Halladay Trade Likely?

Well I wouldn't say likely, but it's starting to pick up some steam, along with the Jake Peavy rumors.

MLBTradeRumors, had a piece today linking to articles talking about both, and they asked the question, which would you rather have? To me that seems fairly obvious, and the answer is Roy Halladay.

Jake Peavy is younger, he's going to be 28 this year while Halladay will turn 32. However, any team looking to get Peavy or Halladay want them for a small window where they can win, they are not trying to acquire an ace pitcher to help them rebuild. Therefore I feel the age difference doesn't really help Peavy. You could say since he's younger he may be more durable, but there lies Halladay's biggest strength. Peavy may give you a lower ERA, but in 190 innings and missing a couple starts. Halladay will give you his 3.5 ERA at worst over 230 innings.

The biggest case for Halladay however is context. He pitches in the AL, and in the AL East, and in a more or less neutral ball park. Jake Peavy pitches in the NL, the NL West, and in Petco. At this point Petco deflates hitting more than Coors inflates it. Last year Peavy had a 2.85 ERA and a 121 ERA+. Roy Halladay had a similar ERA in 2.78, but had a 154 ERA+. Same ERA, but when you count for park and league, Halladay is significantly better. Last year Halladay had a 3.71 ERA, looks good but not great right? Well his ERA+ was 120, virtually the same as Peavy last year when he had an ERA over a run lower.

So I made my case for Halladay and I think it's a pretty strong case. Halladay is owed $14.25m this year and $15.75m in 2010. Peavy is owed $8m this year, and has a 3 year $52m extension for 2010-2012. Both pitchers are basically bargains compared to what they would get on the market, and there is definitely an argument to be made that you should take the younger pitcher who is locked up longer, but I still feel Halladay is the better bet. If Joba doesn't work out in the rotation, are the Yankees going to want to see what Peavy is like outside of Petco, or do they want the guy that has dominated the AL East his entire career? I think you get my point.

Now, do I think either will get traded this year? I kinda think at least one gets traded. The Padres are terrible, and the Blue Jays aren't far behind. I think ticket sales could be worse than maybe teams have expected, or at least worse than what they are maybe telling. The Padres don't have a good farm so trading Peavy could help rebuild it. The Blue Jays actually have some nice young players coming up, and adding a few more with a Halladay trade gives them a chance to compete in the future, because they aren't going anywhere this year.

The Yankees got the Rangers to pay $80m of Arod's contract, could they get the BlueJays to pay some of Vernon Wells' and get him and Halladay in a trade? If Brett Gardner is batting .230 in May, Melky does worse since he's given the job, and a pitcher goes down why not? It's just money to the Yankees and they get a good CF and a great pitcher. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I'm just saying...