Recent Retirements: Andy Pettitte

In the past week or so, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton and now Andy Pettitte have or will announce their retirement. All three are/were fabulous players and all three played throughout the peak of my childhood fandom. But today I will talk about Mr. Pettitte.

This glare will be missed.

I'm a Yankee fan so naturally I was/am a huge fan of Andy Pettitte. In 1995 I saw a Yankees game in which Andy Pettitte started during his rookie season. He won the game. I felt I was onto something that nobody else saw and said "Andy Pettitte is going to be really good." Of course, Andy Pettitte was a top 50 prospect before the 1995 season and I was nine years old, so clearly I wasn't a big time scout but I suppose I was onto something.

The next year, Andy Pettitte and the Yankees were even better as Andy won 21 games and the Yankees won the World Series. At that moment in time (and for a few lingering years later), wins were a crucial part to how young Ben evaluated pitchers and I was livid that Pettitte finished second in the Cy Young behind Pat Hentgen. Who's Pat Hentgen? That's the question I asked. I didn't know much. Looking back on it however, I can't complain about how the voting shook out. Pettitte threw 221 innings with a 3.87/4.08 ERA/FIP and those 21 wins. That doesn't look as impressive today but this was 1996 (aka Steroids) and Pettittes ERA- and FIP- were 79 and 85 respectively. Meanwhile Pat Hentgen threw 265.2 innings with a 3.22/3.94 ERA/FIP. Again, these aren't fantastic numbers but Hentgen was certainly the better pitcher.

I've already talked too much about Pat Hentgen but he followed up his Cy Young year with a solid 1997and was more or less done after that. Andy Pettitte was just starting. Andy has already retired once so there was, there is and there will continue to be lots of words written about his career and his Hall of Fame chances. This is mostly because Pettitte is/was good enough to merit consideration but also because he's not quite good enough to be completely convinced one way or the other. That's why there are so many words talking about his chances, it's not obvious and we have to talk it out, and get page views. 2013 isn't over yet but so far Pettitte has 255 wins in 3,300 IP with a 3.86 ERA and a 84 FIP-, meaning Pettitte's been about 16% better than an average pitcher. That's solid. His 68.1 WAR (also very solid) puts him above an arbitrary threshold (60 WAR) to merit HOF consideration and depending on how one evaluates the Hall, his 276.2 postseason innings pitched should be worth at least something.

There is also that steroid/HGH thing. The Hall has come down hard on anyone who has been caught, admitted to or is even suspected of cheating (why isn't Jeff Bagwell in yet?). But, Pettitte is often lauded for how he handled that situation and maybe that whole breaking the rules snafu will mean less for him. That's stupid and arbitrary but it could be the truth. Also, it's not as fun to quickly end a Pettitte debate because he used HGH and that's that because cheaters never win and winners never cheat.

Compared to his peers, Andy may not be considered to be that great of a pitcher. That's because his peers are some of the greatest pitchers of all time - Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Pedro Martinez, and yes, Kevin Brown. Andy Pettitte had a great career but so did Kevin Brown. They essentially threw the same amount of innings except Brown has a lower career ERA, more WAR and both a better and longer peak. Neither are "clean." The writers hate Brown and they seem to love Andy. Yankee fans remember Kevin Brown breaking his hand punching a wall. Yankee fans also remember Pettitte winning the clinching game of each playoff series in the Yankees 2009 World Series run, among many other notable things. However, take a peak at Kevin Brown from 1996-1998, I think you will be impressed. Either way, recency bias is at play here but perception can reality. This sucks for Kevin Brown, it's good for Andy.

I'm not sure if it's quite good enough to get Andy into the Hall of Fame but regardless, Pettitte's career will be looked at fondly, at least by those in NY (a few in Houston) and boys who saw him pitch a game in 1995. It's easy to get bogged down by the numbers when talking about a player's career and Hall of Fame chances and sometimes that can take the fun away from the equation. While I'm not a fan of evaluating players solely on feel, with news of Andy's impending retirement I choose to remember his glare waiting for the catcher's sign, his game 5 in the 1996 World Series, the 2009 playoff run and his surprise comeback in 2012. It's been fun watching Andy Pettitte pitch all of these years, I'll certainly be sad to see him go but I'm glad we'll have a chance to say goodbye and in five years let's bring up those numbers again. 

A Few Sneaky Good Seasons

Not all good seasons are created equal, in terms of getting noticed. If a player isn't on a playoff team or doesn't do particularly well in a fantasy baseball category, they can often get lost in the shuffle. Even non-fantasy players may fail to notice someone's awesome production if they're simply taking their walks and hitting a lot of doubles as we are mostly primed to take note of Chris Davis' homers and not necessarily the strikeout-to-walk ratio of a starter in Seattle.

If Elvis Costello played fantasy baseball and wanted to let his audience know about a few under-the-radar performances, and also wanted to illustrate his vulnerability in not necessarily achieving that goal, my guess is that he would re-word the lyrics to Sneaky Feelings:

Sneaky feelings seasons, sneaky feelings seasons,
you can't let those kind of feelings seasons show.
I'd like to get right through the way I feel for you,
but I've still got a long way to go.

Anywho, the three players below have probably been better than you have expected. Of course, if you either already expected the below or were previously aware of their production, I apologize and if you would like, I can uncover a few even sneakier seasons for a later post. 

Jayson Werth: The Nationals have been very disappointing, Jayson Werth has not. After missing half of the season last year and pretty much pooping the bed entirely in 2011, Werth's name wasn't flickering too heavily on anyone's radar. Considering he's generally been a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type of performer, it's not entirely surprising that his season isn't mentioned much, but a great season he has had thus far. Werth's hitting .323/.398/.528 with a 158 wRC+. He "only" has 21 home runs but he's 8th in the league in slugging. Among all OFs, only Mike Trout (180 wRC+) has had a better season at the plate. Werth's age has affected his fielding and baserunning which used to be elite but his overall game is still solid as his WAR ranks 13th among all OFs. It's unlikely that Werth will ever be worth the contract the Nationals handed him (7 years, $126 million) but if his bat can perform like this over the next few seasons, the Nationals will be happy(er).  

Shane Victorino: Many people have applauded the Red Sox offseason strategy of acquiring depth rather than stars when they signed Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino. The applause certainly isn't/wasn't misguided but of the three,Victorino's contract was questioned the most even though he's been by far the most valuable. Victorino's 120 wRC+ would be the second highest mark of his career and his defensive and baserunning numbers have been off the charts this season. Small sample size warnings apply certainly apply in those categories but he's on pace to eclipse his career high in WAR and any way you want to slice it, Victorino has been playing some of the best ball of his career. He's hitting .295/.353/.456 and with 14 HRs and 20 SBs, Shane's certainly helped his fantasy owners along the way. As usual, Shane's been nicked up a tad here and there but he's also played 110 games and should finish with around a respectable 130 games played. The Red Sox would likely still have playoff aspirations without the Flyin' Hawaiin but even though he doesn't have Papi's pop or Pedroia's reputation, Shane's been as valuable as anyone to Boston's turnaround.

Homer Bailey: Bailey has thrown (another) no hitter and pitches for a team contending for the playoffs but he's still gone a tad unnoticed. I suppose it's our continued attachment to the win as Bailey has a pedestrian 10-10 record. However, if we dig just a tad deeper we can see Bailey's shine. 3.39/3.07/3.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP is a great line and if you prefer to use SIERA to evaluate pitchers, Bailey's got you covered as well (3.16). Bailey has upped his strikeouts to nearly one per inning (8.94 K/9), has the lowest walk-rate of his career (1.98 BB/9) and is doing it all with an average fastball velocity of 94 mph, a mark that is only topped by 6 other starting pitchers. A former top prospect, Bailey was long considered a bust until his solid 2012 season but he's taken it to another level this year and defining what an "ace" is can be pretty elusive but I'm pretty sure we can throw Homer's name into that bucket. 

Unpublished Post: 2013 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

I was looking through my drafts and found this, a post on fantasy baseball sleepers for the season that I never published/finished:

The Rookies

Adam Eaton: The Diamondbacks traded Chris Young largely in part because they expect Adam Eaton to take over duties in CF. In a 22 game sample last year Eaton showed great plate discipline, walking 14 times with only strikeouts and posting a .382 OBP. In 112 games in AAA last year Eaton batted an astounding .381/.456/.539 with 7 home runs and 38 stolen bases. 22 Games and 103 plate appearances is as small of a sample size as they come, but Eaton's consistently showed an ability to take a walk and not strike out much throughout his entire minor league career. As a full time player for the Diamondbacks with on-base ability, Eaton should be a great source of cheap steals with a chance to hit for some pop if he can improve in that area.  

Jean Segura: I briefly mentioned Segura in my 2013 predictions post as a breakout in 2013 but I will go in more depth here. Segura was traded to the Brewers in the Zack Greinke trade this year that brought him to the Angels. Segura has some good pedigree having been ranked as the 57th best prosepct by Baseball America before the 2011 season and as the 55th best prospect entering the 2012 season. Segura is expected to be the every day shortstop for the Brewers at the ripe age of 22 years old. Like Eaton, Segura limits his strikeouts, which is beneficial to his great speed. Segura stole 50 bases in 2010, 23 in 2011 and 44 in 2012. Segura doesn't have power but he likely won't put up a zero spot in the home run category either, with an ability to hit 5 or so homers. Segura's contact ability and speed should allow him to hit for an at least average average and steal 30 or so bases. In 2012 Segura could be Alcides Escobar bad version or Alcides Escobar good version which is essentially a slightly poor man's Elvis Andrus. Second base and short stop isn't quite as bad as it's been in previous years but it's still a weak position, so finding one that could hit .280 and steal 30 bases at a low cost could surely yield a lot of value on draft day. 

Adam Eaton's injury surely limited his abilities this season but he's also hit .273/.343/.410 with three homers and three steals in 45 games thus far.

Jean Segura has struggled of late but his 2013 breakout clearly happened -- .304 BA, 12 HR and 39 SBs.

I'm not sure I can take credit for an article I never actually wrote, but I think I'll make sure to write more fantasy baseball articles this offseason. You can count on that this offseason. That and A-Rod outrage all over the internet, but also fantasy baseball articles from the Ben's Baseball Bias. 

MVP Discussion: National League

Earlier this week I talked about the American League MVP, now it's time for the National League:

1.) Andrew McCutchen: As I said previously, the MVP isn't and shouldn't just be the players with the highest WAR. However, leading the league certainly means you're doing something right and right now McCutchen is basically doing everything right and leading the league in WAR. The case for McCutchen is pretty easy though, regardless of your stance on WAR (in this conversation I mean Wins Above Replacement, as I'm not a fan of the other kind). McCutchen is third in the NL in wRC+ (153), 4th in OPS (.911) and does that while playing a terrific CF and giving the Pirates value on the bases (7th most baserunning runs in the NL). Oh, and he plays for the first place Pirates, if you care about that sort of thing. This is easy (for now). 

2.) Yadier Molina:  Yadier spent some time on the DL this year but his combination of hitting at a position as demanding as catcher, while also playing that position so brilliantly makes him #2 for me. Yadier's 133 wRC+ won't blow your socks off, but only Buster Posey can best him at the catcher position, and that number also ranks 15th in the NL. There is still a lot to learn about how to evaluate catchers but Yadier is considered the best in the business, the Cardinals have the 5th best ERA in the NL and he has thrown out 42% of baserunners trying to steal.  Plus, Yadier is one of only a few people who I prefer to refer to using their first name, and that has to mean something. 

3.) Clayton Kershaw: It's true that pitchers have their own award, but until someone changes the MVP to Most Valuable Hitter, pitchers are eligible. Kershaw has continued his masterly run over the last few years with his best performance to date. In 209 IP, Kershaw has a 1.89 ERA and the peripherals to back up (2.37/2.93 FIP/xFIP). If we judge by WAR, Kershaw is actually 2nd in baseball (5.9) to Matt Harvey (6.1). But, if we go by RA9-WAR, Kershaw is blowing out the competition with 7.6 wins, ahead of Matt Harvey (6.0). Both FIP based war and RA9 WAR have their drawbacks, but Kershaw is dominating each. When Justin Verlander won the MVP he had 6.9 FIP WAR and 9.2 RA9-WAR. Kershaw's 2013 is on par with that and I have no qualms ranking him third here. Which is unsurprising considering I did the rankings. The reverse would be a little odd.

4.) Carlos Gomez: Gomez has struggled of late but production in April counts just as much as September in my mind. However, if he continues to slide in September, he'll leave plenty of room for others below to leap frog him. Anyway, let's talk about what he's done, the posts actual purpose. Gomez is essentially a worse hitting/better fielding version of McCutchen. Gomez' 128 wRC+ won't blow your socks off but he's arguably the best fielding CF in the league and one of its best baserunners. One could also say he's like Yadier Molina, hitting well at a tough position, fielding it wonderfully and netting tons of value on the basepaths just with Gomez producing on the field while Yadier helps to prevent that. The Brewers are bad this year but I'm not blaming Gomez for Ryan Braun's suspension and lack of a pitching staff.

5.) Joey Votto/Paul Goldschmidt: It's tough to choose between the two:

Votto:.292/.397/.534, 151 wRC+, 5.3 WAR

Goldy: .300/.424/.486, 151 wRC+, 5.3 WAR

Votto and Goldshmidt both field their positions pretty well and provide + value with their legs and have been essentially the same player at the plate. Votto walks a little more and Goldy hits for a little more power but in the end their production is the same. It's true that Goldy has 42 more RBI than Votto but it's also true that the statistic is misguided. It's also true that giving Brandon Phillips credit for Votto's .424 OBP is silly. I wonder what kind of RBI Votto would have with Votto batting ahead of him, and the same goes for Phillips with Cozart/Frazier ahead of him. 

6.) Others: David Wright's been terrific again but has only played 105 games and likely won't see many more this season. The Giants have been disappointing this season, but don't blame Posey - .309/.377/.475 is still prettay, prettay good at catcher. Matt Carpenter has been a revelation at second for the Cardinals, and Allen Craig has been other-worldly batting with runners on base. Playing time is an issue but Yasiel Puig is as responsible for the Dodgers turnaround as Kershaw. His teammates Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez have certainly chirped in as well. Freddie Freeman will get some votes for his health and consistency on the first place braves but as good as he's been, Votto and Goldy are better. There's always one Rockie who hits well enough to garner a few votes and this year it's been Cuddyer. But considering he plays in Coors and doesn't do anything else well on the field, his batting line isn't good enough to justify anything more than a few down ballot votes.

Anywho, what do you guys think?

Happy New Year

Baseball might be the only sport left that allows for our Chosen Ones to still compete at the professional level in a greater capacity. 

For this, I am grateful.

Happy New Year to all of those with which this applies!

Russell Martin, Vernon Wells and the Postseason

Russell Martin was a good but not great player for the Yankees in 2011 and 2012. Although he only "batted" .224 he hit enough home runs (39) and drew enough walks (.317 OBP) to basically be a slightly below average hitter (94 OPS+). But, Russell Martin plays catcher, where an average hitter would make for a great player. In 2011 and 2012 Martin accrued 4.8 WAR for the Yankees. Good, not great.

The sweet smell of October.
(NY Post)

Meanwhile, one couldn't even call Vernon Wells a good player in 2011 or 2012. Replacement level is more or less what Wells was worth, with 0.6 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. In those years Wells hit .222/.258/.409. If Vernon Wells played catcher, he'd be a backup. Not good, terrible. 

In 2014 there is a steep luxury tax threshold at $189 million that the Yankees would not like to surpass. So, when Russell Martin was a free agent, the Yankees decided to pass on him, or at least his price, as they were outbid by the Pirates. The Yankees were outbid by the Pirates. Even though the Pirates are in first place, that sentence sounds as strange now as it did back then.

A few months later the Yankees, in need of some right-handed hitting, traded for Vernon Wells. Although Wells is/was due a ridiculous $42 million in 2013 and 2014, the Yankees would be paying Wells only $14 million for his services, $11.5 million which would be paid in 2013. 

Russell Martin signed with the Pirates for $17 million over two years. Although this wasn't their plan when they initially declined to resign Martin, the Yankees essentially let Russell Martin go for Vernon Wells and $3 million with the luxury of using Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart at catcher as a bonus. #Brilliant. 

On September 4th, 2013 the Yankees (74-64) are 2.5 games back of the Wild Card. The Pirates are 81-57 with a two game lead over the Cardinals for the division. In 413 plate appearances Vernon Wells has hit .243/.291/.369. Russell Martin has hit  .238/.339/.394. Both batting lines seem bad but both are not the same. Vernon Wells has a 77 wRC+, Russell Martin has a 109 wRC+. Russell Martin has been exponentially better than Vernon Wells. Russell Martin has been worth 4.3 wins for the Pirates, Vernon Wells has been worth exactly 0.0 wins. 

$65 million for 0.6 WAR in the last
three seasons. I'd make that smirk too.

It's not a stretch to say if the Yankees kept Martin they could have a lead on a Wild Card spot while the Pirates would be fighting for one (of two). While the Yankees have done some nice work to get back to being only 2.5 games back, Russell Martin's production over the Chris Stewart/Austin Romine combination might be the difference between Mariano Rivera finishing his career with October baseball or not. In 298 PAs, Chris Stewart has a wRC+ of 57 and in 138 PAs, Romine's is 60. Francisco Cervelli looked good in 17 games but he's been hurt/suspended and won't get another plate appearance this season. 

Some accounting allows the Yankees to pay Wells only a few million in 2014 (whoopie!), while Russell Martin will make a robust $8.5 million. It's not absurd to understand the Yankees want to avoid the luxury tax threshold. It's a little absurd to think that the Yankees couldn't retain Martin's services while finding the extra ~$6 million. 

Speaking of ~$6 million, Ichiro Suzuki makes $6.5 million this year and next because the Yankees found it wise to resign the 39 year old right fielder to a two year deal after 67 games last year. The Pirates are paying Russell Martin $17.5 million in 2013 and 2014, the Yankees are paying Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki $27 million over that same time span.

This is somewhat unrelated but it feels necessary to add - AJ Burnett has thrown 160 innings (25 starts) to a 3.09 ERA and a 2.84/2.97 FIP/xFIP for the Pirates. The Yankees are paying Burnett $8.5 million to do that on Pittsburgh. The Yankees currently use Phil Hughes in their rotation. Phil Hughes has thrown 137 innings (26 starts) with a 4.86 ERA.

Bill Mazeroski famously owned the Yankees in the 1960 World Series, but what the Pirates and AJ Burnett and Russell Martin have done to the Yankees of late is arguably more impressive, albeit it in a completely different way. 

MVP Discussion: American League

The season isn't over and players can often win the MVP based on a September performance (2004 Vlad says hi) but here is my take on the MVP awards in the American League:

1.) Mike Trout: You don't singularly use WAR to determine MVP winners but Mike Trout's WAR (9.3) has a sizable lead over Mr. Cabrera's (7.5). I personally don't care about team performance, so I'm not deducting points from Trout because of the Angels lack of starting rotation, struggling bullpen and awfulness/injury woes from Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Although Miggy's definitely superior with the bat, Trout's 179 wRC+ is second in the American League. Trout's also second in BA and OBP, third in SLG, fourth in SBs and leads the league in runs. He plays a solid center field and is one of the best baserunners in the league. He does it differently than Chris Davis, but imagine Davis playing CF and stealing 30 bags a year, that's the year Trout is having.

2.) Miguel Cabrera: A lot of the categories that Trout is second in, is because Miggy is the leader. His 202 wRC+ is far and away the best mark in baseball. Miggy won the triple crown last year and provided he doesn't miss the rest of the season, he will be better in all of the triple crown categories this year. He doesn't play it well, but Miggy plays a premier position and is batting .355/.446/.676. He's guaranteed to win the MVP, both because he gets RBI and because the Tigers have a terrific pitching staff, but I still prefer Mr. Trout, especially if Miggy's injury lingers in September.

3.) Chris Davis: Davis is having a superb year and is the sole reason why Miggy (likely) won't repeat as a triple crown winner. His power (47 HR) and RBIs (130) along with Baltimore's better record will likely place him above Trout in MVP voting but I would say he belongs here. Still, Davis is third in the league in WAR (6.4), third in wRC+ (176) and leads the league in both HRs and RBI for those who love counting stats. Although his strikeout rate (28.8%) is back to his career norms, he's walking more than before (10.8%) and isn't likely a one-trick pony, destined to turn into a pumpkin in 2014. I liken him to Edwin Encarnacion, a power guy with a ton of pedigree that's finally cashed in all the chips.

4.) Robinson Cano: The first three guys are kind of no-brainers and it gets a little trickier here but I'll place Cano fourth. He admittedly isn't having as good of a year as last season but he's still one of the league's best. His 139 wRC+ is tops among second basemen, he's 10th in the AL in WAR, and he's hitting .305/.383/.508 on a team who has had Jayson Nix, Lyle Overbay and Brett Lillibridge on the corners this season. 

5.) Evan Longoria/Adrian Beltre: I can't decide between the two.

Longoria: 5.9 WAR, 132 wRC+,  19.5 UZR/150

Beltre: 5.2 WAR, 143 wRC+, 2.6 UZR/150

Longoria's been better with the glove and Beltre has been better with the bat. Beltre has posted UZRs in the double digits the last five years, so I wonder if he's lost a step or if this season is somewhat of a fluke. Either way both Longo and Beltre are among the best hitting and fielding third basement in the game and both rank as the best player on their respective teams. Choosing between the two is difficult, and the better September might win. Of course, in this case winning means finishing behind Miggy/Davis/Trout..

6.) The Best of the Rest: Watching Manny Machado field is outstanding but his 109 wRC+ and (somewhat) slump in the second half takes him out of the top five for me. Josh Donaldson basically does everything well and probably should be listed with Longoria and Beltre above. Ellsbury and Victorino are big reasons why the Sox are in first place, hitting 10-15% better than league average while being brilliant in the field and on the basepaths. Joe Mauer and Dustin Pedroia have both won MVPs and continue to be in the discussion this year and likely in the future, playing so well at positions not normally conducive to hitting like they do.