Jeter, Some Ichiro, and a Lazy Sunday

Over at BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski posted his ZiPS projections on how Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki's (along with Dickie Thorn) careers will/would end up. For Ichiro he adjusts his Japan statistics to what he'd do in the majors if he was on Seattle the entire time, and the career results are quite fantastic. In theory, if Ichiro played his entire career in Seattle and finishes up how ZiPS says, he'd finish with 4,188 hits. That would place him one hit behind Ty Cobb, and 68 behind Pete Rose. Obviously Ichiro did a lot of his damage in Japan, but this just goes to show how great he is.

Derek Jeter projects to finish with 3574 hits, 280 homers, 1986 runs, .310 batting average, and 116 OPS+. It says Jeter will still be an above average hitter from 2010-2012, but after that his OPS+ were under 100 (2013-2015). Regardless, that would place Jeter 5th all time in hits and 9th all time in runs. Shortstop wise (75% of your games at SS) those numbers would place him 1st in hits, 1st in runs, 3rd in homers, 7th in OPS+. Basically Jeter is tops in career counting numbers or averages at the shortstop position. Plus, these career projections are likely on the conservative side. It's obviously no sure thing for JEter to be getting regular playing time until 2015 without injury, but Jeter could be a special case. He's 35 years old and he's showed no real aging pattern, he's had career years at ages 25, 32, and 35. You can't fight age, and as you get older you should start getting worse, but maybe Jeter plays at a similar level for the next couple of years, and doesn't decline as quickly as the ZiPS projections suggest. It's not out of the question, and either way Jeter is still one of the best (probably 2nd best) shortstops of all time.

In other news, the Yankees dominated the White Sox last night with 2 pitchers (Mitre and Gaudin) throwing a one hitter. They're 81-48 with a 6 game lead in the division. They have the best record in baseball, and the 2nd best run differential. Anyway you want to slice it, the Yankees are sick and going to make the playoffs. They can legitimately start looking ahead towards October and planning for it.

Joba Chamberlain pitches today against Freddy Garcia, possibly fighting for his rotation spot in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, is there any chance you would pitch Joba ahead of Andy? The Yankees are now having Joba throw every 5th day from here on out to try to see if that consistency can get him going. He's been on and off all year and has been off in his last 4 starts (20 innings 19 earned runs) while Andy's last 8 starts have him at 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and probably most surprising are the 54 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. It's an easy call right now, but the Yankees would love to have a problem deciding between 3rd and 4th starters if both are pitching well.

After this game the Yankees travel to Baltimore for 3, and then to Toronto for a 4 game series. It should be an easy week for the Yankees and I say they win tonight, and win 5 games against the O's and Jays.

Say It Aint So, Derek

The always reliable New York Post reports that Derek Jeter and actress Minka Kelly are secretly engaged. If it's true does that mean Arod and Khud will get engaged so Arod can one up Jeter? He shouldn't try though because this:


Is much better than this:


Arod can have the records, Cap'n Jetes will take the rings and girls and so would you. If this news is to be true, let's recap the ladies that have been linked with Jeter:

• Mariah Carey: Jeter banged it before she went crazy!
  
• Lara Dutta: Legit hot, I looked her up, I advise you do the same.
  
• Jordana Brewster: Fast and/or Furious always equals hot chicks.
  
• Adriana Lima: Amazing, I just felt it move.
  
• Vanessa Minnillo: Nick Lachey and you all would love to have Jeter's leftovers.
  
• Jessica Alba: No comment necessary.
  
• Vida Guerra: Have to say I thought Jeter had more class than this, but you can't blame him.
  
• Scarlett Johannson: Sssssssick.
  
• Jessica Biel: Ssssssick x2.
• Minka Kelly: If Jeter could go through all the ladies above and decide to slow down with her, I'm not going to be the one to criticize him.
  

A couple of days ago I talked about how Jeter will likely go down as the 2nd best shortstop of all time and in all seriousness the list above is more impressive than anything he's done on the field. Is it harder to hit 600 homers or date Jessica Biel, Jessica Alba, and Scarlett Johannson? Tough question, I think you know the answer.

Yankee Fans, Quick Question

Jeff's post brings up a good question for the Yankees this offseason, with Matsui's recent hot streak should the Yankees bring him back?

I think it's assumed the Yankees will bring back Damon on a 2 year $16m type of deal, in addition to that should they also bring back Matsui on a one year deal, not bring him back and rely on an Austin Jackson, or not bring him back and try to sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday?

If the Yankees call up Jackson and rely on him next year they are looking at an outfield of Jackson in left, Melky/Gardner in center, and Swisher in right, that's a pretty weak outfield. They could also rotate Damon in LF and Jackson in CF, but this year Damon's UZR/150 at LF is -9.0. If that's a trend, he may be a DH himself.

If the Yankees sign Bay or Holliday they lock up the LF slot with good production, but also spend millions of dollars for presumabely several years. A lot of money will be coming off the books with Damon and Matsui, but should they immediately put that money into a 30 year old LF?

If they don't want to sign an expensive free agent, and don't want to rely on a rookie, the Yankees can simply resign Matsui on a cheap one year deal. It's not like teams are going to be chomping at the bit to sign Matsui, he can't play in the NL and only a few teams will have room for an aging DH.

After not wanting to sign Matsui the entire year, my choice is to now keep him. The difference in production between Matsui and Bay/Holliday isn't enough compared to the difference in price. Bay is definitely not worth it considering he's been a horrible LF the last several years and that he isn't a significantly better hitter than Matsui (24.4 park adjusted runs above average compared to Matsui's 17.1). Holliday makes more sense than Bay as he's both a better hitter and a solid fielder, but something like 4 years $56m just isn't something that appeals to me.

Austin Jackson should be a good player, but instead of relying on that to happen next year, the Yankes can resign both Damon and Matsui and work Jackson in as they need. Then in 2011 Jackson can be a full time player with some experience under his belt and the Yankees will have saved millions that they could use elsewhere.

What say you about this? Please post your thoughts in the comments section, maybe we can have a little discussion.

State of the Yankees, Issue 5

This week’s edition of “State of the Yankees” is a follow up to the first edition, which spent its efforts explaining my hatred for Hideki Matsui. And while I still don’t want to see him in pinstripes this week, anyone deserves their praise when they’ve been playing as well as Matsui has recently. When I wrote that edition, about a month ago, Matsui’s stats looked like this:

2009 (89 games as of July 27, 2009): .256 avg, 15 HR, 33 runs, 44 RBI

2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .256 avg, 25 HR, 56 runs, 78 RBI

We are now approaching the end of August, and here are what Matsui’s statistics look like:

2009 (111 games as of August 25, 2009): .271 avg, 23 HR, 44 runs, 71 RBI

2009 (on pace according to ESPN): .271 avg, 30 HR, 64 runs, 94 RBI

So, let’s look at that again. A month ago, Matsui was only projected to hit 25 home runs at the pace he was hitting during the season only 89 games into the season. In the 22 games that have been played since, Matsui has hit 8 home runs, and driven in 27 RBI, and has now changed his ESPN projections to 30 home runs and 94 RBI. Those type of numbers (along with a projected 147 games played) would be very close to his 2007 numbers when he drove in 103 runs and hit 25 home runs. In the month of August, Matsui has hit nearly 100 points over his season average entering August, at a .343 clip. His run driving in ability has helped solidify an offense that has helped the Yankees to a 16-6 record in the month entering Wednesday’s game.

More importantly, in the last series against the Red Sox (in Fenway no less), Matsui had two multi-HR games and helped the Yankees take 2/3 from the Sox, and further solidify their place atop the AL East. The Yankees now sit comfortably atop the East entering September, and the Red Sox can feel Texas and Tampa breathing down their necks. A good place for both teams, for Yankees fans that is; and Matsui has certainly been a major part of the Yankees overtaking of the Red Sox. While I will stand by my position that I do not want Matsui back next season, he certainly deserves his props for the amazing August he has had. Keep it up Hit-Deki!

Yankees Player of the Week: Read this article, and it is clearly Hideki Matsui who is deserving of the award this week. Along with the both two-HR games against the Red Sox in Fenway, Matsui has 5 two-hit games this week and has driven in 13. Numbers worthy of this weeks award.

Non-Yankees Fun Fact of the Week: Entering June 3rd, the Colorado Rockies sat 15 ½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Entering Wednesday night’s contest against the Dodgers, the Rockies have managed to shrink that deficit to a mere 2 games by going 50-22. The Rockies are rolling, and that once incredibly safe lead the Dodgers had over the rest of the NL West looks to be turning into an uncomfortable lead over fellow NL Wild Card contenders. Congrats to the Rockies, who are playing their way to a division title.

Fans Scouting Report, 2009

I check Tom Tango's The Book Blog basically everyday, and he's asked for everyone to help out on his Fans Scouting Report. So, in a move that makes me feel important I'll ask you all to go here, and submit your own evaluations.

He asks for you to rely solely on your eyes, so don't do any research beforehand to tell you how Hanley Ramirez's footwork is, just answer how you've seen it.

(Trading) Tuesday Is Mets Day

Because I keep posting about them, although this one is more Red Sox oriented beucase after a lot of rumors, and some complaining by Papelbon, the Mets and Red Sox finally agreed on a deal with the Mets sending Wagner to the Red Sox in exchange for two PTBNL.

I found the Papelbon comments pretty funny. I mean he has a point, why mess with a good thing, but this is coming from the guy that said he should be the closer over Mariano at the all-star game last year at Yankee Stadium.* Plus, if the Sox are close to acquiring a player, why talk publicly that you don't need that player? Sure, maybe Wagner comes in and it doesn't work out too well like the Gagne situation that Papelbon mentioned, but what would be worse is saying how you don't want Wagner to come and then having to actually deal with him coming.

*A year later and Mo is still better. Papelbon has a 2.04 ERA but on the heels of a 3.6 (a career worst) FIP, and 1.30 WHIP (a career worst). Meanwhile, Mr. Mo has a 1.87 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He's struck out 59 batters and walked 9, good for a mind boggling 6.56 k/bb, lightyears ahead of Papelbon's 2.42. Papelbon is still an elite closer, but before people try saying he's the Red Sox' Mo, let's see him do it for another 10 years without skipping a beat.

The Red Sox have the best bullpen in the league and they likely don't need Billy Wagner, but that doesn't mean he won't make them a better team. It may be overkill, but the Sox can afford overkill so why not try it out? Plus, there are other teams who could use Wagner's services like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays, so even just as a way of blocking them this seems like a harmless move. Another plus that seems to be forgotten is that he's lefty and throws 95. Wanger won't be the difference between the Sox making the playoffs or not, but if they do make the playoffs, he could have a big effect on how Francona is able to use his pen, and in a good way.

Recent struggles aside, Daniel Bard seems to be fit to close in the future and if not Billy Wagner could be a capable closer next year if all goes well. That is to say next season do the Red Sox really need Papelbon? It's a move that fans would hate, but a move that's smart and a move that a team like the Red Sox (and maybe only the Red Sox) would make. Teams love having that sure-fire closer and they spend millions of dollars on even average ones. The Red Sox can't go year to year with Papelbon forever, soon he will get expensive and require a multi year deal. I imagine there will be an NL team or two willing to give up some nice pieces for Papelbon this offseason, I wonder if the Red Sox will bite.

New Johan Info.

Buster Olney reports today that there have been red flags since 2007 about Johan's elbow:

At the end of the 2007 season, scouts reported that Santana's velocity was down and that he had basically stopped throwing his slider. Officials from the Red Sox and Yankees took this as a sign that Santana was having elbow trouble and wanted to avoid the torque inherent in throwing a slider.

In 2006 Johan's average fastball velocity was 93.1 mph, in 2007 it was 91.7 and this year it's 90.5. In 2004, the start of Johan's amazing run he threw his slider 19.6%, in 2006 it was 16.5%, in 2007 it was 11.6% and this year it's 9.4%. So, the scouts that Olney speaks of clearly were on to something.

After Liriano threw 37.6% sliders in 2006 en route to Tommy John Surgery it shouldn't be a shocker that the Twins decided to limit the amount of sliders Johan threw, especially if there were already concerns with his elbow. It's also not like the slider wasn't a useful pitch, having positive pitch values according to Fangraphs, with the slider being his 2nd best pitch in 2006. Interesting then that he'd throw it 5% less in 2007 after it was such a useful pitch, another sign pointing towards a potential elbow issue.

The Mets signed Pedro Martinez and didn't get much production out of him, it wouldn't be a total shock if a similar thing happens with Johan. It will be very hard for Johan to live up to the salary that he'll get in the coming years. He'll essentially have to play at a similar level as he did from 2004-2008 for the next 5 years, and with declining velocity and this new (although possibly somewhat old) elbow issue, that looks unlikely. Production wise, the Pedro signing was a disaster, but people played it off as a "culture changing" move, that the Mets wouldn't have gotten Beltran or Delgado if it wasn't for the Pedro signing. That may be so (I'm not buying it), but will they say similar things about Johan if he needs elbow surgery and isn't the same ace as he has been before?

Then again, Chris Carpenter has had 2 Tommy John Surgeries and basically hasn't pitched since 2006 and he has a 2.16 ERA this year.

The Yankees looked stupid last year missing the playoffs with Melky stinking it up and Hughes/Kennedy not giving them anything. This year however Melky's been pretty good and Hughes has been a revelation the bullpen. It's too early to tell just like it was after one year last year, but considering the Yankees got Sabathia, long term and now maybe even the short term it may have been the right non-move for the Yankees.

UPDATE 4:02PM: Well, it looks like Johan will undergo minor elbow surgery and should return by Spring Training. It looks like the Mets may have dodged a bullet here, albeit from a gun that they pulled the trigger on.