2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot has been released by the Baseball Writers Association of America which means two things:

1. A lot of bickering on the internet.
2. A splendid analysis of everyone on the ballot by yours truly.
3. A reminder of how outdated the BWAA website is. 

If you're interested in my previous ballot, check it out here. 

Without further ado!

Sandy Alomar Jr.: No. For a four-year stretch in the 90's, on those awesome Cleveland teams Sandy Alomar Jr. was a very solid, albeit part-time catcher. From 1994-1997 Alomar Jr. averaged a .294/.332/.478 line. Very solid from the catcher position but unfortunately Alomar Jr. didn't achieve much after that. However, since 2009 Alomar Jr. has been a coach on the Indians so there is still plenty of time for him to get a managerial position, win a bunch of World Series titles and enter the Hall as a coach. Maybe.  

This is gross. 

Jeff Bagwell: Yes. This will be Bagwell's third year on the ballot. In 2011 Bagwell received 41.7% of the votes and last year that was upped to 56%. It's an encouraging trend but it's a shame that it's even a discussion as Bagwell is simply one of the best and most dynamic first basemen to ever play the game. Although he played in the "steroid" era his career OPS+ (which adjust for league and park effects) was an astounding 149. He has a Rookie of the Year award and a MVP. The 1994 strike also cut short one of the best seasons ever by a first basemen. In 110 games Bagwell batted .368/.451/.750. His OPS+ was over 200 (213), a number that's only been topped by Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. Pretty good company. His per 162 games played would have given Bagwell 57 HR, 170 RBI and 153 Runs. Nobody enters the Hall of Fame because of one season (Roger Maris) but Bagwell was great his entire career, he deserves to have a speech at Cooperstown. 

Craig Biggio: Yes. If the writers were waiting for Biggio to get on the ballot before voting in Bagwell so the two of them could enter together then I will forgive them for shamelessly leaving Bagwell off. Anywho, back to Biggio...Although he was more of a stats accumulator in the second half of his career, Biggio was still a fantastic player deserving to enter the Hall with 3,060 hits 291 HR, 414 stolen bases and an OPS+ of 112. From 1993-1999 Biggio averaged .303/.397/.473 with 116 runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI and 34 SB. Not bad.

A slimmer Bonds

Barry Bonds: Yes. Barry Lamar Bonds' chances lie in how the voters feel about those pesky little steroids. I personally don't put my moral hat on and blame players for using substances that they had every incentive to use but I guess to each his own. Before using steroids Bonds' was the best player in the game and after using steroids Bonds was the best player of all time. We all know about his fantastic resume but here are some interesting tidbits:

• In 2004 Bonds was intentionally walked 120 times. In 2012 Adam Dunn led all of baseball with 105 walks.
• From 2001-2004 Bonds averaged .349/.559/.809.
• Bonds has 7 MVPs with three coming from 1993 or earlier.
• In his last season at age 42 in 2007 Bonds had a .480 OBP, an OPS over 1.000 and a 169 OPS+. 
• Bonds has 514 stolen bases which is more than Roberto Alomar, Eric Young, Delino Deshields and Ichiro. 

Hey voters, please get off your high horse and vote the guy in. 

Jeff Cirillo: No. On Colorado in 2000, Jeff Cirillo had 53 doubles and he didn't lead the league because his teammate Todd Helton had 59. Cirillo was a two time all-star, knew how to get on-base and seemed to be an all around good guy but a Hall of Famer he is not. 

Royce Clayton: No. Clayton played for 17 years in the big leagues on 11 different teams which is quite an accomplishment but probably not quite as cool as playing Miguel Tejada in Moneyball.

Roger Clemens: Yes. The pitching version of Barry Bonds and like Bonds, one could make a case that Clemens is the best at his position of all time and a likely Hall of Famer if his career ended before taking steroids. At this point debating the legitimacy of Clemens' Hall of Fame case is boring, really boring. A more exciting topic is debating Clemens vs. Maddux.  Who do you choose? 

Jeff Conine: No. The Marlins have never won a title without Mr. Marlin himself so one has to wonder if the Marlins would break up the team this year if they had a 46-year old Conine chilling in the dugout. In 2001 on the Orioles Jeff Conine hit .311 with 14 HR, 97 RBI  and 12 steals. In 2002 a naive Ben Pasinkoff drafted him onto his fantasy team thinking he could repeat that. In 2003 Ben felt vindicated when Conine belted 20 HR with 95 RBI. In 2004 Ben stopped thinking about Jeff Conine until now. 

Steve Finley: No. In 2004 some people complimented the Angels for signing a 40-year old Steve Finley to a two-year $14 million deal to play CF instead of spending all of that money on Carlos Beltran. A few years later Finley was out of baseball. Steve Finley was a good player who went to Arizona in his 30s in 1999 with Luis Gonzalez and put together the best run of his career.  Like Luis Gonzalez he's not a HOFer but 300 career home runs and over 2,500 hits is nothing to sneeze about. 

Julio Franco: No. I was pulling for Julio to play until he was 50 years old but he only managed to play until he was 48 years. Franco played in parts of 23 seasons, coming up as a shortstop on the Phillies and Indians and finishing as a pinch hitting first basemen on the Braves. There are many players who have had better careers than Julio Franco but I can't imagine many who have had a more interesting one. 

After the strike in 1994, a 34 year-old Franco went to play in Japan, returning to the major leagues for the 1996 season. In 1997, now at 38 years of age, Franco looked finished and returned to Japan for the 1998 season. In 1999 Franco managed to get one at bat with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (as they were called at the time) but was back playing ball overseas, this time in South Korea in 2000. The following year, a 43 year old Franco was in the Mexican League batting .437 with 18 HR in 110 games which was good enough to get back to the Majors this time with the Atlanta Braves. Franco was then with the Braves as a defensive replacement and pinch-hitter until 2005. For the 2006 season the Mets did a move that only the Mets would do, handing out a 2-year contract to a 47 year old player. Franco played on the Mets in 2006 and was released the following year before finishing up with the Braves in 2007. 

Considering he played until age 48, Franco's career average of .298 is quite impressive. If nothing else, Franco's story deserves to be told in Cooperstown. #NeverForget

Shawn Green: No. As a Jew who played RF and fantasy baseball, it's hard to come by a cooler player to root for then Shawn Green. While he shouldn't make the Hall, Shawn Green should take solace in the fact that he's in my personal Hall of Awesome. 

I thought this would
make me rich.

Roberto Hernandez: No. Since Ben Grieve and I shared the same name and played the same position, you could imagine how much I loved him as a kid. I made sure to collect ALL of his baseball cards. Especially the rookie cards, I loved the rookie cards because he was going to be a star and I was going to follow his coattails to the bank. After winning the ROY in year 1998 I held onto my Ben Grieves for dear life. He was going to be a star. At least until he was traded to Tampa Bay in a three-team deal to Kansas City that got Johnny Damon to Oakland. Then Ben Grieve was mediocreand I grew up and stopped collecting baseball cards. So is life. 

What does this have to do with Roberto Hernandez? He was involved in that three-team trade, and his connection to my former favorite player is the most interesting part of his career.  For me. 

I have this card somewhere. 

Ryan Klesko: No. Ryan Klesko was ranked the 3rd best prospect in Baseball America's Pre-1991 Rankings. In their Pre-1994 Rankings Klesko was ranked 15th. In 1994 Klesko finished third in the ROY voting putting up a solid 130 OPS+ in 92 games. In 1995 Klesko only played in 107 games but hit. 310/.396/.608 with a 158 OPS+ at age 24 and also hit 3 home runs in the World Series for the Braves .  Klesko seemed to have star potential but unfortunately was never able to stay on the field for 150 games and only made one all-star game in his career (2001 with San Diego). Klesko finished his career batting .279/.370/.500 with a 128 OPS+ over the course of 16 seasons, which is pretty darn good but will sadly go down in history as a forgotten slugger. 

Kenny Lofton: No. But gosh darn it did I almost say yes. It was really a coin-flip although I never actually flipped a coin. Lofton finished his career hitting .299/.372/.423 with 2,428 hits. His 66.2 fWAR ranks 14th all time among center fielders and ahead of Carlos Beltran and Andre Dawson. Lofton set the table for those superbly awesome Indians lineups in the 90s that I mentioned with Sandy Alomar Jr. and at his peak, Lofton was one of the most exciting players in the game leading the league in steals from 1992-1996. Like so many other players, Lofton's best season was cutoff in 1994 when he hit .349/.412/.536 with 60 SB in 112 games. You just don't see too many 20 HR/80 SB seasons (Ricky Henderson in 1985 and 1986; Eric Davis 1986). While I wish this won't be the last time we talk about Kenny Lofton and won't argue with anyone who puts him on their ballot, he just missed the cut for me. I obviously don't have a vote but you are only allowed to vote for 10 players and with this being Lofton's first year I have to pass. 
  
Edgar Martinez: Yes. Yes, Edgar played DH but I don't know of any rule that precludes someone from making the Hall of Fame if they didn't play the field. If Edgar played in the NL or simply butchered it at 1b, we wouldn't care and we would gush about his hitting stats. I say we just cut to the chase and just gush about his hitting stats.  Check for yourself. 

Don Mattingly: No. Donnie Baseball is a Hall of Fame nickname and I'd like to think it's the grandfather of Johnny Football. 

Whole milk > Skim milk

Fred McGriff: No. As I said last year, I don't believe in arbitrary milestones to merit automatic inclusion into the Hall, so even if The Crime Dog had 500 HR I still wouldn't put him in. However, speaking of Hall of Fame nicknames, The Crime Dog might just top the list. And there is always this. 

Mark McGwire: Yes. I can only judge a player for what they did on the field and Mark McGwire, although incredibly one-dimensional, was one of the best ever at that dimension - 583 HR and a 162 OPS+.

Jose Mesa: No. In 1995 Jose Mesa saved 46 games with a 1.13 ERA. He finished 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting and 4th for MVP. By 1997 he was no longer closing games. Then from 2001-2005 from ages 35-39 Jose Mesa saved 36 games a year for the Phillies. Lesson: Relievers are pretty fickle. 

Jack Morris: No. If you want to believe that a pitcher would pitch to the score, hurting his ERA and his earning potential that's fine. I don't and I don't believe Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer. 

Dale Murphy: No. This is Murphy's last year on the ballot and with only 14.5% of the vote last year it looks like his only chances will be with the Veterans Committee. The Hall of the Very Good

Only you can prevent forest fires.

Rafael Palmeiro: No. His Viagra commercial isn't the main reason why I wouldn't vote him in but it certainly didn't help. I take Fielding practice, I take hitting practice, I take Viagra...and steroids. Still, I'm not holding it against him that he was caught with steroids, I prefer peak value to longevity and Palmeiro was a very solid 1b for many years, but not quite good enough to make it for me. 

Mike Piazza: Yes. Piazza should be remembered for being one of the best hitting catchers of all time and having to say that he's not gay. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Piazza might be one of the worst fielding catchers and base runners we've ever seen but he also has the most HR and the highest wRC+ at the position. Gay or not and regardless of his bacne, he's a Hall of Famer. 

Tim Raines: Yes.  I feel that Tim Raines is like Kenny Lofton but 5% better, so he makes it onto my ballot. If you need to be convinced that he's worthy, check this out. 

Reggie Sanders: No. Along with Steve Finley mentioned above, Reggie Sanders is one of six players to have 300 HR and 300 SB. Along with Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders isn't a Hall of Famer. 

Curt Schilling: Yes. It's an understatement to say I'm not his biggest fan but he's also one of the best pitchers of all time. If you care about Wins and Losses to the point where you won't vote in Schilling then you are simply missing the point and probably want Jack Morris in Cooperstown. Schilling ranks 19th of all time with 86.1 fWAR and is 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 post season innings pitched. 

Aaron Sele: No. Aaron Sele threw 2153 innings with a 100 ERA+. He is the definition of the average pitcher. 

It's so real!

Lee Smith: No. When Smith first came on the ballot he had the most saves of all time. Now he's third. Either way, he wasn't a Hall of Famer. 

Sammy Sosa: No. It's easy to lump Sosa and McGwire together, but McGwire was clearly the better hitter. In 2,236 fewer plate appearances McGwire has 388 more walks. A young Sosa did add a lot of value in the field and a little on the base paths, but he more or less hit home runs and nothing else. Sosa's career OPS+ is 128. Adam Dunn? 126. 

Mike Stanton: No. Giancarlo Mike Stanton might be here in 20 years but the lefty doesn't belong. 

I have this in my attic. I think.

Alan Trammell: Yes. We can't hold SS to the same standards as other positions. Trammell is one of the best at the position of all time and deserves it.

Larry Walker: No. Much like the past two years, this was a tough one but I have to pass. It's also required to mention his 1997 season: 366 average, 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals. #FantasyGold. 

Todd Walker: No. In 1996 at AAA Todd Walker hit .339 with 28 HR. In 1998 Todd Walker became the Twins starting second basemen and hit .316/.372/.473 at 25 years old. Walker stuck around for a while longer playing subpar defense and hitting about league average at second, but he never surpassed his first full season.  

David Wells: No. David Wells pitching for the 1998 Yankees was easily the pinnacle of my Yankees child-like fandom. After going 18-4 I was shocked that the Yankees would trade Boomer, Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush for that Roger Clemens guy. Homer Bush! After hitting .380 in a grand total of 71 at bats, twelve year old Ben was convinced that Homer Bush was the future. When he hit .320 the following year on Toronto I was even more convinced. When he hit .215 in 2000 as the Yankees won their third consecutive World Series, I was happy we had the Rocket. Still, Homer Bush!

Rondell White: No. A tools-y top prospect who never quite put it all together but still had a 15-year career as an above average regular. Not bad. 

Bernie Williams: No. Bernabe had a Hall of Fame-esque peak --from 1995-2002 he hit .321/.406/.531 with a 142 OPS+ for many a championship team. However, Bernie basically fell apart after age 33 which isn't uncommon but his peak, although very solid, simply wasn't good or long enough. However, if one wants to give credit to post-career music success, then Bernie is a first balloter. 

Woody Williams: No. Williams threw 2,216.1 innings with a 103 ERA+. He's 3 % better than the average pitcher. Or 3% better than Aaron Sele. 

Recap:
Yeses: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, McGwire, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell 
Close Calls But Nos: Kenny Lofton, Larry Walker
Why the F*ck are you on the ballot: Mike Stanton

Early Evening Roundup

- The Dodgers are acting like the George Steinbrenner era Yankees on steroids. Now we know why:

"it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal"

After they sign Zack Greinke who knows what will follow.
 
- Or maybe it's amphetamines because that's what Carlos Ruiz uses, who's now suspended for the first 25 games next year.

- The Mets are in serious talks with David Wright about an extension:

sources: Mets' offer to David Wright is 7 years about $135-140M
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 27, 2012

This is a smart move. It's rare that teams get top value in deals like this, but the Mets need to put something on the field. R.A. Dickey is too old to be around for the-next-great-Mets-team and would be a good guy to dangle in trade talks at peak value. However, David Wright should still be a solid player for a little while to help out, and if the extension can double to make the Mets look respectable in the short term then it's a win-win. Unless they're broke, in which case this is stupid. They might be broke.

- Back from Tommy John surgery, Ryan Madson is healthy and signed a deal with the Angels. Madson should help back end of the Angels bullpen with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs and might even be in line for some saves. I'm sure this will all be in the Bullpen Reports in a few months on RotoGraphs.

- The Red Sox are very busy as they have been linked with Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli and now a trade with the Royals based around Wil Myers for Jon Lester. I like Lester to have a bounce-back year and the Royals need frontline pitching but I'd take 6 years of Wil Myers over two expensive years from Lester any day of the week.

2013 Fantasy Baseball: Top Ten

There will be plenty of fantasy baseball posts from BBB this offseason and it starts with the top 10. These rankings are assuming the standard 5 X 5 categories.

The Big Boys

1.) Ryan Braun: .313/34/107/102/21 - that's what Ryan Braun has averaged over the course of his six-year career. And if that's not enough for you Braun has managed to increase his stolen base output by averaging over 30 steals the last two seasons. Braun is as consistent as they come and doubles as one of fantasy baseball's true five-category players. 23 players stole 30 bases last year and from that group four hit 20 or more home runs (Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton), two hit 30 or more home runs (Mike Trout) and only Ryan Braun eclipsed the 40 home run barrier. Relying on Braun to steal 30+ bags a year as he enters his age 29 season might be a little irresponsible but if Braun never stole another base he would still rank as one of the best fantasy hitters in the game.

BBB's Guesstimator: .310/35/110/105/25

2.) Miguel Cabrera: What Miggy lacks in speed he makes up for in winning triple crowns and playing in the American League to help his RBI total. If anyone were to be more consistent than Ryan Braun it's Miggy.  If you were to take his worst numbers from the last four years you would get a .324/30/105/96 line, which is still phenomenal and basically on par with what Adrian Beltre did this year and he was a top 15 player. That's Miguel Cabrera at his worst. For shits and gigs, if you take his best numbers of the last four years you would get a .344/44/139/11 behemoth. The chances are Miggy does something in between and finishes in the top five because that's just what he does. Oh, and I almost forgot, he plays third base.

BBB's Guesstimator: .330/38/120/110/3

Miggy/Braun, Braun/Miggy the order doesn't really matter - if you grab one of these guys with your first pick you won't regret it.

The Natural

3.) Mike Trout: If there is an argument to be made about drafting someone other than Miggy or Braun with the first pick then you're looking at it. Mike Trout led all of baseball in stolen bases and runs last year all while missing most of April. He also managed to find time in his busy schedule to chip in a mere 30 home runs and 83 RBI while batting .326. Not. Too. Shabby. Historically, nobody compares to Trout and that's partially why I have him ranked third. We just don't quite know what to expect other than the fact that he's going to be very, very good. Trout hit 30 homers last year in 139 games but can we expect him to maintain a 21.6% HR/FB on par with Josh Willingham, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera?  At only 21 years old Trout certainly has room to grow but he can also regress. It's the yin and yang with analyzing Mike Trout for 2013. Our brains struggle to comprehend how he could possibly improve yet intellectually we understand that ball players don't peak at 20 years old.

BBB's Guesstimator: .315/26/80/130/55

There are two things I'm sure about regarding Mike Trout for fantasy baseball:

1.) He's going to be good.

2.) The third pick is the best pick in the draft this year. At worst you're "stuck" with the best young player we've ever seen. 

Remember Us? We're Healthy Now. 

4.) Matt Kemp: After getting snubbed in the NL MVP voting in 2011 Kemp vowed to go into "beast mode" in 2012. He didn't disappoint, at least not early on when he hit .417/.490/.893 with 12 HR and 25 RBI in April. Unfortunately Kemp had some hamstring issues that put him on the DL throughout 2012 and he only played in 106 games hitting .303/.367/.538 with 23 HR, 69 RBI and 9 steals. Kemp's hamstrings clearly affected his ability to steal bases but his per 162 game averages of 35 HR and 105 RBI were nothing to sneeze about in 2012. I fully expect Kemp to hit like has over the last two years with the stolen base output being a little bit of a wild card as he's gone up and down from 34 steals to 19 to 41 to 9 over the last four years. Like Braun and Trout, Kemp is a true 5 category monster and he deserves to be ranked this high even with a few warts.

BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/110/100/25

5.) Joey Votto: Votto would certainly be more valuable in an OBP fantasy league where he's averaged a .429 OBP over the last four years, but he's still plenty good enough to rank fifth on my list. Votto isn't likely to match the 37 HR he had in 2010 but not many players hit the ball as hard and as often as Votto does, always ranking among the league leaders in LD%.  Votto can run a little at first base and in the middle of a solid Reds lineup will consistently put up solid Runs and RBI totals.

BBB's Guesstimator: .325/25/110/100/10

Entering the Prime

6.) Robinson Cano: Since 2007 the least amount of games that Cano has played in has been 159. The dude just doesn't miss games and has seen his ISO (Isolated Power) increase over the last five seasons as well. Cano still doesn't steal any bases but his increased power and consistency has made up for it in my mind. Cano had the best year of his fine career in 2012 and I fully expect him to build on that in 2013. Cano would merit a high pick if he played first base, the fact that he's doing it at second base makes him one of fantasy baseball's best.

BBB's Guesstimator: .315/33/100/100/5

7.) Andrew McCutchen: Like Cano, McCutchen had a career year last year and we might be seeing more where that came from. Long considered a 5-Tool player, McCutchen put it all together with the bat last year setting career highs in batting average (.327), home runs (31), RBI (96) and runs (107). McCutchen's always been a bit of an enigma on the bases, never being a particular good base stealer with his speed. Last year he was only 20/32 on stolen base attempts but speed is often something that is sacrificed with an increase in power and fantasy owners will surely take the tradeoff that McCutchen is making.

BBB's Guesstimator: .285/24/90/100/24

8.) Carlos Gonzalez: No player is perfect and Carlos Gonzalez is no exception. He doesn't stay on the field for 162 games, he struggles against lefties and he has noticeable home/road splits. With that said, he's still one the premier 5 category hitters. CarGo might have peaked at age 24 in his first full season (2010) but he's in his prime age (27) and gets to call Colorado his home. Also, with Petco moving the fences in, Gonzalez should improve upon his .683 OPS in San Diego. At worst CarGo will miss some time and provide positive value in every hitting category. At best he could be the fantasy MVP.  You decide.

BBB's Guesstimator: .305/29/95/95/20

Fat Albert

9.) Albert Pujols: 

April - May: .243/.290/.408

June - October: .307/.370/.571

Any questions? It's Albert Pujols.

BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/105/110/5

Someone Has To Pitch

10.) Justin Verlander: It's common to draft hitting over pitching and it's certainly not a flawed methodology but every year pitchers rank among the most valuable in fantasy baseball. I personally still may pass on Verlander if I had the 10th pick but chances are Verlander will be that pitcher this year. If you haven't noticed, Verlander's been simply brilliant the past two years averaging 20 wins, 244 Ks, 245 IP, 2.52 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. Pretty, Pretty good.

BBB's Guesstimator: 18 wins, 235 IP, 235 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Quick Thoughts

Some quick hits for your lunch break:

• Evan Longoria is going to be in Tampa for a long, long time after signing an extension until 2022. Regardless of their market size, more and more teams are holding onto their best players (Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, etc.) and that can only be a good thing for baseball. Even if it hurts the Yankees.
• Every year Bill Simmons does his NBA Trade Value column and recently Dave Cameron has done his own excellent MLB version. As far as I'm concerned the more the merrier when it comes to articles like this, so Jonah Keri's first MLB Trade Value Rankings for Grantland gets my recommendation. 
• The market for Nick Swisher is starting to work itself out. The Yankees aren't in play but the Red Sox, Braves and Giants are all in talks. I guessed that Swisher would sign with the Red Sox due to his ability to play RF (along with 1B which is also a need for Boston) and that might be the direction they go. 
• B.J. Upton is going to make a decision this week on where he will sign. The Braves and Phillies are expected to be in the running, with the Nationals also likely in the mix with a CF need. If he signs with the Braves, one has to wonder if they will go for an Upton-Upton-Heyward outfield.
• The Dodgers don't care about payroll and legitimately might be the new Yankees, or at least the Yankees west of baseball. That means they will likely sign Zack Greinke and not stop there. At this point everything has to be considered on the table for LA. 

Quick Thoughts: Tuesday, November 18

Some quick links & tidbits for your afternoon pleasure that I'll probably update throughout the day:

• Rob Neyer sums up baseball analysis succinctly in this piece by Lynn Hennig:

"It's really simple," Neyer said during a phone conversation. "All we're trying to do is count as many things as we can count to tell us how good a player is, or how good he can be. It's not really all that complicated.

Now what is so bad about that?

• Melky Cabrera signed with the Blue Jays for two-years $16 million. Honestly, I have to say this is a good deal for all parties involved. Melky isn't likely to be the MVP level player he was for the Giants last year but he was pretty darn good in 2011 on the Royals as well. And even if Melky can't achieve that level of performance the Blue Jays aren't investing all that much - $8 million per season for an every day outfielder who can log some time into center and who has the potential to play at a near all-star level is a solid deal. As for Melky, he has two years to reestablish himself for another contract, when he'll still be under 30 years old. 

• If everyone who didn't like the use of sabermetrics in baseball was this honest there wouldn't be the great divide that Mitch Albomination speaks of. 

• David Cone is my favorite announcer on YES, and it's great to read his Q & A with David Laurila of FanGraphs.

UPDATE 12:15

• The Royals re-signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year $25 million deal. Guthrie did pitch well in12 starts last year in Kansas City and eating innings is a valuable commodity, but spending $25 million on borderline journeymen just isn't how you build a winning club. Steroids be damned, I'd rather roll the dice with a Bartolo Colon for $3 million like the A's did than $25 million for Jeremy Guthrie. Anytime you have a chance to spend $38 million on Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana you have to do it. #2013Royals

UPDATE 1:10

• The Mets are trying to re-sign R.A. Dickey and David Wright which is certainly better than just letting them walk like Jose Reyes. Breaking everything up isn't necessarily the smartest decision but I wonder if re-signing them is the best course of action. The Mets already have a young and promising rotation so if Dickey and/or Wright could fetch some positional prospects then something could be brewing in Queens. 

FJM: Mitch Albom

If his Tuesday's were anything like this then I would feel bad for Morrie. 

Mitch Albom's latest gem is deserving of the FJM Treatment. 

Miguel Cabrera's award a win for fans, defeat for stats geeks

NL Most Valuable Player

My ballot:

"$20 says I'll win the MVP and your ERA is over 5" 

1. Buster Posey

2. Yadier Molina

3. Ryan Braun

4. Andrew McCutchen

I promise this isn't based off of how each individual team finished, even though it may appear that way. If you've read some of my stuff you know I don't care about team performance for an individual award. 

I also promise that it's not based just on WAR. Buster Posey did lead the NL with 8.0 fWAR but Ryan Braun (7.9), McCutchen (7.4) both finished with a better number than Yadier Molina (6.5).

My basis for Posey has the same logic to my choice of Mike Trout for AL MVP - choosing the player who both hit and fielded a tough position. 

Ryan Braun led the NL in homers, OPS and finished second in RBI so clearly he was the best hitter, right?

Eh, not necessarily. Remember that pesky little thing called context? 

	OPS+	wRC+
Braun	159	162
Posey	172	162

Ryan Braun had a great year at the plate. No doubt. So did Buster Posey. Buster Posey also played behind the plate, catching 114 games. I think we have a winner!

This isn't necessarily an easy call like the AL MVP, but I do believe the clear choice is Buster Posey. 

AL Most Valuable Player

Ever since the possibility of a Miguel Cabrera Triple Crown emerged late in the season, people have been debating the American League Most Valuable Player Award. What started as a hypothetical (if Miggy wins the Triple Crown, is he the MVP?) became a reality as Miguel Cabrera actually won the American League Triple Crown, the first since Carl Yastrzemski (I can spell Roethlisberger at this point, but I had to look that one up) in 1967.

But you already knew all that - so let's get started.

The Case For Miggy

This one is pretty simple. Miguel Cabrera led the league in Home Runs (44), RBI (139) and Batting Average (.330) en route to the Triple Crown. With those stats one could make a very strong case that he was the best hitter in the American League (i.e. baseball) especially considering he also led in Slugging and OPS.

Miguel Cabrera's team also made the playoffs and played very well down the stretch hitting .333/.395/.675 with 11 homers in September. 

The Case For Trout

This one is also simple. Mike Trout hit .326/.399/.564 and led the league in stolen bases (49) runs (129) and OPS+ (171).  And that's just with the bat and legs as Trout also played a mean CF. Add it up and Trout led all of baseball in fWAR (10.0).

The Choice

Miguel Cabrera had a MVP-type season but he's no Mike Trout. Winning the Triple Crown is an awesome achievement and it will go down in history but it doesn't have to translate to being the best player in the league or the most valuable player in the league. Miguel Cabrera  led the AL in three arbitrary hitting stats but he wasn't necessarily even the best hitter in the AL. 

Let me explain. Context is pretty important as all parks aren't created equal. We know about Coors Field and Petco Park and how different their hitting environments are. Well, while Comerica Park (Detroit) and the Angel Stadium of Anaheim don't have as stark of a difference they are clearly different hitting environments. Comerica is often thought of as a pitchers park but that reputation isn't based on fact since it actually leans towards being a hitters park. The Angels Park meanwhile has been quite the pitchers park, previous reputations be damned.

Miguel Cabrera led the league in OPS, but every OPS isn't created equal. If we look at Adjusted OPS, or OPS+ which accounts for the league and park that you play in, we find that Mike Trout led the league (171) with Miguel Cabrera finishing second (165). Further, if we use other adjusted hitting stats, like wRC+ we find that both Miggy and Trout led the league with 166 wRC+.

Considering that Mike Trout plays a more demanding position, and plays it exceedingly well, the case for Miggy relies on his bat. When you then realize that Miggy's bat wasn't actually any better than Mike Trout, the case for Miggy falls apart...

Unless you care more about the 'intangibles' and the fact that the Tigers made the playoffs with Miggy playing well down the stretch while the Angels missed out on post-season baseball with a struggling Trout. I'll admit, it is a fact that the Tigers made the playoffs. It's also a fact that the Angels had more wins in a tougher division. While Miggy played great in September (180 wRC+), Trout was no slouch (152 wRC+).

All else equal, team record could be a deciding factor but all else isn't equal. It's not even close. Mike Trout hits better, plays a tougher position, plays it better and runs the bases better than anyone in baseball.

I'd love to say case closed, but unfortunately the feeling is that Miggy is going to win the award. The other feeling is that in 10 years we will look back on this debate and wonder while it even occurred.

UPDATE: Still not convinced Trout had a better season at the plate? Check this out.

UPDATE 3:16 PM: Maybe you don't agree with me, but what about Nate Silver?

Cy Young Award

If I shared my thoughts on manager of the year, I believe that obligates me to give a few cents on the Cy Young Award. Without further ado...

American League

Jered Weaver, David Price and Justin Verlander all had excellent years, so it's no surprise they are the finalists for the AL Cy Young Award. However, I view this as a two-man race between Price and Verlander. On the surface, Jered Weaver had a certified bad-ass year going 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA but he also only threw 188.2 innings. David Price also had 20 wins but did it with a league leading 2.56 ERA in 211 innings pitched. Justin Verlander only received 17 wins but had a 2.64 ERA in a league leading 238.1 innings pitched. Weaver pitched well and his 20 wins certainly means something but it's hard to say he pitched better than Price who also had 20 wins with a better ERA. It's also hard to say he deserved three more wins than Verlander considering last year's winner threw 49.2 more innings with a better ERA.

Price v. Verlander

Price: 20-5, 211 IP, 2.56/3.05/3.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 77 FIP-, 7.2 RA9-Wins, 8.74 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 53.1% GB% 5.1 fWAR

Verlander: 17-8, 238.1 IP, 2.64/2.94/3.31ERA/FIP/xFIP, 70 FIP-, 7.6 RA9-Wins, 9.03 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 42.3% GB%, 6.8 fWAR

This is a nice little battle. Price wins a few classic stats and advanced stats and Verlander wins a few classic stats and advanced stats, One would be silly to use WAR as an end all be all number, but it's interesting that Verlander's total is more than an insignificant amount higher than Price. Also,  if we use Baseball Reference WAR Price comes in at 6.4 and Verlander 7.6 - Verlander still is higher, but less so. Anywho, the point isn't to say Verlander more WAR, therefore Verlander better. The point is to ask, well why does Verlander have a higher WAR?

Verlander struck out more batters while walking fewer than Price, but Price also killed a lot more worms with the ground ball compared to Verlander. On a per pitch basis, Verlander and Price were pretty similar in value but Verlander threw 27.1 more innings than Price. That has a lot of value and it shows up in the totals, whether you use fWAR, bWAR or RA9 Wins. It might be boring to give the Award to Verlander again, and it sure is nice to see an even 20 next to the win column for David Price but Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the AL this year and he's my choice for AL Cy Young. Again.

National League

Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez and R.A. Dickey.

R.A. Dickey led the league in strikeouts and innings pitched and finished second in ERA (2.73) and wins (20). Who had more wins? Gio Gonzalez with 21. Who had a better ERA? Clayton Kershaw with a 2.53 ERA.

What about the advanced numbers, we love the advanced numbers!

Well, now I'm not sure what to think. It seems to be a three-headed race but I did forgot to mention innings pitched. Well, I mentioned how Dickey led the league (233.2) but I failed to mention how Kershaw threw 227.2 innings and that Gio Gonzalez finished well below the two of them with 199.1 innings. The best thing a pitcher can do is not give up runs, the next best thing a pitcher can do is that over a lot of innings, so although Gonzalez had a fantastic year, like Weaver his lack of innings pitched hurts him here. Alas, another two man battle!

Ten years ago this would be a pretty obvious win. R.A. Dickey has the awesome story and the stats to back it up - 20 wins and a 2.73 ERA. It's cool that Kershaw led the league in ERA but he only won 14 games. 14 games! 

Luckily, or unfortunately since I do love the Dickey story, we know that wins don't really tell us anything valuable about a pitcher. Dickey had a damn good year and there are some intriguing ways to argue his case but sadly, I have to choose Kershaw for NL CY Young. 

R.A. Dickey had a Cy Young year but Clayton Kershaw was just a smidgen better. Most of the time, I'll get slightly annoyed if the voters don't agree with me, but in this case, even though I would vote for Kershaw I want Dickey to win - it's just been that fun of a year watching him pitch. 

So, Kershaw and Verlander, just like last year. Boring but appropriate. Now let's hope we get a knuckleball and Dickey wins the award! 

Loria Being Loria

Less than a year ago, after already having signed Jose Reyes to a $100+ million deal, the newly branded Miami Marlins were rumored to have offered Albert Pujols a 10-year deal for over $200 million. The Marlins obviously didn't end up with Pujols but they still had an un-Marlins-esque offseason spending spree, signing Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle as they entered their brand spanking new (and publicly funded) stadium. Say what you will about the the Florida Marlins, the Miami Marlins were here to spend and win.

Fast forward a few months to July and the Marlins, off to a rough start unloaded Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and a few other pieces in separate trades. Fast forward a few more months to, well, only a few hours ago and the Marlins made yet another blockbuster trade, sending Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio to the Toronto Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar and a few compelling prospects. 

I don't know if the Marlins are clearing space to hit the reset button and make a run at other free agents or trade for an Alex Rodriguez or what exactly, but one thing is clear, the Miami Marlins are still acting like the Florida Marlins. At this point one has to ask, why would any high ranking player want to sign a long-term contract or extension with the Marlins who have shown no commitment to their players with or without a new stadium. #LoriaBeingLoria 

There are now Ricky Nolasco trade rumors too which can't be considered surprise given his contract but with nobody else around and no integrity to consistently try to field a good team, what incentive does Mike Stanton have to stay in Miami. Is he next to go?

Jose Reyes signed with Miami thinking he would play on a contender for six years, many with Hanley Ramirez. Now Jose Reyes is playing in Toronto and Ramirez is in Los Angeles. 

If I was playing a video game, this type firesale would be an appropriate and likely smart move. In the video game. But Jeffrey Loria isn't playing a video game, this is real life and one has to wonder what baseball will look like in Miami in the future. Winning sells but the Marlins have two World Series titles in 15 years and couldn't fill their brand new facility. The few Marlins fans left have to be debating their loyalty to the franchise right now because they know the ownership has none to the fanbase.  At this point, will Bud Selig get involved? It's hard to rationalize Loria still owning the Marlins. Mark Cuban has to be better than this, no?

What To Make Of Grady Sizemore

The following is a guest post from FanDuel.com. I hope you enjoy!

A few seasons ago, the Cleveland Indians had their hands on one of the most promising players in all of baseball. Grady Sizemore was a budding five-tool player capable of being an anchor on a playoff team. Not only was he a solid player on the field, but he was a marketable person that fans (especially women) flocked to the ballpark to see.

Fast forward to 2012. Sizemore seems almost like an afterthought in the free agent market. This is a guy many predicted would be getting a nine-figure payday at some point in his career and be a superstar of daily fantasy sports. The question now is, should teams even take a risk on Sizemore?

Now 30 years of age, the former gold glover is not being counted on by many inside baseball to ever regain that potential that he showed early on. That does not mean he can’t be an every day player in baseball though, so teams should definitely be taking a good hard look at him.

In 2012, Sizemore had back surgery in March. The original diagnosis was for him to miss 8-12 weeks, but a knee injury also developed during rehab. That kept Sizemore on the shelf for the rest of the season, which means teams have very little to go off of.

With 104 games played in the past three seasons, including none in 2012, Sizemore has turned from an expensive gamble to a guy that should be cheap to acquire and take a chance on. One team that could end up being a perfect fit for him would be the Yankees. They are a team looking to slash payroll, and he could platoon for them at a corner outfield position. The Indians look like they will try to hold onto Sizemore as well, but they would most likely only offer a minor league contract with the opportunity to make the MLB club.

It has certainly been a long fall for Sizemore, but if he is finally healthy and ready to start playing baseball again, a one year deal with solid production could be just what he needs to get a decent payday next offseason.

Manager of the Year

I don't really have many words for the manager of the year award as I both don't really care and don't assume any of y'all do either but I'll share a few thoughts...

As far as the award itself is concerned, manager of the year logic is very closely associated to some MVP logic in that you need the following qualifications:

• Winning team. How can you be the most valuable if you're team doesn't win? While I have issue with that statement regarding the MVP, it's actually pretty appropriate with managers. It's hard to imagine someone being deserving of the award if their team didn't manage their team to a winning record. 
• Do a lot with less. Managers and players often get bonus points for winning (even at a lower rate) with less. The Yankees are supposed to win so Girardi won't get credit. Alternatively, you'll often hear people claim that LeBron James shouldn't be allowed to win the MVP award with a player of Dwyane Wade's caliber on his team. To each his own. 
• Difference Maker. If a team hires a different manager and that team improves, the manager will get credit. 

Now I don't necessarily agree with the above needing to be true in order for a player or manager to win some offseason hardware, but it certainly exists in people's minds. 

With that said, here are the choices:

American League

The finalists are Buck Showalter, Bob Melvin and Robin Ventura. Melvin and Showalter led their teams to the postseason while Ventura missed, finishing three games behind the Tigers. In a vacuum that shouldn't exclude Ventura, but in a weak division with a pretty good team he should get a nice pat on the back but not an award. 

Showalter's as deserving as anyone, leading the lowly Orioles back to the postseason and gets extra bonus points for managing the bullpen the way he did. Also, although I didn't expect either team to be playing in October, the A's won the division and finished with a much higher run differential (+99 compared to the O's +7). I suppose one could make the case that Buck's intangibles was the deciding factor in the Orioles winning all of those close games but in the end Melvin shuffled a young team to a division title over the perceived best team all year - Texas. Both are deserving, but I'd go Melvin, Showalter, skip a few lines, Ventura. 

National League

The finalists are Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy and Davey Johnson. Basically, if you won the division in the National League you'll have a chance to win manager of the year as Reds, Giants and Nationals all won their respective divisions. 

Unlike the American League where it was a close battle this one is pretty obvious for me - Davey Johnson. With no disrespect to Dusty Baker (although I bash him as often as he ruins pitching arms) and Bruce Bochy,  the Nationals finished with the best record and run differential in baseball all while losing their ace (Stephen Strasburg) for the stretch run, and losing Jayson Werth, Mike Morse and Ryan Zimmerman to injuries for long stretches. 

Also, Johnson showed his ability and flexibility in managing a bullpen turning to four separate closers during the course of the season (Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez, Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen).  If I had a vote I'd go Johnson, Baker, Bochy. 

UPDATE: Melvin and Johnson won - it looks like I'm agreeing with the voters! Although the real test will be  Trout v. Miggy. 

Rookie of the Year

Funky Buttloving!

Later today, Major League Baseball will announce the National League and American League Rookies of the Year. My take...

AL Rookie of the Year

Mike Trout.

With respect to Yoenis Cespedes (who looks like a potential cornerstone for Oakland) and Yu Darvish (a potential ace for Texas) Mike Trout is winning this award. I will surely have another post with more detail on Trout's year when we approach the MVP debate on Thursday but just know that Trout led the league in OPS+ (171), runs (129) and stolen bases (49). 'Nuff said? 

NL Rookie of the Year

This is a better discussion among finalists Bryce Harper, Wade Miley and Todd Frazier.

A case for Frazier:

Versatility having playing third base, first base and the outfield while also occasionally coming off the bench and playing for a winner.

A case for Miley:

16 wins, almost 200 innings pitched (194.2), 4.8 fWAR and a great ERA (3.33). Miley had a fantastic rookie campaign for the Diamondbacks who have the best problem in baseball - too many young pitchers. Ian Kennedy, Dan Hudson, Wade Miley, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Trevor Bauer all either have established success at the MLB level or come with fantastic pedigree. 

A case for Harper:

Harper did a little bit of everything for a first place team hitting for power (22 homers/.477 slugging), fielding his position (9.9 UZR) and running the bases (18 steals). Add it up and Harper had 4.9 fWAR. Not bad, especially considering he's 19 years old.

Todd Frazier is a nice piece to have on your team (reminds me of David Freese) but he played less and slightly worse than Miley and Harper. My head tells me that Harper is more deserving with the kicker being Miley's less than stellar 3.75 xFIP (due to a likely lucky 6.9% HR/FB%) and the fact that when push comes to shove I prefer the hitter. If you wanted, you could even throw in some of the 'intangibles' argument as Harper played better down the stretch and picked up the slack of the lineup with Zimmerman and Werth out for significant periods. 

However, at the same time my heart tells me to go with Miley since Harper will have more chances for hardware in his career. Still, I'm in the business of using my head and with some sadness I have to give my theoretical vote to Harper. 

One last thing, it's going to be fun watching Harper and Trout over the next 10 years.

UPDATE: Harper and Trout both won. 

Free Agent Predictions: 11-20

Continuing from yesterday, here are more predictions for the top free agents this offseason:

11. Edwin Jackson: Blue Jays. Edwin Jackson took a one-year deal last offseason with the Nationals with the hopes of getting a multi-year deal this offseason. While he pitched pretty well for the Nationals (3.79 xFIP) eating up innings (189.2) I don't get the feeling he'll get the large, mult-year deal that he's seeking. With that said, I could see the Blue Jays sneaking in and getting Jackson's inning eating ways for a reasonable price.

12. David Ortiz: Red Sox. The Red Sox already signed Ortiz and I briefly talked about that move here.

13. Kyle Lohse: Angels. Lohse is best fit as a member of the Cardinals, but they have so much rotation depth that I don't see them retaining his services. With the Angels still committed to winning now and needing to replace some spots in the rotation, I could see them taking a chance on Lohse. 

14. Mike Napoli: Red Sox. As Tim Dierkes mentions, Napoli might be a case where the player accepts a qualifying offer, so it's unsure if the Rangers would even want to offer one. If that's the case, and there is no compensation for signing Napoli, he would make a pretty a smart buy low. I don't think the Red Sox are looking to spend $175 million on Josh Hamilton types, but I don't think they're willing to forfeit 2013 either. I already have them signing Nick Swisher, and although that may be unlikely, Mike Napoli would be a great fit on Boston since they could use someone to play a little 1b and catcher.

15. Adam LaRoche: Nationals. LaRoche is both good and unexciting which for my money means that the Nationals will keep him.

16. Ryan Dempster: Brewers. The Brewers can hit but they still can't pitch all that well. Additionally, they're not an ATM machine like some of the other teams and can't afford signing the top pitchers available. That would make solid, reliable albeit old pitchers like Ryan Dempster (can you believe he's 36 years old?) an attractive target. 

17. Melky Cabrera: Mariners. I've heard the Mariners being linked with Josh Hamilton, and since I have him going to Baltimore, that would make the Mariners still in need of an outfield bat. Melky shouldn't require more than a one-year commitment to regain some integrity and doing it tucked away in the northwest might be the best place for him.

18. Rafael Soriano: Yankees.  To tell you the truth, I don't actually see the Yankees signing Soriano necessarily but I don't know which middling team is going to overpay for saves. 

19. Torii Hunter: Yankees. It wouldn't be a free agent prediction post if it wasn't littered with Yankees right? With Swisher likely on the run the Yankees need someone to play RF and Hunter should provide them with production without going over their budget (if we believe they will adhere to it) in 2014.

20. Cody Ross: Diamondbacks. With Justin Upton trade rumors swirling, the Diamondbacks would need a replacement RF if he were to be traded. Enter Cody Ross. He certainly won't come cheap, but he won't break the bank either and he has experience playing in the NL West to boot.

Free Agent Predictions: 1-10

Tim Dierkes, the genius behind the stellar and crucial site MLB Trade Rumors came out with his yearly top 50 free agent rankings and predictions. I will do the same:

1. Josh Hamilton: Orioles. Hamilton wants to get paid, the Rangers don't really want him and it's beneficial for him to play in the AL if we figure he will get a long term deal where he will need some time at DH in the future. With that said, the Orioles made a nice little run this year but their current roster (and bullpen) ran significantly above expectation. To make it back this year they have to upgrade their roster and signing Hamilton will do just that. They could also upgrade the rotation slot as they really don't have a #1 or #2 starter, but we'll get to that later. 

2. Zack Greinke: Angels. The Angels traded Ervin Santana and bought out Dan Haren's contract making him a free agent. After last year's spending spree and the emergence of Trout, I don't think the Angels are trying to rebuild or save money and they clearly need some pitchers, and good ones at that. Zack Greinke is a good one and had a HOF-esque year in 2009 but since then he's merely been very solid. He might get paid as if he strung together a few 2009 type seasons in a row, but anyway you slice it the Angels need him. 

3. Michael Bourn: Nationals. The Nationals haven't been shy about spending money, have showed earlier than expected returns and need a center fielder. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth can play the position (at least literally) but Bourn in center puts everyone in their appropriate slots in the outfield. The Nationals are already very good, they might be great in 2013. 

4. B.J. Upton: Phillies. Shane Victorino is a free agent and while I don't see the Phillies retaining his services, with an aging roster still in win-now mode they need a replacement. Enter B.J. Upton. Bossman Jr might be one of the more frustrating players to watch given the tools he has and the results he produces, but those results are still a net positive. He plays the position (CF) well, has great speed, a surprising amount of pop and can take a walk. He struggles to make consistent contact and you'd like a higher BABIP given his speed, but Upton has been a solid player for the Rays the last few years and he should continue to replicate that production for the next few years and I'm saying it's on the Phillies.

5. Nick Swisher: Red Sox. I'm going on a little bit of a limb on this one but Cody Ross is a worse player than Swisher and is asking for a good sum of money. If he Ross leaves the Red Sox will have a hole in RF and money to spend, let's see if the curse of the Swish becomes a thing. 

6. Anibal Sanchez: Tigers. His initial struggles in the American League might cause some teams to worry about Anibal but the Tigers had prime seats for his success in the playoffs this year. Anibal has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball the last few years which should make his price-tag reasonable and I say he stays in Detroit. 

7. Dan Haren: Yankees. If you want my opinion, I feel Dan Haren will be the bargain of the top-tier-ish free agents and I think the Yankees will be able to sign him to an expensive but two-year deal that expires when they would like to get under the $189 million cap without spending the luxury tax after 2014.

8. Angel Pagan: Giants. The Giants don't want to pull another Aubrey Huff, over paying for a veteran after a World Series victory, but they need a CF and I think Pagan will sign for a reasonable price. Also, if Anibal Sanchez is one of the more underrated pitchers, Angel Pagan has to be considered one of the more underrated hitters as above average hitting, quality fielding center fielders don't really grow on trees, or ticket oaks. 

9. Hiroki Kuroda: Yankees. This just makes too much sense. However, if the Yankees get Haren like I'm guessing, and retain Kuroda they will have to make a trade. I suspect Hughes and/or Nova might be in a deal for a younger position player. Total speculation, but that's the point of this post. If I'm the Yankees I overpay in a trade for Chase Headley.

10. Shane Victorino: Braves. The Braves are a smart, well-run team. They bought low on Michael Bourn, they will probably pass on resigning him now and they will replace his production with another buy low, this time from Hawaii. 

Quick Thoughts: Election Day!

If you haven't yet please get out and vote! 

Please!

If you aren't sure where to vote go here.

If you live in New York and you're not sure where to vote you can vote at any polling site! 

If you're hesitant or too lazy to vote because your vote "doesn't matter" in your state, I'm not going to bother with you as your vote for President likely doesn't really matter. However, the ballot is longer than just the Presidential vote so please consider voting down the ballot, however you choose. Everyone knows that New York will go blue but if a few people didn't care to vote down the ballot, maybe same-sex marriage wouldn't have been legalized in the state. Now, I honestly don't care where you stand on that particular issue, the point is that important issues that you might care about will be decided by people other than POTUS. Go vote!

Anywho, back to baseball (sort of):

• So Jeter is voting for Obama and A-Rod is a Romney guy. And A-Rod wonders why he gets booed at home...
• Jeremy Bonderman wants to return to baseball. Bonderman hasn't been a useful pitcher since 2006 but stranger things have happened and I hope he gets a chance in Spring Training. Maybe he'll return to the team that drafted him (Oakland) and get some advice from Bartolo Colon. 
• Josh Hamilton reportedly is asking for 7 years/$175 million which seems like a lot for the second best center fielder on the market. 
• Speaking of the best center fielder on the market, while I don't necessarily agree that Michael Bourn > Josh Hamilton, for the price that they will go for Bourn might be the better buy. However, I still wouldn't want to spend on Michael Bourn.
• Speaking of center field, the Yankees are considering moving Gardner to CF and Granderson to LF. The only question is why didn't this occur earlier? Although it's silly and hurts the team (since Gardner is/was the better fielder), I understand or understood putting Granderson in CF when the Yankees acquired him from the Tigers in 2010 but it didn't take long to realize that Gardner was the best CF on the roster. Assuming Girardi makes the right move in 2013, it's good to know it only took him three years to make the call. #sarcasm

Quick Thoughts

Some quick hits on the latest news for your weekend pleasure:

• The Red Sox might have collapsed but David Ortiz can still hit baseballs better than most players on this planet. Although he missed a lot of time this year, since 2011 the only players with a higher wRC+ than Big Papi are Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. That's not bad company and for two years and $26 million it's a nice deal for Boston.
• Ervin Santana had a 5.16 ERA last year. Ervin Santana gave up 39 long balls last year. Ervin Santana will make $13 million in 2013. Ervin Santana is an overpaid, decent pitcher so naturally Dayton Moore did a Dayton Moore thing and traded for Santana. No additional commentary needed.
• After almost going to the Cubs in a trade, the Angels have now let Dan Haren become a free agent, buying him out for $3.5 million instead of paying the $15.5 million price tag for 2013. Haren has long been one of the more underrated pitchers in the league and even after a disappointing year (4.33 ERA/4.00 xFIP) Haren will be a nice addition for any team in need of pitching. Zack Greinke headlines the free agent pitching class but my money is on Haren providing the best value. 
• On a non-baseball note, I hope that everyone is safe and dry from the effects of Sandy. Also, while volunteering your time for photo opps like Mitt Romney is noble and can be helpful, please consider donating money here.