Quick Thoughts: Weekend Wrap Up

If there is one thing we have learned during this offseason it's that baseball teams have a lot of money to spend. That idea certainly did not change this weekend. A quick recap:

• The best way to improve your team is to upgrade your biggest weakness. The 2013 Yankees had many weaknesses, the fact they were over .500 is somewhat impressive. But, by and large the catcher position was the glaring hole. As a team the Yankees catchers (Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine and a tad of J.R. Murphy) hit for a combined 61 wRC+, which ranked 26th in the league. Now, the Yankees have Brian McCann, signed to a five-year $85 million deal. It's a lot of money but with the current times, $17 million for McCann actually doesn't seem too too bad. The Yankees received 0.9 WAR from their catchers last year and McCann, who ranks as one of the best offensive and defensive catchers in the league projects by Steamer to be worth 4.8 WAR. Granted that's a rough estimation and McCann has missed a few games over the last few years, but even on the low end, McCann projects to be worth at least three more wins than their current crop of catchers. McCann might not be a good catcher or a catcher at all towards the end of this deal but if he does his thing for the first 2-3 years, it should be a solid signing for the Yankees.
• Like the Yankees, the Cardinals realized best way to improve is to fix your weakness. The Cardinals have fewer weaknesses than the Yankees and most teams but they certainly have a hole at shortstop that Pete Kozma just isn't filling. Lat year, the Cardinals' shortstops were worth -0.3 WAR. The Cardinals essentially did not have a major league caliber player at SS all year, now they have Jhonny Peralta, signed to a four-year $52 million deal. Earlier in his career Peralta graded out as a below average SS but somehow over the last few years he's been above average. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that but the Cardinals certainly value defense and I don't think they would completely punt it just for Peralta's offense. Speaking of his offense, although he's been inconsistent, Peralta still an above average hitter (career 102 wRC+) playing a premium defensive position. The Cards are paying some decent coin for Peralta's services but they were also able to upgrade their biggest weakness without having to trade one of their young aces. Peralta may not be worth $52 million over the course of his contract, but because of him the Cardinals are still able to throw Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez out there, and that is a lot of value.
• The Yankees and Robinson Cano aren't looking any closer to agreeing on a contract but there isn't much buzz about him being linked with any other team. The Dodgers spent a bunch of cash on middle infielders from Cuba and unless the Rangers decide to dive all-in following their Prince Fielder acquisition, I don't see any other players for Cano. His $300 million demand is a joke and the Yankees will likely end up signing him for a more reasonable, eight-year $200 million deal. The fact that $200 million might be considered reasonable, tells us a lot about the current free agent landscape.
• Josh Johnson to San Diego was the early front runner for best free agent signing of the offseason, pitching or otherwise but Dan Haren to LA might take the cake now.  A one-year $10 million deal for Dan Haren carries little risk and a lot of reward. Haren isn't a pillar of stability but he still threw 176.2 innings in 2012 and 169.2 innings last year. His 4.67 ERA last year is a little unsightly but a 3.67 xFIP might tell a different story. In 64.2 innings pitched from August on, Haren had a 3.34 ERA and a 58/12 K/BB. Haren can struggle with the long ball but he still has fantastic control (1.64 BB/9) and ant least an average ability to miss bats (8.01 K/9; 9.1% SwStr%). That combination for $10 million in this market, is a steal for the Dodgers. 

Peter Bourjos for David Freese

A trade went down today and although it's not as sexy as the Prince Fielder variety, (if one can think of Prince Fielder and sexy in the same sentence) it's not a meaningless trade either.

The Cardinals essentially swapped third basemen without a job, David Freese for Peter Bourjos from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels have a hole at third base so this certainly fills a need but any way you want to slice it, Peter Bourjos is the better player here. David Freese isn't as bad as his 2013 campaign (106 wRC+/1.3 WAR) but he's also likely not as good as "peak" in 2012. Freese doesn't carry a great glove and his productive years have been a result of fortunate balls in play as he doesn't have too much power with a career .427 SLG and .141 ISO. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are now able to slide Matt Carpenter to third base, use prospect Kolten Wong at second base, move Jon Jay to right field to replace Carlos Beltran and finally have themselves an actual center fielder playing the position. With one swap, the Cardinals solidified four positions and gave themselves some nice insurance in case super prospect Oscar Taveras isn't ready. Nice work.There will be worse fielders playing in center in 2014 than Jon Jay but anyone who watches the games could see he's not particularly great with the glove. Bourjos happens to be one of the best fielders in the game. I could illustrate that fact with a slew of advanced stats but just know that the Angels had Mike Trout playing left field because Peter Bourjos was on the team. 'Nuff said.

Considering David Freese was a surplus for the Cardinals coming off of a down year, he was a solid buy-low option for whichever team wanted to acquire him. However, buying low provides that you do just that, and the Angels did not do that here. Bourjos has yet to play an entire season (some coaching/some injury issues) but if and when he does, on the heels of his glove, he would certainly be a more valuable. But, he's no slouch with the bat as he's also a totally acceptable hitter as well. In 1,136 plate appearances Bourjos has a 96 wRC+. That's a league average hitter who happens to be one of, if not the best center fielders in the game. I said I didn't need any stats, but what the hell, since he entered the league in 2010, only four out fielders have been more valuable with the glove. The kid can play.

Fernando Salas is also going to Los Angeles with Randal Grichuk coming over to St. Louis. I don't know much about Grichuk, but he's a top-10 prospect in the Angels farm system. He won't turn 23 until August and just hit a decent .256/.306/.474 in AA this season. Who knows how Grichuk will end up but Fernando Salas has little to no value, Grichuk certainly has some. 

Early next season, David Freese will be 31 years old with two years of team control. Peter Bourjos will be 27 years old with three more years of team control. Bourjos is cheaper, better and the Cardinals will have control of him for a longer time. It's basically impossible to say this isn't a great trade for St. Louis.  The Cardinals don't have the budget that some teams do but the rich certainly got richer here. 

Quick Thoughts

There is a lot of movement going on this offseason and not every bit of rumor, trade or signing is worthy of its own post (necessarily), so consider this a greatest hits. Or at least a few sweet samples:

• Chris Young signed a one-year $7.25 million deal with the Mets today. With Marlon Byrd the Mets outfield was looking bleak and without him they were relying on Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr. and whatever Lucas Duda could pretend to be out there. Safe to say, they needed some OF help and Chris Young provides that. Young's stock has plummeted in recent years but he can play CF and at least still hit lefties well. The problem is against righties. Young had a 67 wRC+ against right handed pitchers in 2013 but a more respectable 88 wRC+ in 2012.$7.25 million is a lot for a part-time player but if Young can play adequate CF defense and up his production against righties, it's a low-risk move for the Mets that fills a need.
• Of course, even with Young the Mets need some more OF help and they've also been linked to Nelson Cruz. Signing another out fielder is the right idea but Nelson Cruz might be a land mine. Cruz used to be a more athletic, five-ish tool player who could run a bit and field his position. Nowadays, while he can still hit home runs he brings no value on the bases for in right field. Cruz will demand a multi-year deal and it wouldn't surprise me if he had one solid year on his next contract but my guess is it gets drowned out by the other years. If I'm a Mets fan, I hope this stays a rumor.
• The Royals signed Jason Vargas to a four-year $32 million deal, essentially replacing free agent Ervin Santana. The dollars being thrown around this offseason is a little ridiculous but it's basically the new normal. Teams have more money to spend than ever before and they're clearly spending it. However, four years at $8 million a year for essentially a league-average pitcher is a little wonky. It's true that it's essentially the same deal that Jeremy Guthrie signed (plus a year) but that implying that Guthrie's deal was a solid one isn't necessarily correct. The Royals want to get over the hump, it's important to have several guys throw at least league average innings to compete, but giving Vargas four-years isn't an optimal use of their resources.

The Trade

The rumors yesterday afternoon rang true by the evening time as the Rangers and Tigers essentially swapped all-stars with Ian Kinsler going to Detroit and Prince Fielder moving to Texas. 

The trade isn't exactly a simple swap as Detroit is also throwing $30 million to Texas (paid out in the final five years of the contract)  but as far as the players are concerned, Prince and Kinsler are the only pieces moving. We still have a lot of offseason left to see how everything else shakes out, but this is certainly too big of a trade to not analyze immediately after.

Of course, several people have already written several great words on the trade, including Dave Cameron here and here and Jonah Keri here, but the more the merrier right?

The Tigers entered the offseason with essentially three designated hitters, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. Prince Fielder and the $168 million owed to him until 2020 was largely and appropriately considered an immovable contract but moved he was for Ian Kinsler. With this trade, Miguel Cabrera and his achy groin can now move to a position more suitable to his size, Nick Castellanos can move back to the hot corner or the Tigers can resign Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez can comfortably play out his final year in Detroit at DH. 

Although the Tigers are sending $30 million to Texas in the deal, that doesn't start until 2016 and for the next two years, have $48 million to spend that was previously allocated to Prince. The Tigers were originally committed to $168 million to Prince, now with Ian Kinsler ($62 million) and the $30 million going to Texas they've secured $76 million to play around with. That's some significant coin. When you add in the fact that Kinsler's contract is somewhat front-loaded, that Victor Martinez is off the books next year, and that Tigers are paying the Rangers in 2016-2020, the Rangers have plenty of cash to spend. Whether that means they will resign Max Scherzer, brin gin a top tier free agent like Shin-Soo Choo or what, I don't really know. 

However, what I do know is that before this trade the Tigers didn't have many options and were resorting to possibly having to move Scherzer. Now, the Tigers filled their need at second base with Omar Infante's departure, they aren't looking to move their recent Cy Young Award winner and have some serious elbow room both in this offseason and in the future. Elbow room is important. 

Regardless what the Tigers do after this move, this has to be considered a big, big win for them. They had a hole at second base and money tied up in three players playing the same position handcuffing the team. With one trade the Tigers fixed all of those problems. Even if Prince was a more valuable player than Kinsler this would be a nice swap but that isn't even true. While Fielder certainly hits better than Kinsler he does it at first base, Kinsler makes his money at second base. Prince is an unquestionable iron horse essentially playing in every game since he's entered the league while Kinsler is prone to miss several games each year, but including those missed games Kinsler has accrued 12.8 WAR since 2011 while Prince has 11.9. There might be a selection bias there, including Kinsler's career year in 2011, but Steamer projects Kinsler to be worth 3.6 WAR in 2014 and Prince 3.7. Any way you want to slice it, these players have equal value, the only thing not equal is the salaries they're being paid.

Meanwhile, while I certainly think it's a fantastic trade for the Tigers, that doesn't mean it's a horrible one for the Rangers. The Rangers entered the offseason with a crowded infield, one of Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler had to go, or switch positions. The Rangers also lacked punch in the lineup losing Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli last year to free agency and while I doubt the Rangers wish they were paying Josh Hamilton $25 million for the next few years, Mitch Moreland isn't really making the Rangers forget their absence.

So with this trade the Rangers were able to fix their middle infield log jam, allowing their prized prospect to play and they received a big bopper at a position of need. That's not bad but they're also paying a pretty penny for it to happen. I have a lot of issues with Prince Fielder's body type and just paying first basemen a lot of money into their thirties in general, but a seven year/$138 million deal for Prince isn't necessarily breaking the bank. It's not considering what else they could have acquired for Kinsler, but the trade market for a second basemen in his 30s, even a great one, might not be as fruitful as I would have normally assumed.

Overall, as I said, I count this as a huge win for the Tigers and a wait-and-see for the Rangers. Jonah Keri has a good point bringing up the TV money the Rangers will have flowing in but with this trade the Rangers are closer to making their bed and getting ready to sleep in it. The Tigers now have the flexibility to buy a nicer bed for themselves or dress it with Egyptian cotton, even though I might prefer your cheaper, standard T-Shirt sheets.

I was shocked a few years ago when the Tigers signed Prince, now I'm a little shocked they were able to trade him and his contract. Either way, this is a fantastic start to the hot stove season and I can't wait to see what follows and how Prince Fielder's body is going to look in 2018. 

2013 MVP Awards

I won't speak too much about the MVP Awards, which will be announced tonight as my thinking has largely remained the same since I talked about them in early September.

American League MVP

National League MVP

Alas, it's impossible for me to say nothing about it either.The top of my ballots from September remain the same in November. I still think that Andrew McCutchen was the best player in the National League, which in my mind makes him the MVP. Even if the Pirates finished in last place, McCutchen, for better or worse, would remain my personal choice. Of course the Pirates didn't finish in last place as they made the postseason, so hopefully the BBWAA gives him credit for that. Whether or not it's misguided (and it would be in my opinion), McCutchen deserves the award.

Unfortunately, while McCutchen was a great hitter, he didn't lead the league in RBI like Mr. Paul Goldschmidt. However, although Goldy led the NL in RBI (129) and HR (36), his 156 wRC+ was only slightly better than McCutchen (155), as playing in Pittsburgh isn't the same as Arizona. Context matters. Moreover, considering they are essentially equal hitters with the bat, the fact that McCutchen plays a more demanding position, plays it well and can run the bases makes it a no brainer for me.

National League

1) Andrew McCutchen

2) Yadier Molina

3) Clayton Kershaw

In the American League, my thinking has changed much either since September. It actually hasn't changed much since last season when it was Trout vs. Cabrera Part I. In 2012, Trout was actually on par with Miggy with the stick but this year Miggy wasn't certainly better with a 192 wRC+ compared to Trout's 176. But of course, all the caveats that applied last year are still relevant today. Trout plays CF (mostly) and plays it very well, he steals bases (33/40) and is generally one of the best baserunners in the game, netting the third most runs in the AL on the base paths.

Meanwhile, although Miggy is unworldly with the bat he can't really field. He plays a premier position but he also lost the most runs of any fielder in the league this year. Chris Davis should net a lot of votes, maybe more than Trout, because he hit for power on a good team but unsurprising to anyone who reads the Bias, Trout is my pick. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn't an end-all-be-all statistic but it's telling that Trout's 10.4 number is significantly higher than Miggy's (7.6). And if you happen to prefer Baseball-Reference's WAR calculation, Trout (9.2) still bests Caberera (7.2) by a wide margin.

One last thing to note is some Josh Donaldson love. In September I mentioned him as a sort of footnote in the "best of the rest" but now, I'd probably rank him 4th. A jack of all trades and master of none, Donaldson provides + value everywhere on the diamond and is a large reason why Oakland was so successful.

American League

1) Mike Trout
2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Chris Davis
3a) Josh Donaldson

Murray Ch-ass

This isn't the first time I'm annoyed with Murray Chass and I guarantee it won't be the last, but his most recent blogpost article rubbed me the wrong way.

In the grand scheme of things, Murray Chass and I probably agree on more things than not but when it comes to talking baseball, specifically advanced stats and/or the Hall of Fame, there is much we disagree on. 

One of those things we disagree mightily on is Jack Morris and his Hall of Fame candidacy. I don't need to go into the details of why I don't think Morris should be in the Hall of Fame but I don't think his case is strong and the reasons for his inclusion aren't necessarily structurally sound. In a recent conversation with Murray Chass, Morris blames his 3.90 career ERA on the fact that nobody told him that it's better to have a lower ERA. Seriously:

And what might Morris have done if the general manager or his manager have said they wanted him to have a lower earned run average? 

"I probably would have led the league," he said.

The jokes are endless here so I won't bog you down with sarcastic remarks but it goes to show you what has come of the Jack Morris HOF debate. How can you explain his poor ERA? He would have led the league if someone told him to! 'Nuff said.

Anywho, I'm getting a bit off track here because beyond Morris' hilarious explanation regarding his ERA, what bothered me about Chass' piece was this:

Whether or not they are members of SABR, the anti-Morris mob needs help. Expending as much mental passion and physical effort as they have in trying to block Morris' road to the Hall of Fame indicates the need for them to get a life.

There is certainly a distinction between arguing to include someone and arguing to exclude someone, one is positive and one is negative. Sure. But, I find it a little hypocritical or at the very least, a little dick-ish, to tell everyone who is arguing against Morris for the HOF that they need to get a life, in an article in which you are arguing for Morris to be in the HOF.

I don't know how many emails Murray receives in general, let alone specific to Jack Morris but maybe if he wasn't such a Chass all the time and maybe if he allowed for a comment section, he wouldn't be bombarded.

If you feel Jack Morris is deserving of the Hall of Fame, that's your opinion and you're entitled to it, but please refrain from telling others that they need a life because their opinion differs from your own.

Grant Balfour, David Robertson and Replacing Mo

The Yankees' goals for this offseason aren't too complicated - resign Cano, resign Hiroki Kuroda, improve the rotation, find an adequate bat for right field and replace Mariano Rivera. The Yankees aren't necessarily tied to getting under $189 million in salary this season but it's certainly the desired goal. With the exception of trading for Vernon Wells, everything they have done over the past year or so has been with that in mind and even with the Wells trade, they structured the payment so that they would be paying a lower number in 2014.

All in all, while the Yankees are looking to spend money (how much is dependent on if they have to pay Alex Rodriguez in 2014) they are also trying to save a few bucks. If you ask me, one way to waste a few bucks is to pay a premium for a Proven Closer™ on the free agent market.  The Yankees undoubtedly have to replace Mariano Rivera, and I don't envy the soul who has to do that, but one way to accomplish that task is to replace him in house. Inside the Yankees' house one will find a David Robertson, who has easily been one of the best relievers in the game over the last few years, and really since Robertson starting throwing pitches in the majors. Yes, he has mostly done his work in the eighth inning but with rare exception, everyone who pitches the ninth, started by pitching the eighth. 

For his career, Robertson has a 2.76/2.76/2.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line in 329 innings. In 2013 Robertson had a 2.04 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched. Among relievers since 2011, Robertson has the fifth best ERA, the seventh best FIP and the third most WAR. When I say he's been one of the best and most valuable relievers, you can see I'm telling the truth. 

The Yankees certainly need to acquire some relievers this offseason as both Rivera and Joba are gone but replacing Mo's role on the team can easily be filled by David Robertson. However, the Yankees might not be leaning towards that decision with Susan Slusser reporting that the Yankees are interested in Grant Balfour. It should be noted that "interest" is an extremely large umbrella and how much, if any, the Yankees have in Balfour is questionable but it certainly seems like they are eyeing a closer to replace their closer.

In 2012 Rivera famously missed most of the 2012 season with a torn ACL. In his place the Yankees initially tried Roberston. On May 8th, Robertson recorded the save but let three runners reach base. On May 9th, Robertson blew the save and lost the game, allowing four runs without finishing the inning. On May 11th, Roberston recorded two outs in a non-save situation in the ninth inning and then found himself on the DL with a strained left oblique. When he returned to the Yankees in June, Rafael Soriano (Proven Closer™) was closing games and would hold that job for the remainder of the year.

I don't know if a few appearances in 2012 have any effect on Robertson having the job in 2014 but the Yankees are still looking for a closer to replace Rivera this offseason, even with Robertson in their back pocket. From the Daily News:

While David Robertson is clearly the top incumbent candidate to replace the retired Mariano Rivera, Yankees GM Brian Cashman isn’t just handing him the job this winter.

“We haven’t anointed anybody the closer, so I don’t know,” Cashman said. “I know Robertson wants it. But we’ll see how the winter shakes out and how the competition in spring training takes place.

“We’re going to look at everybody and anything and see where the winter takes us. The bottom line is, we have to get a collection of talent to bring to spring training. The cream rises to the top, and we have to find as much cream as possible.”

Anthony McCarron continues to state how Robertson is an option in house but he also goes on to mention Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour as potential replacements as well. I understand Cashman playing it safe here but Robertson is better than any reliever on the market. Joe Nathan had a startling 1.39 ERA but his .224 BABIP, 3.0% HR/FB ratio and declining velocity aren't that exciting in a 39 year old pitcher. For what it's worth, the Rangers didn't even give him a qualifying offer and they have worse in house options than David Robertson. Grant Balfour had a very solid 2013 season, earning his first All-Star Game appearance but his 3.42 xFIP screams more middle reliever than closer to me.

We know the Yankees need to find some relievers but if budget is a concern (and it sure seems that way) throwing a few million at Jesse Crain types seems like a more appropriate course of action than paying top dollar for someone who has saved games previously. Before Joe Nathan closed games for the Twins he was a set up man on the Giants. Before Grant Balfour closed games for the A's he set up games for the A's and Rays. Before Mariano Rivera closed games for the Yankees he set up John Wetteland. The Yankees (should) know this process more than anyone and they have one of the best pitchers in baseball to replace Mo, throwing the highest leverage innings.

I don't necessarily think that a couple of questionable performances in the ninth inning in May of  2012 is preventing Robertson from being named closer, but I'm also not entirely sure what the rub is. It's possible the Yankees want to entice a potential free agent the idea that they could be closing games in NY but that would also theoretically drive up their price and have a lesser pitcher at closer.

If the Yankees want to resign Cano and improve the rotation, giving Balfour money for the number under the 'S' column in his baseball card isn't optimal use of their resources. They should name Robertson the closer and bargain shop for relievers to fill out the rest of the bullpen. Koji Uehara didn't save games before signing with Boston and he had one of the best seasons a reliever or closer has ever had. I believe the Yankees know this, I sure hope they know this but let's see what happens. 

Scherzer to Washington?

One eye on Detroit, one eye
on Washington

Max Scherzer won 21 games with a 2.90 ERA this year and by all accounts is expected to win the AL Cy Young this season.  He's also about to get very expensive as he will be a free agent at the end of next season. It's tough to gauge exactly how much money Scherzer will demand, but Cole Hamels at a similar age and performance level resigned with the Phillies for a six-year $144 million deal. If the Tigers are to retain Scherzer's services, chances are he's going to cost ~ $150 million.

It's tough to trade an ace on a team that's trying to win a championship but it's also a lot of money to spend with Justin Verlander (owed $160 million), Anibal Sanchez ($72 million) and Prince Fielder ($168 million) already on the books. Miguel Cabrera is owed $44 million as well but the more pressing concern is resigning him. Mike Ilitch is willing to spend money and would like to see a World Series on his watch but I don't need to remind you that the Tigers aren't exactly the Dodgers of the Midwest.

With all of that said, Ken Rosenthal brings us the first juicy rumor of the season -- Max Scherzer to Washington:

Think about it:

• Scherzer and Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo have a history — Scherzer was Rizzo’s last first-round pick as Diamondbacks scouting director, going No. 11 in 2006.

• The Nationals are deep in young power arms and veteran late-inning relievers, both of which surely are on Tigers GM David Dombrowski's wish list.

• The price in prospects for Scherzer, a free agent at the end of next season, would be lower than it is for Price, who is under club control for two more years.

• And, finally, the Nats maintain a strong relationship with Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, and might stand a better chance of signing the pitcher long term than most clubs.

It doesn't take an advanced scout to realize that Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball so if Washington wants to acquire an ace, I'm not sure that Rizzo's relationship with Scherzer is going to matter. Either way, Rosenthal brings up some good points but the big if is will the Tigers trade Scherzer?

With or without Scherzer the Tigers have a formidable pitching staff and there is certainly sound logic in unloading Scherzer to free up some money to spend elsewhere. However, another option is simply letting Scherzer walk after the season, take the draft pick as compensation and let it ride with the three-headed Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez monster. The stars and scrubs approach can rear it's ugly head but it's unsettling to think of trading Scherzer's ~$13 million contract in order to spend on a few middling relievers and Omar Infante. If the Tigers were able to open their wallets a bit, they should be able to retain Omar Infante, keep Scherzer for 2014 and fill in the rest of the roster with one-year contracts that shouldn't be hurt them next offseason.

A Proposal:

1. Keep Omar Infante (3 years/ ~$30 million)
2. Trade Victor Martinez (eating some cash) for relief help.
3. Move Prince Fielder to DH and Miguel Cabrera to first.
4. Play Nick Castellanos at third.
5. Sign David Murphy for LF.

The flip side is that Scherzer should demand a solid bounty but with only one year remaining on his contract, he may not be as appealing to GMs as he is to speculative fans. We don't know for sure what kind of offers the Tigers could receive, and given that  he's one of the best starters in the league, they would be smart to at least dangle Scherzer out there. My guess is that they would be better off holding on, but Rosenthal admits no trade is close to imminent.

I'm no genius to suggest that the Tigers just spend more money to solve their problems but color me skeptical that the Tigers receive an offer on Scherzer that's worthwhile.

Good Link: Top 50 Free Agents

Every year, Tim Dierkes at the invaluable MLB Trade Rumors website, puts out his list of the Top 50 Free Agents. Lucky for us non-Red Sox fans out there, his list is out to alleviate the post World Series hangover, to move on with the offseason. 

Below are Tim's top 10 free agents and where he expects them to sign:

1. Robinson Cano - Yankees
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - Mariners
3. Shin-Soo Choo - Tigers
4. Brian McCann - Rangers
5. Masahiro Tanaka - Dodgers
6. Ervin Santana - Yankees
7. Matt Garza - Nationals
8. Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees
9. A.J. Burnett - Pirates
10. Mike Napoli - Red Sox

Guessing where free agents will go is a tough job, and guessing where they will go this early in the offseason is even harder. So, while it's a little fickle to disagree with Tim's predictions there are a few that I might question.

The Tigers are committed to winning now as their owner is both wealthy and old and would like to win a championship in his lifetime. However, they also have a lot of money already committed for 2014, and spending this offseason could be tight. With that said, Shin-Soo Choo hitting ahead of Miguel Cabrera is certainly compelling and maybe Tim is on to something there. 

C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova are the only guaranteed starting pitchers for the Yankees on the roster right now, so there is no doubt that they'll acquire some this offseason. I agree that the Yankees will bring back Kuroda, but I wonder if the Yankees will shell out the money for Ervin Santana considering they still might be trying to get under the $189 million threshold to avoid a harsh luxury tax penalty. Now, there is certainly no guarantee that the Yankees do that because well, they're still the Yankees but for what it's worth, they recently resigned Jeter to a contract that would count less against the tax even though it will pay him more money. The point of all this is to say that Masahiro Tanaka would also cost more overall dollars, but less against the luxury tax, as his posting fee doesn't count towards that number. I will never bet against the Dodgers acquiring their guy but if anyone could out bid them it's the Yankees.