Yankees Roundtable!

It has been over a year since we last checked in with fellow Yankee/baseball fans Jeff and Steve about the state of the Yankees. But, after such an active offseason for the pinstripes the time was ripe for another Yankees Roundtable. 

Our email conversation started with a generic question from me and the three of us just took it from there. As usual, it was fun for the three of us and I hope you enjoyed it as much as we did, in all of its unedited glory. 

Question: The Yankees have obviously had a busy offseason (goodbye Robbie and hello Ellsbury, Beltran and Tanaka) and it looks like it's finally starting to slow down. With that said are you a fan of the big moves that were made? 

Steve: I'm upset that Cano is gone, and I'm gonna continue to be upset about it all year. Any time you lose an elite guy--one who hits like a beast and plays middle infield--it hurts and I'm sure it'll be the thing to point to all year whenever the Yanks might hit a snag.

That said, it set some things in motion that I'm psyched about. Major contracts for the best guys on the market. I'm especially fond of the McCann and Tanaka signings. Maybe instead of posting for and nabbing Tanakdog they spend $50M on Garza or 60 for Ubaldo and use the rest for S. Drew and Balfour. Honestly, that's probably a more reasonable way to spend the money. But it seems the floor on Tanaka is ~3.75 ERA, 8 K/9 in as many innings as the can squeeze, and the upside is titillating.

My favorite part of the offseason is that the Yanks blew away the bullshit $189M figure. Slow-play decoy or whatever that was, it's clearly a non-factor now and the big bad Yanks just bankrobbed free agency. I will never feel bad about the Yankees spending money. They make the most, spend the most.

Jeff: Great response Steve, and thanks Ben and Steve for including me in this!

To start, I think the Yankees and their fans are in for a real surprise heading into their first season without Mariano Rivera.  The Yankees haven't had to question the 9th inning since Mariano Rivera took over as closer in 1997.  In the first season without Mo to cover the 9th, we as fans have to ask ourselves:  is David Robertson closer material?  The some statistics on their surface look promising; highest WHIP in last 3 years of 1.17 and a career 11.79 K/9 IP. However, any fan who has watched Robertson in the 9th inning when a save situation is at hand knows he isn't Mariano Rivera; he even has 2-3 blown saves per season when he has never been a genuine closer. If Robertson can't handle the 9th, it's going to be a long season. Similarly, do Yankees fans feel confident in the bullpen entering the season?  What does Matt Thornton have to offer?  Will Shawn Kelley regress?  I personally am very excited to see what Preston Clairborne has to offer in his sophomore campaign in the pen and what Dellin Betances will show with the new opportunity as a one inning option.

I have to agree with Steve that I am upset to see Cano go.  However, I am glad the Yankees didn't enter into an Albert Pujols-like 10 year contract with him either.  Still, without Cano at 2B, the infield looks extremely thin entering 2014.  It would be really nice to see the Yankees not have to rely on Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts as
everyday players.  

As far as the FA signings, I am very excited to see what Tanaka has to offer (especially since I think if the Yankees hadn't signed Tanaka that money would be going towards the overrated Ubaldo Jimenez). McCann is an intriguing signing.  I don't see him catching for too many years though, especially if Gary Sanchez comes knocking on the door in a year or two.  The FA signing I'm most upset about, however, is Jacoby Ellsbury.  Seven years and $153 million for someone whose top asset is speed.  Most alarming is that much money for a leadoff
hitter with a career .350 OBP.  I would have preferred to see the money go towards Shin Soo Choo.  Choo turned down a seven year, $140 million offer.  Choo is only one year older than Ellsbury but has a career .389 OBP (including a .423 OBP last year for Cincy).  Is a leadoff hitter's primary purpose not to get on base?  Choo also has the greater power stroke.  Finally, I do enjoy the Beltran signing, despite his age.  Beltran, as long as he stays healthy, should be a steady middle of the lineup source of RBI and has always produced in the playoffs.

My overall impression of the offseason is that it's more of the same. However, more of the same is the reason the Yankees found themselves old/crippled and missing the playoffs last season.  It's the tail end of the core four from the late 90's and it's time the Yankees focus on improving the farm system.  With the best draft pick entering this season since the 90's all the Yankees proceeded to do was sign multiple Type A free agents and lose their top draft picks.  The Yankees need to learn a lesson from World Series Champion Cardinals and focus on rebuilding the farm system.  While I agree with Steve that it's nice to see the Yankees invest so much money into the team, signing 30+ year old FA's who are at the tail end of their prime only prevents the Yankees from developing players who will be a foundation of the organization for years to come.

Biggest questions entering the season:
1.  What will the bullpen have to offer?
2.  Will CC be the ace the Yankees need?  What does Tanaka have to
offer?  What does Pineda have to offer?
3.  Do Jeter and Teix each have 140+ games in them for this season?
Will Kelly Johnson and/or Brian Roberts be productive?

2014 will be an interesting one.  Let's Go Yankees!!

Ben: Well Jeff, that's a lot to process. Give me a minute to read that. OK, let's discuss...

It looks like we are all in agreement that losing Robbie hurts. One of the knocks on the Yankees is that they can't seem to develop players from within, as you pointed out Jeff. Since the core four, Robbie is really the only guy that has produced at a star level. His loss will hurt on the field for the Yankees and off the field for their precious fans.

I'm also happy the Yankees said goodbye to the $189 million limit and went into FU mode spending hundreds of millions of dollars, quite literally. However, I fear their spending might be sub-optimal.  Jeff, you make some great points regarding Ellsbury. There are a lot of question marks there for a $153 million man. However, I slightly disagree with Choo being a better alternative. Although Ellsbury relies on his speed, players like him actually tend to age well and he plays a more premier position whereas Choo is relegated to the corners. However part II, the Yankees already have a B-Grade Ellsbury in Gardner. 

I'm a fan of the McCann signing, it rights a wrong in letting Russ leave last year. I am also excited by Tanaka but I think I would prefer what Steve mentioned in spreading the wealth around a little more evenly. Assuming their offseason is done, the Yankees still have some alarming holes considering all the money that was spent. 

With all of that said, do you guys think the Yankees offseason is done? Will they get another reliever? It's hard to imagine the Yankees entering the season with their current infield. Any potential trade targets you see, either around the corner or during the season?

Steve: The remaining market on free agent relief pitchers is paper thin. Dotel, K-Rod, Frank Frank, Marmol, Farnsworth...yuck. I kinda like the idea of giving a one-year deal to Oliver Perez, who had something of a renaissance last year in Seattle. But the Yankees already have their lefty in Matt Thornton.

Looking at the deals given out recently to Jason Hammel and Scott Baker, one-year deals for less than 10 mill, why not grab someone like Paul Maholm for cheap. Keep David Phelps in the swingman role, strengthening the bullpen a bit while adding an insurance starter. Barry Zito is out there too, just sayin.

Honestly, the options look limited at this point. Chase Headley's name has been thrown around, which would be a great fit if not a major upgrade. Brett Gardner will be the trade chip until he's gone. And the Yanks have a few pieces close to the bigs that might entice. Would love to see them make an infield upgrade, but it's hard to see where it can be done. Guys?

Ben: The relievers that available are pretty middling. But you might be on to something by strengthening the rotation a tad. Paul Maholm has a lot of faults, soft tossing fly ball lefties in Yankee Stadium aren't the greatest, but it would give the Yankees a few extra bullets for their 5th starter. 

But, if they're going to look at other pitcher options, why not think bigger at a guy like Ubaldo Jiminez? I'm less interested in Bronson Arroyo (for obvious reasons) and Ervin Santana (fly-ball prone) but if the Yankees are going to open up the bank why stop at just over the $189 and not go all in with Ubaldo? Ubaldo has been very up and down in his career and here is certainly some worry about his 2nd half last year being more of a blip than a trend but he's also rumored to be going to Toronto. Snagging a competitors target while solidifying the rotation sounds like a very Yankees-esque move to finish a very Yankees-esque offseason. 

I would run for the woods if I was a team with a smaller budget or a team that would be relying on Ubaldo to duplicate his 2014 but the Yankees just need a solid 4th or 5th starter and Ubaldo would be one of the league's best in that role. David Phelps is a capable and intriguing-ish quasi-innings eater (high praise, right?) and Michael Pineda is still lingering around for sure but I'd prefer having them as backup plans which inevitably come to fruition when talking about starting pitchers staying healthy. 

As far as the IF is concerned, Headley is a name that keeps coming up. I imagine the Yankees have an eye on him but are worried about his 2013 season. Maybe they're waiting to see if he can turn it around this season before engaging in some trade talks, even if that will make his price higher.  

None of the Yankees current prospects are too good to give up, and although we've talked about how they need to improve their farm and get some young talent in there, the greatest value the Yankees prospects could give based on the current model is a trade. But the IF options look a little meager. Depending on what happens with the Cubs and Reds however, Jeff Samardzija and Homer Bailey start looking like some trade targets...

Jeff: Great responses all, I'm enjoying this!

As may have been implied from my first response I am very iffy about the bullpen going into this season; in particular I'm not very confident with Robertson as closer.  Would be very interesting if they can develop once stud SP prospect Betances into a closer (his numbers were very good in AAA once he was converted into a reliever I believe (writing this from my phone and can't look up)).  I would like the Oliver Perez signing (why does the bullpen have to be restricted to only one lefty reliever?) and was really hoping to see the Yanks sign Crain.  Fernando Rodney (I don't think he's signed yet?) might be intriguing too.  Like I said earlier, strength of bullpen really depends on second Yankees seasons of Shawn Kelley and Preston Clairborne.  

As far as the infield goes, also as I wrote previously, not feeling confident at all in having both Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts slated as starters.  Yankees options also become thinner if they are going to try and sign another infielder with Michael Young retiring (for the record, I would've preferred the Yankees signing Young over Youk last season).  They could always resign Mark Reynolds and have him split with Kelly Johnson?  Nothing very exciting out there and nothing exciting in the farm system.  With all of the excess outfielders and the terse infield depth I would have enjoyed seeing the Brett Gardner for Brandon Phillips swap happen.  

As far as the SP go, I am hoping Pineda fits in as the 4/5 the Yankees need right now.  I don't think the Yankees should go out and sign Ubaldo (as I think he is overrated) or Ervin Santana (as Ben pointed out very fly ball prone).  What I would like to see is the Yanks make a move for Justin Masterson out of Cleveland (either through FA or trade).  I think Masterson is a better version of Chien Ming Wang and his propensity for ground balls would work very well at Yankees Stadium.  He really took the step up in Cleveland last year and could be a solid #2 in the Yankees rotation for years to come.  His name excites me a lot more than Homer Bailey or Jeff Samardzija (Ben suggestions).  

One note that I didn't mention in my first response is my new appreciation for Joe Girardi.  Was not a huge fan of his as a manager prior to last season (even with the WS in 2009).  What he did with the team last season considering all of he injuries and age was brilliant, and I look forward to Girardi being manager for many years to come.

Steve: Good stuff, Jeff.

I'm not worried about Robertson at closer. Obviously you don't replace Mo (good call bringing that up). But D-Rob has been one of the best relievers in the game for the last few years and I don't see why he can't bring that into the ninth. It'll be the 7th, 8th to worry about now. Maybe they avoided the Rodney/Balfour types to give Robertson some confidence going into the ninth inning role, but that'll prove to be a mistake. Agree that Crain would have been a great get.

I'm not on board with acquiring Brandon Phillips' decline. I know the hole at 2B is huge, but Gardner is just a straight-up more valuable piece. I'd way rather see him used to net someone like Bailey. I agree that Masterson is a nice trade target, but I see Bailey as head and shoulders above him.

At this point, if the Yanks are gonna spend more money, it's gotta be for the infield, and Stephen Drew is the guy. Cashman said the "heavy lifting" is over, so maybe they really are done spending. If they do, it's gotta be for Drew. I'd be surprised if they spent more for Ubaldo/Arroyo.

Ben: Unfortunately Mark Reynolds signed with Milwaukee (as did Lyle Overbay) and similarly, Carlos Pena was given a minor league deal by the Angels. With Mark Teixeira's wrist supposed to hurt him at least for the first half of the season, it's unfortunate the Yankees let both of those guys go elsewhere. If Teixeira misses any time this season the Yankees are going to be in big, big trouble. Their options include another Overbay-esque type player or Soriano/Beltran with a first base mitt. #notgood.

I'm not worried about Robertson closing for this team but I am worried about their bullpen. As Jeff says, the Yankees have some intriguing options in Preston Claiborne and Dellin Betances but you would like more intrigue with the mop-up and have someone else to rely on in the later innings. I think the contract that the Rays gave Balfour would have been awesome in NY, even if the Yankees would have to spend a little bit more. I'm not necessarily a fan of giving up a draft pick to help the relief, but the Yankees need to do something to improve the pen. I don't believe they need a "proven closer" but they need good pitchers in the pen, and right now that's a debatable statement. 

I would love for the Yankees to sign Stephen Drew. I don't actually think he's all that great but the Yankees are relying on sticks and glue and the aura of Derek Jeter. As we mentioned, if they are going to break open the bank, then break it open. The draft pick is valuable and would be going to Boston which would kind of suck, but so would missing out on the post season again. 

As for Brandon Phillips, I think Gardner is a better player and I wouldn't make that kind of deal as is. I do like Bailey though, and depending on if/when the Reds realize they messed up this whole offseaon and want to reset, why not think big? A big deal acquiring Bailey and Phillips for Gardner and a couple of their prospects that disappointed in 2013 (Williams, Austin, Heathcott) could maybe get the job done although it's likely unrealistic as of now. 

While I would like the Yankees to do more heavy lifting, Cashman's statement is likely accurate as there isn't much lifting to be done really, outside of Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jiminez and Ervin Santana. I refuse to even add Arroyo's name to that mix, as an announcement of him on the Yankees would make me nauseous. 

The Yankees course of action might be to push their luck and if it breaks (or when Brian Roberts inevitably gets hurt) to take a look at the midseason trade market. One thing is for sure, the Yankees are going to be on MLBTraderumors.com all year long.