Revisiting the Morse Trade

During the offseason, Mike Morse was involved in a three-team trade with the Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners.

There was a player to be named later in the trade who we know as Ian Krol, but to recap the totality of the trade:

• Michael Morse went from Washington to Seattle. 
• A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen and Ian Krol went from Oakland to Washington. 
• John Jaso went from Seattle to Oakland. 

I had a few words to say about this trade when it initially went down:

I like this deal for the A's, trading pitching prospects on a team with plenty of young, pitching depth for a catcher who might lead the team in OBP has to be considered a smart move. I also like this trade for the Nationals as Morse didn't have a spot on the team once the Nationals signed Adam LaRoche.  But as far as the Mariners are concerned, I'm not a huge fan of the deal. [...]

The chances of this deal really backfiring on the Mariners in any truly meaningful way might be slim but still, color me skeptical on this deal for the M's, a win for the A's and a win for the N's. 

Let's see how all the parties are doing now:

Oakland: The A's are currently 2.5 games back of Texas for the division but still have a three game advantage for the second Wild Card spot. Jaso has stepped to the plate 249 times and so far has hit .271/.387/.372 for a 120 wRC+. Those are solid numbers for a catcher but Jaso's been on the DL since suffering a concussion in late July. Jaso's maintained his on-base skills but his ISO has slipped from .180 in 2012 to a meager .101 this year.

Washington: The Nationals have been a disappointment this year with 13 games in between them and the Braves although they are a more reasonable 7 games behind in the Wild Card. With Adam LaRoche at first and an outfield of Werth/Span/Harper, it's unlikely that Morse would have made a difference in their struggles. Meanwhile, Ian Krol (3.63 SIERA) could be a useful bullpen piece. Down on the farm, Blake Treinen has thrown 113.2 innings with a 3.2 ERA in AA and AJ Cole has looked quite dominant since being promoted to AA - 9.86 K/9, 1.88 BB/9 2.58 ERA in 38.1 innings.

Seattle: The Mariners are 59-72 and Mike Morse has a 91 wRC+ in 307 PAs. Morse hit 8 home runs in April but since then has done a whole lot of nothing.

I didn't like the trade for the Mariners the day it happened and Mike Morse has certainly done nothing to change that. Jaso fits in very well with the A's mix and match and depth strategy but, looking back on it, Washington is the big winner in this deal.

AJ Cole and Blake Treinen could never pitch an inning in the majors but Morse was an upcoming FA without a place to play and FWIW in 2013 Morse has -0.9 WAR for Seattle while Krol has -0.2 in Washington. Neither have been good but Krol has been less bad and this isn't even considering the potential upside of AJ Cole.

Cole's stock is/was down following a disastrous 2012 in Oakland's farm system where he was demoted from Stockton (A+) to Burlington (A). However, 2013 has been a different story. He might not return to top-100 prospect status but across two levels this year, Cole's thrown 135.2 innings with 144 strikeouts against just 31 walks. Three healthy arms for Mike Morse would represent a big win for Washington, but Cole and his 95 mph fastball might give them much, much more.

UPDATE: Michael Morse was traded from the Mariners to the Orioles in exchange for Xavier Avery. So, for a switch hitting catcher under team control with a 132 OPS+ in his last 610 plate appearances, the Mariners received Xavier Avery. No offense to Mr. Avery (.703 OPS in AA/AAA this year) but this trade is a certified loss for the Mariners.