 |
| Many will enter, one will win! |
Readers of this blog will know that I'm excited about the new playoff system, and I'm looking forward to its start tomorrow, to say the least.
At 5 p.m. EST the St. Louis Cardinals will travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves and at 8:30 p.m. EST the Baltimore Orioles will battle the Rangers in Texas.
Thoughts:
A late season surge put Baltimore in the + side but for the year their run differential was still a meager +7, easily the lowest of any postseason team. In fact, seven teams that missed out on the postseason had a better run differential than the Orioles. With that said, it's not a stretch to say that the Rangers have the superior team. However, with that now said, it's just a one game playoff and any team can win one game, amirite? However again, with those things now said, the Orioles are looking to start Joe Saunders or Steve Johnson opposite of Yu Darvish. Joe Saunders has pitched well for the Orioles this season, in 44.2 IP he has a 3.63 ERA but it's Joe Saunders and his 4.25 xFIP this season and his 6.48 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers doesn't really have them shaking in their boots.
Of course the Orioles could turn to Steve Johnson, who's been terrific for them in 38.1 innings, but as Aaron Gleeman said, that would be a pretty "gutsy call by Showalter." For lack of a better word, with two crappy (I guess less than stellar would work) options to start an even gutsier call (but a likely smarter one) would be to skip the starter entirely and just use the bullpen, or starters for an inning or two at a time.
Leave it to Dave Cameron to hit you with the logic:
Cameron's initial post on skipping the starter talked about the Braves benefit of doing so, but since that won't happen Kris Medlen will be facing Kyle Lohse tomorrow. If you consider yourself a baseball fan and haven't heard of Kris Medlen then you've either been living under a rock or simply lost track of the season as it went on for several months. Either way, check out his numbers since entering the rotation on July 31 - 12 starts, 9-0, 83.2 IP, 0.97 ERA, 84 SO, 10 BB - prettay, prettay good. Lohse isn't too shabby himself, posting a 2.86 ERA in 211 IP although with a less sexy 3.96 xFIP. In the end, Medlen and the Braves with one of the best bullpens in the league get an edge over the Cardinals for me.
And that's my two cents (or $20.00 based on length) on tomorrow's games. Luckily luck plays a role in all of this - if every team that should win actually won, sports wouldn't be much fun.
At 5 p.m. EST the St. Louis Cardinals will travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves and at 8:30 p.m. EST the Baltimore Orioles will battle the Rangers in Texas.
Thoughts:
A late season surge put Baltimore in the + side but for the year their run differential was still a meager +7, easily the lowest of any postseason team. In fact, seven teams that missed out on the postseason had a better run differential than the Orioles. With that said, it's not a stretch to say that the Rangers have the superior team. However, with that now said, it's just a one game playoff and any team can win one game, amirite? However again, with those things now said, the Orioles are looking to start Joe Saunders or Steve Johnson opposite of Yu Darvish. Joe Saunders has pitched well for the Orioles this season, in 44.2 IP he has a 3.63 ERA but it's Joe Saunders and his 4.25 xFIP this season and his 6.48 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers doesn't really have them shaking in their boots.
Of course the Orioles could turn to Steve Johnson, who's been terrific for them in 38.1 innings, but as Aaron Gleeman said, that would be a pretty "gutsy call by Showalter." For lack of a better word, with two crappy (I guess less than stellar would work) options to start an even gutsier call (but a likely smarter one) would be to skip the starter entirely and just use the bullpen, or starters for an inning or two at a time.
Leave it to Dave Cameron to hit you with the logic:
It’s pretty well known at this point that relief pitchers perform better than starting pitchers, as the ability to air it out for 15-20 pitches leads to increased velocity and better stuff for most pitchers. Additionally, relievers more often face same-handed hitters, so they get a larger advantage from platoon splits, and they hardly ever face the same batter more than once in a game. These advantages add up in a hurry, which is why quality relief pitchers can sustain performances that even the best starters can’t come close to.Cameron notes that there are some exceptions like Justin Verlander I believe we are all in agreement that Joe Saunders and Justin Verlander aren't in the same ballpark...it ain't the same league, it ain't even the same fuckin' sport. While I would love to see the Orioles or any team in the one game playoff use the skip the starter strategy, I don't see Showalter, bucking the trend (see what I did there?) of using a traditional starter and facing a better team with a better opposing pitcher. I'm calling the Rangers on this one.
Cameron's initial post on skipping the starter talked about the Braves benefit of doing so, but since that won't happen Kris Medlen will be facing Kyle Lohse tomorrow. If you consider yourself a baseball fan and haven't heard of Kris Medlen then you've either been living under a rock or simply lost track of the season as it went on for several months. Either way, check out his numbers since entering the rotation on July 31 - 12 starts, 9-0, 83.2 IP, 0.97 ERA, 84 SO, 10 BB - prettay, prettay good. Lohse isn't too shabby himself, posting a 2.86 ERA in 211 IP although with a less sexy 3.96 xFIP. In the end, Medlen and the Braves with one of the best bullpens in the league get an edge over the Cardinals for me.
And that's my two cents (or $20.00 based on length) on tomorrow's games. Luckily luck plays a role in all of this - if every team that should win actually won, sports wouldn't be much fun.
No comments:
Post a Comment