Last week I started what will soon be a longstanding tradition here, a Yankees roundtable with two knowledable buddies of mine, Jeff and Steve. The first question last week was: What are your biggest worries about the Yankees? To follow up on those answers, this week the question is:
We were all in agreement last week that pitching was the biggest concern for the Yankees. With that said are you more or less worried than you were last week, and how do you think the Yankees rotation and bullpen will look like in the playoffs as well as spring of next year?
Jeff: With a week having passed, I would say that I am both more worried and less worried about the Yankees pitching situation. Ivan Nova has looked good in his first two starts, but is not a realistic playoff option. AJ Burnett got hit hard again this week in his start against the White Sox, and Javy has been delegated to the bullpen. I still think that Hughes is ultimately a bullpen option for the playoffs, due to his innings situation, so more than likely the Yankees #3 and #4 options for the playoff rotation are Burnett and Javy... is there a Yankees fan out there that has confidence in either of those arms right now?
At the same time, there is highly encouraging news regarding the health and status of Andy Pettitte, who time and time again has been the foundation of excellence when it comes to playoff baseball. With Pettitte coming back, and hopefully healthy, the Yankees should be very confident in the #1 and #2 holes for the playoff rotation. Additionally, the bullpen, particularly Kerry Wood, have been mostly effective heading into the home stretch of the regular season. Robertson got hit hard the other day, but I still have confidence in him. With a pen of Robertson, Chamberlain (who has been better of late), Wood, Logan and Rivera, I am mostly confident that any Yankees lead handed to these arms in the playoffs is safe.
Steve:If this question is asking me whether or not I'm comfortable going forward with Ivan Nova as the third starter, then my answer is no--not comfortable. The guy does not project to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter in his career. He now has the advantage of having pitched well in his first few starts, which NY fans will certainly run with. We've seen guys like Aaron Small ride that type of thing out, but I can't imagine Nova will be making any postseason starts unless the Yanks are really in a bind.
I still see Javy Vazquez returning to the rotation. I even like him better than AJ for that third spot in the rotation. Burnett can dazzle, but he's been pretty shaky all year long in 2010. And I wouldn't be surprised if something is secretly bothering him. The guy hides injuries like he hides neck tats. Vazquez is a smart pitcher. I think he will figure this thing out before the end of Sept.
I actually do like the bullpen. Wood is a great compliment to Jobertson and any pen with Mo at the end is gonna look pretty sharp. Even loogy Boone looks to be holding his own in the AL (I like when Ben refers to it as the Varsity).
So am I still worried? Sure. There's a lot riding on Andy Pettitte's 40 year old hams this year. But the pen looks solid even going into next year, and I'm never worried about the Yankees future. They've rewarded us the right to be a little reckless with our confidence.
Ben: Personally I’m more concerned than I was last week. I agree with Jeff and Steve’s assessments that our bullpen looks quite good. AWood/Joba/Robertson combo is great for the 7th and 8th innings, and Boone Logan is a capable Loogy, but I was never really concerned about the bullpen in the first place. On the rotation side, since last week CC has maintained his excellence but Burnett threw another clunker, Vazquez can’t beat out a rookie for a rotation spot, and Phil Hughes couldn’t get out of the 4th inning, continuing his seemingly unnoticed slide into decency.* Plus, the guy everyone points to pull us out of this is Andy Pettitte, who at best will be healthy in 2 weeks, and that likely involves a couple starts on a strict pitch count.
*Phil Hughes first 9 starts: 6 wins, 56 IP, 57 SO, 2.70 ERA.
Phil Hughes last 15 starts: 9 wins, 87 IP, 65 SO, 5.03 ERA.
This doesn’t bother me too much for the rest of the season because the Yankees are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot. It’s once we get to the postseason that gets me worried. Realistically the only guy we can count on is CC. I disagree with Jeff and don’t think that the Yankees can be very confident in Pettitte for the postseason for 3 main reasons: First of all he’s 38. Secondly, there is no guarantee that he will be effective once he comes back. Lastly, any slight setback and he may not be even pitching for us, let alone effectively. Pettitte should be ready in about 2 weeks and at that point he still won’t be able to go 100+ pitches. So it will take another couple starts after that until he’s up to snuff for the playoffs. That literally leaves no wiggle room for Pettitte, if he has to take some extra time he may not be able to give us 7 innings in the playoffs.
As it stands, the Yankees might have the worst starting pitching of all the teams in the postseason if the season ended today. You only need 3 starters for the playoffs except the Yankees only really have one, and it’s the other starters on the Rays, Rangers, and Twins that are better than the current tired Hughes/sucky Burnett/sucky Vazquez/injured Pettitte/rookie Nova/Dustin Mosley(?) combination.
Now it must be said that I don’t think the Yankees will struggle down the stretch or even in the playoffs, they have a solid bullpen and the best lineup in the league, it’s just that their rotation is worrisome, or as worried as one can get in first place with the best record in the league.
As far as the offseason/future goes I’m pretty much with Steve and I’m not concerned, whatever holes need to be filled in the rotation will be filled. Locked in are CC, Hughes, and Burnett (unfortunately) for next year. In addition to those for some speculative guesses I think that the Yankees will sign Cliff Lee, convince Andy to give it another go, entertain putting Joba back into the rotation, and give a guy like Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang a chance to prove themselves. Along with Nova and Gaudin/Mitre the Yankees in 2011 will have a rotation of Sabathia/Lee/Hughes/Pettitte/ and one of Joba/Nova/Webb. It’s just a guess, but I think it’s plausible if not pretty likely.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
September 1st, Aroldis Chapman Day?
According to J.J. Cooper and Cincinnati Reds fans everywhere, it just may be.
In his last outing, Chapman supposedly hit 105(!) mph on the radar gun and Cooper notes how it "was seen on multiple radar guns, not just one amped up stadium gun." According to Cooper:
It's hard to wrap your head around (at least I'm struggling) that speed. At 105 mph Chapman can take 5 mph off his fastball and throw faster than all but a handful (maybe half of a handful) of major league players. Chapman can throw a 95 mph changeup and still have a 10 mph differential between his fastball and changeup. Chapman can lose 18-20% of his velocity and still throw harder than Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Ted Lilly, and Barry Zito, Mark Buehrle, and Trevor Hoffman.
Before we get too excited (and possibly disappointed) Tim Marchman noted the top strikeout pitchers 22 or younger with at least 50 IP. The results:
On a more positive note, the Reds are currently the best team in the National League (at least according to my power rankings) and you know what their biggest weakness is? Relief pitching. You know what Aroldis Chapman will help a lot with? Relief pitching. The Phillies are finally healthy and could become the team to beat in the NL (again), but with the best player in the league (no real need to add the formely necessary modifier 'AA' After Albert to that statement) in Joey Votto, a good young pitching staff, and now Aroldis Chapman, the team that started on a few sleeper lists in March could be an obvious choice for NL participant in the Fall Classic.
In his last outing, Chapman supposedly hit 105(!) mph on the radar gun and Cooper notes how it "was seen on multiple radar guns, not just one amped up stadium gun." According to Cooper:
"That kind of velocity almost breaks the 20-80 scouting scale. If grading purely on velocity, a 97 mph fastball is considered an 80, or the upper end of the scale. Subtract eight miles per hour from that down to 89 and you are looking at a 40-45 on the scouting scale. There's nothing in the scouting scale to account for a pitch eight miles an hour faster than what's already considered an 80."Wow. Strasburg could throw 100 mph and people were getting giddy, Chapman can throw 5 mph faster. Obviously it takes more than just velocity to succeed in the majors, and Strasburg was the more established pitcher, but daaaaaaamn Aroldis might be the best thrower of all time. He will be called up and put in the Reds pen, but hopefully we can will see Aroldis and his consistent 100+ mph heat for 7 innings a game next year. Everyone likes to distinguish between a pitcher and a thrower (like I kind of did just now), I wonder at what point does the distinction become somewhat irrelevent. Aroldis clearly has to gain better control (as a starter, he's been pretty good in that regard as a reliever), but you'd think anyone will be somewhat successful at that speed.
It's hard to wrap your head around (at least I'm struggling) that speed. At 105 mph Chapman can take 5 mph off his fastball and throw faster than all but a handful (maybe half of a handful) of major league players. Chapman can throw a 95 mph changeup and still have a 10 mph differential between his fastball and changeup. Chapman can lose 18-20% of his velocity and still throw harder than Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Ted Lilly, and Barry Zito, Mark Buehrle, and Trevor Hoffman.
Before we get too excited (and possibly disappointed) Tim Marchman noted the top strikeout pitchers 22 or younger with at least 50 IP. The results:
1 Kerry Wood 12.58 1998 21That's the K/9 ratio, the year, and the age. As you can see, each of those pitchers either got hurt, got bad, did drugs, or did a combination of both. With 105 mph heat, Aroldis Chapman will surely post a K/9 like those dudes, most likely towards the top of the list. Does that mean he will get hurt? No. Does it mean we shouldn't be surprised if he does get hurt? Yes. This news doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited for Aroldis Chapman to arrive, we should be very, very excited just as we were to watch those other guys. However, we should temper our expectations of anointing him the best pitcher in baseball, or at least waiting until after his first Tommy John surgery. Kidding of course, kinda.
2 Stephen Strasburg 12.18 2010 21
3 Dwight Gooden 11.39 1984 19
4 Mark Prior 11.34 2002 21
5 Oliver Perez 10.97 2004 22
6 Sam McDowell 10.71 1965 22
7 Mark Prior 10.43 2003 22
8 Scott Kazmir 10.14 2006 22
9 Oliver Perez 10.02 2003 21
10 Rick Ankiel 9.98 2000 20
On a more positive note, the Reds are currently the best team in the National League (at least according to my power rankings) and you know what their biggest weakness is? Relief pitching. You know what Aroldis Chapman will help a lot with? Relief pitching. The Phillies are finally healthy and could become the team to beat in the NL (again), but with the best player in the league (no real need to add the formely necessary modifier 'AA' After Albert to that statement) in Joey Votto, a good young pitching staff, and now Aroldis Chapman, the team that started on a few sleeper lists in March could be an obvious choice for NL participant in the Fall Classic.
Livan Extended Through 2011
When I read the news that Livan Hernandez signed an extension with the Nationals my initial reaction was "I can't believe the Nats are going to overpay Livan for what he's done this year". However, I then saw that it is just one year deal at $1 million plus incentives. Livan Hernandez has certainly been a benefactor of some luck this year, but even if he produces as he did in 2008 and 2009 (or even a little worse), he's still a bargain. He put up 1.7 WAR last year and 1.4 the year before which equated to $14.1 million. Livan won't put up the close to 3 WAR he's on pace for this year, but he obviously doesn't need to in order to earn the contract. On a young team that is thin on starting pitching (even before Strasburg's injury), an innings eater like Livan is necessary. Plus, if you can put a decent/good defense behind him ( he can't strike anyone out, 4.67 K/9) Livan could give you a good amount of positive value. My initial reaction to this news couldn't be more off, an overall a great move by the Nats.
Manny To The Sox!
The White Sox that is.
I briefly mentioned it in the power rankings, but I'll talk about it in more depth here.
Unless this is as viewed as a partial tryout for next year, the White Sox acquired Manny Ramirez to help there playoff chances. Those chances are pretty slim as they are 4.5 back from the division leading Twins and 10 back of the Wild Card. However, getting Manny obviously increases those chances. He replaces often used DH Mark Kotsay essentially who would project to have below average production from here on out. ZiPS projects Manny to have a .400 wOBA for the rest of the season (which is to say they're going from a AAA OF to a top 10 hitter), and I kind of think that should be the baseline of what to expect. He likely own't perform worse than that and over a month could easily eclipse it. The change of leagues will have no effect as Manny has always performed well in the Varsity, plus he's moving to a ballpark that will be much better for him.
It's a hefty price of about $4m but it's really a win win for the White Sox because even a bad Manny improves their playoff chances and a good Manny could be the difference in making the playoffs or not. It also could provide an audition for a potential bargain next year. The days of Manny making $20m+ are over, and he will likely be looking at a contract that Vlad or Beltre got this year, a one year deal with incentives and maybe a team option. We know he will play on the White Sox this year but let's speculate where he might land in the offseason. He has to be looked at as a full time DH so only an AL team looking towards the playoffs should be interested and those teams consist of:
Yankees: They'll have the DH spot open but I think they'd rather have Jesus Montero fill that slot. Unless his price comes down to a matter of 1-2 million I don't think they try. Verdict: Unlikely
Red Sox: Not much needs to be said, Verdict: NGA (not gonna (h)appen)
Rays: Open DH spot and they will actually have money to spend. If Manny fell to them I think they would have made the claim, Verdict: Likely
Twins: Thome has been a perfect fit this year, so he will be resigned likely cheaper than Manny, Verdict: Unlikely.
White Sox: The DH spot has been a thorn in their side all year, and Manny is finally filling that hole, or trimming those thorns depending on what analogy you want to use. If he does OK he'll be real cheap and if he does well the ChiSox will want him back, Verdict: Extremely likely
Tigers: They're always trying to compete and have the money. Although they need some pitching an offer to Manny could work, Verdict: Possible
Rangers: Similar to the Thome situation in Minnesota, it's likely that the Rangers resign their own (Vlad), Verdict: Unlikely
A's: They are no longer rebuilding per se and need a lot of hitting. They have plenty of DH types already but they've also had a history of getting guys like this (i.e. Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi (2nd time around), Verdict: Likely
Angels: They aren't going to start some rebuilding process but I just can't see them signing a guy like Manny. He doesn't fit in with the 'Angels way', Verdict: Hell no.
I briefly mentioned it in the power rankings, but I'll talk about it in more depth here.
Unless this is as viewed as a partial tryout for next year, the White Sox acquired Manny Ramirez to help there playoff chances. Those chances are pretty slim as they are 4.5 back from the division leading Twins and 10 back of the Wild Card. However, getting Manny obviously increases those chances. He replaces often used DH Mark Kotsay essentially who would project to have below average production from here on out. ZiPS projects Manny to have a .400 wOBA for the rest of the season (which is to say they're going from a AAA OF to a top 10 hitter), and I kind of think that should be the baseline of what to expect. He likely own't perform worse than that and over a month could easily eclipse it. The change of leagues will have no effect as Manny has always performed well in the Varsity, plus he's moving to a ballpark that will be much better for him.
It's a hefty price of about $4m but it's really a win win for the White Sox because even a bad Manny improves their playoff chances and a good Manny could be the difference in making the playoffs or not. It also could provide an audition for a potential bargain next year. The days of Manny making $20m+ are over, and he will likely be looking at a contract that Vlad or Beltre got this year, a one year deal with incentives and maybe a team option. We know he will play on the White Sox this year but let's speculate where he might land in the offseason. He has to be looked at as a full time DH so only an AL team looking towards the playoffs should be interested and those teams consist of:
Yankees: They'll have the DH spot open but I think they'd rather have Jesus Montero fill that slot. Unless his price comes down to a matter of 1-2 million I don't think they try. Verdict: Unlikely
Red Sox: Not much needs to be said, Verdict: NGA (not gonna (h)appen)
Rays: Open DH spot and they will actually have money to spend. If Manny fell to them I think they would have made the claim, Verdict: Likely
Twins: Thome has been a perfect fit this year, so he will be resigned likely cheaper than Manny, Verdict: Unlikely.
White Sox: The DH spot has been a thorn in their side all year, and Manny is finally filling that hole, or trimming those thorns depending on what analogy you want to use. If he does OK he'll be real cheap and if he does well the ChiSox will want him back, Verdict: Extremely likely
Tigers: They're always trying to compete and have the money. Although they need some pitching an offer to Manny could work, Verdict: Possible
Rangers: Similar to the Thome situation in Minnesota, it's likely that the Rangers resign their own (Vlad), Verdict: Unlikely
A's: They are no longer rebuilding per se and need a lot of hitting. They have plenty of DH types already but they've also had a history of getting guys like this (i.e. Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi (2nd time around), Verdict: Likely
Angels: They aren't going to start some rebuilding process but I just can't see them signing a guy like Manny. He doesn't fit in with the 'Angels way', Verdict: Hell no.
Monday Power Rankings
1. Rays (Last week 1)- Last week they were number one and were behind the Yankees, this week they're number one and are tied with the Yankees. They're doing it with great pitching (more or less 5 above average starters all season), great defense, and good enough hitting. Kind of a no brainer. It will be interesting offseason for the Rays. They theoretically could be coming off a world series championship and have to break up the core, it will be hard to retain Crawford
2. Yankees (2)- You can't put anyone else above them besides the Rays but they do seem highly vulnerable. Ivan Nova pitched great yesterday but it's a scary thought that he could be in the playoff rotation. Think about it though; Pettitte is no lock to be back healthy and pitching on a 100+ pitch count, Burnett is simply abysmal, Vazquez was so bad he's a reliever, and Hughes for all the goodness he's given has an ERA north of 5 since June.
3. Twins (3)- Not really a good week, but they're still the 3rd best team in the AL which means they are the 3rd best team in baseball.
4. Rangers (7)- The only real team who jumped a good amount this week. The NL Leaders didn't have great weeks and they beat the Twins 3 times.
5. Red Sox (4)- There are teams in the NL with better records but can you really tell me that they are better teams than the Red Sox? Maybe a partial reason for doing these rankings is to illustrate the difference in quality between leagues, but so be it.
6. Reds (8)- Rose this week mostly because of bad weeks by the Braves and Padres, but they are still playing well and with a 5 game lead over St. Louis they may have locked up the division.
7. Braves (6)- Got swept by the Rockies but ended up taking 2/3 from the Marlins. They still have a slight lead (2 games) over the Phillies but new 1b Derek Lee has given them nothing and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if the Braves missed out on the postseason. I have to rank them for what they've done, not what they might do in the future so they're still 7th, but I'm not loving their chances from this point out anymore.
8. Phillies (9)- They got swept by the Astros but they also swept the Padres. They arguably have the best talent in the NL and in the last month I think that will begin to show. Don't be surprised to see them rise in the coming weeks.
9. Padres (5)- Really bad week, have lost 4 in a row including a sweep by the Phillies. A 5 game lead over the Giants still gives them a nice buffer zone, but they can't keep having weeks like this if they plan to make the playoffs, let alone do well in the playoffs.
10. Giants (13)- As it's noted above they are 5 games back of the division lead but just 1.5 from the wild card. We know they have the pitching (with Lincy being the weak link?) and now Kung-Fu Panda may be ready to join their surprisingly decent to good lineup batting .481 this week with 9 RBI.
Best of the Rest
11. White Sox (11)- Last week I made fun of Mark Kotsay, Kenny Williams may have listened and gotten himself some Manny Ramirez. Manny has become the TO of baseball amazing when he tries, a cancer when he doesn't. Trying to play for a new contract next year, I suspect he'll rake and although he won't be enough to get the Sox into the playoffs, it'll be fun to watch.
12. Rockies (14)- Swept the Braves and took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers. CarGo the destroyer is back, and suddenly they are still within a prayer of the postseason.
13. Blue Jays (12)- The Jose Bautista show continues as the Jays fight to seem relevant even though they are better than 20 or so teams in the league.
14. Cardinals (10)- Terrible week losing series' to Pittsburgh and Washington. It will be tough coming out of this hole, but maybe they can "Restore the Honor". I can't believe I just linked a Glenn Beck page, excuse me while I barf.
15. A's (16)- Great young pitching with a handful of starters in their 20s with ERAs under 4, impressive.
16. Dodgers (18)- They aren't bad but it's almost better to be bad than kind of good so you don't ruin your future, which may have happened slightly with their deadline deals
17. Marlins (15)- Nolasco will either be put on the DL or just stink when he starts because of his injury. The Fish are always decent sprinkled with some good years, maybe next year they have one?
18. Tigers (19)- Miguel Cabrera continues to mash like hell, too bad the rest of the team is hurt or just bad.
19. Mets (20)- At this point in the rankings, being mediocre ain't bad
20. Brewers (21)- 3 wins in a row. In an always kind of bleh division, if Weeks is legit and Braun and Prince have turnaround seasons they could make a run.
21. Angels (17)- Horrible week continues their dreadful season. 5 games under .500. They have been good for a long time now, will they rebound over the young Rangers and A's?
22. Astros(22)- Once they rebuild the team becomes good. It's likely just a flash in the pan but still.
No Ranking Needed
Nats- Strasburg is gone, 'nuff said.
Cubs- Anyone else realize that Dempster is kinda legit?
Royals-Top farm system should all be up in the majors around the time Greinke signs with the Yankees.
Indians-Safe to call LaPorta a bust?
Diamondbacks- Dan Hudson has been terrific, but so has Max Scherzer.
Orioles- Luke Scott, do you trade him for value or keep him cause he isn't too old and is quite good?
Mariners- The horrendous year for the #6org continues!
Pirates- I'm assuming there is light at the end of this tunnel you just may need to bring your binoculars.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Oy Vey!
Stephen Strasburg will likely be heading to the operating table for some good ole fashion Tommy John surgery . Since the Nationals handled Strasburg with kid gloves when he first was hurt, it was kind of assumed (at least by me) they were just being careful again (wishful thinking?) but it now appears he has "a significant tear in his ulnar collateral ligament that probably will require reconstructive Tommy John elbow surgery." Yikes! This is obviously bad news for any baseball fan let alone Nationals fans who really have nothing else to root for now besides Bryce Harper's batting practice.
Everyone is obviously a little saddened by the news, but you would be hard pressed to find someone (who knows anything about baseball, pitchers, and injuries) who is surprised. The good news: there is a high success rate with TJ surgery (Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson). The bad news: we won't see Strasburg on a baseball field for another 12-18 months, and it may be (and likely will be) longer than that until he is effective. Liriano had the surgery in 2007, and only now (2+ years later) is he back to form.
Strasburg is a once in a lifetime kind of arm, let's hope he has a smooth recovery and comes back stronger (hey, it happens) than ever.
Where Will Reyes Be In 2011
Jose Reyes left the game last night after re-aggravating his oblique and there has been recent chatter about where he will play next year. Reyes has recently said that he wants to stay, and the Mets have said they will likely exercise his $11m option for next year, but there still have been rumors (largely dumb radio callers but still) that Reyes may be (and should be) traded next year. One of the ideas behind trading Reyes has been that the Mets have to blow up their core in order to get better. The Reyes/Wright/Santana/Beltran core, it has been said, hasn't done anything, and it's time to hit the theoretical reset button. If that's the philosophy behind trading Reyes, I wholeheartedly disagree. The Mets had 2 unlikely collapses, were ravaged by injuries last year, and weren't expected to do any better or worse than they are this year, I don't think that's grounds to decide "hey let's trade our 2nd best player!"
Reyes has had a somewhat down year (significant drop in BB%, worse defense), but it's important to keep in mind he didn't play at all last year and that recently he has been on a tear. He may never be the 5-6 win player he was from 2006-2008 but he still hits above average, plays SS, and can steal 50 bases which should still put him at roughly a 3.5-4.5 win player, if he's healthy. With the recent injury to his oblique (again) and his seemingly always questionable hamstring, being healthy has become a pretty, pretty, pretty, big if. If health is the reasoning behind trying to see what you can get for Reyes, well maybe there is something to be said about looking to trade Reyes. This by no means you force yourself to trade him, but it doesn't hurt anyone (except Reyes' feelings) if you see what's out there. Reyes at $11m next year is a no brainer, but re-signing him to a lengthy costly deal isn't as easy of a decision. If someone is willing to give the Mets some legit pieces that are major league ready as well as top prospects, that's something the Mets would have to consider.
So, with that said who are some teams who would be interested in acquiring Reyes and what would they have to offer?
Braves- They have Alex Gonzalez at short (after likely regrettably trading Yunel Escobar because of a bad 3 months) and he has a club option for 2011 at $2.5m. I'm not sure Braves are willing to or can even add payroll but Reyes would certainly be an upgrade at SS and the Braves are a competitive team that will be eying the playoffs and possible championship in the upcoming years. If Chipper retires that would cancel out Reyes' salary, but Chipper has said he wants to keep playing. Plus, it'd be hard to see the Mets trade Reyes to a division rival like the Braves. However, the Braves are one of a few teams that has excellent prospects and pitching. Maybe a package like Mike Minor, Julio Tehran, and Alex Gonzalez would entice the Mets? They would get 2 excellent pitching prospects and a SS to replace Reyes next year.
Angels- They are always trying to win, love to run, and should reload next year with Morales coming back. Erick Aybar is a totally capable (if not better) SS but Reyes would likely be an upgrade. The Angels could offer Aybar and their best remaining pitching prospect Trevor Reckling to head a package for Reyes.
Red Sox- Marco Scutaro has been an adequate SS, but imagine a middle infield of Reyes and Pedroia? I guess there would be a lot of question marks regarding health, but Reyes would be incredibly exciting in Boston. I don't think the Red Sox would actually even engage in a conversation with the Mets but they do have some nice prospects, and maybe the team has grown tired of Ellsbury. Additionally, maybe the Mets could convince the Sox to take on Beltran, relieving themselves of some salary. In return maybe they get Ellsbury and a Ryan Kalish? An Of of Ellsbury Kalish Pagan could be interesting.
Yankees- I don't know that the Mets would ever do a deal with the Yankees of this magnitude, but you figure the Yankees are involved in any major deal. I have the slightest suspicion that Jeter decides to retire this year leaving a huge hole for the Yankees at SS. I'm not sure where Jesus Montero would play for the Yankees let alone the Mets, but if he was offered in the Cliff Lee deal, he'd have to be somewhat expendable, and maybe it intrigues the Mets.
Reds- The Reds have gotten some decent production at SS this year, but clearly not as much as a player of Reyes' caliber. Jay Bruce could be a nice buy low for the Mets, even if it involves trading Reyes. The Reds have a lot of young mlb-readyish arms and coupled with Bruce could head a decent package for Reyes.
Giants- Juan Uribe is actually not that bad, but again Jose Reyes is a top SS. I'm not sure the Giants would be willing to give up Bumgarner, but if they would be, that's something (paired with Uribe) that the Mets would have to consider.
Ok, so it was fun to see what teams could offer the Mets for Reyes but realistically I don't think Reyes will be moving teams. As a team trying to always compete (not necessarily the best decision for them right now, but that's just how it is) it'd be hard for the Mets rationalizing them being better off next year without him. However, if they don't want to resign him (even though it's rumored they would like to) I think they HAVE to trade him, it's as simple as that. One year of Reyes isn't better than any of the ideas mentioned above. Even if teams are weary about Reyes and won't offer as much as I said it's still a must. For instance, what's better for the Mets, Reyes in 2011 or Bumgarner for the next 4-5 years? What's better, Reyes in 2011 or Jay Bruce for the next few years? See what I'm getting at? Unless the Mets are willing to resign Reyes they have to consider trading him, and maybe to one of the teams I mentioned.
A Quick Look At The Standings
AL East- The Yankees and Rays are currently tied for the division lead with the best record in baseball. Both teams will make the playoffs and for a while I figured it would be a coin flip as to who will take the division, but now I'm starting to think that the Rays will, maybe even by a few games.
AL Central- The Twins have a 3.5 game lead on the White Sox and I really see no reason as to why they will relinquish their spot atop the division. The White Sox are a solid team and have had a pretty impressive year, but I don't think they're sniffing the postseason.
AL West- The Rangers have been in the lead for a long time now currently ahead by 8.5 games over the A's, nothing more to say really.
NL East- The Phillies just got swept by the friggin' Astros, yet they are still only 3 games back. The Braves could have done some real damage but they lost 3 in a row themselves. The Braves still have excellent pitching and I'll favor the team up 3 games this late in the season, but the Phillies could (and should) make it interesting.
NL Central- Ever since the "statement" series against the Reds, the Cardinals have been pretty blah, and are now 4 games back of the Reds. I still feel they are the better team like I said in the power rankings, but the Reds have to be the favorites at this point.
NL West- The Padres have a 6 game lead over the Giants, and yet it still seems like there is a division race, even though it's been about 6 games for a month now. This race is over, but the pesky Giants should be in the running for the wild card with the Cardinals and Phillies.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Under The Radar
The Hardball Times had a nice short little piece yesterday about baseball's secret star, Andres Torres. Jose Bautista and his homers have caught the attention of many, but Torres continues to perform under the radar. As The Hardball Times illustrates, dating back to his time last year in about one full season's worth of plate appearances, Torres has put up a 127 OPS+ with 29 stolen bases, all while playing a great CF. Even more, if you go to Fangraphs the only CF who has been more productive over the past two full seasons have been Josh Hamilton and Franklin Gutierrez, and they have had much more playing time than Torres!
What's the reason (or partial reason) for his sudden success after age 30?
Apparently the most intriguing backstory regarding Torres is that it wasn't until a few years ago that he was diagnosed with an attention-deficit disorder, and it was upon getting that affliction under control through medication that he's been able to channel his energy, and
his career has taken off.
I don't recall seeing Torres play until he came to the Giants, so I can't offer first-hand observation on a changed plate approach. But apparently that's also part of the story; in the past he was a slap hitter, but with his newfound strength Torres now takes a very full rip. He also exercises first-rate strike zone judgment, nicely working the count. All in all he is one extremely tough out.
They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks, but Andres Torres and Jose Bautista have had something to say about that this year. It really seems as though just a slight change in approach can really make all the difference in the world. Angel Pagan and Casey McGehee couldn't stay on the Cubs and now Pagan is a top outfielder and McGehee has 90 RBI playing 2b and 3b, Andres Torres couldn't stay on a roster and has become one of the best CF in the game, Jose Bautista couldn't cut it with the Pirates and he has 40 homers! These aren't really flukes either since there is evidence in their performances last year that point to success this year. So, that got me thinking, who are some other people flying under the radar this year that could gain more attention next year?
Cliff Pennington, SS, Oakland: Pennington has essentially been a league average hitter (99 wRC+) all year while playing great defense at SS (3.9 UZR), culminating in a top 5 overall shortstop. He's young (26) and with slight improvement could be getting the praise he deserves next year.
Luke Scott, OF/1B/DH, Baltimore: Scott has essentially been banging homers all year and nobody seems to be taking notice. In his career he's been above average defensively, and this year only 11 players have a higher wOBA than him. I didn't hear any rumors about him during the trading deadline and I'm not sure if that's because Baltimore knows what it has or because other teams are clueless. If it's because teams are clueless, it may take until next season for people to realize Scott is quite the hitter.
Jerry Hairston Jr., SS, San Diego: Hairston still can't hit, but this year his defensive numbers at SS have been off the charts good, 9.7 UZR which has lead him to 2.3 WAR. There is a reason the Padres are in first place, and it's obviously not all because of Hairston, but clearly he has been a big reason and I haven't heard much about it.
I wish I could predict guys to have breakouts like Bautista, Torres, McGehee, and Pagan but it's quite hard, and for good reason, if it was easy they wouldn't really be surprises! However, the guys above have been putting up good numbers all year and I suspect they will next year likely with more respect and attention. Maybe by September when some players will get a chance to show what they got for another month or so we'll be able to guesstimate some breakouts based on those small samples (i.e. Torres/Pagan 2009), but for now this will have to do.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Michael Jordan, Baseball Player
ESPN has recently run a documentary in their ESPN 30 for 30 series about Michael Jordan's time in baseball called "Jordan Rides the Bus". It has garnered a lot of attention for one, being good and two, going against the popular belief that Jordan left basketball because of a gambling problem. Rather than talk about the rumors of why he went to baseball, how it changed his legacy, and all that, let's take a look at his numbers:
Remember that's as a 31 year old playing in AA without having played baseball since high school, so in this case roughly at least 13 years. Now obviously the hitting is awful, Jordan didn't hit for average, didn't hit for power and struck out a good amount. However, there are some interesting things to consider:
BB%- 10.2%
BABIP- .264
SB- 30
For not having played baseball for at least 13 years, I find a 10.2 BB% to be quite outstanding. To have a patient approach like that after all that time off and never really playing competitive baseball is quite something. There are great players today in the MLB who can't even sniff a BB% that good. Also, although to really look into BABIP you need several seasons of data, it's interesting that Jordan's BABIP of .264 (below average) could mean that he was a little unlucky. Even though Jordan didn't have a great stealing success rate (62.5%) he still stole 30 bases as a 31 year old in less than 500 PA, that shows what kind of speed he had.
If Jordan decided to play baseball instead of basketball coming out of college, I think it's safe to say he'd have the pretty patient approach that he displayed combined with top speed which would likely make him (at least project him as) a great fielder at CF or RF. Also, Jordan was (and still is) essentially the most competitive athlete of all time, and always tried to improve his game. Although he only had 3 HR, at 6'6'' 205 pounds and by all accounts one of the best athletes ever, I think it's safe to say that he could and would develop power, become a better fielder, and hone is base stealing ability if given time given his competitive spirit.
Baseball is also a game where it could pay off to be selfish. In basketball you still have to share the ball and help your teammates. In Bill Simmons' great book on basketball, Simmon's mentions how in practice Jordan would occasionally try so hard he'd sometimes embarrass his teammates to their detriment. But like I said, in baseball that kind of attitude could pay off where you are essentially accountable to only yourself. For instance, Jordan dunking on Scottie Pippen 15 times in practice could get in Pippen's head, I don't see how Jordan hitting monster homeruns in batting practice would adversely affect the team. So, if Jordan was a 21 year old baseball prospect, I think it's safe to say he would project to be a potential 5-tool player along the likes of Grady Sizemore (when he was good), Justin Upton, or Matt Kemp. When you add in his determination and competitive spirit, I don't see any reason why you couldn't expect him to reach that potential, and knowing Jordan, likely even more.
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 127 | 497 | 436 | 46 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 30 | 18 | 51 | 114 | 0.202 | 0.289 | 0.266 | 0.556 |
Remember that's as a 31 year old playing in AA without having played baseball since high school, so in this case roughly at least 13 years. Now obviously the hitting is awful, Jordan didn't hit for average, didn't hit for power and struck out a good amount. However, there are some interesting things to consider:
BB%- 10.2%
BABIP- .264
SB- 30
For not having played baseball for at least 13 years, I find a 10.2 BB% to be quite outstanding. To have a patient approach like that after all that time off and never really playing competitive baseball is quite something. There are great players today in the MLB who can't even sniff a BB% that good. Also, although to really look into BABIP you need several seasons of data, it's interesting that Jordan's BABIP of .264 (below average) could mean that he was a little unlucky. Even though Jordan didn't have a great stealing success rate (62.5%) he still stole 30 bases as a 31 year old in less than 500 PA, that shows what kind of speed he had.
If Jordan decided to play baseball instead of basketball coming out of college, I think it's safe to say he'd have the pretty patient approach that he displayed combined with top speed which would likely make him (at least project him as) a great fielder at CF or RF. Also, Jordan was (and still is) essentially the most competitive athlete of all time, and always tried to improve his game. Although he only had 3 HR, at 6'6'' 205 pounds and by all accounts one of the best athletes ever, I think it's safe to say that he could and would develop power, become a better fielder, and hone is base stealing ability if given time given his competitive spirit.
Baseball is also a game where it could pay off to be selfish. In basketball you still have to share the ball and help your teammates. In Bill Simmons' great book on basketball, Simmon's mentions how in practice Jordan would occasionally try so hard he'd sometimes embarrass his teammates to their detriment. But like I said, in baseball that kind of attitude could pay off where you are essentially accountable to only yourself. For instance, Jordan dunking on Scottie Pippen 15 times in practice could get in Pippen's head, I don't see how Jordan hitting monster homeruns in batting practice would adversely affect the team. So, if Jordan was a 21 year old baseball prospect, I think it's safe to say he would project to be a potential 5-tool player along the likes of Grady Sizemore (when he was good), Justin Upton, or Matt Kemp. When you add in his determination and competitive spirit, I don't see any reason why you couldn't expect him to reach that potential, and knowing Jordan, likely even more.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Late To The Party On This But...
Much has been said on the net about Damien Cox's recent column that asks the question if Jose Bautista is using steroids? Bloggers everywhere are asking why Cox isn't getting the same backlash that Morris got in his piece last year that Raul Ibanez used steroids.
I don't really care about that however, it's not really surprising that sportswriters would bash bloggers and defend sportswriters, that's just par for the course. I'm more concerned with how Cox, in his short little piece, mentions how Toronto "has quietly become known as a bit of a nest for alleged steroid abusers over the years. Clemens played here. Gregg Zaun has been implicated. Ditto for Troy Glaus". I personally find it amusing that a "nest" for steroid use can be attributed to Clemens playing in Toronto in 1998, and two other players who were implicated of steroid use. And that because of those instances, Jose Bautista's homerun increase is likely caused by steroids. Meanwhile, Bautista is playing during drug testing. I would think whatever "steroid nest" the Blue Jays had has gone away since there have been 3 GMs, several different managers, and essentially a complete roster overhaul. That'd be like saying Vlad is using steroids in his comeback year on the Rangers because Arod, Palmeiro, and Juan Gone were using steroids there 8 years ago.
Baseball is prone to flukey seasons and Jose Bautista's success is likely due to a total change in his swing and some dumb luck, not because of steroids.
I don't really care about that however, it's not really surprising that sportswriters would bash bloggers and defend sportswriters, that's just par for the course. I'm more concerned with how Cox, in his short little piece, mentions how Toronto "has quietly become known as a bit of a nest for alleged steroid abusers over the years. Clemens played here. Gregg Zaun has been implicated. Ditto for Troy Glaus". I personally find it amusing that a "nest" for steroid use can be attributed to Clemens playing in Toronto in 1998, and two other players who were implicated of steroid use. And that because of those instances, Jose Bautista's homerun increase is likely caused by steroids. Meanwhile, Bautista is playing during drug testing. I would think whatever "steroid nest" the Blue Jays had has gone away since there have been 3 GMs, several different managers, and essentially a complete roster overhaul. That'd be like saying Vlad is using steroids in his comeback year on the Rangers because Arod, Palmeiro, and Juan Gone were using steroids there 8 years ago.
Baseball is prone to flukey seasons and Jose Bautista's success is likely due to a total change in his swing and some dumb luck, not because of steroids.
Manny Being Manny, On Another Team?
There has been much talk about Manny Ramirez recently; as seen here, here, here, here, and well I think you get the point. The expectation is that Manny will be placed on waivers, and the rumors are where he will be going. I find it interesting that the Dodgers are rumored to want to trade Manny to save money only weeks after giving up 2 quality pieces for an OK middle reliever, trading for Ted Lilly, and acquiring a glorified 4th OF in Scott Podsednik.
The teams linked to Ramirez include the Rays, Whitesox, Rangers, and of course, the Yankees. The Rays apparently put a claim in on Damon and have a DH spot, so clearly they are interested. The White Sox also have a history of reclamation projects with an astonishing amount of success too. Konerko was a busted prospect when Williams acquired him, as was Carlos Quentin. Alex Rios was picked up off waivers last year and has had a great rebound year. Juan Pierre was widely criticized this offseason and he's been good enough in the OF to have a positive value on the team. The Yankees are going to be linked to every move that just requires money but I don't think the pieces fit, and the Rangers don't have room for Manny Cruz and Vlad unless they want to risk Hamilton playing CF full time and one of Manny or Vlad playing the field. Baseball wise Manny makes the most sense for the Rays but since a good amount of money is involved ($3m+) I'm not sold they make the move. I feel he will stay in LA, but you never know with Kenny Williams, he may say "Fuck It" (literally on his TV show) and get Manny, in fact the more I think about it the more I believe it.
The teams linked to Ramirez include the Rays, Whitesox, Rangers, and of course, the Yankees. The Rays apparently put a claim in on Damon and have a DH spot, so clearly they are interested. The White Sox also have a history of reclamation projects with an astonishing amount of success too. Konerko was a busted prospect when Williams acquired him, as was Carlos Quentin. Alex Rios was picked up off waivers last year and has had a great rebound year. Juan Pierre was widely criticized this offseason and he's been good enough in the OF to have a positive value on the team. The Yankees are going to be linked to every move that just requires money but I don't think the pieces fit, and the Rangers don't have room for Manny Cruz and Vlad unless they want to risk Hamilton playing CF full time and one of Manny or Vlad playing the field. Baseball wise Manny makes the most sense for the Rays but since a good amount of money is involved ($3m+) I'm not sold they make the move. I feel he will stay in LA, but you never know with Kenny Williams, he may say "Fuck It" (literally on his TV show) and get Manny, in fact the more I think about it the more I believe it.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Yankees Roundtable
First we had the addition of weekly power rankings, now I am proud to introduce the newest addition to our blog, weekly Yankees Roundtable. Each week I'll propose a Yankees oriented question and Steven Glauber Jeff Winston and myself will answer. You should be familiar with Jeff from his previous work here last year, The State of the Yankees. Steven is another highly qualified author who's work can be found at Ampeater.
This weeks question was: What are your biggest worries about the Yankees?
Me: If I had to rank them I would do it as follows: 1) Starting pitching, 2) Age/health, 3) Catching. Sabathia is our only healthy starting pitcher that's doing well. Burnett and Vazquez simply just blow, and Hughes has a 4.71 ERA since June. If/when Andy gets back he's no guarantee to actually be effective, and in the other spots we are relying on Ivan Nova and Dustin Mosley. Health on the non-pitching side I'm worried about Arod, and age wise I'm worried about Jeter and Posada along with Arod continuing their declnies which ties into my last concern. Posada can't throw runners out and he's no lock to stay healthy. Cervelli as a fulltime catcher is scary for a team looking to win a championship. With all that said, the Yankees are still in first but the Rays are right there and it's safe to say my confidence for a repeat has dropped if not dramatically then at least a sizeable amount.
Jeff: First and biggest concern for the Yankees, like you Ben, is the starting pitching. Particularly the starting pitching situation for the Yankees as they hopefully enter October baseball. As you eluded to, what starter does any Yankees fan feel comfortable with on the mound outside of Sabathia? Burnett and Javy have been nothing short of horrible over the past month or so, but hopefully Pettitte comes back from injury soon enough. Still, even if Pettitte returns to form, do Yankees fans feel comfortable with CC, Pettitte and question marks? I only don't mention Hughes since I think he'll be in the bullpen for the playoffs (with the whole innings limit thing). I also feel worried about starting pitching for the future, not so much the Yankees ability to bring in that free agent, but their ability to develop young starting pitching. Hughes has been strong, but inconsistent of late, and Joba has been a complete mess, and has only amounted to a middle reliever. The Yankees system additionally lacks in that "young and upcoming" category that the Yankees had with Hughes/Joba/Kennedy a couple of years ago.
This weeks question was: What are your biggest worries about the Yankees?
Me: If I had to rank them I would do it as follows: 1) Starting pitching, 2) Age/health, 3) Catching. Sabathia is our only healthy starting pitcher that's doing well. Burnett and Vazquez simply just blow, and Hughes has a 4.71 ERA since June. If/when Andy gets back he's no guarantee to actually be effective, and in the other spots we are relying on Ivan Nova and Dustin Mosley. Health on the non-pitching side I'm worried about Arod, and age wise I'm worried about Jeter and Posada along with Arod continuing their declnies which ties into my last concern. Posada can't throw runners out and he's no lock to stay healthy. Cervelli as a fulltime catcher is scary for a team looking to win a championship. With all that said, the Yankees are still in first but the Rays are right there and it's safe to say my confidence for a repeat has dropped if not dramatically then at least a sizeable amount.
Jeff: First and biggest concern for the Yankees, like you Ben, is the starting pitching. Particularly the starting pitching situation for the Yankees as they hopefully enter October baseball. As you eluded to, what starter does any Yankees fan feel comfortable with on the mound outside of Sabathia? Burnett and Javy have been nothing short of horrible over the past month or so, but hopefully Pettitte comes back from injury soon enough. Still, even if Pettitte returns to form, do Yankees fans feel comfortable with CC, Pettitte and question marks? I only don't mention Hughes since I think he'll be in the bullpen for the playoffs (with the whole innings limit thing). I also feel worried about starting pitching for the future, not so much the Yankees ability to bring in that free agent, but their ability to develop young starting pitching. Hughes has been strong, but inconsistent of late, and Joba has been a complete mess, and has only amounted to a middle reliever. The Yankees system additionally lacks in that "young and upcoming" category that the Yankees had with Hughes/Joba/Kennedy a couple of years ago.
Another big concern of mine is the future of the organization now that Steinbrenner has passed. I realize that the organization is now being taken over by his two sons, but they have always had their father as a safety net to ensure the "win comes first" attitude. Whether the Steinbrenner sons will continue this attitude, or try and do their own thing with the organization will be seen in the coming years.
In response to your other two concerns, while age/health are a problem, the Yankees injuries this season have been minor compared to other teams (Red Sox), and the Yankees are even 12-0 this season when Alex Rodriguez isn't in the lineup. Players who eventually retire can also be replaced in free agency, via the Steinbrenner doctrine. And regarding the catching situation, I do hope/believe that Austin Romine is the Yankees' catcher of the future, as I think Montero will eventually DH or be traded for his value.
Steve: Like Ben and Jeff, I'm most concerned with starting pitching. Vazquez admitted that he's piled up a ton of innings on that arm and those 4 MPH on his fastball might just be gone for good. I thought the Yanks might just be dragging their feet with Pettitte 's injury so he could come back strong for the stretch run, but the recent setback is troubling. AJ Burnett starting against playoff opponents is horrifying. Maybe with some rainouts and bomb threats CC can go in every game.
I'm not concerned with the Yankees' Steinbrenner-less future at all. If anything, the Boss's passing gives Cashman--who has proven time and again to be a capable if not excellent GM--a little breathing room to operate on his own. I'm sure Hank and Hal will do their best to perpetuate the overblown win-at-all-costs manifesto the papers and fans love to shout out, but it's Cashman's team. He almost always targets the right players in trades and throws money at the right free agents. The farm system has been consistent enough over the last decade where I'm not too concerned with the well running dry.
What I am concerned with, and Ben hinted at it, is the money shituation with Arod. The Yanks are about to hand out some charity contacts to the living legends pretty soon. Mo and Jetes are class acts so their contracts should turn out relatively team-friendly, but the rules kinda go out the window when we're talking about these guys. Arod's contract is ridiculous. I think the team is due to pay him $40 mil in his age 52 season, or soemthing like that. Oh, and he also receives incentive bonuses (several millions) for each milestone he limps past and, presumably, every misguided relationship decision he makes (Madonna? oof). Whatever he does, he keeps the Yankees rolling in cash for years to come, so it's hard to argue the economical standpoint. Jeter and Mo will retire before it really hurts the team. But once those guys are out, Arod might start referring to himself as "The Core" in interviews.
I want to thank Jeff and Steve for helping out with the Yankees Roundtable. I hope you guys enjoy it and I look forward to contuing this with them on a weekly basis.
How To: BABIP
I have Eric Young Jr. on my fantasy team. I stashed him on my DL because I thought he could be a nice source of steals at a weak position (2nd base). I use ESPN for fantasy, and it looks like they use RotoWire for their player notes. Today Eric Young's note read:
Pitchers on average have a BABIP of .290 -.300. In general when looking at a pitcher's BABIP to see if he has been lucky or not it's safe to use ~.300 as a baseline. For instance Tim Hudson has a BABIP of .235, clearly he has been lucky, he should regress. Hitters however are different, they have their own unique BABIP, you can't just compare their's to a league average. So, Eric Young's BABIP is .327, but it's not puzzling like the note says, assuming his already lowish batting average will fall because of a flukey high BABIP. Take a look at EY Jr.'s BABIPs in the minors:
2006- .340
2007- .347
2008- .353
2009- .347
When you see those numbers, is Young's .327 BABIP still puzzling? For hitters you have to compare their BABIP to their career mark, and that in itself takes several years to even out. RotoWire made a mistake when they saw Young's .327 BABIP assuming it was too high, if anything it's actually low. One could expect Young to have a BABIP around .345 like his career in the minors suggests, so if anything the note should read as follows:
I love how sabermetrics has become more and more popular, but it's important that people use them correctly. Statistics like BABIP can be very helpful, especially in fantasy baseball, as a way of acquiring guys who can be expected to perform better as well as selling high on guys who can be expected to play worse, however if used wrong they could be very dangerous. An owner with little knowledge on BABIP may try to sell high on Young based on his note, when in reality he should be keeping on to him.
To conclude, use a BABIP ~.300 as a comparison point for pitchers, but for hitters make sure you use their own unique career number, otherwise you will likely be hurting yourself more than helping.
Young went 1-for-4 with a run and a stolen base in Sunday's win over the
Diamondbacks.Spin: Young is starting to come into his own as a base thief; he is
4-for-4 in base stealing attempts this month, and had just four stolen bases
prior to August. However, his .666 OPS is troublesome, as is the .327
BABIP.
Pitchers on average have a BABIP of .290 -.300. In general when looking at a pitcher's BABIP to see if he has been lucky or not it's safe to use ~.300 as a baseline. For instance Tim Hudson has a BABIP of .235, clearly he has been lucky, he should regress. Hitters however are different, they have their own unique BABIP, you can't just compare their's to a league average. So, Eric Young's BABIP is .327, but it's not puzzling like the note says, assuming his already lowish batting average will fall because of a flukey high BABIP. Take a look at EY Jr.'s BABIPs in the minors:
2006- .340
2007- .347
2008- .353
2009- .347
When you see those numbers, is Young's .327 BABIP still puzzling? For hitters you have to compare their BABIP to their career mark, and that in itself takes several years to even out. RotoWire made a mistake when they saw Young's .327 BABIP assuming it was too high, if anything it's actually low. One could expect Young to have a BABIP around .345 like his career in the minors suggests, so if anything the note should read as follows:
Spin: Young is starting to come into his own as a base
thief; he is 4-4 in base stealing attempts this month compared to just four
prior to August while he was hurt. Although his .666 OPS is troublesome,
his .327 BABIP is below his career norm. Owners can therefore expect Young
to hit at an average that won't hurt their team while raking in stolen bases at
a weak position (2nd base) as Young continues to hit a top the Rockies
lineup.
I love how sabermetrics has become more and more popular, but it's important that people use them correctly. Statistics like BABIP can be very helpful, especially in fantasy baseball, as a way of acquiring guys who can be expected to perform better as well as selling high on guys who can be expected to play worse, however if used wrong they could be very dangerous. An owner with little knowledge on BABIP may try to sell high on Young based on his note, when in reality he should be keeping on to him.
To conclude, use a BABIP ~.300 as a comparison point for pitchers, but for hitters make sure you use their own unique career number, otherwise you will likely be hurting yourself more than helping.
Monday Power Rankings
If you've ever read this blog before you would know it never really had a schedule, and when it did have a schedule I didn't quite adhere to it too well. Anyways, I think power rankings are a good way to start the week so I'll do that now.
1. Rays- They're still a game back of the Yankees in the division, but the Yankees just put Arod on the DL, Vazquez is throwing about 84 mph, Pettitte won't be back until at least mid-September, and Ivan Nova is making his first career start today. Meanwhile, the Rays have won 7 of the last 10 and are getting Wade Davis and Jeff Nieman back. They're doing so well in fact that they have the luxury of sending down Hellickson and his 3-0 2.05 ERA down to the minors to work on becomming a reliever for September and the postseason.
2. Yankees- Even with what I said above, the Yankees still have the best record in the league, and would need to go on an extended slump to fall below this spot.
3. Twins- They only have the 5th best record in baseball, but have the 3rd best in Varsity, have won 8 of the last 10, and 4 games this week. Joe Mauer won't win the MVP award again this year but he's playing like one recently. On July 24th, Mauer had a .295/.365./.435 line, since then he's gone .470/.557/.699 with 3 homers and 23 RBI in 23 games, of which the Twins have won 18.
4. Red Sox- Even with all the injuries, they are still 17 games above .500 in the toughest division in sports.
5. Padres- They've been good all year equally at home and away. They went 5-2 this week and when you look at how they finished last year, this shouldn't be as big a surprise as it seems. Juggling Mat Latos for the rest of the year and postseason may be difficult, but for now they're a comfortable 6 games up in the division.
6. Braves- They have the 3rd best ERA in baseball, the 4th best run differential, and just acquired Derek Lee. The Phillies have been good of late too, but the Braves have been atop all year and deserve this spot.
7. Rangers- They didn't have a great week but I just can't put 3 NL teams above them. Cliff Lee won't have another dud again.
8. Reds- I still think the Cardinals are a better team, but they've been kind of dece lately while the Reds have gone on a little roll, albeit against bad teams but still. It's the NL Central they can easily win it, but I'm still not sold.
9. Phillies- They've treaded water all year with injuries and now Rollins is starting to hit, Utley is back, Howard is back, and their 3 headed rotation is ready to take off. I still think the Braves hold on, but the Phillies should make it interesting.
10. Cardinals- This may be too high, but Garcia just pitched a shutout, Pujols has been on fire, and I just got a feeling they're better than they've played.
Best of the Rest
11. White Sox- How's Mark Kotsay doing, cause Jim Thome is kinda sick.
12. Blue Jays- Underratedly good, wanted to rank them higher but didn't have the balls.
13. Giants- Is Lincecum hurt? If so, why is he pitching?
14. Rockies- Down year but could re-load and win the division next year.
15. Marlins- Ricky Nolasco has a torn knee, and he's not going on the DL? Sounds 'fishy' to me!
16. A's- Great pitching all year, I can't name 3 hitters though.
17. Angels- Down year although has to be somewhat expected.
18. Dodgers- They're really going to regret giving up what they did for Dotel.
19. Tigers- Cabrera MVP if Tigers finish above .500?
20. Mets- Can't say they've been better or worse than expected, around .500 all year sounds right
21. Brewers- Is McGehee for real?
22. Astros- Finally started the rebuilding plan, it'll be a rough couple years but maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel, or Carlos Lee's blubber.
23. Nats- Pitcher and forearm injury are never a good sign, crossing fingers it's not serious
24. Cubs- Paid less than $2m of Lee's salary and got some promising pitchers back from the Braves, nice work.
25. Royals- Betancourt better than we thought?
26. Indians-Injuries on an already bad roster not a good sign, but they are young and could show signs of goodness next year.
27. Diamondbacks-Kelly Johnson great find, now who will overpay for him this offseason?
28. Orioles- Been great since Buck started managing, but still a rough year.
29. Mariners- Every year that they disappoint they have a surprising year, so look out for them in 2011 and in 2012 to be overrated.
30. Pirates- They are really bad, as usual. However Macdonald and Lambo was a sick brag for Dotel.
1. Rays- They're still a game back of the Yankees in the division, but the Yankees just put Arod on the DL, Vazquez is throwing about 84 mph, Pettitte won't be back until at least mid-September, and Ivan Nova is making his first career start today. Meanwhile, the Rays have won 7 of the last 10 and are getting Wade Davis and Jeff Nieman back. They're doing so well in fact that they have the luxury of sending down Hellickson and his 3-0 2.05 ERA down to the minors to work on becomming a reliever for September and the postseason.
2. Yankees- Even with what I said above, the Yankees still have the best record in the league, and would need to go on an extended slump to fall below this spot.
3. Twins- They only have the 5th best record in baseball, but have the 3rd best in Varsity, have won 8 of the last 10, and 4 games this week. Joe Mauer won't win the MVP award again this year but he's playing like one recently. On July 24th, Mauer had a .295/.365./.435 line, since then he's gone .470/.557/.699 with 3 homers and 23 RBI in 23 games, of which the Twins have won 18.
4. Red Sox- Even with all the injuries, they are still 17 games above .500 in the toughest division in sports.
5. Padres- They've been good all year equally at home and away. They went 5-2 this week and when you look at how they finished last year, this shouldn't be as big a surprise as it seems. Juggling Mat Latos for the rest of the year and postseason may be difficult, but for now they're a comfortable 6 games up in the division.
6. Braves- They have the 3rd best ERA in baseball, the 4th best run differential, and just acquired Derek Lee. The Phillies have been good of late too, but the Braves have been atop all year and deserve this spot.
7. Rangers- They didn't have a great week but I just can't put 3 NL teams above them. Cliff Lee won't have another dud again.
8. Reds- I still think the Cardinals are a better team, but they've been kind of dece lately while the Reds have gone on a little roll, albeit against bad teams but still. It's the NL Central they can easily win it, but I'm still not sold.
9. Phillies- They've treaded water all year with injuries and now Rollins is starting to hit, Utley is back, Howard is back, and their 3 headed rotation is ready to take off. I still think the Braves hold on, but the Phillies should make it interesting.
10. Cardinals- This may be too high, but Garcia just pitched a shutout, Pujols has been on fire, and I just got a feeling they're better than they've played.
Best of the Rest
11. White Sox- How's Mark Kotsay doing, cause Jim Thome is kinda sick.
12. Blue Jays- Underratedly good, wanted to rank them higher but didn't have the balls.
13. Giants- Is Lincecum hurt? If so, why is he pitching?
14. Rockies- Down year but could re-load and win the division next year.
15. Marlins- Ricky Nolasco has a torn knee, and he's not going on the DL? Sounds 'fishy' to me!
16. A's- Great pitching all year, I can't name 3 hitters though.
17. Angels- Down year although has to be somewhat expected.
18. Dodgers- They're really going to regret giving up what they did for Dotel.
19. Tigers- Cabrera MVP if Tigers finish above .500?
20. Mets- Can't say they've been better or worse than expected, around .500 all year sounds right
21. Brewers- Is McGehee for real?
22. Astros- Finally started the rebuilding plan, it'll be a rough couple years but maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel, or Carlos Lee's blubber.
23. Nats- Pitcher and forearm injury are never a good sign, crossing fingers it's not serious
24. Cubs- Paid less than $2m of Lee's salary and got some promising pitchers back from the Braves, nice work.
25. Royals- Betancourt better than we thought?
26. Indians-Injuries on an already bad roster not a good sign, but they are young and could show signs of goodness next year.
27. Diamondbacks-Kelly Johnson great find, now who will overpay for him this offseason?
28. Orioles- Been great since Buck started managing, but still a rough year.
29. Mariners- Every year that they disappoint they have a surprising year, so look out for them in 2011 and in 2012 to be overrated.
30. Pirates- They are really bad, as usual. However Macdonald and Lambo was a sick brag for Dotel.
I'm Saying This Now So I Can Brag About it Later
By now everyone realizes (I hope), especially with his recent trip to the DL, that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have had disappointing seasons. However, I don't think people have talked about it to the extent it will be mentioned after the season when everyone is previewing the 2011 season. I also don't think that people have fairly mentioned how bad (compared to what we normally expect) Arod has been this year. Obviously he is still a good, debatably great player (although not at his price) but really how good has he been this year and what can we expect for the future?
According to Fangraphs' WAR, Arod ranks 10th among 3rd basemen and it's not just cause of his fielding since he only ranks 8th among 3rd basemen just according to the batting component. Arod won't play in 150 games this year and hasn't since 2007. He'll turn 36 next year in July and is currently on the DL because of a strained calf and I have to think his hip is part of it to. Alex is walking 5% less than he did last year and has is lowest ISO since 1997. He also only has 4 SB with 3 CS which to no surprise has lead him to his lowest speed score to date. Although he has a higher contact % than he has ever had before, he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone which has lead to a higher GB% than usual.
If it weren't for his 97 RBI, I think people would be more concerned, and they really should be regardless of how Arod is doing in that flawed stat. What we have on our hands with Arod is a guy who is heading towards the wrong side of 30, is slower than ever before, more injured than ever before, hitting with less power than he has since he was 21, is taking less pitches and swinging at more bad pitches that's leading to more grounders. Ever since his 3 home run game a week or so ago and a little bit before, people expected Arod to have a monster month to get his numbers in line with last year, well I don't think that is going to happen this year, and I'm not sure it will ever happen again.
What Arod is now and in the near future is a 3b who will hit about 20% better than the average hitter but with it will come below average defense at 3b and a 10-20 games out of the lineup. That's fine, but it's not "Arod" and it's not worth the money he's getting paid. Most of the talk has been about Jeter's decline, but I think it's time we realize Arod is the bigger worry. Jeter at least plays the harder position and does it 150+ times a year. Even with his much documented decline from last year, Jeter is a top SS, the same can't be said about Arod at 3b.
So, as I stated in the headline for the post, I think come March people are going to realize Arod is the bigger concern, and when coupled with Jeter's down year, sportswriters and bloggers everywhere are going to pick the Yankees to finish 3rd in the division in 2011. They will point to the young Rays and how the Red Sox did with injuries as reasons both teams will out perform the Yankees. I'm not saying they will be right or wrong, I'm just saying everyone is going to love to be on the Yankees 3rd place 2011 bandwagon.
According to Fangraphs' WAR, Arod ranks 10th among 3rd basemen and it's not just cause of his fielding since he only ranks 8th among 3rd basemen just according to the batting component. Arod won't play in 150 games this year and hasn't since 2007. He'll turn 36 next year in July and is currently on the DL because of a strained calf and I have to think his hip is part of it to. Alex is walking 5% less than he did last year and has is lowest ISO since 1997. He also only has 4 SB with 3 CS which to no surprise has lead him to his lowest speed score to date. Although he has a higher contact % than he has ever had before, he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone which has lead to a higher GB% than usual.
If it weren't for his 97 RBI, I think people would be more concerned, and they really should be regardless of how Arod is doing in that flawed stat. What we have on our hands with Arod is a guy who is heading towards the wrong side of 30, is slower than ever before, more injured than ever before, hitting with less power than he has since he was 21, is taking less pitches and swinging at more bad pitches that's leading to more grounders. Ever since his 3 home run game a week or so ago and a little bit before, people expected Arod to have a monster month to get his numbers in line with last year, well I don't think that is going to happen this year, and I'm not sure it will ever happen again.
What Arod is now and in the near future is a 3b who will hit about 20% better than the average hitter but with it will come below average defense at 3b and a 10-20 games out of the lineup. That's fine, but it's not "Arod" and it's not worth the money he's getting paid. Most of the talk has been about Jeter's decline, but I think it's time we realize Arod is the bigger worry. Jeter at least plays the harder position and does it 150+ times a year. Even with his much documented decline from last year, Jeter is a top SS, the same can't be said about Arod at 3b.
So, as I stated in the headline for the post, I think come March people are going to realize Arod is the bigger concern, and when coupled with Jeter's down year, sportswriters and bloggers everywhere are going to pick the Yankees to finish 3rd in the division in 2011. They will point to the young Rays and how the Red Sox did with injuries as reasons both teams will out perform the Yankees. I'm not saying they will be right or wrong, I'm just saying everyone is going to love to be on the Yankees 3rd place 2011 bandwagon.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
I'm BAAAAAAAAACK
I'm sorry to all you loyal readers who over the past 11 months have been checking Bens Baseball Bias on your daily blog roll constantly saddened when you came across no updates. As you may or may not have known I was in Israel away from the baseball blogging world, but now that I am back and settled I will continue my normal obscene amount of posts for a blog that hardly gets read. Hope you enjoy!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)