Steve Phillips was the GM of a team that went to the World Series. Steve Phillips acquired David Wright and Jose Reyes. Steve Phillips is an idiot.
During the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast on ESPN between the Mets and Giants tonight, the booth got to talking about Carlos Beltran. Steve Phillips said (and I'm paraphrasing) that Jose Reyes is a guy you build around and David Wright is a guy you build around. But when I look at Carlos Beltran and his $17m price tag you have to question if that's where you want to go in the future.
Wow, Wow Wow.
In 2005, Beltran's first year with the Mets he was a bust, no ifs ands or buts about that. Coming off likely the best performance in a playoff series ever, Beltran cashed in on the Mets. His first season with them had unrealistic expectations that noone could live up to, but regardless Beltran was still bad only putting up 1.9 WAR. However, since then Beltran's been one of the most productive players in all of baseball. From 2006-2008 Beltran was worth 7, 4.9. and 6.7 wins. And so far this year he's been worth 1.9, already. Even counting pitchers, Beltran is easily a top 20 player. Steve Phillips pointed to the strikeout against Wainwright in the 2006 NLCS, and a time Beltran didn't slide into home as evidence that Beltran isn't a "winning" ballplayer, and likely not worth his pricetag. Last year Beltran got paid $18.6m. What was he worth? Just a cool $30.1m.
It's incredible that a former General Manager can't appreciate the things Beltran does well, which is everything. Beltran hits for average, hits for power, and gets on base. He plays gold glove defense in center and is among the best baserunners in the entire game. However, Beltran doesn't bat .300 and he doesn't make diving plays in center, so it seems as though people overlook him (although you would still expect a GM to realize these things over an average fan, but I guess not) when talking about the games elite players. If Beltran had the same OBP but hit .300 instead of .280 and dove all over the field I bet everyone would take notice of what he does. Instead, people mistake the ease at which Beltran plays with him being indifferent to the outcome of the game.
If the Tigers, Indians, Rays, Pirates, or Dodgers play on Sunday Night Baseball this year I bet you will hear Phillips get a hard on for Granderson, Sizemore, Upton, McLouth, and Kemp. That won't necessarily be undeserved but Beltran is better than all of them yet he's the problem for the Mets? Idiot.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Barry Being Barry
So far it looks like Barry Zito is back baby!!!
This little bit of increase in velocity seems to be the reason for Zito's success. I'm not sure what "80 percent of what he was" necessarily means, but I'm going to take it to mean a good thing. Zito's contract will still haunt the Giants, but if he can sustain this velocity he can be a better than average pitcher, where before he was worse. One thing to note though were Zito's FIPs the last few years. In 2006 on the A's in his contract year Zito had a 3.83 ERA, so it's not so obscene for the Giants to think they were going to get a great pitcher especially when you consider his move to the NL. However, hi FIP that year was 4.89. In 2007 on the Giants he had a 4.53 ERA and his FIP actually improved to 4.82. Last year Zito's ERA rose even more to 5.15, and his FIP improved again to 4.72. So far this year his FIP is at a pretty nice 4.01, with a 3.57 ERA.
This year seems to be a correction between some bad luck that Zito has had before, and an increase in velocity, couple those together and Zito ain't half bad! Zito wasn't as good as he seemed when the Giants signed him, but he also hasn't been as bad as he seems for the Giants. Anyway you want to slice it the contract will go down in history as one of the worst ever, and even though Zito won't now compete for Cy Youngs he at least can be overpaid and help the Giants, instead of being overpaid to hurt the Giants.
Thanks to baseballthinkfactory for the heads up!
"Barry is back," a National League scout told FanHouse. "He's pretty close to what he was. I'd say he's 80 percent of what he was, at least. He's got his velocity back. He's not back to 2002, when he won the Cy Young, but he's a competitive, championship-level pitcher again." [...]I'm not sure if it's a mental thing or not, but Zito's velocity is definitely up this year. Before his last year on the A's, Zito's velocity was around 87. In 2006 it was 85.8, in 2007 on the Giants it was 84.5, and last year 84.9. This year? It's not going to dazzle you of course, but it's been 86.6. The softer you throw, the more it adversely effects you when you lose some of your velocity. It's obviously easier to sit on that curve with a nothing fastball.
Zito's fastball is now reaching 88 mph regularly, and he's consistently at 85-88. During those dark days early in his Giants tenure, he was pushing it up there at 80-85 mph, and "there were games he went out and pitched at 78," Righetti said. [...]
Righetti said the improved stuff has to do with physical conditioning and with the fact that he's thrown less between starts.[...]
Zito, as those who know him would expect, said the differences are all mental.
"When you have an aggressive nature and you are determined to do something, your body gets in position to throw a little harder, your arm gets in position to be a little looser," he said.
This little bit of increase in velocity seems to be the reason for Zito's success. I'm not sure what "80 percent of what he was" necessarily means, but I'm going to take it to mean a good thing. Zito's contract will still haunt the Giants, but if he can sustain this velocity he can be a better than average pitcher, where before he was worse. One thing to note though were Zito's FIPs the last few years. In 2006 on the A's in his contract year Zito had a 3.83 ERA, so it's not so obscene for the Giants to think they were going to get a great pitcher especially when you consider his move to the NL. However, hi FIP that year was 4.89. In 2007 on the Giants he had a 4.53 ERA and his FIP actually improved to 4.82. Last year Zito's ERA rose even more to 5.15, and his FIP improved again to 4.72. So far this year his FIP is at a pretty nice 4.01, with a 3.57 ERA.
This year seems to be a correction between some bad luck that Zito has had before, and an increase in velocity, couple those together and Zito ain't half bad! Zito wasn't as good as he seemed when the Giants signed him, but he also hasn't been as bad as he seems for the Giants. Anyway you want to slice it the contract will go down in history as one of the worst ever, and even though Zito won't now compete for Cy Youngs he at least can be overpaid and help the Giants, instead of being overpaid to hurt the Giants.
Thanks to baseballthinkfactory for the heads up!
Monday, May 11, 2009
Orioles Trades
Or possible ones that is.
MLBTradeRumors lists the potential trade candidates for the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles are obviously struggling this year, but that was expected. All things considered I think you have to call this season a success so far, if for no other reason than the fact that Adam Jones is becoming a star. Even though Felix Pie hasn't worked out (.233 wOBA, barf), it's not like they gave anything up to get him. Currently the Orioles actually have an above average lineup, it's pitching that they need. And pitching is on the way, but you can never have too much, and maybe some of these trade candidates can fetch something of use.
Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton have been pretty horrible (Wiggy especially) but a trade to the JV League to the Reds or Cubs to fill their 3b needs is certainly possible.
Two other trade candidates that I like are George Sherrill and Jeremy Guthrie:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles traded 5 of these guys, or traded one or none. This year doesn't matter so the difference between winning 5 more games when your 10 games under .500 is negligible. But, teams like to try to stay competitive (sometimes for the worse, Astros) and there has been talk of trying to bring up Wieters to a winning environment. Taking that literally would be quite stupid, the Orioles aren't going to be a winning franchise this year and Wieters is going to come up regardless, but don't expect the Orioles to field Markakis, Jones, Wieters, and 6 replacement level players in the 2nd half of the year. However, if they can shed some salary or trade one of their more usable players like Guthrie or Sherrill for a promising prospect I think it's a move they have to make.
The Orioles are going to be good soon, it's only a matter of time, and a good move at the deadline could make their future even brighter. Now, if the Blue Jays are more than a mirage this year and the Orioles continue to get better, is it going to be fair to let the AL Central and West have 2 playoff spots?
MLBTradeRumors lists the potential trade candidates for the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles are obviously struggling this year, but that was expected. All things considered I think you have to call this season a success so far, if for no other reason than the fact that Adam Jones is becoming a star. Even though Felix Pie hasn't worked out (.233 wOBA, barf), it's not like they gave anything up to get him. Currently the Orioles actually have an above average lineup, it's pitching that they need. And pitching is on the way, but you can never have too much, and maybe some of these trade candidates can fetch something of use.
Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton have been pretty horrible (Wiggy especially) but a trade to the JV League to the Reds or Cubs to fill their 3b needs is certainly possible.
Two other trade candidates that I like are George Sherrill and Jeremy Guthrie:
Jeremy Guthrie, SP - $650K this year, under team control through 2012. The O's are not in a position to trade away pitching, but Guthrie is already 30 years old. 3.5 years of Guthrie could be appealing on the trade market. Maybe he could be cashed in for multiple young players.Tim Dierkes hit it on the nose here. 2 pitchers that are both pretty good, cheap, and under team control. These wouldn't be one year rentals, and could fetch back more in a trade than the other players mentioned. In 2007 as a lefty specialist Sherrill had a 2.36 ERA, I don't think any team would acquire him to be their closer but take him out of the big boy leaugue and the AL East more specifically, then it's an interesting idea. Guthrie isn't going to wow you but he's been a reliable pitcher in that division the last two years, posting an ERA+ of 125 in 2007 and 2008.
George Sherrill, RP - $2.75MM this year, under team control through 2011. Sherrill is trying to hang on to the team's closer job. He may be best-served back in a lefty-specialist role. He's similar to Guthrie in that he's past 30 but under team control for a while.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles traded 5 of these guys, or traded one or none. This year doesn't matter so the difference between winning 5 more games when your 10 games under .500 is negligible. But, teams like to try to stay competitive (sometimes for the worse, Astros) and there has been talk of trying to bring up Wieters to a winning environment. Taking that literally would be quite stupid, the Orioles aren't going to be a winning franchise this year and Wieters is going to come up regardless, but don't expect the Orioles to field Markakis, Jones, Wieters, and 6 replacement level players in the 2nd half of the year. However, if they can shed some salary or trade one of their more usable players like Guthrie or Sherrill for a promising prospect I think it's a move they have to make.
The Orioles are going to be good soon, it's only a matter of time, and a good move at the deadline could make their future even brighter. Now, if the Blue Jays are more than a mirage this year and the Orioles continue to get better, is it going to be fair to let the AL Central and West have 2 playoff spots?
Saturday, May 9, 2009
The Problem With Prospects
I'm mystified with potential. When I play fantasy I often go too much for 'breakout' players and get burned. When I play baseball simulation games on the computer I always stockpile great young players. Obviously that doesn't always work out. The Angels had one of the greatest farm systems in baseball a few years ago and I decided to look back on that.
In Baseball America's top prospects for 2005, the Angels had Casey Kotchman #6, Dallas McPherson #12, Erik Aybar #39, Jeff Mathis #67, Kendrey Morales #76, Brandon Wood #83.
In Baseball America's top prospects for 2006, Brandon Wood moved to #3, Howie Kendrick #12, Erik Aybar #46, Jered Weaver #57, Jeff Mathis #60, Kendrey Morales #78, and Nick Adenhart #90 (R.I.P.).
If that worked out, how good would the Angels be right now. They would have a stud Kotchman (a young Todd Helton) at 1b, a constant .300+ 2b in Kendrick at 2b, a potential 40 hr guy in Wood at SS, a prime Troy Glaus in McPherson at 3b, a great hitting catcher in Mathis behind the plate, a solid OF in Morales, a great utility infielder/outfielder in Aybar, and some quality young pitching. They could have 3-4 allstars under $1m right now, of course if it worked out.
It obviously didn't work out as planned. Some of these players are obviously still good, but it's surprising that not one has become an allstar, or near an allstar really. The book isn't out on all these guys, but for some of them it is; Dallas McPhereson can't stay healthy, and Jeff Mathis has an OPS+ of 56! in 637 at bats, and unfortunately right when he looked like he was going to make it Adenhart suddenly passed. That's not to say that Kendrick and Aybar aren't good players, or that Weaver is like his brother, but you would think with ALL that talent that just one, one player would be a knockout. That's the problem with potential, it's just that, potential.
Still, it's interesting to wonder what the Angels would look like if those players were more successful. They've been one of the better franchises the last few years without those players breaking out, imagine how dominant they would be if it was the other way around? You could think of it like the Red Sox team now. Kendrick could be Dustin Pedroia, McPherson could be Youklis, and they still would have a 40 hr SS on top of that, not to mention several other players. If the Angels roster now had Pedroia, Youklis, and an allstar short stop, would any team stand a chance?
A lot of people wish teams like the Yankees did things differently, that they rebuild their team with young players. Well it's not that easy, it doesn't just happen. Not that relying on guys 35 and older is a good idea, but the Rays needed a decade's worth of top picks and only now is it starting to show. And the Angels ridiculous amount of young talent hasn't worked out like planned. A great team can do both (spend money on free agents and build within), and that's what the Angels have done, and what the Red Sox currently do, but potential is nothing you can rely on.
In Baseball America's top prospects for 2005, the Angels had Casey Kotchman #6, Dallas McPherson #12, Erik Aybar #39, Jeff Mathis #67, Kendrey Morales #76, Brandon Wood #83.
In Baseball America's top prospects for 2006, Brandon Wood moved to #3, Howie Kendrick #12, Erik Aybar #46, Jered Weaver #57, Jeff Mathis #60, Kendrey Morales #78, and Nick Adenhart #90 (R.I.P.).
If that worked out, how good would the Angels be right now. They would have a stud Kotchman (a young Todd Helton) at 1b, a constant .300+ 2b in Kendrick at 2b, a potential 40 hr guy in Wood at SS, a prime Troy Glaus in McPherson at 3b, a great hitting catcher in Mathis behind the plate, a solid OF in Morales, a great utility infielder/outfielder in Aybar, and some quality young pitching. They could have 3-4 allstars under $1m right now, of course if it worked out.
It obviously didn't work out as planned. Some of these players are obviously still good, but it's surprising that not one has become an allstar, or near an allstar really. The book isn't out on all these guys, but for some of them it is; Dallas McPhereson can't stay healthy, and Jeff Mathis has an OPS+ of 56! in 637 at bats, and unfortunately right when he looked like he was going to make it Adenhart suddenly passed. That's not to say that Kendrick and Aybar aren't good players, or that Weaver is like his brother, but you would think with ALL that talent that just one, one player would be a knockout. That's the problem with potential, it's just that, potential.
Still, it's interesting to wonder what the Angels would look like if those players were more successful. They've been one of the better franchises the last few years without those players breaking out, imagine how dominant they would be if it was the other way around? You could think of it like the Red Sox team now. Kendrick could be Dustin Pedroia, McPherson could be Youklis, and they still would have a 40 hr SS on top of that, not to mention several other players. If the Angels roster now had Pedroia, Youklis, and an allstar short stop, would any team stand a chance?
A lot of people wish teams like the Yankees did things differently, that they rebuild their team with young players. Well it's not that easy, it doesn't just happen. Not that relying on guys 35 and older is a good idea, but the Rays needed a decade's worth of top picks and only now is it starting to show. And the Angels ridiculous amount of young talent hasn't worked out like planned. A great team can do both (spend money on free agents and build within), and that's what the Angels have done, and what the Red Sox currently do, but potential is nothing you can rely on.
Why Not Have Another Nationals Post
Anyone see what Stephen Strasburg did last night? Strasburg, the presumed first pick in this years draft, has no hit stuff, and yesterday he took that pretty literally by pitching a no hitter.
He walked two, and struck out 17, without giving a hit. That's a pretty good line.
I don't know much about the amateur draft, but I can't imagine there is a player other than Strasburg that is worth taking with the first overall pick. Even when you factor in the huge difference in cost. Pitchers are incredibly risky, but this has to be worth the risk no? When the Twins passed up on Mark Prior they had Joe Mauer to draft. I haven't heard about any Joe Mauer's in this years draft. That's not to say the Nationals should draft Strasburg because that's what everyone says they should do, but it does seem to be the correct move.
The Nationals have 2 top 10 picks in the draft. At the major league level they have no pitching and to my knowledge neither does their farm system. Their lineup isn't all that terrible though, and if Dunn doesn't collapse and Dukes and Zimmerman keep up their good work they have some nice pieces there. One good draft can really change things. Assuming they draft Strasburg with the first pick and another pitcher with the 10th, if those pitchers work out (which is an incredibly huge if) combined with Jordan Zimmermann, that's not a bad 1-3. And like I said the lineup isn't all that bad. It's not to say that you can start penciling in the Nats as playoff hopefuls any time soon, but the franchise formally known as the Expos finally may not be so laughable, especially if they can begin to forget about this guy.
He walked two, and struck out 17, without giving a hit. That's a pretty good line.
For the season, Strasburg is 11-0 with a 1.24 ERA. He's struck out 164 against just 17 walks in 87 1/3 innings while yielding just 48 hits. He's reached double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 12 starts, and he's never walked more than two in one outing.Those numbers are just silly. That's a .74 whip. That's a k/bb of 9.65! Yea, you have to take college stats with a grain of salt, but Holy Shnikies!
I don't know much about the amateur draft, but I can't imagine there is a player other than Strasburg that is worth taking with the first overall pick. Even when you factor in the huge difference in cost. Pitchers are incredibly risky, but this has to be worth the risk no? When the Twins passed up on Mark Prior they had Joe Mauer to draft. I haven't heard about any Joe Mauer's in this years draft. That's not to say the Nationals should draft Strasburg because that's what everyone says they should do, but it does seem to be the correct move.
The Nationals have 2 top 10 picks in the draft. At the major league level they have no pitching and to my knowledge neither does their farm system. Their lineup isn't all that terrible though, and if Dunn doesn't collapse and Dukes and Zimmerman keep up their good work they have some nice pieces there. One good draft can really change things. Assuming they draft Strasburg with the first pick and another pitcher with the 10th, if those pitchers work out (which is an incredibly huge if) combined with Jordan Zimmermann, that's not a bad 1-3. And like I said the lineup isn't all that bad. It's not to say that you can start penciling in the Nats as playoff hopefuls any time soon, but the franchise formally known as the Expos finally may not be so laughable, especially if they can begin to forget about this guy.
26 Game Hit Streak
In his first at bat last night, Ryan Zimmerman extended his hit streak to 26 games.
Impressive stuff. I never really care about hitting streaks until they reach 30 games, but this one seems to be more intriguing. Ryan Zimmerman had a great rookie season and since then he has struggled a bit to improve on that. Seeing this 26 game hit streak (as flukey of a thing that it may be) might have the making of a good young player turning into a great young player, which for me is a little more notable than watching Luis Castillo bloop and bunt his way to his.
Zimmerman played on the same AAU team as David Wright (and BJ Upton), so he's forever linked with his divisional rival. When defense is considered part of the equation Zimmerman can hold his own against Wright, but so far Wright has been the better player. I won't say Zimmerman has become a better overall player than Wright after a 26 game hit streak, but you certainly have to entertain the possibility that these players are getting very close. Wright's first 2 full seasons he was worth 5.8 and 4.6 WAR, but then he really came out and put up 8.4 and 7.4 WAR seasons the last two years. In Zimms first seasons he was right inline with Wright with 4.1 and 5.1 WAR, but last year he took a step backwards with 2.2 WAR.
And this year? Zimmerman has already put up 1.7 WAR, and just for shits and gigs Wright is at 0.7. It's still worth noting that Zimmerman's wOBA in his possible 'break out' season is currently .405, while Wright's career wOBA is .395, so he still has a ways to go, but this is a good start.
If the Nationals want to have any chance to compete (in the future), Zimmerman is going to have to earn the extension they gave him and then some. A lot of other things need to happen (getting something out of Millege and/or Dukes, having something that resembles a pitching rotation and a bullpen), but it starts with Zimmerman, and so far he's done that.
Impressive stuff. I never really care about hitting streaks until they reach 30 games, but this one seems to be more intriguing. Ryan Zimmerman had a great rookie season and since then he has struggled a bit to improve on that. Seeing this 26 game hit streak (as flukey of a thing that it may be) might have the making of a good young player turning into a great young player, which for me is a little more notable than watching Luis Castillo bloop and bunt his way to his.
Zimmerman played on the same AAU team as David Wright (and BJ Upton), so he's forever linked with his divisional rival. When defense is considered part of the equation Zimmerman can hold his own against Wright, but so far Wright has been the better player. I won't say Zimmerman has become a better overall player than Wright after a 26 game hit streak, but you certainly have to entertain the possibility that these players are getting very close. Wright's first 2 full seasons he was worth 5.8 and 4.6 WAR, but then he really came out and put up 8.4 and 7.4 WAR seasons the last two years. In Zimms first seasons he was right inline with Wright with 4.1 and 5.1 WAR, but last year he took a step backwards with 2.2 WAR.
And this year? Zimmerman has already put up 1.7 WAR, and just for shits and gigs Wright is at 0.7. It's still worth noting that Zimmerman's wOBA in his possible 'break out' season is currently .405, while Wright's career wOBA is .395, so he still has a ways to go, but this is a good start.
If the Nationals want to have any chance to compete (in the future), Zimmerman is going to have to earn the extension they gave him and then some. A lot of other things need to happen (getting something out of Millege and/or Dukes, having something that resembles a pitching rotation and a bullpen), but it starts with Zimmerman, and so far he's done that.
Friday, May 8, 2009
I May Have Forgotten Someone...
In March Buster Olney gave his top 10 most indispensable players and I responded with my list, not that he or anyone else would actually see my response, but I did it. We didn't agree on everyone, and there is one person in particular who Buster had on that I left off which really makes me look foolish now. Buster even now has a full article on him in ESPN the Magazine, and that player is Evan Longoria.
Olney only had him 10th, but I left him off my list completely and this is what I had to say:
"The Rays didn't have Longoria to start the year, and missed him during other parts of the regular season and they still went to the World Series. Again, he's a great player but he's not indispensable, that's not an insult to Longoria it's a compliment to the Rays."
How stupid does that sound now? Very stupid, very very stupid. That was a pretty shortsighted move on my part. I mean I had a point, or at least I think I had a point. My reasoning was that the Rays still were a great team, that even without Longoria they were good. Obviously I was wrong now, and was likely wrong then, I mean just look at what he did while he was missing time:
Baseball's most indispensable and baseball's best are two different lists, but Evan Longoria has to be on the top 10 of each. He's David Wright with the power that you wish Wright had, and the fielding that everyone thinks Wright has. It's only the first week of May and Longoria already has been worth 2.5 wins. Longoria was a great player the minute he stepped on the field, and he's only getting better. You can name a few players better than Longoria, but seriously I dare you to name 10. Really, go on and try.
Pujols, Utley, Hanley, Johan, Mauer...yea I can't think of any others either, and even those are arguable, very arguable.
Olney only had him 10th, but I left him off my list completely and this is what I had to say:
"The Rays didn't have Longoria to start the year, and missed him during other parts of the regular season and they still went to the World Series. Again, he's a great player but he's not indispensable, that's not an insult to Longoria it's a compliment to the Rays."
How stupid does that sound now? Very stupid, very very stupid. That was a pretty shortsighted move on my part. I mean I had a point, or at least I think I had a point. My reasoning was that the Rays still were a great team, that even without Longoria they were good. Obviously I was wrong now, and was likely wrong then, I mean just look at what he did while he was missing time:
Last August he got hit by a pitch, broke his right wrist and was on the disabled list for a month while his teammates tried to hold on in the AL East. Ravizza was watching the Rays on TV and caught a shot of Longoria in the dugout pulling his batting gloves out of his pocket. Later, Ravizza called with a question: "Were you mentally preparing for your at-bats?" Longoria told him yes, that each time his replacement came up, he would put on his gloves and visualize the entire at-bat, pitch by pitch. And when the AB was over, he'd take off the gloves.Wow.
Baseball's most indispensable and baseball's best are two different lists, but Evan Longoria has to be on the top 10 of each. He's David Wright with the power that you wish Wright had, and the fielding that everyone thinks Wright has. It's only the first week of May and Longoria already has been worth 2.5 wins. Longoria was a great player the minute he stepped on the field, and he's only getting better. You can name a few players better than Longoria, but seriously I dare you to name 10. Really, go on and try.
Pujols, Utley, Hanley, Johan, Mauer...yea I can't think of any others either, and even those are arguable, very arguable.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Obligatory Manny Post
This just happened and yet I'm sure anyone who wants to know already knows, so this won't be news to anyone but Manny has been suspended 50 games for failing a drug test.
Apparently Manny says that he got a prescription from a doctor that wasn't a steroid, but it was banned under baseball's drug policy. Manny is going to lose 1/3 of his salary because he was too lazy to check to see if he could take the drug? You would think a doctor would know to recommend that Manny check to see if he's allowed to take the drug. You would also think Manny would know to check if he's allowed to take the drug. I'm not saying that what Manny said happened isn't what actually happened, but this is taking 'Manny being Manny' to another level.
Nobody ever suspected Manny of using steroids, he's always been a pretty big guy and he has destroyed pitching with remarkable consistency for his entire career. But everyone also assumed Arod would finally return the home run mantle back to clean hands. I don't think Manny is a steroid user and trying to cheat the game but I also know not to be surprised by any of this anymore. When it's time for Manny to get his book, I'm not going to be shocked by any accusations they have, but let's just hope that the author is not Selena Roberts. This book even already has a title, Manny Becoming Manny: A Goofball's Journey in Baseball, expect it on book shelves in 2010, or at least on Amazon if book stores still exist then.
UPDATE: It wasn't a steroid or HGH, but it was an enhancer, a sexual enhancer. I said I'm not surprised by this stuff anymore, and I'm REALLY not surprised to find out Manny would see a doctor about sexual enhancement. Isn't it reassuring though? Not that Manny's record is likely clean, but that sometimes the guys who can hit homers can't do everything better than us; that us non athletes can excel in some important areas that trouble some athletes. The Manny Becoming Manny book is increasingly becoming more interesting isn't it? I think we're going to find out that the reason Manny was dogging it with the Sox last year was because he hit a lull in his sex life. When he got to the Dodgers he got his act together in the sack, and that carried over on the field. With news that Arod may be back on Friday, I urge him to start getting it on, he is single now.
UPDATE: Why do I take these guys at their word when reporting this thing, cause now they are saying he took a fertility drug. Anytime people are taking drugs for woman, or old men, or horses, you know it can't be good.
I'm often a cynic, but the optimist in me is quoted right above as saying I don't think Manny took a steroid. I'm not upset or dumbfounded with this new news (if it's correct) that Manny likely did use a steroid (or steroid related substance), but I clearly was wrong in my assumption. It seemed so perfect that Manny would use sexual enhancement, right? I guess that funny chapter 11 about his suspension in Manny Becoming Manny is now more of a tragic story having him pick up the pieces of his career. Scott Boras should have some experience dealing with steroid users, is Gammons going to interview Manny now? Is Manny going to forget how to speak English? Was it really just B12?
We still obviously don't know much and I'm jumping the gun a little bit here but in time we'll have a better idea of what went down. Still, as of now it's not looking too great in Mannywood.
Apparently Manny says that he got a prescription from a doctor that wasn't a steroid, but it was banned under baseball's drug policy. Manny is going to lose 1/3 of his salary because he was too lazy to check to see if he could take the drug? You would think a doctor would know to recommend that Manny check to see if he's allowed to take the drug. You would also think Manny would know to check if he's allowed to take the drug. I'm not saying that what Manny said happened isn't what actually happened, but this is taking 'Manny being Manny' to another level.
Nobody ever suspected Manny of using steroids, he's always been a pretty big guy and he has destroyed pitching with remarkable consistency for his entire career. But everyone also assumed Arod would finally return the home run mantle back to clean hands. I don't think Manny is a steroid user and trying to cheat the game but I also know not to be surprised by any of this anymore. When it's time for Manny to get his book, I'm not going to be shocked by any accusations they have, but let's just hope that the author is not Selena Roberts. This book even already has a title, Manny Becoming Manny: A Goofball's Journey in Baseball, expect it on book shelves in 2010, or at least on Amazon if book stores still exist then.
UPDATE: It wasn't a steroid or HGH, but it was an enhancer, a sexual enhancer. I said I'm not surprised by this stuff anymore, and I'm REALLY not surprised to find out Manny would see a doctor about sexual enhancement. Isn't it reassuring though? Not that Manny's record is likely clean, but that sometimes the guys who can hit homers can't do everything better than us; that us non athletes can excel in some important areas that trouble some athletes. The Manny Becoming Manny book is increasingly becoming more interesting isn't it? I think we're going to find out that the reason Manny was dogging it with the Sox last year was because he hit a lull in his sex life. When he got to the Dodgers he got his act together in the sack, and that carried over on the field. With news that Arod may be back on Friday, I urge him to start getting it on, he is single now.
UPDATE: Why do I take these guys at their word when reporting this thing, cause now they are saying he took a fertility drug. Anytime people are taking drugs for woman, or old men, or horses, you know it can't be good.
HCG -- human chorionic gonadotropin. HCG is a women's fertility drug typically used by steroid users to restart their body's natural testosterone production as they come off a steroid cycle. It is similar to Clomid, the drug Bonds, Giambi and others used as clients of BALCO.
A source with intimate knowledge of steroids told ESPN that a male athlete usually uses HCG after a cycle of steroids because steroids often shut down the testosterone-making ability of the testicles. HCG restores their capacity to make testosterone. The source said that some males may use HCG in lieu of steroids also. HCG by itself can provide a substantial boost in the body's own testosterone, and this may provide some performance-enhancement benefits.
I'm often a cynic, but the optimist in me is quoted right above as saying I don't think Manny took a steroid. I'm not upset or dumbfounded with this new news (if it's correct) that Manny likely did use a steroid (or steroid related substance), but I clearly was wrong in my assumption. It seemed so perfect that Manny would use sexual enhancement, right? I guess that funny chapter 11 about his suspension in Manny Becoming Manny is now more of a tragic story having him pick up the pieces of his career. Scott Boras should have some experience dealing with steroid users, is Gammons going to interview Manny now? Is Manny going to forget how to speak English? Was it really just B12?
We still obviously don't know much and I'm jumping the gun a little bit here but in time we'll have a better idea of what went down. Still, as of now it's not looking too great in Mannywood.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Proctor, Seeing a Doctor
Scott Proctor is making that scary trek to Alabama to meet with Dr. James Andrews and my only question is why did it take this long?
Proctor was traded to the Yankees along with Bubba Crosby for Robin Ventura in 2003. In 2004 he pitched poorly in 25 innings, in 2005 he pitched poorly in 44.2 innings, and in 2006 he actually pitched quite well, in get this a very Torre-esque 102.1 innings! In 2007, he pitched 54.1 innings for the Yankees with a deceiving 3.81 ERA (1.51 whip, 5.30 FIP) before being traded to the Dodgers. Proctor got away from Torre where he could finally rest his arm, or did he? Torre signed with the Dodgers in 2008, and years of overuse of a bad reliever showed, as he had a 6.05 ERA in 38.2 innings. Then he had shoulder surgery, and now it hasn't heeled and he's seeing Dr. Andrews, never a good thing.
Scott Proctor had one good year, and Torre overused him, business as usual. In 2002 Steve Karsay threw 88.1 innings with a 3.26 ERA. He got hurt the next year and since 2002 he's only thrown 37.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA. In the first half of2004 Paul Quantrill threw 56 innings witha 3.05 ERA, in the 2nd half he threw 39.1 innings with a 7.09 ERA, he pitched poorly for 3 teams in 2005, and hasn't seen the majors since.
It's safe to say Scott Proctor won't be seeing the majors any time soon, following the path Torre lays out for his relievers like Karsay and Quantrill. I mean this stuff is legendary, there is even a blog named after him. I liked Proctor, he wasn't all that good but he took the ball whenever he was called upon, I'm sure he pitched through a lot of pain for the benefit of the team, but alas now he's paid the price, I wish him well on whatever he does next, because the history of these post-Torre abused players doesn't look promising.
It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in LA. If I was Cory Wade I would watch out, Kuo has alraedy gone on the DL, you are next.
Proctor was traded to the Yankees along with Bubba Crosby for Robin Ventura in 2003. In 2004 he pitched poorly in 25 innings, in 2005 he pitched poorly in 44.2 innings, and in 2006 he actually pitched quite well, in get this a very Torre-esque 102.1 innings! In 2007, he pitched 54.1 innings for the Yankees with a deceiving 3.81 ERA (1.51 whip, 5.30 FIP) before being traded to the Dodgers. Proctor got away from Torre where he could finally rest his arm, or did he? Torre signed with the Dodgers in 2008, and years of overuse of a bad reliever showed, as he had a 6.05 ERA in 38.2 innings. Then he had shoulder surgery, and now it hasn't heeled and he's seeing Dr. Andrews, never a good thing.
Scott Proctor had one good year, and Torre overused him, business as usual. In 2002 Steve Karsay threw 88.1 innings with a 3.26 ERA. He got hurt the next year and since 2002 he's only thrown 37.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA. In the first half of2004 Paul Quantrill threw 56 innings witha 3.05 ERA, in the 2nd half he threw 39.1 innings with a 7.09 ERA, he pitched poorly for 3 teams in 2005, and hasn't seen the majors since.
It's safe to say Scott Proctor won't be seeing the majors any time soon, following the path Torre lays out for his relievers like Karsay and Quantrill. I mean this stuff is legendary, there is even a blog named after him. I liked Proctor, he wasn't all that good but he took the ball whenever he was called upon, I'm sure he pitched through a lot of pain for the benefit of the team, but alas now he's paid the price, I wish him well on whatever he does next, because the history of these post-Torre abused players doesn't look promising.
It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in LA. If I was Cory Wade I would watch out, Kuo has alraedy gone on the DL, you are next.
These Games Count Just As Much, But It Still Is May
I was going to start off by quoting something Suzyn Waldman said on the radio yesterday, but making fun of her is too easy.
So I'll make fun of some guy I met walking to my car from the train today. I wear a hat everyday, and for a while now the one most worn in my collection has been this disgusting Yankees hat. It's disgusting because how dirty it looks not because it is simply a Yankees hat, it's no longer navy blue, and looks like I spilled gasoline all over it. Anyways, since I wear it regularly I get a pretty good amount of Yankee chatter from Dads as we walk to our cars. Sometimes it's nice, like when Melky hit the game winning homer, a Dad informed me. Sometimes it's kind of annoying, like today.
So as usual this dad starts up a mini Yankee convo, I'm wearing a Yankee hat, I must be a Yankee fan, that assumption was correct. He's wrong to assume I share his plight in how the team is doing. He goes on to tell me that there is no way the Yankees can get into the playoffs, that they will be completely out of it by August. He says he would rather the Yankees be 2-30 right now to save the heartache. Then we parted ways before I could say my $0.02 and he drove home in his 100k Mercedes convertible. I assume this gentleman makes a nice living, either that or he spends a significant portion of his salary stupidly on a car that he drives 7 miles to the train station. So I'll also assume he has some sort of intelligence, but those comments are just stupid, something Skip Bayless would say, in fact I bet they drive the same car.
The Yankees are 13-13, 4.5 games back in the division. I hate when people say we'll play better when it matters when these games matter just as much as a game in September. However, it still is only May. The Yankees were 14-15 in April last year and won 89 games, 9-14 in April in 2008 and won 94 games, 13-10 in April in 2006 and won 97 games, 10-14 in April in 2005 and won 95 games, get my point? I'm not saying the Yankees are a lock to win 95 games, or even 90 but it's still May, and yet smart people are saying the Yankees will be out of it by August. The Yankees sure don't look all that great, but they are still in a fine position to make their yearly postseason run, even Suzyn Waldman would agree.
So I'll make fun of some guy I met walking to my car from the train today. I wear a hat everyday, and for a while now the one most worn in my collection has been this disgusting Yankees hat. It's disgusting because how dirty it looks not because it is simply a Yankees hat, it's no longer navy blue, and looks like I spilled gasoline all over it. Anyways, since I wear it regularly I get a pretty good amount of Yankee chatter from Dads as we walk to our cars. Sometimes it's nice, like when Melky hit the game winning homer, a Dad informed me. Sometimes it's kind of annoying, like today.
So as usual this dad starts up a mini Yankee convo, I'm wearing a Yankee hat, I must be a Yankee fan, that assumption was correct. He's wrong to assume I share his plight in how the team is doing. He goes on to tell me that there is no way the Yankees can get into the playoffs, that they will be completely out of it by August. He says he would rather the Yankees be 2-30 right now to save the heartache. Then we parted ways before I could say my $0.02 and he drove home in his 100k Mercedes convertible. I assume this gentleman makes a nice living, either that or he spends a significant portion of his salary stupidly on a car that he drives 7 miles to the train station. So I'll also assume he has some sort of intelligence, but those comments are just stupid, something Skip Bayless would say, in fact I bet they drive the same car.
The Yankees are 13-13, 4.5 games back in the division. I hate when people say we'll play better when it matters when these games matter just as much as a game in September. However, it still is only May. The Yankees were 14-15 in April last year and won 89 games, 9-14 in April in 2008 and won 94 games, 13-10 in April in 2006 and won 97 games, 10-14 in April in 2005 and won 95 games, get my point? I'm not saying the Yankees are a lock to win 95 games, or even 90 but it's still May, and yet smart people are saying the Yankees will be out of it by August. The Yankees sure don't look all that great, but they are still in a fine position to make their yearly postseason run, even Suzyn Waldman would agree.
Zack Attack
Zack Greinke has been amazing. You can't help but find people gushing about his start this year, and all of it is justified, so I'm not going to go there. Instead I want to just briefly talk about his 2005 year, the one where he completely broke down, caused him to quit baseball and find a cure to his chemical imbalance.
In 2004, as a 20 year old, Greinke was quite awesome. 3.97 ERA in 145 innings with a 1.61 bb/9. In 2005 he fell apart losing 18 games with a 5.80 ERA. His BABIP in 2004 was .275, his FIP 4.70. A 4.70 FIP is still awesome from a 20 year old in the major leagues with that kind of control. But wouldn't a 4.49 FIP be a little better? Because that's the FIP Greinke had in 2005, the year his ERA rose to 5.8, the year he lost 18 games, the year his BABIP was .343 and his LOB% was 65.2%. So it seems to me like Greinke didn't get much worse the next year, he just got unlucky. Sure his bb/9 rose, and his k/9 shrunk, but his 2004 success was partially due to some good luck, and his 2005 failures was largely due to some really piss poor luck.
Maybe Greinke's success in 2004 gave him some false confidence. Sure he was a great pitcher with immense talent, but he wasn't as good as the stats showed. And when his luck went the other way, he couldn't deal with it. I don't think Greinke is the first young star with talent to have that happen to him and I don't think he'll be the last.
I just find this whole situation pretty interesting. I don't know his exact situation and I won't pretend to, but it's interesting that his bad luck in 2005 caused him to be depressed and seek help, has almost been, well lucky. Let's play a stupid what if game. What if Greinke didn't get unlucky in 2005, what kind of pitcher would be be today? He was essentially the same pitcher both years and what he lost some areas (bb/9, k/9) he gained in others (better GB%). Greinke threw around 90 MPH with a 96 mph fastball in his pocket that he didn't use. He was an above average pitcher then, and he likely wouldn't be all that much bettre. Luckily that's not the case, he now uses that 95+ fastball, and in the 9th inning too.
I wonder what Tom Cruise would say about this, since he knows the history of psychology and all...
In 2004, as a 20 year old, Greinke was quite awesome. 3.97 ERA in 145 innings with a 1.61 bb/9. In 2005 he fell apart losing 18 games with a 5.80 ERA. His BABIP in 2004 was .275, his FIP 4.70. A 4.70 FIP is still awesome from a 20 year old in the major leagues with that kind of control. But wouldn't a 4.49 FIP be a little better? Because that's the FIP Greinke had in 2005, the year his ERA rose to 5.8, the year he lost 18 games, the year his BABIP was .343 and his LOB% was 65.2%. So it seems to me like Greinke didn't get much worse the next year, he just got unlucky. Sure his bb/9 rose, and his k/9 shrunk, but his 2004 success was partially due to some good luck, and his 2005 failures was largely due to some really piss poor luck.
Maybe Greinke's success in 2004 gave him some false confidence. Sure he was a great pitcher with immense talent, but he wasn't as good as the stats showed. And when his luck went the other way, he couldn't deal with it. I don't think Greinke is the first young star with talent to have that happen to him and I don't think he'll be the last.
I just find this whole situation pretty interesting. I don't know his exact situation and I won't pretend to, but it's interesting that his bad luck in 2005 caused him to be depressed and seek help, has almost been, well lucky. Let's play a stupid what if game. What if Greinke didn't get unlucky in 2005, what kind of pitcher would be be today? He was essentially the same pitcher both years and what he lost some areas (bb/9, k/9) he gained in others (better GB%). Greinke threw around 90 MPH with a 96 mph fastball in his pocket that he didn't use. He was an above average pitcher then, and he likely wouldn't be all that much bettre. Luckily that's not the case, he now uses that 95+ fastball, and in the 9th inning too.
I wonder what Tom Cruise would say about this, since he knows the history of psychology and all...
Top Managers
The Yankees always start off slow, and even though that's not really an adequate excuse, it's still too early to say that Girardi should be fired. However, at some point Girardi has to you know, get the Yankees to play above .500 baseball. The Yankees can play the injury card if they want, they are missing a top 5 player, Wang has been worse than if he was just hurt all year, and their only setup men who have succeeded in the majors are on the DL. But, the Red Sox are without Dice K and Papi has the same ops+ as Ramiro Pena.
You could argue which is worse all you want, but the point is injuries are part of the game, and the Yankees have been very bad at dealing with them, they have a great team but currently they arguably have 11 players on the roster who should be in the minor leagues. It's still only May, and unless you are the Dodgers, the division is still wide open, but I think it would be safe to say Girardi isn't among the best managers. That makes us ask who are the best? John Heyman lists his:
The only real problem with the list is that this is about managers today yet Heyman tells us we can't forget about LaRussa in 2007, Ozzie in 2005, the early 90s with Cito Gasten, and Torre on the Yankees but that we should forget about Bobby Cox. I don't think Cox could go from a great manager for 15 years, then become one of the lesser managers that easily. I suppose it's not that bold of me to criticize a guy who's saying I understand I'm going to be criticized for doing this, but don't one run games have a lot to do with luck, and as he even mentioned, bullpens?
You could argue which is worse all you want, but the point is injuries are part of the game, and the Yankees have been very bad at dealing with them, they have a great team but currently they arguably have 11 players on the roster who should be in the minor leagues. It's still only May, and unless you are the Dodgers, the division is still wide open, but I think it would be safe to say Girardi isn't among the best managers. That makes us ask who are the best? John Heyman lists his:
I totally agree with LaRussa, he is in a class by himself. He does have the best player in the game, but he doesn't have much more than that. What he and Dave Duncan has done is utterly incredible. Leo Mazzone was credited as being a pitching genius, but he was also given three Hall of Famers, and we saw what he did (or didn't) do in Baltimore. Chris Carpenter, Jeff Weaver, Kyle Lohse, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, Duncan and LaRussa have brought in pitcher after pitcher who were really just bad and made them pitch quality innings.
1. La Russa, Cardinals: We can't ever forget he won a World Series in 2006 with a team that was generally considered the eighth-best of eight in the playoffs. But even better, he and pitching coach Dave Duncan consistently have gotten the most out of their roster ever since.
4. Joe Torre, Dodgers: Sure, I thought his time was up with the Yankees. And I've heard the claims that he's lucked into yet another great situation with the Dodgers. But his teams just keep winning, and you can't argue with that kind of success.
7. Ozzie Guillen, White Sox: There's really no good reason not to love Ozzie besides occasional political incorrectness. Sure, he's goofy. But don't let that fool you. He's smart. We can't forget he ran the table with a very good but not great team in 2005.
Others: There was criticism in past years for ranking Bobby Cox in the second five, and I'll have to accept what comes my way now for omitting him altogether. But this isn't 1995 anymore. Cox was a very good manager in his heyday, and players consistently vouch for him, even today. But he was never great strategically and he's lost a vast majority of one-run road games in recent years, including a record 29 straight on the road that was ended last Sept 13 (some of that may be attributable to a shaky bullpen, though).
The only real problem with the list is that this is about managers today yet Heyman tells us we can't forget about LaRussa in 2007, Ozzie in 2005, the early 90s with Cito Gasten, and Torre on the Yankees but that we should forget about Bobby Cox. I don't think Cox could go from a great manager for 15 years, then become one of the lesser managers that easily. I suppose it's not that bold of me to criticize a guy who's saying I understand I'm going to be criticized for doing this, but don't one run games have a lot to do with luck, and as he even mentioned, bullpens?
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Maybe That Mets Trade Wasn't Sooooo Bad...
The Scott Kazmir one. That trade is still horrible any way you want to slice it, but going forward is Scott Kazmir no longer going to torment Mets fans, at least for this year? Fangraphs thinks Kazmir is a broken pitcher right now.
They use great graphs like only they can, and make some great points. Kazmir used to throw his FB at around 92-93, this year it's at 89. His Slider was 84 MPH, this year it's 80. His K/9 has dropped the last few years, and his bb/9 has increased, obviously not good signs. His ERA is 6 on the nose and his BABIP is .316, his career BABIP is .317. He's likely pitched better than that 6 ERA, but really not much better, or at least luck hasn't really been much of a factor this year.
They use great graphs like only they can, and make some great points. Kazmir used to throw his FB at around 92-93, this year it's at 89. His Slider was 84 MPH, this year it's 80. His K/9 has dropped the last few years, and his bb/9 has increased, obviously not good signs. His ERA is 6 on the nose and his BABIP is .316, his career BABIP is .317. He's likely pitched better than that 6 ERA, but really not much better, or at least luck hasn't really been much of a factor this year.
Those missing MPH are having a pretty big impact. Batters are making contact with 84% of the pitches Kazmir throws this year, way up from his 75% career average. In turn, his strikeouts are down, but he hasn’t been able to offset the loss of dominance with a corresponding improvement in his walk rate. His 4.91 BB/9 is the highest he’s posted since his rookie season.From 2005-07 Kazmir really a special player when healthy, but last year he was just OK, pretty much a 5 inning pitcher. I believe something is wrong with Kazmir and I believe the Rays could find out that problem, but I'm not sure that they can fix it and have the Kazmir of old. He's always been kind of brittle, he's throws a lot of pitches, and his velocity has decreased across the boards, that doesn't add up to a resurgence to me.
Not surprisingly, this version of broken Kazmir isn’t very good. His FIP is 4.78 and last night’s beating pushed his ERA to 6.00. The Rays have David Price waiting in Triple-A, and with Kazmir looking like he needs a stint on the disabled list and an MRI, they might not be able to keep him down on the farm much longer. This Rays team needs a boost, and until they figure out what’s wrong with Kazmir, it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting it from his spot in the rotation.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Yankees Can't Afford Sound Medical Advice
First off, sorry for the light posting during April. I like to have around 30-35 posts a month, I'll try to have 40 in May to make up for it
Now about the Yankees. Of course they can afford sound medical advice, but as Pete Abe notes, the Yankees have done a pretty piss poor job evaluating injuries of late:
Recently when someone brought up Mark Teixeira's struggles I was quick to say how he's a notoriously slow starter, but I forgot about that wrist. Of course Teix is a slow starter with a career .869 OPS in the first half and a .964 in the second half, but now his health could be the issue. And if it is an issue, I'm with Pete on this one. Too often star players will play at levels not near 100%, where the backup at 100% health will likely be more productive. When Jeter has a sore hammy, a broken toe, and a tweaked shoulder I think I'd rather have Pena start at SS that day, I'd even want him to bat in the clutchiest of clutch situations that Jeter always excels in (notice the slight sarcasm). That's not to say that Teix's struggles are with the wrist and that he won't go .330/.420./.600 in May, but if is because of the wrist, then get it fixed goddammit.
And as for this being a reoccurring problem with the Yankees, I'm not sure what to think about that. Like I said, I understand a team willing to sacrifice something later in order to win now, there is some value to that. However, sacrificing later because you are unaware of the problem now is just inexcusable. I don't follow every team's injury issues (in fact I father no team's injuries in depth) so for all I know this could be a just a flukey thing that randomly happens to teams from time to time, but that sounds kinda stupid. The Yankees have $300m invested in Arod, the starting pitchin (the 'strength' of the team) relies on a healthy Wang, and their only proven non Mo reliever is Marte, yet the Yankees have missed the boat on all their injuries? Like Pete said, no one person can be blamed, but it would benefit the Yankees to find out why this has happened, and figure out that wind tunnel deal too while you're at it.
Now about the Yankees. Of course they can afford sound medical advice, but as Pete Abe notes, the Yankees have done a pretty piss poor job evaluating injuries of late:
The Yankees motto is to win now at all costs (although recently it's been a slightly less cost) so it would be understandable if the Yankees, aware of Arod's hip last year, would want him to play even if it meant missing some of this year. But to not be aware of the injury, well that is just unacceptable. Ignorance is bliss, but in this case ignorance leads to damaged expensive goods.Damaso Marte went seven days without pitching then they decided to put him on the disabled list. Then we found out today that the injury he had in spring training never really cleared up. Meanwhile, he made seven appearances and got knocked around.
Chien-Ming Wang, as it turns out, had weakness in his injured foot and that led to atrophied hip muscles. How did this go unnoticed all spring and lead to his getting crushed for three starts?
A-Rod said his hip injury was an issue last June. Yet he played the rest of the year and it went undiagnosed until March. Then he needed surgery that has so far kept him out a month. [...]
Look at Mark Teixeira, for instance. He has not been the same since he injured his wrist. What would be better for the Yankees, Juan Miranda playing first base or Tex going 2 for 27? Should he be on the DL?
Recently when someone brought up Mark Teixeira's struggles I was quick to say how he's a notoriously slow starter, but I forgot about that wrist. Of course Teix is a slow starter with a career .869 OPS in the first half and a .964 in the second half, but now his health could be the issue. And if it is an issue, I'm with Pete on this one. Too often star players will play at levels not near 100%, where the backup at 100% health will likely be more productive. When Jeter has a sore hammy, a broken toe, and a tweaked shoulder I think I'd rather have Pena start at SS that day, I'd even want him to bat in the clutchiest of clutch situations that Jeter always excels in (notice the slight sarcasm). That's not to say that Teix's struggles are with the wrist and that he won't go .330/.420./.600 in May, but if is because of the wrist, then get it fixed goddammit.
And as for this being a reoccurring problem with the Yankees, I'm not sure what to think about that. Like I said, I understand a team willing to sacrifice something later in order to win now, there is some value to that. However, sacrificing later because you are unaware of the problem now is just inexcusable. I don't follow every team's injury issues (in fact I father no team's injuries in depth) so for all I know this could be a just a flukey thing that randomly happens to teams from time to time, but that sounds kinda stupid. The Yankees have $300m invested in Arod, the starting pitchin (the 'strength' of the team) relies on a healthy Wang, and their only proven non Mo reliever is Marte, yet the Yankees have missed the boat on all their injuries? Like Pete said, no one person can be blamed, but it would benefit the Yankees to find out why this has happened, and figure out that wind tunnel deal too while you're at it.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Fantasy Poker?
No, not really but the Fantasy Ball Junkie asked a great question, is fantasy baseball becoming more like poker?
At the higher levels of each, everyone knows what they are doing and everyone has a strategy. And in Fantasy at that point, luck plays an even larger factor. In an advanced league everyone will theoretically already know your "advanced" strategies that work in your public league. When every every closer in waiting already locked up and Mariano Rivera goes down, well that's just bad luck. So I definitely agree with the Junkie here. If everyone is using the same data for player evaluation (much like poker player using the same starting hands) being able to stay in the tournament when someone's gets you on the river, or in this case being able to deal with unforseen injuries become the difference maker.
everyone has easy access these days to metrics like BABIP and FIP. On the other hand, being able to properly weight upside vs. risk, negotiating statistical incentives to effectively manage a roster of assets, and having psychological insight to competitors’ needs still have supreme importance...Every professional poker player knows when to hold and when to fold, they essentially all play the same few starting hands anyways. A good player knowing to throw away their pre flop low pair after several raises is probably like a good fantasy baseball player not buying the hype of a career year in the 3rd round of a draft. There are a lot of similarities here.
Fantasy baseball has become a lot more like poker in recent years. If we all follow what the data is telling us, we’ll all start out with a strong draw of cards. Finding the best way to minimize the damage created by unlucky and unforeseeable flop becomes the thing that will separate the winners from the losers more often than not.
At the higher levels of each, everyone knows what they are doing and everyone has a strategy. And in Fantasy at that point, luck plays an even larger factor. In an advanced league everyone will theoretically already know your "advanced" strategies that work in your public league. When every every closer in waiting already locked up and Mariano Rivera goes down, well that's just bad luck. So I definitely agree with the Junkie here. If everyone is using the same data for player evaluation (much like poker player using the same starting hands) being able to stay in the tournament when someone's gets you on the river, or in this case being able to deal with unforseen injuries become the difference maker.
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