At 8:07 PM, and most likely at least a few minutes after, the Royals and A's will face off in the American League wild card play-in game. The most thrilling playoff games are undoubtedly the game sevens (or I suppose the game fives in the 'first' round in the playoffs or if you can remember, the first round in the old NBA playoff format) and as a one-game playoff we're essentially getting an immediate game seven. This should be fun.
It would be fun if the matchups weren't exciting but they most certainly are, and it starts with the guys on the mound. The A's and Royals are fortunate enough to throw their best starters on the mound for the biggest game of their season. The A's are sending out their mid-season ace acquisition, Jon Lester while the Royals have their 2013 offseason acquisition James Shields on the bump.
An ace is a funny and elusive title with pretty arbitrary definitions. Is the ace simply the best starter on a team meaning there are 30 and only 30 aces at any given time? Is an ace one of the top 20 starters in the league? Is an ace someone that simply is consistent and provides innings for his team throughout the season, saving the bullpen for the rest of the team? It's certainly arbitrary but by any definition you would like to choose, Jon Lester and James Shields are very good starting pitchers and most likely can be defined as aces.
On Boston and Oakland this year, Lester has thrown 219.2 innings this year, pitching to a phenomenal 2.46 ERA. ERA, as we all know, can be a misleading statistic, but Lester's peripheral numbers back it up with a 2.80 FIP, 3.10 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA. Overall, according to Fangraphs, he's been worth 6.1 WAR. Shields, while not as good as Lester, has been great himself pitching to a 3.21/3.59/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP line while being worth 3.7 WAR in 227 innings pitched.
If you care about the sort of thing, both players could be defined as "clutch." James Shields has earned the nickname "Big Game James" and won a World Series game in 2008, but he also has a disappointing 4.98 ERA in 34.1 postseason innings. Meanwhile Jon Lester has a 2.11 ERA in 76.2 postseason innings, while also winning 4 games on the Red Sox run to the World Series last year. Whether or not the numbers back up the narrative and whether or not you believe such a thing, neither player will be backing away from the moment.
I would easily say that the A's have the starting pitching advantage here, but in a one-game playoff with a fully rested bullpen, the starting pitcher doesn't have as much of impact or at least shouldn't have as much as an impact if the manager was smart. The Royals probably have the best bullpen in the AL, leading the league in WAR (5.9). The bottom of their bullpen may not be elite but their main guys have been absolutely fantastic all season. Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera setting up Greg Holland is probably the best trio of relievers on any team in baseball. Kelvin Herrera throws over 98 mph consistently and had a 1.41 ERA in 70 IP. Wade Davis had a 1.00 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 72 innings pitched and Greg Holland simply saved 46 of 48 games while striking out over 37% of the batters he faced.
James Shields' biggest strength might be his ability to log tons of above average innings for whichever team he is on but in this one game, the Royals don't need him for another 7+, just four good innings would be enough. Jon Lester is the better pitcher but James Shields + that bullpen is good.
Sean Doolittle is as good a closer as they come, but the Athletics bullpen although certainly not a weakness, isn't in the same class as Kansas City. They have a lower ERA (2.90 compared to 3.30 for KC) but that could also be a part of the ballpark and defense. Luke Gregerson and Dan Otero setting up Doolittle is quite delicious, don't get me wrong, but Herrera/Davis/Holland could go down as the new Nasty Boys, if the Royals were to make a run here.
Of course, there will be players hitting the baseball, and that's where the Athletics have the edge. It's not a major advantage, but the A's as a team had a 101 wRC+ this season, compared to 94 wRC+ for the Royals. A team's total stats for a season against righties and lefties isn't too indicative of what to expect in one game but the A's hold the edge with the bat regardless. Against lefties (Jon Lester), the Royals had a 97 wRC+ and against righties (James Shields) the A's had a 102 wRC+. It's not a large advantage, but the Athletics undoubtedly hit the ball better than the Royals.
The Royals have great base running but very little power and on base ability. Their team .263 batting average was second in the American League but their .314 OBP ranked 10th and their .376 SLG ranked only 11th. The Royals get on base via the base hit, but not necessarily the double. They do get to second on the steal however, with the most stolen bases (153) in the AL by a 30 steal margin. The Royals hitting isn't the optimal way to score runs but it 'worked' for them this season. However, their singles approach may not find as many holes against the A's solid defense. According to UZR, the Royals actually had the best team defense in the AL this year and the A's fifth, but the A's aren't as reliant on batting average and singles to generate their offense.
Assuming the Royals don't allow Shields pitch for more than four (or at most five) innings, they have the overall pitching advantage. However, even with that edge, they might struggle to line up enough hits against Jon Lester and the A's solid bevy of relievers. The A's are no longer the station to station and wait for a dinger team that people pegged them as during the original Money Ball era, but with Adam Dunn, Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss they can still throw three power hitting lefties at James Shields and the right-handed power relievers of the Royals.
We might hear a few points about how the A's limped into the playoffs and have struggled for the last third of the season, while the Royals are flying high in their first appearance since 1985, but I personally wouldn't put much weight into that line of thinking. Including their second half slide, the A's still scored 157 more runs than their opponents, the highest total in the AL while the Royals' +27 ranked only seventh. The Royals are the feel good story but the A's are the better team. As we know, it's only a one-game series so one swing of the bat could be everything but if I had to pick, I would bet that one swing comes from one of the A's power bats over a string of singles for the Royals.
Prediction: Oakland, 3-2.
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