A Quick NL Wild Card Game Preview

If we learned anything from last night it's that in a one game playoff, no team should leave in their starting pitcher for too long.

With the best relief in the league, the Royals allowed James Shields to start the sixth inning and he inevitably struggled. 

With a four run lead ethe A's allowed Jon Lester to start the eighth inning and he inevitably struggled.

Madison Bumgarner is a great pitcher, but if it's the sixth inning or later, the Giants are better off going with one of their relievers than forcing Bumgarner to face someone for a fourth time.

Edinson Volquez has a great ERA, isn't quite the same pitcher as Bumgarner, but he too shouldn't be allowed to pitch many innings tonight. If I was the Pirates, I would ask for Volquez to get through the Giants lineup twice, and not get greedy for anything more.

The Giants have the pitching edge with Madison Bumgarner, but if Bruce Bochy overuses him, that advantage could become a glaring weakness as we saw with Jon Lester and his 111 pitches. 

Assuming the Pirates don't get too greedy with Volquez and that the Giants use Bumgarner reasonably, this game could come down to the lineups, of which the Pirates have a sizable advantage. While the Giants 101 wRC+ as a team ranks third in the AL it is behind the Pirates 108 wRC+ which ranked second behind the Dodgers (110). However, against lefties the Pirates only had a 97 wRC+ as a team compared to a 99 wRC+ for the Giants against righties. 

That might be too broad analysis as the Pirates are unlikely to start too many left handed hitters tonight. Travis Snider might be the only one. Madison Bumgarner is still a fantastic pitcher, one of the best in the league, but he won't be feasting on Ike Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Gregory Polanco and the other Pirates that can't hit a lick against south paws. The Giants meanwhile could throw a slew of left handed hitters to battle Edinson Volquez, but Gregor Blanco and Travis Ishikawa don't really inspire fear. 

Checking the marquee this seems like an easy victory for the Giants, but it's not as simple as Bumgarner for Volquez. The Pirates have a smart front office with the manager that listens. I'm thinking they go to the pen early, only asking Volquez to throw 3-4 innings which he can do and I think that their lineup gives them a slight edge. 

Prediction: Pirates, 5-4 (because last night's prediction was so close...)