Thursday, November 15, 2012

NL Most Valuable Player

My ballot:

"$20 says I'll win the MVP and your ERA is over 5" 
1. Buster Posey
2. Yadier Molina
3. Ryan Braun
4. Andrew McCutchen

I promise this isn't based off of how each individual team finished, even though it may appear that way. If you've read some of my stuff you know I don't care about team performance for an individual award. 

I also promise that it's not based just on WAR. Buster Posey did lead the NL with 8.0 fWAR but Ryan Braun (7.9), McCutchen (7.4) both finished with a better number than Yadier Molina (6.5).

My basis for Posey has the same logic to my choice of Mike Trout for AL MVP - choosing the player who both hit and fielded a tough position. 

Ryan Braun led the NL in homers, OPS and finished second in RBI so clearly he was the best hitter, right?

Eh, not necessarily. Remember that pesky little thing called context? 

OPS+ wRC+
Braun 159 162
Posey 172 162

Ryan Braun had a great year at the plate. No doubt. So did Buster Posey. Buster Posey also played behind the plate, catching 114 games. I think we have a winner!

This isn't necessarily an easy call like the AL MVP, but I do believe the clear choice is Buster Posey. 

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