Monday, September 9, 2013

A Few Sneaky Good Seasons

Not all good seasons are created equal, in terms of getting noticed. If a player isn't on a playoff team or doesn't do particularly well in a fantasy baseball category, they can often get lost in the shuffle. Even non-fantasy players may fail to notice someone's awesome production if they're simply taking their walks and hitting a lot of doubles as we are mostly primed to take note of Chris Davis' homers and not necessarily the strikeout-to-walk ratio of a starter in Seattle.

If Elvis Costello played fantasy baseball and wanted to let his audience know about a few under-the-radar performances, and also wanted to illustrate his vulnerability in not necessarily achieving that goal, my guess is that he would re-word the lyrics to Sneaky Feelings:

Sneaky feelings seasons, sneaky feelings seasons,
you can't let those kind of feelings seasons show.
I'd like to get right through the way I feel for you,
but I've still got a long way to go.


Anywho, the three players below have probably been better than you have expected. Of course, if you either already expected the below or were previously aware of their production, I apologize and if you would like, I can uncover a few even sneakier seasons for a later post. 

Jayson Werth: The Nationals have been very disappointing, Jayson Werth has not. After missing half of the season last year and pretty much pooping the bed entirely in 2011, Werth's name wasn't flickering too heavily on anyone's radar. Considering he's generally been a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type of performer, it's not entirely surprising that his season isn't mentioned much, but a great season he has had thus far. Werth's hitting .323/.398/.528 with a 158 wRC+. He "only" has 21 home runs but he's 8th in the league in slugging. Among all OFs, only Mike Trout (180 wRC+) has had a better season at the plate. Werth's age has affected his fielding and baserunning which used to be elite but his overall game is still solid as his WAR ranks 13th among all OFs. It's unlikely that Werth will ever be worth the contract the Nationals handed him (7 years, $126 million) but if his bat can perform like this over the next few seasons, the Nationals will be happy(er).  

Shane Victorino: Many people have applauded the Red Sox offseason strategy of acquiring depth rather than stars when they signed Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino. The applause certainly isn't/wasn't misguided but of the three,Victorino's contract was questioned the most even though he's been by far the most valuable. Victorino's 120 wRC+ would be the second highest mark of his career and his defensive and baserunning numbers have been off the charts this season. Small sample size warnings apply certainly apply in those categories but he's on pace to eclipse his career high in WAR and any way you want to slice it, Victorino has been playing some of the best ball of his career. He's hitting .295/.353/.456 and with 14 HRs and 20 SBs, Shane's certainly helped his fantasy owners along the way. As usual, Shane's been nicked up a tad here and there but he's also played 110 games and should finish with around a respectable 130 games played. The Red Sox would likely still have playoff aspirations without the Flyin' Hawaiin but even though he doesn't have Papi's pop or Pedroia's reputation, Shane's been as valuable as anyone to Boston's turnaround.

Homer Bailey: Bailey has thrown (another) no hitter and pitches for a team contending for the playoffs but he's still gone a tad unnoticed. I suppose it's our continued attachment to the win as Bailey has a pedestrian 10-10 record. However, if we dig just a tad deeper we can see Bailey's shine. 3.39/3.07/3.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP is a great line and if you prefer to use SIERA to evaluate pitchers, Bailey's got you covered as well (3.16). Bailey has upped his strikeouts to nearly one per inning (8.94 K/9), has the lowest walk-rate of his career (1.98 BB/9) and is doing it all with an average fastball velocity of 94 mph, a mark that is only topped by 6 other starting pitchers. A former top prospect, Bailey was long considered a bust until his solid 2012 season but he's taken it to another level this year and defining what an "ace" is can be pretty elusive but I'm pretty sure we can throw Homer's name into that bucket. 

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