Joe Torre: Still Winning, Still Ruining Arms

The Dodgers are 46-24 with an 8 game lead in the NL West. It's not like they are trying to hold off a struggling team due to play better either as nobody would confuse the Giants or Rockies as great teams, let alone good teams. It's safe to say the Dodgers are going to make the playoffs, like ~98% chance. This is something Joe Torre is used to, making the playoffs. Since he coached the Yankees in 1996 he hasn't missed the playoffs. Another thing Torre is used to is relying on only a select few relievers and overusing them. This has made some noise recently as there has been enough season so far to judge relief usage, Buster Olney pointed out some interesting numbers:

Jonathan Broxton
Games: 30 | 71 | 83
Innings: 33 | 79 | 82
Work on consecutive days: 10.

Ramon Troncoso
Games: 30 | 71 | 55 (minors and majors combined)
Innings: 43 | 102 | 68.1 (minors and majors combined)
Work on consecutive days: 7

Ronald Belisario
Games: 35 | 83 | 38 (minor leagues)
Innings: 40.1 | 95 | 59 (minor leagues)
Work on consecutive days: 11

Those 3 numbers are the player's current totals, their on-pace totals, and their career high. As you can see the top 3 relievers this year in Joe Torre's bullpen are all going to pitch more innings and games than they ever have. And most notably are the two setup men, Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso. Although there is no evidence to suggest that the Verducci Rule means anything, his 30 inning increase is a cause for alarm for starting pitchers. A 30 inning increase for a reliever makes what Torre is doing sound even more ridiculous.

It's been well documented that Torre destroys setup men Olney mentions Steve Karsay, Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, Tanyon Sturtze, Scott Proctor as prime examples. Last year Hong-Chih Kuo threw 80 innings with a 2.14 ERA, this year he's hurt. Last year Corey Wade threw 71 innings with a 2.27 ERA, this year he's thrown 25 with a 4.68. I realize relievers are very volatile and with so few innings their ERAs could be fluky one way or another (Wade's FIP this year is in line with last year for instance), but Joe Torre has not earned the benefit of the doubt. In the playoffs when Chad Billingsly goes 7 strong innings and Torre hands the ball off to Belasario in the 8th, there may be nothing left in his tank if he keeps this pace (hello Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill). Likewise, next year if the Dodgers bullpen looks great on paper, don't be surprised if Belasario and Troncoso struggle feeling the effects of overuse the year after (hello Proctor, Sturtze, and Karsay). The frustrating thing is Torre doesn't need to do this. It's somewhat understandable to do it in New York when every game is analyzed. It's understandable when you are trying to win a division, but with an 8 game lead Torre is likely hurting his chances of winning the division by giving these guys the ball every game.

As long as Torre is managing he'll likely keep winning games and in addition to that keep adding names to his list of ruined arms. It's already a pretty long list, I won't be surprised to see Wade, Kuo, Belisario, Troncoso on it soon, if they aren't already.