Monday, April 20, 2009

What's Wang with Wang?

Everyone has already kinda tackled this subject, and I'm definitely late to the party, but that headline was too good to pass up.

Chien-Ming Wang, is strictly a sinker ball pitcher, and he throws (or used to throw) hard. He still throws a hard sinker, but it's no longer in the mid 90s range, it is now in the low 90s. Every major leaguer can play the game, the differences between the good ones and the bad ones are pretty small, but have huge effects. The difference in just a couple MPH to Wang's sinker can make a previously great pitcher into a current ineffective one.

Wang had a foot injury last year, it seemed like he would make a full recovery because well, it wasn't his arm. I'm not saying Wang is hurt, because he says he feels fine. But isn't likely that his foot just isn't as strong as it once was? It could be perfectly stable and 100% healthy, but that doesn't make him just as strong as he was last year. That little difference could be the reason for a little difference in velocity which so far this year is making a big difference in his effectiveness.

The success rate for pitchers like Wang (no Ks) isn't good. Guys who strike out guys at the rate that Wang does, don't have long lasting careers. After Wang was a great pitcher for almost 4 years, it seemed as though he would go against the norm, but now we are starting to see why guys like him don't last long. As a groundball pitcher with a career 4.01 k/9, Wang lets a lot of balls in play. When he's going good, those balls aren't hit well, but just a slight decrease in his stuff, those balls begin to get hit a lot harder.

Wang's k/9 increased the last 3 years, but he never really changed his approach. Not that he should have necessarily because what he did was working. However, since he never pitched changing speeds, or fooling hitters with an out pitch, it should be no surprise that once his main pitch lost a little bite with age/injury, that he won't be the same pitcher.

Wang's ERA this year clearly won't remain at 34.5, but it likely won't be all that pretty. I don't think you will see Wang post an ERA under 4 from this point on, or maybe again in his career. He can still be an effective pitcher, he just has to learn how to get out hitters differently, at this point I don't see him learning that at the major league level. Unless of course he is lying, and he isn't 100% healthy. But if we take him at is word and these are the results, we shouldn't expect Wang to give us a different result next time he goes out, if he pitches in a similar fashion. Girardi can say all the bull shit he wants how his sinker was moving the best it has yet this time out, the point remains Wang's pitch selection throwing sinker after sinker aint workin'.

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