Monday, December 17, 2012

The Dickey Trade

Apologies if I'm forgetting a few but the following is a list of things that Mets fans could cheer for in 2012:
  • One game behind the Nationals on June 1st
  • Johan's no hitter
  • R.A. Dickey
That's a short list and now, pending a physical, the Mets will be without Dickey for 2013. 

The Mets will undoubtedly be less interesting to watch next year and as much as it may hurt to see Dickey go, it's also probably the best move for the team's future. The Mets apparently tried to resign Dickey but considering the reigning Cy Young Award winner with a 2.95 ERA over the last three seasons only wanted $30 million for three years, it's hard to imagine the Mets really wanted to keep Dickey. Maybe they felt Dickey was too old, maybe they felt it would be silly to spend money now on a team that can't win, or maybe the Mets are just broke. I don't know the answer but the fact remains the Mets couldn't (in their mind) keep Dickey. With that in place, trading him, Josh Thole and a prospect to the Blue Jays for Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and another prospect is a smart move for the Metsies. 

About Those Prospects

Travis d'Arnaud entered 2012 ranked as the #17 prospect by Baseball America.  Unfortunately he tore a knee ligament in June but in 303 plate appearances for AAA Las Vegas d'Arnaud hit .333/.380/.595 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Las Vegas is often home to some awesome stats as Dave Cameron points out, but d'Arnaud is one of the top prospects in baseball and maybe more importantly, he plays a position (catcher) that the Mets are in dire need of. 

I'd be lying if I said I was fluent in all things Noah Syndergaard before hearing the Jays and Mets were discussing a R.A. Dickey trade. Nonetheless, the kid can pitch. Before the season, Baseball America ranked Syndergaard as the Jays seventh best prospect and having the best fastball in their system. Also, just a month ago, Marc Hulet ranked him as the third best prospect on the Jays. Syndergaard might not develop secondary pitches to stay in the rotation but at worst he'll be an effective reliever with a big boy fastball and at best he can sit towards the top of the Mets rotation.  

As well all know, potential is just potential and There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect but come 2015 the Mets could have an every day catcher who can hit and a pitcher joining Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in a formidable rotation. However you want to slice it, it's a good return for Dickey, a player who by the way the Mets were playing it, wasn't necessarily going to be on the team in 2014. 

Win Win

For several years now Alex Anthopoulos and Jays and have been building for the future -- trading Roy Halladay for what in turn became Travis d'Arnaud and Anthony Gose, upgrading Brandons in trading League for Morrow, signing Jose Bausita to a five-year $65 million deal, getting rid of Vernon Wells and his contract and buying low on Colby Rasmus. Like any General Manager or player, Anthopoulos hasn't batted 1.000, but damn has he come close. 

Of course building for the future will only be a perpetual place holder unless the future becomes the present and that's exactly what Anthopoulos has done this offseason. Starting with the mega-deal with the Marlins and ending (for the moment) with acquiring R.A. Dickey, the Jays have gone from intriguing team to AL East favorite in a matter of months. You can argue about Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle being overpaid, mention Dickey's old age or bring up Josh Johnson's injury history and make some decent points but when you're in the Jays position, those are the type of risks that could be extremely profitable. The Jays smelled the blood with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays* all taking steps back and regardless of what their 2013 results are, the Jays process was smart and sound. 

*Yes, the Orioles made the postseason last year but I'm still not a believer. Sorry O's fans. 

Unlike games, trades don't have to have a winner and a loser and in this case both Mets and the Jays are winners. The 2015 Mets have a brigther future than they did a week ago and the Jays roster is looking pretty, pretty good.

Rotation

SP1: R.A. Dickey
SP2: Josh Johnson
SP3: Brandon Morrow 
SP4: Mark Buehrle 
SP5: Rickey Romero

Lineup

1. Jose Reyes - SS
2. Melky Cabrera - LF
3. Jose Bautista - RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion - 1B
5. Colby Rasmus - CF
6. Brett Lawrie - 3B
7. Adam Lind - DH
8. J.P. Arencibia - C
9. Emilio Bonifacio - 2B

The Jays might not have the best rotation or lineup in the league, but their combination might be the most impressive. The Yankees won't go down without a fight and the Rays always manage to figure something out (even if they downgraded with the Shields trade) but anyone denying the Jays as AL East favorite is just used to how things used to be. 

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