Brief World Series Analysis

I'm a little late to the game of getting out a World Series prediction post so I will make this (relatively) brief:

Starting Pitching

The Giants made it to the post season and the World Series because of their P's - Pitching and Posey. Buste Posey is a viable and deserving MVP candidate and Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and sometimes Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum makes a strong rotation. Considering it's one of the Giants strengths, one would assume it would be a strength in their match-up with the Tigers right? Well, probably not. Matt Cain is great and even threw a perfect game this year but Justin Verlander has two no-hitters in his career, has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons and is backing it up during the post-season with a mere two earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched thus far.

Verlander, we all know about Verlander, but the Giants have the edge in rotation depth, right? Eh not really. Madison Bumgarner is a great young pitcher, but people have conveniently forgotten how good Scherzer was this year. His 3.74 ERA might not outshine Bumgarner's 3.37 ERA but we all know it's not that simple. See, Max Scherzer pitches in the American League with a cruddy defense and had a 3.23 xFIP while striking out 29.4% of the batters he's faced. And while I could have gotten a few outs against the Yankees in that series, Scherzer has continued his strong performance in October, striking out 18 batters over 11 innings pitched while giving up just one earned run. Now, Bumgarner had a stellar xFIP (3.45) himself and it's not as if Scherzer no longer has a cruddy defense behind him, but the narrative that Bumgarner is another ace on the Giants that the Tigers can't match just simply isn't true.

After that, the Giants have Ryan Vogelsong and the Tigers have Doug Fister but with the Giants rotation all shook up after having to go seven games I'll simply stop talking about the starting pitching. Justin Verlander will be facing off against Barry Zito twice. Need I say more? Advantage Tigers.

Bullpen

With Jose Valverde struggling, the Tigers either don't have a closer or will continue to use their lone lefty, Phil Coke, as one. Any way you slice it however, the Giants have a strong edge here. The Giants lost Brian Wilson this year but Sergio Romo is at least as good and with Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla the Giants have the flexibility to mix and match. Jose Valverde's sucktitude, which was fully realized against the Yankees but was going on all year (5.01 xFIP) probably helps them as the less he pitches in big spots the better, but overall this is advantage Giants.

Defense

Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Delmon Young are all designated hitters that will be playing the field in this series but if you want some statistical reasoning here you go:

Giants: 8.6 Team UZR

Tigers: -28.1 Team UZR

In English that means that as a team the Giants saved almost 9 runs above the average defense while the Tigers gave up almost 30 runs more than the average defense. UZR requires a large sample size, but when the difference is that large it's not hard to say advantage Giants. 

Lineup

Marco Scutaro has been excellent at the plate since coming over to the Giants but without Melky Cabrera (I really don't get why the wouldn't want to add him to the World Series roster, I mean I do, but it seems sub-optimal) the Giants lineup basically consists of Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and what remains of Hunter Pence's bat with the occasional Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan or Gregor Blanco thrown in. Not that scary. The Tigers lineup is also top heavy but their top carries more weight both in how they can hit and how much the actually weigh (although Pablo Sandoval would beg to differ). For the season, the Tigers as a team had a 105 wRC+ and the Giants 99 wRC+, so the difference isn't insurmountable but nonetheless, advantage Tigers.

Conclusion
The Tigers have advantages in the standard way one would judge a team with a superior rotation and lineup while the Giants have an edge in all of the little things like defense, bullpen and base running. With the exception of the ALCS the 2012 postseason has been extremely close and I see no reason why that won't continue. It might be a toss-up but I'm predicting the Tigers in 7 with Verlander recording the final out pitching out of the bullpen. And then the dude gets to go home to Kate Upton. 

Carlos Beltran's Postseason Resume and his Hall of Fame Case

For many fans, at least in the Queens area, Carlos Beltran's postseason resume looks a lot like this:

Striking out looking isn't the best way to end a playoff series but it also doesn't mean that Beltran is the least clutchiest player of all time.

In fact, his postseason resume is quite remarkable. Let's take a look:

• 29 Games Played
• 108 At Bats
• 14 Home Runs, 25 RBI
• .370/.481/.824
• 9/9 on Stolen Bases
• 23 Walks; 15 Strike Outs

Wow.

Now, similar to the way people dismiss Alex Rodriguez' 2009 playoff performance to say he otherwise hasn't performed when it matters most, it has been said that Beltran was mostly just good in his historic 2004 postseason with the Astros when he had eight home runs in only 12 games. However, in 17 postseason games since 2004, Beltran has hit .322/.422/.677 with  six home runs and 11 RBI. Not bad.

One could make a case, a very strong case, that Carlos Beltran is the best postseason batter of all time. But what about his hall of fame case?

According to fWAR Carlos Beltran ranks 118th all time among batters with 65.3 WAR. On its own, that honestly doesn't sound too impressive but it is 17th all time among center fielders and it's a higher mark than Sammy Sosa (64.1), Ryne Sandberg (62.6) and Andre Dawson (62.3). For a more contemporary frame of reference, Beltran is right around Andruw Jones (72.1), Bobby Abreu (63), Adrian Beltre (62.3),  Todd Helton (61.3), Lance Berkman (60.1) and Vladamir Guerrero (59.8). Also, like Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran's career is still going strong and he will likely build on that number.

I would not advocate using WAR (especially just one version of it) as the sole benchmark to determine someone's hall of fame case, but the point remains that Carlos Beltran's name certainly belongs in the conversation.

Carlos Beltran's career is often simply characterized by a Rookie of the Year Award and an amazing postseason on Houston that he parlayed into a bad contract by the Mets. While Beltran didn't often bat .300, hit 40 home runs or make diving catches he would get on base, hit for power and play a terrific center field. He never lead the league in stolen bases but he stole them at a  86.7% clip, which is 1st among players with 300 or more steals. He never won a MVP but he was actually a deserving MVP Candidate for three of his six years on the Mets.  

Fans like to see their players hit arbitrary bench marks of performance and make diving plays in the field. Beltran wouldn't quite do that but it hasn't made him any less valuable of a player. Carlos Beltran's career isn't over yet and neither is his 2012 postseason. With a formidable regular season resume and one of the best postseason careers of all time, it looks like Beltran is on his way to Cooperstown. At least if I had a vote. 

About last night

So, I was fortunate enough to attend the Yankee game last night.

From the ceremonial Mariano Rivera first pitch until the Ibanez walk-off home run it was a fantastic evening.

Quick Thoughts:

• Kuroda pitched a great game, pitching into the ninth while only allowing two runs. His opponent, Miguel Gonzalez, was just as good too, letting up one run in seven innings, striking out eight. On the season Gonzalez had a 3.25 ERA but his 4.36 xFIP was less than stellar. Still, the Orioles might have something on their hands with Gonzalez. He won't be an ace but he could provide valuable innings, something the Orioles struggled to get from their rotation until this season and will need to continue to have if they want to be back here next year. 
• Jonah Keri nailed it a few days ago when talking about Orioles closer Jim Johnson and it rings true again today -"regression is a bitch." 
• Obviously Girardi pinch hitting Raul Ibanez for Alex Rodriguez was the right call based on results, but was it necessarily the 'right' call? Hard to say. I didn't hate the move but I also wasn't calling or cheering for it, like the many fans around me at the game. On the year Arod had a .346 wOBA, the worst of his career but still higher than Ibanez (.325). In a situation where outs are more valuable, Arod's OBA was also .353, significantly higher than the .308 mark that Ibanez put up. However, small sample size warnings withstanding, against righties this year the left-handed Ibanez had a .342 wOBA compared to Arod's .314 wOBA. In the midst of a slump with a tough right hander pitching that made Arod look silly the night before, I can't argue with Girardi's "gut" - he made the right call.

And that's just the Yankee game. Caught up in the hoopla of the win and the subway ride back, I missed the end of the A's game and their terrific ninth inning come back. The A's scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth off of Jose Valverde, but can anyone be that surprised? You could actually make a (strong) case that Valverde is worst reliever on the Tigers. At least from the right side with Dotel, Alburquerque and Benoit clearly better options right now. Justin Verlander takes the hill next in the decisive game five, so the Tigers may not even need to use a reliever, but it will be interesting to see how long of a leash Jim Leyland gives Valverde. 

A Belated Yankees/Orioles Preview

This preview comes from a fellow friend, Yankee fan and fantasy baseball foe of mine, Jeff Winston...

Let me start this off by saying that less than 48 hours prior to writing this, I actually predicted that the Texas Rangers would beat the Baltimore Orioles in the one game Wild Card.  Yet, as they have for 162 games this season, the Baltimore Orioles continue to defy the odds.  Ron Washington, post game, stated it best:  “To be honest with you, I never thought anything like this would happen.”

The Baltimore Orioles.  The team that only finished the season with a +7 run differential (compared to the Yankees’ +136), yet managed to win 93 games this season.  The critics, like myself, all season long continue to bet against these Orioles.  On paper, they shouldn’t be in the playoffs.  But, they’re in the playoffs… and, they’ve gotten past the one game Wild Card, on the road.  Is it time for this critic of the Orioles to finally buy in, when they’re going against his Yankees?  The same critic who said the Yankees would lose in the ALDS to the Texas Rangers?  Nope.  It’s time to change my tone.  If this were poker, it’s not a tournament, but a cash game… and I’m buying back in, and feeling lucky.  The two teams may have split their 18 meetings this year, but now it’s the playoffs, and I say…  Let’s Go Yankees!

Hitting:  The Baltimore Orioles haven’t gotten where they are this season by out-scoring their opponents (as I will address later on when pitching comes around).  That’s not to say they don’t have potent bats in their lineup, like Adam “gobble gobble I think I’m Pacman but I’m not” Jones, Mark “I was the Adam Dunn of the American League until Adam Dunn came back to the American League, now I’m just Mark” Reynolds and Manny “I’m going to party like I’m 1996 Andruw Jones” Machado.  However, there isn’t Nick Markakis, who is a big reason the Orioles are where they are, when the O’s switched him to leadoff, but before he got hurt.

The Yankees counter with a team defined by the home run (with 10  players on the roster with at least 10 HR on the season), rejuvenated Derek Jeter, who managed to lead the league this season in hits (216) and a perhaps rejuvenated Ichiro Suzuki, who hit .322 with a .340 OBP since being acquired by the Yankees.  If the Yankees are going to score runs, they’re going to need to do it with the long ball, which means it’s up to Alex “I’m not really gay, right?  Right, I don’t think I’m gay” Rodriguez, Mark “I really hope I’m not over the hill” Teixeira, Robinson “I’m hotter than hot right now” Cano and Nick “look at these amazing side burns, they’re the best side burns since Donnie baseball” Swisher. 

Advantage:  Yankees

Starting Pitching:  Matt Lindstrom.  That’s essentially who it cost the Orioles on August 26 to acquire Joe Saunders, who nutted up and got the Orioles past the Texas Rangers and into this American League Division Series.  Similar to their hitting, the Orioles haven’t been defined this season by their starting pitching, as they don’t have any names that jump off the paper and are going to scare you.  “Rookie” sensations Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez and Chris “trying not to be this teams next Brian Matusz” Tillman.  No Justin Verlanders in this pitching staff.  The Orioles get things done by keeping things close, and letting their bullpen handle the rest.

The Yankees, on paper, blow the Orioles’ rotation out of the water.  No Pineda, but, no Nova in this starting rotation either.  Instead, the Yankees will roll out with CC “you can’t fight me, I’m the size of a bouncer” Sabathia, Andy “what’s my age again?” Pettitte, Hiroki “thank god I’m no longer on the Dodgers” Kuroda and Phil “thank you for not trading me to the Twins way back when for Johan” Hughes.  The Yankees starters are there to pitch deep into games before handing it over to their bullpen, and, the Yankees are going to need their starters to do just that if they hope to end this Cinderella story.

Advantage:  Yankees

Relief Pitching:  This is where the Orioles beat you.  Their bullpen is solid.  There is just no other way of saying it.  Armed with four middle relievers with sub 3.00 era’s, now reliever Brian “what did Chris Tillman just say about me?!” Matusz, and 51 save star Jim “bring it” Johnson.  No filler needed to make this any longer, the Orioles have the best bullpen in the American League.

The Yankees have been defined by Mariano Rivera.  Clutch, professional, game over.  Yet, as anyone who is actually reading this knows, the Yankees don’t have Mariano Rivera this time around, thanks to his injury.  The Yankees still, however, have one of the better bullpens in the American League, led by Rafael “what do you mean I’m no Rivera!?” Soriano, Dave “the South will riiiise again!” Robertson, Boone “how ‘bout those Braves” Logan and Clay “my mom says I’m cool” Rapada. 

It’s not that Yankees fans shouldn’t feel confident in this bullpen.  However, Yankees fans should hope that these games get decided before it is left to the bullpens.  Otherwise, Cinderella is going to make her midnight appearance, and her carriage won’t be turning back into a pumpkin in this story.

Advantage:  Orioles

Yankees in 5. 

Playoffs?

Many will enter, one will win!

Readers of this blog will know that I'm excited about the new playoff system, and I'm looking forward to its start tomorrow, to say the least.

At 5 p.m. EST the St. Louis Cardinals will travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves and at 8:30 p.m. EST the Baltimore Orioles will battle the Rangers in Texas.

Thoughts:

A late season surge put Baltimore in the + side but for the year their run differential was still a meager +7, easily the lowest of any postseason team. In fact, seven teams that missed out on the postseason had a better run differential than the Orioles. With that said, it's not a stretch to say that the Rangers have the superior team. However, with that now said, it's just a one game playoff and any team can win one game, amirite? However again, with those things now said, the Orioles are looking to start Joe Saunders or Steve Johnson opposite of Yu Darvish. Joe Saunders has pitched well for the Orioles this season, in 44.2 IP he has a 3.63 ERA but it's Joe Saunders and his 4.25 xFIP this season and his 6.48 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers doesn't really have them shaking in their boots.

Of course the Orioles could turn to Steve Johnson, who's been terrific for them in 38.1 innings, but as Aaron Gleeman said, that would be a pretty "gutsy call by Showalter." For lack of a better word, with two crappy (I guess less than stellar would work) options to start an even gutsier call (but a likely smarter one) would be to skip the starter entirely and just use the bullpen, or starters for an inning or two at a time.

Leave it to Dave Cameron to hit you with the logic:

It’s pretty well known at this point that relief pitchers perform better than starting pitchers, as the ability to air it out for 15-20 pitches leads to increased velocity and better stuff for most pitchers. Additionally, relievers more often face same-handed hitters, so they get a larger advantage from platoon splits, and they hardly ever face the same batter more than once in a game. These advantages add up in a hurry, which is why quality relief pitchers can sustain performances that even the best starters can’t come close to.

Cameron notes that there are some exceptions like Justin Verlander I believe we are all in agreement that Joe Saunders and Justin Verlander aren't in the same ballpark...it ain't the same league, it ain't even the same fuckin' sport. While I would love to see the Orioles or any team in the one game playoff use the skip the starter strategy, I don't see Showalter, bucking the trend (see what I did there?) of using a traditional starter and facing a better team with a better opposing pitcher. I'm calling the Rangers on this one.

Cameron's initial post on skipping the starter talked about the Braves benefit of doing so, but since that won't happen Kris Medlen will be facing Kyle Lohse tomorrow. If you consider yourself a baseball fan and haven't heard of Kris Medlen then you've either been living under a rock or simply lost track of the season as it went on for several months. Either way, check out his numbers since entering the rotation on July 31 - 12 starts, 9-0, 83.2 IP, 0.97 ERA, 84 SO, 10 BB - prettay, prettay good. Lohse isn't too shabby himself, posting a 2.86 ERA in 211 IP although with a less sexy 3.96 xFIP. In the end, Medlen and the Braves with one of the best bullpens in the league get an edge over the Cardinals for me.

And that's my two cents (or $20.00 based on length) on tomorrow's games. Luckily luck plays a role in all of this - if every team that should win actually won, sports wouldn't be much fun. 

New Playoff Format = Awesome

First of all, I would like to apologize for a summer sans Ben's Baseball Bias but I'm baaaaaaack!

Raul is Cool!

Second of all, and I will make this brief, but the early returns on the additional Wild Card spot have been a success. At least for me. See, I was at the Yankee game last night (in less than stellar seats as you can see) and even in the gross weather the atmosphere was terrific. Why? Well because the game had playoff implications that wouldn't have been there previously and I thoroughly enjoyed watching the game.

Would I have enjoyed watching if the Yankees lost? I wouldn't have enjoyed the ending, but the process would still be thrilling. I'm not trying to sound cheesy in a "This One Counts" sort of way for the All-Star game, but yeah, this one sort of counted more, and it was fun to watch.