The Problem With Prospects

I'm mystified with potential. When I play fantasy I often go too much for 'breakout' players and get burned. When I play baseball simulation games on the computer I always stockpile great young players. Obviously that doesn't always work out. The Angels had one of the greatest farm systems in baseball a few years ago and I decided to look back on that.

In Baseball America's top prospects for 2005, the Angels had Casey Kotchman #6, Dallas McPherson #12, Erik Aybar #39, Jeff Mathis #67, Kendrey Morales #76, Brandon Wood #83.

In Baseball America's top prospects for 2006, Brandon Wood moved to #3, Howie Kendrick #12, Erik Aybar #46, Jered Weaver #57, Jeff Mathis #60, Kendrey Morales #78, and Nick Adenhart #90 (R.I.P.).

If that worked out, how good would the Angels be right now. They would have a stud Kotchman (a young Todd Helton) at 1b, a constant .300+ 2b in Kendrick at 2b, a potential 40 hr guy in Wood at SS, a prime Troy Glaus in McPherson at 3b, a great hitting catcher in Mathis behind the plate, a solid OF in Morales, a great utility infielder/outfielder in Aybar, and some quality young pitching. They could have 3-4 allstars under $1m right now, of course if it worked out.

It obviously didn't work out as planned. Some of these players are obviously still good, but it's surprising that not one has become an allstar, or near an allstar really. The book isn't out on all these guys, but for some of them it is; Dallas McPhereson can't stay healthy, and Jeff Mathis has an OPS+ of 56! in 637 at bats, and unfortunately right when he looked like he was going to make it Adenhart suddenly passed. That's not to say that Kendrick and Aybar aren't good players, or that Weaver is like his brother, but you would think with ALL that talent that just one, one player would be a knockout. That's the problem with potential, it's just that, potential.

Still, it's interesting to wonder what the Angels would look like if those players were more successful. They've been one of the better franchises the last few years without those players breaking out, imagine how dominant they would be if it was the other way around? You could think of it like the Red Sox team now. Kendrick could be Dustin Pedroia, McPherson could be Youklis, and they still would have a 40 hr SS on top of that, not to mention several other players. If the Angels roster now had Pedroia, Youklis, and an allstar short stop, would any team stand a chance?

A lot of people wish teams like the Yankees did things differently, that they rebuild their team with young players. Well it's not that easy, it doesn't just happen. Not that relying on guys 35 and older is a good idea, but the Rays needed a decade's worth of top picks and only now is it starting to show. And the Angels ridiculous amount of young talent hasn't worked out like planned. A great team can do both (spend money on free agents and build within), and that's what the Angels have done, and what the Red Sox currently do, but potential is nothing you can rely on.