Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Russell Martin, Vernon Wells and the Postseason

Russell Martin was a good but not great player for the Yankees in 2011 and 2012. Although he only "batted" .224 he hit enough home runs (39) and drew enough walks (.317 OBP) to basically be a slightly below average hitter (94 OPS+). But, Russell Martin plays catcher, where an average hitter would make for a great player. In 2011 and 2012 Martin accrued 4.8 WAR for the Yankees. Good, not great.
THAT’S THE PITTS: Russell Martin was all smiles yesterday at Pirates camp, as the new Pittsburgh catcher reflected on his time with the Yankees, who did not offer the free agent a contract.
The sweet smell of October.
(NY Post)

Meanwhile, one couldn't even call Vernon Wells a good player in 2011 or 2012. Replacement level is more or less what Wells was worth, with 0.6 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. In those years Wells hit .222/.258/.409. If Vernon Wells played catcher, he'd be a backup. Not good, terrible. 

In 2014 there is a steep luxury tax threshold at $189 million that the Yankees would not like to surpass. So, when Russell Martin was a free agent, the Yankees decided to pass on him, or at least his price, as they were outbid by the Pirates. The Yankees were outbid by the Pirates. Even though the Pirates are in first place, that sentence sounds as strange now as it did back then.

A few months later the Yankees, in need of some right-handed hitting, traded for Vernon Wells. Although Wells is/was due a ridiculous $42 million in 2013 and 2014, the Yankees would be paying Wells only $14 million for his services, $11.5 million which would be paid in 2013. 

Russell Martin signed with the Pirates for $17 million over two years. Although this wasn't their plan when they initially declined to resign Martin, the Yankees essentially let Russell Martin go for Vernon Wells and $3 million with the luxury of using Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart at catcher as a bonus. #Brilliant. 

On September 4th, 2013 the Yankees (74-64) are 2.5 games back of the Wild Card. The Pirates are 81-57 with a two game lead over the Cardinals for the division. In 413 plate appearances Vernon Wells has hit .243/.291/.369. Russell Martin has hit  .238/.339/.394. Both batting lines seem bad but both are not the same. Vernon Wells has a 77 wRC+, Russell Martin has a 109 wRC+. Russell Martin has been exponentially better than Vernon Wells. Russell Martin has been worth 4.3 wins for the Pirates, Vernon Wells has been worth exactly 0.0 wins. 
$65 million for 0.6 WAR in the last
three seasons. I'd make that smirk too.

It's not a stretch to say if the Yankees kept Martin they could have a lead on a Wild Card spot while the Pirates would be fighting for one (of two). While the Yankees have done some nice work to get back to being only 2.5 games back, Russell Martin's production over the Chris Stewart/Austin Romine combination might be the difference between Mariano Rivera finishing his career with October baseball or not. In 298 PAs, Chris Stewart has a wRC+ of 57 and in 138 PAs, Romine's is 60. Francisco Cervelli looked good in 17 games but he's been hurt/suspended and won't get another plate appearance this season. 

Some accounting allows the Yankees to pay Wells only a few million in 2014 (whoopie!), while Russell Martin will make a robust $8.5 million. It's not absurd to understand the Yankees want to avoid the luxury tax threshold. It's a little absurd to think that the Yankees couldn't retain Martin's services while finding the extra ~$6 million. 

Speaking of ~$6 million, Ichiro Suzuki makes $6.5 million this year and next because the Yankees found it wise to resign the 39 year old right fielder to a two year deal after 67 games last year. The Pirates are paying Russell Martin $17.5 million in 2013 and 2014, the Yankees are paying Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki $27 million over that same time span.

This is somewhat unrelated but it feels necessary to add - AJ Burnett has thrown 160 innings (25 starts) to a 3.09 ERA and a 2.84/2.97 FIP/xFIP for the Pirates. The Yankees are paying Burnett $8.5 million to do that on Pittsburgh. The Yankees currently use Phil Hughes in their rotation. Phil Hughes has thrown 137 innings (26 starts) with a 4.86 ERA.

Bill Mazeroski famously owned the Yankees in the 1960 World Series, but what the Pirates and AJ Burnett and Russell Martin have done to the Yankees of late is arguably more impressive, albeit it in a completely different way. 

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