I Want To Say It Will Be The Last...

Time I post on whether Joba should start or relieve, but it likely won't be. This article sums it all up pretty brilliantly though:

In 180 innings as a starter, Chamberlain would be worth about 50 runs above replacement. In 80 innings as a reliever, he'd be worth about 35. Fifty is more than 35.

Of course you can introduce a fudge factor here: Innings pitched by a reliever of Chamberlain's caliber are generally more valuable than those pitched by a starter, sometimes twice as much or more so. Double the value of Chamberlain's relief innings, and suddenly he is actually more valuable as a set-up man. The counter to that, though, is that he would absolutely not run up a 1.53 ERA as a reliever going forward. Spectators blinded by the brilliant memory of this apparition appearing from nowhere two years ago to heave bowling balls and vanishing benders at clueless batters might not believe it, but it's true.

1.53 is preposterously good. For perspective, Rivera's career ERA is 2.25. Just for argument's sake, though, say that if you put Chamberlain in the bullpen tomorrow he would be every bit as good as Rivera has been in his career. In that case he'd be worth 25 or so runs above replacement per 80 innings of relief. Double the value of those innings and he comes out as no more or less valuable than he would as a starter. This assumes, again, that he would pitch as well as the most magnificent reliever anyone has ever seen.

The biggest point that I see why Joba should start is that a starter's innings total is more valuable than a reliever's. The biggest counter to that point is that relief innings are more valuable. When you are having an argument over this at a bar (or on Mike'd Up) it's hard to sufficiently back your claim beyond who can yell the loudest. But as you see here, when you it down and look at the numbers, even assuming Joba would be the best reliever in the game, and even assuming the 8th inning is twice as important, relieving still comes up short.

Sure the calculations may not be completely sound, but they don't need to be. The Yankees biggest problem now would be their bullpen, a problem that Joba would likely help instantly. However, taking him out of the rotation creates an even bigger weakness, the rotation. Need I say more?