Monday, November 25, 2013

Quick Thoughts: Weekend Wrap Up

If there is one thing we have learned during this offseason it's that baseball teams have a lot of money to spend. That idea certainly did not change this weekend. A quick recap:
  • The best way to improve your team is to upgrade your biggest weakness. The 2013 Yankees had many weaknesses, the fact they were over .500 is somewhat impressive. But, by and large the catcher position was the glaring hole. As a team the Yankees catchers (Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine and a tad of J.R. Murphy) hit for a combined 61 wRC+, which ranked 26th in the league. Now, the Yankees have Brian McCann, signed to a five-year $85 million deal. It's a lot of money but with the current times, $17 million for McCann actually doesn't seem too too bad. The Yankees received 0.9 WAR from their catchers last year and McCann, who ranks as one of the best offensive and defensive catchers in the league projects by Steamer to be worth 4.8 WAR. Granted that's a rough estimation and McCann has missed a few games over the last few years, but even on the low end, McCann projects to be worth at least three more wins than their current crop of catchers. McCann might not be a good catcher or a catcher at all towards the end of this deal but if he does his thing for the first 2-3 years, it should be a solid signing for the Yankees.
  • Like the Yankees, the Cardinals realized best way to improve is to fix your weakness. The Cardinals have fewer weaknesses than the Yankees and most teams but they certainly have a hole at shortstop that Pete Kozma just isn't filling. Lat year, the Cardinals' shortstops were worth -0.3 WAR. The Cardinals essentially did not have a major league caliber player at SS all year, now they have Jhonny Peralta, signed to a four-year $52 million deal. Earlier in his career Peralta graded out as a below average SS but somehow over the last few years he's been above average. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that but the Cardinals certainly value defense and I don't think they would completely punt it just for Peralta's offense. Speaking of his offense, although he's been inconsistent, Peralta still an above average hitter (career 102 wRC+) playing a premium defensive position. The Cards are paying some decent coin for Peralta's services but they were also able to upgrade their biggest weakness without having to trade one of their young aces. Peralta may not be worth $52 million over the course of his contract, but because of him the Cardinals are still able to throw Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez out there, and that is a lot of value.
  • The Yankees and Robinson Cano aren't looking any closer to agreeing on a contract but there isn't much buzz about him being linked with any other team. The Dodgers spent a bunch of cash on middle infielders from Cuba and unless the Rangers decide to dive all-in following their Prince Fielder acquisition, I don't see any other players for Cano. His $300 million demand is a joke and the Yankees will likely end up signing him for a more reasonable, eight-year $200 million deal. The fact that $200 million might be considered reasonable, tells us a lot about the current free agent landscape.
  • Josh Johnson to San Diego was the early front runner for best free agent signing of the offseason, pitching or otherwise but Dan Haren to LA might take the cake now.  A one-year $10 million deal for Dan Haren carries little risk and a lot of reward. Haren isn't a pillar of stability but he still threw 176.2 innings in 2012 and 169.2 innings last year. His 4.67 ERA last year is a little unsightly but a 3.67 xFIP might tell a different story. In 64.2 innings pitched from August on, Haren had a 3.34 ERA and a 58/12 K/BB. Haren can struggle with the long ball but he still has fantastic control (1.64 BB/9) and ant least an average ability to miss bats (8.01 K/9; 9.1% SwStr%). That combination for $10 million in this market, is a steal for the Dodgers. 

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