Matt Williams, Bad Bullpen Manager

Matt Williams, like many other managers, doesn't always use his bullpen efficiently, especially in close games in the playoffs with his season on the line. But, as Dave Cameron delightfully laid out in Just A Bit Outside, he was pretty terrible last night. 

It's a story we have all seen too many times before. I won't lay out all the details because Cameron does that better than I can but the general gist is the that back of the Nationals bullpen lost the game, while their best relievers watched. 

However, I do want to point out Cameron's specific take down of this logic in baseball and how it would never play in other sports:

There is no parallel to this in other sports. NFL teams that trail by a touchdown don't put in their backup linebackers until their offense takes the lead again. NBA teams don't use their worst bench players in the first half, saving their good reserves for the end of the game, as long as they're winning when the fourth quarter rolls around. Baseball is the only sport where it's perfectly acceptable to lose a game because the worst players on your roster didn't create a lead for your best players to protect. Not using your best relievers in a tie game, or even down a single run -- while employing them to "save" a game where you only need to get three outs before you give up three runs -- just doesn't make sense.

What's funny is that oftentimes you will hear arguments for keeping in an ace starting pitcher because you want to go down with your best. Now, I would disagree with that statement as it's proven that even the best pitchers facing a lineup for the fourth time are less successful than regular old middle relievers, but the general idea makes some sense, even if it's factually wrong. In this same NLDS series, Matt Williams took out Jordan Zimmermann who was throwing a fantastic game for Drew Storen who ended up blowing the lead. Drew Storen for his one inning is a better pitcher than Zimmerman in the ninth, but I can at least appreciate the idea of someone sticking with their guy. Grady Little clearly should have taken out Pedro, but you can somewhat understand him wanting to sink or swim with his guy, unfortunately/unsurprisingly he sank.

By that same logic, once a starting pitcher is out, you would think managers would generally want to go down with their best of the pen. Right? But no, they go down swinging with the soft under belly of their relief, hoping and wishing for a three run lead to secure.

Old habits die hard. Kill the save.

A Quick NL Wild Card Game Preview

If we learned anything from last night it's that in a one game playoff, no team should leave in their starting pitcher for too long.

With the best relief in the league, the Royals allowed James Shields to start the sixth inning and he inevitably struggled. 

With a four run lead ethe A's allowed Jon Lester to start the eighth inning and he inevitably struggled.

Madison Bumgarner is a great pitcher, but if it's the sixth inning or later, the Giants are better off going with one of their relievers than forcing Bumgarner to face someone for a fourth time.

Edinson Volquez has a great ERA, isn't quite the same pitcher as Bumgarner, but he too shouldn't be allowed to pitch many innings tonight. If I was the Pirates, I would ask for Volquez to get through the Giants lineup twice, and not get greedy for anything more.

The Giants have the pitching edge with Madison Bumgarner, but if Bruce Bochy overuses him, that advantage could become a glaring weakness as we saw with Jon Lester and his 111 pitches. 

Assuming the Pirates don't get too greedy with Volquez and that the Giants use Bumgarner reasonably, this game could come down to the lineups, of which the Pirates have a sizable advantage. While the Giants 101 wRC+ as a team ranks third in the AL it is behind the Pirates 108 wRC+ which ranked second behind the Dodgers (110). However, against lefties the Pirates only had a 97 wRC+ as a team compared to a 99 wRC+ for the Giants against righties. 

That might be too broad analysis as the Pirates are unlikely to start too many left handed hitters tonight. Travis Snider might be the only one. Madison Bumgarner is still a fantastic pitcher, one of the best in the league, but he won't be feasting on Ike Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Gregory Polanco and the other Pirates that can't hit a lick against south paws. The Giants meanwhile could throw a slew of left handed hitters to battle Edinson Volquez, but Gregor Blanco and Travis Ishikawa don't really inspire fear. 

Checking the marquee this seems like an easy victory for the Giants, but it's not as simple as Bumgarner for Volquez. The Pirates have a smart front office with the manager that listens. I'm thinking they go to the pen early, only asking Volquez to throw 3-4 innings which he can do and I think that their lineup gives them a slight edge. 

Prediction: Pirates, 5-4 (because last night's prediction was so close...)