess is that the Pirates would like to secure at least a five-game playoff series, not just a one game Wild Card playoff.

Will Buck's awesome mask
come to Pittsburgh?

With that said, the Buccos made a fairly sizable trade today, acquiring John Buck and Marlon Byrd from the Mets in exchange for minor leaguer Dilson Herrera and a player to be named later. Dilson Herrera isn't a top-100 prospect but he's hardly a non-prospect either. Herrera has played both second and third base in the minors and as a 19 year old in A ball this year Herrera has hit .265/.330/.421, good for a 115 wRC+. He's not without flaws, otherwise the Pirates wouldn't trade him for Buck n' Byrd, but a teenager that plays the infield with some speed and pop is good to have in your minor league system. Considering Byrd is an upcoming free agent and Travis d'Arnaud has made his debut in Queens, the Mets were smart to get any future value, and Herrera is certainly that.

A good trade for the Mets doesn't equate to a bad trade for the Pirates however as this deal seems to be of the win-win variety. Russell Martin has been one of the best players on the Pirates this year and John Buck certainly won't be replacing him, but he'll be a useful upgrade over Tony Sanchez and/or Michael McKenry.

Starling Marte is on the DL with a sprained finger and while he heals, Marlon Byrd will be an adequate replacement. When Marte is back, Byrd, along with Jose Tabata should adequately roam right field. The Pirates shouldn't expect Marlon Byrd to continue his career year (135 wRC+) but he won't need to as he helps their depth, particularly against left-handed pitching. Byrd has a .412 wOBA against lefties this year and even in his (mostly) middling career he's put up a solid .346 wOBA against southpaws.

The Pirates have smartly improved their major league roster without letting go of any major prospect, and they have one of the better farm systems in the league. Marlon Byrd and John Buck aren't likely to be game changers in the stretch run, but any difference can help move the needle and with only half a game separating the Pirates from the Cardinals it just might be enough.

Dumpster Diving and Defending Rodriguez

Last night Ryan Dempster threw one pitch behind A-Rod's feet, two pitches inside and one that finally hit him.

Even a Red Sox homer like Peter Gammons couldn't deny that Dempster intentionally hit Rodriguez. However, Ryan Dempster insists he was just trying to pitch inside:

Dempster said after Sunday’s loss to the Yankees that he didn’t hit Alex Rodriguez intentionally, even though it appeared to most that the right-hander plunked A-Rod on purpose in the second inning. Dempster said that he was simply trying to pitch inside, and that there are no issues between him and Rodriguez.

Dempster's 4.77 ERA, 4.71 FIP and 3.96 BB/9 would lead us too believe that he could just a bad pitcher who has no ability to control his pitches inside but it's a fairly safe assumption that he did in on purpose. And people seemed to like that purpose. Jeff Pearlman loves Dempster this morning, and a quick Ryan Dempster search on Twitter should lead you to several people, both high profile and low brow fans who agree with Dempster taking a shot (or four) on Alex Rodriguez.

When fan hatred gets out of equilibrium, I tend to root for the guy being hated. This is why I actively root for LeBron James, defend Tony Romo and could be classified as an A-Rod apologist as well. After last night all the above remains true except I am rooting more for Alex than ever before.

Whether Ryan Dempster threw at A-Rod because he's playing through his appeal and affecting a playoff race or for some personal beef, I don't know. I do know that it's slightly disingenuous to call Dempster a hero while he plays on the same team as David Ortiz, who failed a drug test. I do know that it's more dangerous to throw consecutive 90+ mph fastballs at someone than it is to use a substance to hit baseballs longer. I do know that allowing Dempster to stay in the game gives other teams incentive to play the hero card and throw at A-Rod again.

I'm a little biased as a fan of the Yankees but of a fan of comedy as well, I am hoping that A-Rod continues to play well (he has a a 150 wRC+ so far this year). I understand the frustration that Alex Rodriguez is playing through his appeal but this is the rule that the players agreed to. There is no place for intentionally throwing at a batter like Dempster did last night, especially if he doesn't have to pay a price and there is no place for calling him a hero if he can't even own up to it.

I don't like Stuart Scott but I'll quote him here: "Don't hate the playa, hate the game collective bargaining agreement that the MLBPA signed."

Stop Being Surprised

The new buzz around steroids and PEDs is that Albert Pujols is/was juicing. 

Granted, this is just hearsay from ex-ball player Jack Clark who has a radio show and plenty of incentive to ruffle the feathers for viewership. This is at least somewhat obvious in that he throws Justin Verlander's name under the bus due with no reason other than his struggles this year:

“Verlander was like Nolan Ryan, he threw 97, 98, 100 miles an hour from the first inning to the ninth inning,” Clark said on the air. “He got that big contract, now he can barely reach 92, 93. What happened to it? He has no arm problems, nothing’s wrong. It’s just the signs are there.

“The greed ... they juice up, they grab the money and it’s just a free pass to steal is the way I look at it.” 

However, although Clark's juice on Pujols' juice is still hearsay, it is at least somewhat more convincing. Chris Mihlfeld is a former personal trainer of Pujols and a few years back he was connected with Jason Grimsley, who he also trained and who admitted to steroid use. That alone doesn't mean much but Clark is claiming that Mihfield told him that Pujols was using. 

Now, whether or not there is any meat to Clark's claims, I don't know. As I said, he would seemingly have incentive to exaggerate a few points but he'd also have a lot of reasons to not wrongfully throw a guy like Albert Pujos under the bus. Plus, his claims on Justin Verlander's use are just idiotic and deserving of it's own take-down post. 

Either way, if it comes out that Pujols did in fact use steroids (or cheat if you prefer that terminology) I refuse to be surprised. Each time a star baseball player has been found to use PEDs the baseball world is shocked and turns its collective head to the next best player or "good guy" who clearly doesn't use. We then quickly put them on a pedestal, only to be shocked again when he's caught. When the world hated Barry Bonds, it was pretty convinced that A-Rod was one of the good guys.

While deep down I feel we are all possibly cynical of our revered athletes, we have trained ourselves to hide that, creating room for the shock and awe at each name that comes out. We all obviously want Barry Lamar Bonds, A-Rod, Ryan Braun and in this case, Pujols and countless others to be clean. We want it so bad that we lose sight of logic, the players' incentive to use steroids and maybe even the loosey-goosey era. 

I don't know anything about Albert Pujols' use or non use of steroids and I won't pretend that his shaved head or recent decline carries any significance. But, I've seen this game before, we all have, and unfortunately we should stop being surprised.