Monday, October 8, 2012

A Belated Yankees/Orioles Preview

This preview comes from a fellow friend, Yankee fan and fantasy baseball foe of mine, Jeff Winston...

Let me start this off by saying that less than 48 hours prior to writing this, I actually predicted that the Texas Rangers would beat the Baltimore Orioles in the one game Wild Card.  Yet, as they have for 162 games this season, the Baltimore Orioles continue to defy the odds.  Ron Washington, post game, stated it best:  “To be honest with you, I never thought anything like this would happen.”

The Baltimore Orioles.  The team that only finished the season with a +7 run differential (compared to the Yankees’ +136), yet managed to win 93 games this season.  The critics, like myself, all season long continue to bet against these Orioles.  On paper, they shouldn’t be in the playoffs.  But, they’re in the playoffs… and, they’ve gotten past the one game Wild Card, on the road.  Is it time for this critic of the Orioles to finally buy in, when they’re going against his Yankees?  The same critic who said the Yankees would lose in the ALDS to the Texas Rangers?  Nope.  It’s time to change my tone.  If this were poker, it’s not a tournament, but a cash game… and I’m buying back in, and feeling lucky.  The two teams may have split their 18 meetings this year, but now it’s the playoffs, and I say…  Let’s Go Yankees!

Hitting:  The Baltimore Orioles haven’t gotten where they are this season by out-scoring their opponents (as I will address later on when pitching comes around).  That’s not to say they don’t have potent bats in their lineup, like Adam “gobble gobble I think I’m Pacman but I’m not” Jones, Mark “I was the Adam Dunn of the American League until Adam Dunn came back to the American League, now I’m just Mark” Reynolds and Manny “I’m going to party like I’m 1996 Andruw Jones” Machado.  However, there isn’t Nick Markakis, who is a big reason the Orioles are where they are, when the O’s switched him to leadoff, but before he got hurt.

The Yankees counter with a team defined by the home run (with 10  players on the roster with at least 10 HR on the season), rejuvenated Derek Jeter, who managed to lead the league this season in hits (216) and a perhaps rejuvenated Ichiro Suzuki, who hit .322 with a .340 OBP since being acquired by the Yankees.  If the Yankees are going to score runs, they’re going to need to do it with the long ball, which means it’s up to Alex “I’m not really gay, right?  Right, I don’t think I’m gay” Rodriguez, Mark “I really hope I’m not over the hill” Teixeira, Robinson “I’m hotter than hot right now” Cano and Nick “look at these amazing side burns, they’re the best side burns since Donnie baseball” Swisher. 

Advantage:  Yankees

Starting Pitching:  Matt Lindstrom.  That’s essentially who it cost the Orioles on August 26 to acquire Joe Saunders, who nutted up and got the Orioles past the Texas Rangers and into this American League Division Series.  Similar to their hitting, the Orioles haven’t been defined this season by their starting pitching, as they don’t have any names that jump off the paper and are going to scare you.  “Rookie” sensations Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez and Chris “trying not to be this teams next Brian Matusz” Tillman.  No Justin Verlanders in this pitching staff.  The Orioles get things done by keeping things close, and letting their bullpen handle the rest.

The Yankees, on paper, blow the Orioles’ rotation out of the water.  No Pineda, but, no Nova in this starting rotation either.  Instead, the Yankees will roll out with CC “you can’t fight me, I’m the size of a bouncer” Sabathia, Andy “what’s my age again?” Pettitte, Hiroki “thank god I’m no longer on the Dodgers” Kuroda and Phil “thank you for not trading me to the Twins way back when for Johan” Hughes.  The Yankees starters are there to pitch deep into games before handing it over to their bullpen, and, the Yankees are going to need their starters to do just that if they hope to end this Cinderella story.

Advantage:  Yankees

Relief Pitching:  This is where the Orioles beat you.  Their bullpen is solid.  There is just no other way of saying it.  Armed with four middle relievers with sub 3.00 era’s, now reliever Brian “what did Chris Tillman just say about me?!” Matusz, and 51 save star Jim “bring it” Johnson.  No filler needed to make this any longer, the Orioles have the best bullpen in the American League.

The Yankees have been defined by Mariano Rivera.  Clutch, professional, game over.  Yet, as anyone who is actually reading this knows, the Yankees don’t have Mariano Rivera this time around, thanks to his injury.  The Yankees still, however, have one of the better bullpens in the American League, led by Rafael “what do you mean I’m no Rivera!?” Soriano, Dave “the South will riiiise again!” Robertson, Boone “how ‘bout those Braves” Logan and Clay “my mom says I’m cool” Rapada. 

It’s not that Yankees fans shouldn’t feel confident in this bullpen.  However, Yankees fans should hope that these games get decided before it is left to the bullpens.  Otherwise, Cinderella is going to make her midnight appearance, and her carriage won’t be turning back into a pumpkin in this story.

Advantage:  Orioles

Yankees in 5. 

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