Daily Thoughts

Unrelated to anything baseball related but did anyone watch the Bieber Roast last night? It was actually quite good. I'm sure CC will re-air it up the wazoo, I'd recommend checking it out.

• Anthony Rendon's knee still ain't right and he's been meeting with Dr. James Andrews. I'm always skeptical when an injury lingers and isn't fully diagnosed, that seems to portend even more lingering and missed time. At this point there is no chance he makes the Opening Day lineup, and it's anyone's guess (or just Mr. Andrews') when he'll be back. If you need a replacement middle infielder, Everth Cabrera will be filling in for J.J. Hardy at the start of the season, and while he doesn't provide what Rendon does, he could steal plenty of bags in April and be a nice bench player once Rendon returns.

• Freddy Garcia signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers. He was last seen pitching for the Braves in 2013. I highly doubt Garcia has many, if any, MLB moments left but you have to appreciate the grind. Freddy's come back from the dead seemingly three times already so here's to one more. 

• Spring Stats don't mean anything, yadda yadda yadda but Holy Taijuan Walker! In 25 innings this spring Walker has allowed one run (off of a homer) and has 24 strikeouts against only four walks. He has the pedigree, the scouts are raving about him and he's having results thus far, Felix might finally have a partner atop of the rotation in Seattle now. In related news, Walker's battery mate Mike Zunino is also having a nice spring and could tap into the potential that made him the third overall pick and a top prospect this year.

• Kris Bryant and Addison Russell were sent to AAA yesterday which surprised nobody. However, joining them was Javier Baez who struggled in his audition last year and again this spring. There is a lot of pop in that bat and I have a feeling we will see him soon in Chicago, but the path to everyday time in the MLB isn't always so easy and Baez will have to fix the hole in his swing before he's popping homers and stealing bases in the majors. Meanwhile, Bryant should be up in April/May with Russell joining him likely as a September call-up if not earlier in the summer. 

• The MLB is looking to add a Spanish translator to each team so that players can fully "express themselves" to the media. This is a a fantastic idea and I hope they follow through with it. As fun as it could be to hear Soriano say "see ball, hit ball" it's obviously better and more interesting to hear an honest and detailed answer, to say nothing of helping out the young ball players who struggle to learn a second language with 10 recording devices in their face.

Daily Thoughts - Friday's Fantasy

There is already someone using the clever Dear Mr. Fantasy to talk about fantasy baseball, but that doesn't mean we can't listen to some good tunes over here too!

• Danny Salazar has some fantastic potential but he's also incredibly consistent in his inconsistencies. After allowing seven runs in 3.1 innings yesterday, he "might have cost himself a spot in the rotation." This is certainly bad news for Salazar owners who have already had their drafts but in the end it's still just one spring training start. However, I would still knock Salazar a few spots down on your draft board. I don't think he'll actually leave the rotation because of this but he might be heading down the road of Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez, pitchers who strike guys out without walking many but always seem to have ERAs higher than their peripherals. 

• With Melvin Upton out for the first few weeks, Eric Young Jr. "appears to have the edge" as his replacement. If we're going to be honest here, EY Jr. has never actually been good but when he plays, he steals. His every day playing time should be fleeting but he should pick up 5-10 steals in April and if Upton misses more time, that number will grow. 

• Kevin Gausman was a popular pick of mine and others for a potential break out this year on the Orioles. So it's a little disheartening to hear the Orioles want to prepare him as a starter and reliever.  In only 20 starts last year Gausman was worth a solid 2.1 WAR and while his 4.11 SIERA isn't so pretty, we're talking about a 24 year old pitcher that throws 95 mph and has exhibited solid control across all levels before last year. His stuff would play well in the bullpen of course, but the Orioles should really throw him in the rotation for the season to see what he can do. At worst he's around a league average pitcher, at best he taps into his potential as a former top prospect. I don't think it would surprise anyone to see Gausman break out except maybe his manager, Buck Showalter. Keep Gausman as a sleeper starter pick for your drafts, but the potential for frustrating managerial decisions has increased in his case.

• Popular sleeper pick Yasmany Tomas is now just...sleeping. Manager Chip Hale said Tomas could start the season in the minors, which would certainly hurt his value.  Tomas is starting to scare me a little, the Dbacks have a plethora of outfielders and if Tomas can't handle third I'm not sure how he will play exactly. Of course they will give him a shot in the outfield, whether it's in April, May or June, but with their glutton of MLB-caliber outfielders on the roster, will Tomas have a chance to play through a slump? With that said, he's such an unknown he can go gangbusters from day one and have a productive year. Still, I wouldn't draft Tomas in the first half of the draft, in the second half when you should be taking more risks, it's one worth taking.

UPDATE: Shows what I know, Salazar was optioned to AAA. At this point I wouldn't draft Salazar but keep tabs on him if/when he makes his way back to Cleveland. 

Daily Thoughts

To any college readers out there, here's to an eventful Thirsty Thursday with $0.50 beer or $1.00 well drinks at the grinding dance bar or the one that has all the cover bands, whichever is your preferred choice.

• A couple quick closer notes: David Robertson is experiencing some elbow soreness. The White Sox don't think it's serious but that's not a good sign. Joe Nathan had a rough day today giving up a homer but apparently had a thumbnail issue. Either way, given his 2014, Joakim Soria has to be targeted as a handcuff. 

• There is a lot of chatter going on these days about specializing in one sport hurting young athletes. The more basketball you play, the better you will likely get, but it's a lot of stress on the same muscles for four seasons. Similarly, the new talk in baseball is about young players, specifically pitchers, throwing for too many seasons consistently without taking time off to casually enjoy some soccer or what have you. With that said, it's interesting to see Mookie Betts crediting basketball for his ability to make adjustments. A lot of it has to do with Mookie's size in basketball and acting accordingly but we might have to rethink how we train our young athletes. Steve Nash and Kobe credit soccer to their basketball game and Mookie Betts is crediting basketball for his baseball game. A more well rounded education regarding sports and athletics might be more valuable in addition to helping with injuries. 

• Andrew McCutchen cut his hair. If McCutchen played in New York he'd probably be on the cover of GQ (with or without his awesome dreadlocks) but in Pittsburgh that hasn't quite happened. Let's hope that changes, he's an awesome player and seemingly an even better human. 

• Sometimes Bill James can sound a bit "get off my lawn"-ish but he has a unique mind and reading his take on a few questions is always worth a read. 

• Spring stats generally don't mean anything in terms of predicting on field performance that season but they could help predict playing time. Joc Pederson is ripping this spring, he may or may not have a productive year in LA but he will start in CF due to his spring. Mookie Betts is crushing, he may or may not play everyday for the entire season but with a crowded OF the Red Sox could have pointed to spring struggles and tweaked the roster. Instead, he will likely be leading off. Dan O'Dowd lists his "five toughest roster dilemmas," many of which could be decided based off of spring performance. 

Jerome Williams: 2003 Sleeper

Zach Links over at the invaluable MLB Trade Rumors has a nice piece on Jerome Williams. When Alex Rodriguez going 0-2 against a pitching machine or the Dodgers spending their billions grabs all the headlines, it's nice to see one of the other guys finding his way. 

Williams has bounced around a lot in his career. A former top prospect on the Giants, he had some success there but it was a bit fleeting as he struggled on the Cubs and Nationals before finding somewhat of a temporary home playing for the Angels. Last year, Williams signed a one year deal with the Astros but was released in the summer, picked up by the Rangers and then picked off waivers by the Phillies. Fortunately for Williams, he ended the year well in Philly and seems to be in a happy place, resigning with them this offseason:

“This was a no-brainer for me,” Williams explained. “Playing with them for the couple months I was with them, it was a no-brainer. The atmosphere, the guys in the clubhouse, the city, it was a no-brainer to come back.”

We can joke about the current state of the Phillies being a nice home for anyone but all jokes aside, good for Williams. I hope he's able to build off his end of 2014 and have a successful year this season.

I'm in a deep NL-only fantasy baseball league, so he might be on my radar but Williams was really on my radar heading into the 2003 season. I've played fantasy baseball for a while but that year I started taking it seriously. And by serious I simply mean naively thinking I knew anything and digging for sleepers. Now, please be reminded that I was in high school in a decidedly non-competitive fantasy league. It's that kind of league where a top pitching prospect like Williams (50th best prospect according to Baseball America) who was ready for the major leagues needed any digging to find.

Needless to say, I drafted Jerome Williams and I was happily rewarded. In 21 starts the 21 year old Williams went 7-5 in 131 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 88 strikeouts. Beyond his success to my fantasy team, the important thing was that I dug for a sleeper, found Williams and was rewarded with his success, our success. Williams made me think I was brilliant. I'm sure I bragged about it to my leaguemates, which seems a little silly because 131 innings with a solid ERA and few strikeouts isn't really anything to brag about. But they didn't dig for anyone, they got lucky, I on the other hand just knew.

What I probably didn't brag about was Williams' teammate Kirk Rueter. In 2002 Kirk Rueter threw 203 innings with a 3.23 ERA. I apparently didn't care about Rueter's 76 strikeouts (3.36 K/9!!!) because that ERA is undervalued. And of course, if Rueter had a 3.23 ERA in 2002, 2003 was going to be more of the same. If only I knew about FIP back then I would have seen 4.43 and passed. Instead, I had him on my team and was rewarded with a 4.53 ERA, strangely close to his FIP the previous year. It's funny how that works out.

I'm not sure if there's a point to this story. Well, the actual point is that Jerome Williams, a career journey man, is in a good spot and we hope he succeeds. That's a nice story. The selfish point and reason for my rambling is that one could say that Williams played a crucial role in my fantasy baseball career. While we often can remember the "bad beats" more than our wins, we also have a tendency to pretend that we're all geniuses. It's easy for me to remember my pick of Jerome Williams. Kirk Rueter lives in a different, more embarrassing home in my brain that I don't necessary access on the reg.

Another takeaway could be that I didn't draft Jesse Foppert who was ranked #3 according to BA and had a 5+ ERA. Or Kurt Ainsworth who was another top prospect and had similar success as Foppert.

Another takeaway could be that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, known to us all as TNSTAAPP.

Another takeaway could be that the 2002 Giants went to the World Series and the following year their rotation included an awesome Jason Schmidt and 3 prospects who were all in Baseball America's top 100 in the rotation. In a different universe Jesse Foppert, Ainsworth and Williams would bring Bonds that elusive World Series. baseball is a strange game

Another takeaway could be that you shouldn't draft pitchers with stirkeout rates of 9%. This eluded me at some point in my life. Thankfully Jerome Williams and I are in a better place. I can't speak for Jesse Foppert. 

Daily Thoughts

I have been on two camels in my life. Unfortunately I can't find a photo of this. It's only important because every Wednesday someone at work posts a picture of a camel by the water fountain for hump day. If I had a picture of myself on a camel, I would certainly post it by the water fountain. In related news, riding a camel is awful and you feel violated after. Maybe it's better than a donkey ride, but not by much. Happy hump day!

•  If you needed or wanted another reason to hate the Yankees, I have something for you! Brian Cashman is a huge Kentucky fan. He's not a Kentucky fan in the way LeBron likes the Yankees as he was born in Lexington, KY but I imagine there is a lot of overlap on people who hate the Yankees and Kentucky (specifically their basketball program, not the state). 

• Other Yankees notes: Girardi is liking ARod as their DH. Tanaka is having a nice spring and will be their Opening Day starter. Sometimes the Yankees do have fun, here they are recreating a scene from the Sandlot.

• While baseball lends itself to analytics and has largely led the way in the sports world, there is still a lot much to learn. One aspect is pitching where we struggle to fully separate pitching from defense and just good old luck. Beyond that there is the poker game that is pitching. Ben Lindbergh's piece on Grantland talking about the poker game and pitch sequencing of pitching is a must read. 

• Javier Baez has a lot of power and with that, a large hole in his swing. The league average strikeout rate is around 20%. Baez struck out 30% of the time, in AAA last year and in the majors that jumped to 41.5%. That's a lot. I don't expect Baez to whiff at that rate but if he doesn't cut it down he won't stay in the majors. But in the majors he will start as Baez will still make the roster. Baez' power/steal combo in the minors was tantalizing  but his cup of coffee last year exposed a big weakness. It will be interesting to see if/how Baez can adjust. I think it will happen but whether it's this season and whether he turns into Jose Hernandez or an all-star will frustrate Cubs fans along the way.

• The Dodgers did Dodgers things yesterday, signing Cuban Hector Olivera for $62.5 million. He will likely play in the majors this year (if his elbow holds up) but the real play here is for Olivera to play second or third next year. These are the luxuries you can afford when you're the Dodgers. $60+ million for an asset that might be of use next year. 

The Best Cruz?

Who's better, who's best?

Ted Cruz: Senator from Texas. First official 2016 Republican nominee for President. Born in Canada. His father is from Cuba. Known for involvement with the Tea Party and is too extreme for even the Republican party.

"Imagine" me as president

Nelson Cruz: Outfielder on the Mariners. Got caught for PEDs at the end of 2013, signed a one-year pillow contract with the Orioles and slugged 40 homers earning him a $57 million deal with the Mariners. Known for bad defense (especially in the World Series), homers, PEDs and the nonchalance-ness that front offices show for getting caught.

I got it!

Penelope Cruz: Spanish actress. Known for her assets, involvement with Tom Cruise and now Javier Bardem and a slew of good but not great movies. Sahara was fun though. 

I upgraded to Bardem from Cruise. #winning

Victor Cruz: Wide Receiver on the Giants who unfortunately tore his patellar tendon last year. Known for catching Eli Manning bombs and salsa dancing immediately after. 

Can Odell do this?

So, I'll let you decide - who's the best Cruz? Did I forget any others? And as a follow up, who would make the best President?

Daily Thoughts

It's tough to get out of bed on a Monday but there is at least a newness at work, seeing people you haven't seen in a few days. By Tuesday however, you are tired of the work faces and Friday still seems so far away. I'm not saying Garfield is totally wrong, but Tuesdays are maybe worse. On the other hand, I love lasagna. Except vegetable lasagna, what is up with that?

• After a breakout 2014 campaign, the Twins have locked up Dozier to a four-year $20 million deal. Dozier does a little bit of everything and was worth an impressive 4.8 fWAR last year. All the projection systems seem to have him around 2.7 WAR and Dozier should have no problem being worth this mini-extension, that avoids arbitration. 

• We previously discussed the Indians working with Kluber to work on an extension but at the moment it is "not close." I'm of the opinion that the Indians would be better off just going year to year in arbitration and avoiding an extension with Kluber which also avoids the long term risk. 

• Dellin Betances was one of the best relievers in baseball last year and it was generally assumed that he was going to be closing this season once Robertson left. But then the Yankees went out and got Andrew Miller. So, who's closing? The recent chatter from Girardi suggests they may go in a non-traditional route. I would love the Yankees to be non-traditional, as that's an unquestionable better use of Betances. Why limit him to one inning closing games, when he can throw 100 high leverage innings. Either way, while Girardi is paying lip service to this now, I'll believe it when I see it. My bet is on one (likely Betances) filling a more traditional role by the end of the season, similar to how he started 2014 pitching wherever needed before ending as the "eighth inning guys."

• Chris Smith has a good read about Matt Harvey, his stardom and the Mets. 

• Not baseball related, but this story on the recently retired Al Harrington sums up his and D'Antoni's career with the Knicks. Unfortunately, the Knicks are still the Knicks and D'Antoni will probably be coaching some new fun team next year. 

Daily Thoughts

I love March Madness. Thursday to Sunday was a fantastic stretch where my eyes barely strayed from the TV and my ass barely strayed from the couch. However, I was wondering something, what's worse - hearing about someone's fantasy football team or their busted bracket? 

"Yo dude, you won't believe what happened to my my squad (The Brady Bunch) . I was up 37.45 points and he only had Dez Bryant left. Of course he has the game of his life to beat me on Monday night! Friggin' ref should have called offensive pass interference on that last grab too which woulda only netted him 36 points and given me the win. I should totally be like 6-0 right now, bro." 

vs.

"Ugh, my bracket is so busted. If the ref calls that goal tend correctly, SMU beats UCLA and I'm still in it. Yeah, I had SMU in the final four and if that play didn't happen you can't convince me they don't go in with the momentum and end up beating Gonzaga and Duke because Coach K is a rat and they always lose early nowadays." 

Both are suboptimal but I think we all know football and fantasy football chats are still the worst. It''s enough having to go back to work on Monday, hearing your fantasy matchup isn't helping the situation.

• David Wright had a patented opposite field home run off of C.C. Sabathia this weekend. We haven't seen Wright do that much of late but if he can get back his oppo power mojo, he will yield a nice return on investment in draft day.

• After talking about Kris Bryant on Friday he went on and hit two more homers this weekend, bringing his total to a league leading eight. I mentioned that to deal with player's service time issues, there should be a more appropriate way to file grievances against the team. Given the current rules, Bryant should not file a grievance but that's because an arbitrator isn't really in a position to decide. However, a select committee of people in the know with high baseball acumen (scouts, ex-players, ex-GMs, etc.) could  reach a fair verdict. Just the threat of a different system would likely give teams enough incentive to play their best young players which is really the issue here. There is no great fix here but we're constantly being robbed of seeing more of the young elite and those players are being robbed of future paychecks. 

• The Dodgers have shut down Hyun-Jin Ryu for the time being. Ryu is dealing with discomfort in his shoulder. The Dodgers have acquired a lot of SP depth this offseason, so they could deal with missing Ryu for a little while, but Ryu is also one of the more underrated pitchers there is. In only 152 IP Ryu was worth 3.8 fWAR (20th among all starters) and his 2.62 FIP was the 7th best among all starters with 150 innings pitched. Ryu may not have the look or media craze of an ace but when healthy, he's one of the better pitchers in the league. With Ryu's shoulder acting up in March though, I sadly would advise passing on him in drafts. I'd rather find out Ryu gets a clean bill of health with him on another team then find out he's going to miss the first three months while on my team. 

• Other injury notes: Andrew McCutchen (lower body soreness) should be in the Opening Day lineup according to his manager and will be back in the spring training lineup this week. Anthony Rendon (knee) is still dealing with soreness and I would expect a DL trip to start the season. Koji Uehara (hamstring) is expected to be ready for Opening Day but Tazawa is a nice speculative add in all leagues/drafts as Koji is fairly brittle. Alex Cobb says that he is "pain free" which is fantastic news for the Rays.  

• A couple of roster notes: Asdrubal Cabrera is the Rays starting SS. Brett Cecil will be closing for Toronto and behind him could be Devon Travis at second base. 

• I posted my 10 Bold Predictions on RotoGraphs with an emphasis on bold. Take a gander at my predictions and let me have it in the comment section. You won't be alone. 

The Kris Bryant Dilemma

Kris Bryant is one of the top prospects in baseball. We all know this but in case you wanted a refresher, Baseball America says he's the best, MLB.com says he's just the 2nd best. Baseball Prospectus hates Bryant, he's only the fifth best according to them. But it's okay because FanGraphs says he's the best. I think you get the point.

Last year Kris Bryant hit .325/.438/.661 across AA and AAA with 43 home runs, 110 RBI, 118 runs and 15 stolen bases. When the #2 pick puts up that kind of performance in his first full year in the minors, that's how you get to be such an esteemed prospect. 

There is a strong case Bryant deserved a call up last year. There is a stronger case Bryant deserves to start the year in the majors this year. Maybe the Cubs just want to see how Bryant performs in the spring. Bryant has delivered, as he's 10/23 with six home runs. He even hit a homer last night but it doesn't count as it was a "B" game. But, as we all know Bryant will start in the minors to delay his arbitration clock, giving the Cubs more years of a cheaper Bryant. 

A lot has been said about this recently. Mike Petrtillo had a great article about it earlier this week and Keith Law dove into the topic today.  The logic according to Petrillo for withholding Bryant is simple and sound as he lays out here:

"If Bryant is with the Cubs from day one, he’ll vest 2015 as a full season of service time and be eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. If they hold him down in Triple-A so that he misses the first nine Cubs games of the season (which take place over 12 days, due to three scheduled days off), they’ll enjoy Bryant’s services through the 2021 season as well — his age-29 season. It’s a simple decision for the Cubs. Two weeks of Bryant’s age-23 season just won’t be as valuable as six months of his age-29 season. Keeping him down may not be popular, but it’s unquestionably correct."

Petrillo offers one alternative, but it really only helps top top prospects like Bryant, maybe not helping the situation entirely. Law offers his own option, making the last year before free agency a defacto free agency, where all teams could make a one-year offer on the player with the player's team having a right of refusal.

Both alternatives would help get Bryant to the majors on Opening Day this year, but neither necessarily completely fixes the problem. To be honest, I'm not sure I have an answer that fixes the problem, but here is one idea:  Allow players to file complaints, that would be taken seriously, about a team withholding a player to delay free agency. Teams can hide behind shade about player development, but some situations are clear if we stop putting lipstick on the ole pig. If the Cubs held down Bryant to start the season, he should be able to file and possibly win a complaint that would grant him one full year of service time. In theory Bryant could do this now but in reality it would never work. However, if that would be a real threat, the Cubs would want to save face and promote Bryant rather than deal with the fallback and still lose out on his service time. Outside of that, or some of the ideas that were mentioned the only solution will be what the players decide to do or change, or negotiate about with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The funniest part about all of this however is listening to the GMs constantly talk about the issue. Scott Boras is just defending his client when he lambastes the Cubs' handling of Bryant but it's also interesting to hear Theo Epstein's response:

"Kris Bryant's development path has absolutely nothing to do with ownership, period. As with all our baseball decisions, I will determine where Kris begins the 2015 season after consulting with members of our baseball operations staff. Comments from agents, media members and anybody outside our organization will be ignored.”

Now, that's  a pretty solid response by Epstein to tell Boras to get the hell out of here but it's tough to believe him. Bryant has crushed at every minor league stop and doesn't need to hit 50 homers in a minor league season to be ready to hit major league pitching. Clearly he's being held down for financial reasons, which is highly tied to ownership, contradicting Theo's thoughts.

In the end, this is an unfortunate dilemma, not just for Bryant, Boras and the Cubs but for the fans who miss out on seeing a potential all-star caliber youngin' because of rules of which the team can take advantage. You can't blame the Cubs, it's a business. The saving grace is laughing at Theo and his colleagues when they mention the development of Bryant or whoever the next guy in this situation is, which suddenly goes away after an arbitrary date in April. On March 20th, Bryant isn't ready but in mid-April everything changes.

Daily Thoughts

Happy Brackets! This is the first year in which I am not participating in a bracket pool since around the time I stopped getting allowance most likely.

• Jacoby Ellsbury is supposed to be one of the exciting, non-old Yankee players this year and he just had a MRI showing an oblique injury. A few years ago everyone was pulling their hammy, now people are hurting their obliques. Who knows. Ellsbury might not see any action until the season starts, but if he's healthy by then he should be ready to go. In terms of pre-season injuries affecting 2015 value, I'd put this one lower on the list and would draft Ellsbury as is. Ellsbury is often thought of as a big injury risk, and some of that is deserved but he played 149 games last season and 134 the season before. He can't be relied on for 162 but 120 Ellsbury + 42 from a pickup is still a great fantasy asset.

• I'm keeping David Wright in a keeper league and I'm crossing my fingers that his shoulder is improved from last year. Wright elected to rest/rehab instead of surgery on his shoulder which in my total non-doctor opinion makes me a bit nervous but the early reports are encouraging. Here's to hoping that Wright eliminates head first slides and diving plays to ensure a healthy 2015 season. As a ballplayer I'm sure his instincts will tell him otherwise when he's rounding second towards third or sees a ball in the hole between short and third, but the Mets need 150 healthy games out of Mr. Wright, not a few gritty plays in May. With that all said, I'm expecting a resurgent year here. Including his horrendous 2014, over the last three years Wright has averaged .294/16/71/69/13 in 134 games which isn't spectacular but it's far better than Pablo Sandoval and co. 

• Masahiro Tanaka threw 3.2 innings without any setbacks and continued to impress this spring. The fact Tanaka hasn't allowed a run this spring is an added bonus but the important thing is he looks healthy, putting his elbow issues aside for at least the moment that plagued him last year. 

• Even with a poor spring, it would be foolish for the Dodgers to have Andre Eithier play CF for them this year but Joc Pederson is making that decision easy as he has raked thus far. Don Mattingly, who has incentive to not quite anoint anything yet, has nothing but glowing things to say about Joc. I'm fully expecting him to be their every day CF and a 20/20 season from the rookie could be in play. 

• Christian Yelich has reportedly agreed to a 7-year deal with the Marlins for $49 million and change. With Giancarlo Stanton, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna the Marlins might have the best outfield in the majors. His career line of .285/,365/.400 with a 116 wRC+ and above average defense is quite impressive considering Yelich is still only 23 years old. While he hits the ball on the ground a bit much, his youth and build (6'3'' 200+ lbs) could signal an improvement in the power department. I'm not predicting that it comes now or ever, but as we saw with Michael Brantley, spikes in power can make a solid player a MVP candidate and that wouldn't surprise me here. 

Daily Thoughts

For anyone who is hungover after celebrating St. Patrick's Day, just know that Wade Boggs is better than you. 

• Spring training stats mean very little, and we all know that. But, it's still fun to see Mike Trout hit two homers. Trout's by far the best player and I'm not sure who even comes in second to compare him to while he is in his prime. At least A-Rod had Bonds and Pujols had A-Rod. I suppose Miguel Cabrera, since he did steal two MVPs, but Trout has (knock on wood) seven more years before he's even 30 years old. Sheesh.

• Ryan Howard has one of the worst contracts in baseball, but apparently he has some value? Even if the Phillies take on $50 million of the remaining $60 million owed to Howard, I'm not sold he would have any value. Over the last three seasons, Howard has produced -1.0 fWAR. That's right, since 2012 Howard has been below replacement level. In that time frame, Howard ranks 220th in fWAR. Howard is owed $60 million, the Phillies would have to pay a team $70 million to take on his contract. That would provide some value. Maybe.

• The Yankees will need CC Sabathia to be healthy and respectable this year so it was nice to see him throw two innings yesterday. Sabathia apparently "hovered around 90 mph" and was happy with his command. Hovering around 90 might actually be an improvement on his velocity last year too. Although he's put back on some weight, Sabathia returning to his younger self isn't going to happen. However, his biggest problem of late besides health is the long ball. If he could keep the ball in the park (no easy task in Yankee Stadium) he can still be successful. 

• Alex Cobb left his last spring start with forearm tightness. The Rays have now called it forearm tendinitis and Cobb won't be making his Opening Day start and could miss the first few weeks of the season. Cobb has long showed the potential to be an ace of staff but he hasn't been able to throw for an entire season yet. This is the first Cobb injury that is arm related as previous injuries were an oblique and concussion, but it's not a good sign for Cobb or the Rays. Here's to hoping he gets right this season, I'm tired of losing years of young pitchers.

• Keith Law (insider) has his annual list of breakout candidates out now. Law always comes from a real baseball slant, but these can certainly double for fantasy. In respect to Law I won't out all of his picks but you can bet I want Drew Hutchinson as a late round pitcher on all my fantasy teams and I'm certainly in on the Jason Heyward breakout train. 

Daily Thoughts

Happy St. Patrick's Day everyone. MLB does a nice job using pink bats to support breast cancer awareness on Mother's Day, I bet that they could incorporate green baseballs in spring training games today to support another good cause. A green ball might royally screw up a hitter's timing but maybe make it light green? I think I'd prefer to watch a few green baseballs thrown around to eating green bagels this morning.

• Zach Wheeler. Ouch. This is terrible news for Mets fans who after patiently waiting all last season to see Harvey/Wheeler atop the rotation have to wait another year. On the other hand, as far as the 2015 season is concerned, it likely doesn't move the needle much. Wheeler is a solid young pitcher with great pedigree but he was also only worth 1.8 fWAR last season. Dillon Gee, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and co. should hold down the fort well enough. This injury won't necessarily be the reason why the Mets make or miss the playoffs...but it still hurts. 

• Tony Cingrani, who was quite good in 2013 before struggling last year will be moved to the bullpen on the Reds this season. Cingrani has always struggled a bit against right-handed hitters (career .334 wOBA against) but he should dominate lefties (.254 wOBA against) while being more than a classic LOOGY (lefty one out guy). However, in the grand scheme of things this move doesn't mean much as I don't believe Jason Marquis and Paul Maholm will be throwing 200 solid innings for the Reds this year. Cingrani's one pitch profile and inability to get out opposite handed hitters consistently might lead to him being a full time reliever at some point in his career, but I would still expect to see him in the rotation this year. For more news on this, see Dave Cameron's take on Bryan Price playing it safe.

• Who is your favorite Patrick baseball player? Pat Neshek, Pat Hentgen. Patrick Corbin, Pat Burrell, Pat Borders, Pat Listach, Pat Kelly, Pat Rapp? There are many Pats but few Patricks besides Mr. Corbin. However, if we allow middle names, we get some very good players and more current players in Jim Patrick Edmonds, Joseph Patrick Mauer, Joshua Patrick Beckett, Ian Patrick Kennedy. 

• Any time people are vague about an injury, I get a little nervous. Anthony Rendon sprained his knee on March 9th and Matt Williams recently said "you do run out of time eventually." Assuming he's referring to making it back to the lineup for Opening Day, this news doesn't sound too promising. On March 11th we were told Rendon hurt his knee but won't miss much time, on March 13th we were told Rendon will rest a few days and on March 17th we find out we're not sure when he's coming back from a sprained MCL. It's a long season and if the Nationals intend to make it a strong one they will need a healthy Rendon. If he misses a few games in April, so what.

• Fun with spring stats: Kris Bryant leads with six homers. Dee Gordon's five stolen bases and seven attempts are the most thus far this spring. I guess hitters gonna hit and runners gonna run. TJ House is having a strong spring with 10 strikeouts against no walks and which should help him gain control of the Indians fifth starter role. In 102 innings pitched last season, House was quite good pitching to a 3.53/3.69/3.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line with a strong 3.64 K/BB ratio. The next Kluber has to come out of Cleveland, right?

Daily Thoughts: Fantasy and Real

Happy Friday everyone. Remember when TGIF was a thing on TV. Also, remember when you were in college and eating at TGI Fridays tasted reasonable and then you tried it years later and had to call in sick the next day? 

• Will Ferrell had a busy day yesterday. Filming a special on HBO/Funny or Die to support the fight against cancer, Ferrell played for 10 teams yesterday in spring training, playing all of the positions. For what it's worth he had a 0.00 ERA and didn't make an error. Rumor has it that Ruben Amaro has his number. 

• Masahiro Tanaka threw two perfect innings yesterday for the Yankees. While spring training stats are largely irrelevant, it's a good sign to see Tanaka healthy and throwing. He threw some sliders and his patented splitter and reached 94 mph on the gun.  It's likely that Tanaka will need TJ surgery at some point to repair his UCL but if he holds up for 2015, the Yankees will have a far better shot at making the postseason. Now they just have to worry about Sabathia's knee, Pineda's shoulder, Capuano's quadriceps...Fantasy wise, I wouldn't rely on Tanaka for my staff, but if I had another ace I would gladly take a flier on Tanaka and actually look to trade him if he looks like his old bad self in April. #risk 

• Update on Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts - it looks as though Castillo won't be ready for Opening Day. This essentially cements Mookie as the starting CF and it's a role I don't think he will relinquish either this season or over the next 10 years to be honest. 

• Jon Heyman polled some GMs and some of them feel that Jason Heyward could be the next $200 million player. Of more interest to me is a GM quoting Heyward's WAR relative to Giancarlo Stanton's (it's higher) considering Heyman has long been against that particular stat. Either way, Heyward will be the youngest and best free agent available next year and will get paid. Nobody would really be surprised if he put it all together at the plate either and if Heyward taps into some of his power this year, his salary could be closer to $300 million.

• Kris Bryant is good at hitting baseballs far. After hitting two home runs yesterday, Bryant now has four bombs in 14 spring training at bats. Bryant also hit 43 homers in AA/AAA last year and will stay in the minors until May because of antiquated arbitration years. For more on that, read this great piece by Craig Edwards

Daily Thoughts: Fantasy and Real

Some grumblings on this almost Friday...

• Stephen Drew is likely to be the starting 2B for the Yankees at the start of the season. Drew hasn't been exciting since 2008 and hasn't been an intriguing fantasy option since 2010. The only thrilling thing about Drew is likely when he gets moved off the position so we could see Rob Refsnyder get a chance. Of course Brian Cashman believes last year was "some sort of aberration" for Drew so he will certainly get some time there. There might be something to Drew coming in at the middle of the season, and now he is healthier on a normal schedule but I'm not expecting much out of Drew this year for the Yankees or fantasy teams.

• It's only spring and Jered Weaver has never been known for his velocity but he was sitting at 82-84 mph in yesterday's start.  Weaver had 18 wins and a 3.59 ERA last year but as we know, wins don't really mean a thing and his underlying numbers were less than impressive - 4.19 FIP/116 FIP- (a/k/a 16% worse than average). If Weaver maintains his velocity from last year we can expect a drop in production and if Weaver's velocity falls it could get ugly fast.

• All the talk about a Mookie for Strasburg trade, or Mookie not being the every day center fielder could never be taken too seriously and it's mostly because Mookie could be very, very good. Boston papers aren't immune to hyperbole but the scouts say "this guy could be an All-Star this year." For what it's worth, I tend to be in agreement. According to Steamer 600 (which are Steamer projections giving everyone 600 PAs) Mookie would have the 11th best WAR in the MLB among outfielders. Mookie showed  fantastic plate discipline in the minors last year that wasn't degraded in his 52 games on the Red Sox. There may not be one thing that Mookie will lead the league in but there isn't anything that he can't do. The Sox have a fantastic player on their hands and I would target him in all fantasy leagues. Tell your friends you are worried Rusney Castillo will take PT away and then snag Betts.

• Tout Wars had their mixed league draft and the results can be found here. If your looking at it per round, it's important to realize it's a 15-man league. By the time a 12-team league would be finished with 10 rounds, they were finishing up the eighth round. With that said, some interesting picks: Springer in late round two, Chris Sale pretty late in round four his injury is definitely a concern (even if it's minor), Marcus Semien in the eighth (I like him this year), Yasmany Tomas 14th (some shine might be wearing off, especially if he's not going to play third base). Take a look for yourself and drop a line who you think had the best draft.  

Daily Thoughts: Fantasy and Real

Going to try something new here. Every day I'll post a few links and/or thoughts on the baseball world, some just about good old fashioned baseball and some that are fantasy relevant. If you have any critiques, please let me know!

• Cy Young Award Winner Corey Kluber and the Indians may or may not be looking to reach an extension but it sounds like a "possibility." Although Kluber is new to the the major league scene, he'll turn 29 on April 10th and with four years of arbitration remaining, the Indians could go year to year and essentially have his entire prime without inheriting any risk. Of course if Kluber continues this performance he might end up being quite expensive in arbitration, but that sounds like a better risk for a team like the Indians than hoping that a 34 year old Kluber can still earn his salary.

• The latest news from he Yasmany Tomas experience at third base isn't too encouraging. I imagine he will continue to get an opportunity to prove himself there, even mid-season but the Dbacks might have to look elsewhere for their 3B this year. Jacob Lamb could get some time if Tomas moves to the OF and he would be a nice sleeper pick for fantasy. Lamb has some discipline issues but a lefty hitting third baseman with pop in Arizona could do some damage. Tomas isn't 3B eligible in all fantasy leagues either, which could hurt his value if he doesn't open the season there. 

• Marcus Stroman's ACL tear really stinks. Fans of baseball miss out on a great young pitcher, fantasy baseball owners miss out on a future ace for their staff and the Blue Jays now have a gaping hole in their rotation. I've often been swayed by pitching prospects with impressive tools and fastballs but Stroman helped show how valuable command/control is. Of any starter with 120 or more innings pitched, Stroman provided top-30 value, putting up 3.3 fWAR and his 2.84 FIP ranked 17th.

• Surgery might end Cliff Lee's season and potentially his career, although I doubt Lee would leave so much money on the table, but who knows. Looking at you, Gil Meche. Lee's injuries should tell Ruben Amaro to get the ball rolling on a Hamels trade, but doing the smart thing would go against everything Amaro stands for. An injured Hamels won't get traded but a healthy one 100% will and it's looking more like it will be mid-season.