Astros Making Small But Good Moves

A couple of weeks ago the Astros traded their "closer" Wilton Lopez to the Colorado Rockies for starting pitcher Alex White. I put closer in quotations because closing is more of a role than a skill, and Lopez only received that role because several players ahead of him stunk up the joint. Nonetheless, Lopez has been a solid reliever for the Astros. In the last three seasons Wilton Lopez has pitched 204 innings out of the pen with a 2.64 ERA and a 5.16 K/BB ratio. That's pretty fantastic and only three pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched) had a better K/BB ratio than Lopez last year but I will remind you that Lopez pitched out of the bullpen. Lopez does his job very well and he very well might continue to do it for the Rockies but a rebuilding team isn't going to rebuild around players like Wilton Lopez. 

A rebuilding team might not do it around Alex White either, but whether or not Alex White becomes anything is almost irrelevant. Alex White is a starting pitcher, at least for now. White was drafted by the Indians with the 15th overall pick in 2009. Before the 2010 season Baseball America ranked White as the 65th best prospect and before the 2011 season they ranked him 47th. In July of 2011, White was traded by the Indians in the Ubaldo Jiminez trade and since then White's struggled in the majors. In 30 games (27 starts) and 134.1 innings pitched on the Rockies White's ERA is 6.30 with peripheral numbers that are just as ugly. 

However, White has some good pedigree, a chance to be a starting pitcher and he's both younger and cheaper than Lopez. Those are all good things. Most relievers are failed starters anyway and if White can't stay in the rotation the chances are he can be a solid reliever. Like Lopez, White's arsenal allows him to kill worms at a solid rate (i.e. get ground balls) and although he's lacked control at the major league level, White has a career 2.7 BB/9 in the minors as a starter. At best White can muster it together and provide valuable cheap and cost controlled innings as a starter, at worst he could mimic Wilton Lopez' role out of the pen. 

By no means is this a killer move for the Astros but it's a solid one as Wilton Lopez wasn't going to be on the next good Astros team (if/when it arrives in the AL West).  Also, it has to be mentioned that Lopez missed time last season with an elbow injury. A person that has elbow problems and throws baseballs for a living isn't a great combination. 

Put simply, these are the kind of moves the Astros should make.

And they continue to make them...

Today the Astros made another small but smart trade, swapping  left-handed minor leaguer Rob Rasmussen for John Ely. Acquired as one of the pieces in the midseason Carlos Lee trade, Rasmussen, 23 pitched in 54.1 innings AA Corpus Christi posting a 4.80 ERA. Meanwhile, John Ely has pitched 115.1 innings with a 5.70 ERA in the majors. 

So why was this a good trade?  Although he has an ugly ERA in the major leagues, Ely 26, threw 168.2 innings at AAA this year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA while striking out 165 batters and walking only 36. That's pretty good and enough to be named both the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year award and the Dodgers' Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Ely hasn't been able to fully transfer his stuff to the major league level but it's also worth nothing that his 4.15 FIP might indicate a brighter future if given ample opportunity. The Astros are in a position to afford him that opportunity and with some luck Ely could be a league average pitcher. When you consider the deals that some starters have received recently (Jeremy Guthrie 3 years/$25 million) this looks like a great trade by the Astros. 

Like Alex White and waiver wire pickup Philip Humber, John Ely might not help much but he's cheap and has some upside in the rotation. The Astros are still a ways away but General Manager Jeff Luhnow has shown a knack for pickups on the scrap heap and although the process may be slow, the Astros are certainly in good hands. 

Quick Thoughts

Some quick thoughts on news around the league:

• Cody Ross met with the Rangers last night. Compared to Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, Ross isn't exciting but he's likely to be an above average hitter at a fraction of the price of Hamilton. I don't think the Rangers are going to enter the season without some sort of splash and although Ross isn't a splash, it's a good start.

• Nick Swisher was wined and dined by the Indians this week and will continue to meet with other teams before making a decision. Nothing is imminent in Cleveland, but if they were to sign Swisher, trading Choo for Trevor Bauer and replacing him with Swisher would be a solid move. For what it's worth, if the Indians still needed young pitching this time time next year they could probably do a similar deal with Swisher like they did with Choo.

• Michael Bourn must really hate the Twins. The Phillies and Nationals both entered the offseason with a hole in center field but the Twins filled those needs trading Denard Span to Washingon and Ben Revere to Philadelphia. Bourn remains the best free agent hitter (counting fielding) available and both the Mariners and Rangers might have some interest, but Bourn likely won't make as much money as he expected. An expensive one-year deal for Bourn might be in the best interest for both parties where Bourn can angle again for a multi-year deal next offseason.

• I didn't give my take on the Youkilis signing so here's an abbreviated version: 1) The Yankees don't have A-Rod for the first few months and can't necessarily rely on him when he does return so it's a smart and necessary signing for them. 2) I can finally root for a fellow chosen one. 3) Thus far, the Yankees are intent on getting under the 2014 budget but with all of these one-year deals this offseason and Cano and Granderson free agents next year, what will their roster look like? They have to replace or resign Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis and still don't have a real catcher. They are old. 

• I'd rather spend $80 million on Anibal Sanchez over $147 million for Zack Greinke. Greinke 2010-2012: 604 IP, 3.83 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Sanchez 2010-2012: 587 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. However, I feel I might prefer Shaun Marcum on whatever deal he will receive. Marcum 2010-2012: 520 IP, 3.62 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Macum obviously isn't as durable or as good of a pitcher as Sanchez or Greinke, but I don't think the difference is worth what will likely be over $100 million. Thinking about it now, wouldn't the Royals be better off signing Marcum and keeping Wil Myers? Do I have to answer my own hypothetical question?

The Dickey Trade

Apologies if I'm forgetting a few but the following is a list of things that Mets fans could cheer for in 2012:

• One game behind the Nationals on June 1st
• Johan's no hitter
• R.A. Dickey

That's a short list and now, pending a physical, the Mets will be without Dickey for 2013. 

The Mets will undoubtedly be less interesting to watch next year and as much as it may hurt to see Dickey go, it's also probably the best move for the team's future. The Mets apparently tried to resign Dickey but considering the reigning Cy Young Award winner with a 2.95 ERA over the last three seasons only wanted $30 million for three years, it's hard to imagine the Mets really wanted to keep Dickey. Maybe they felt Dickey was too old, maybe they felt it would be silly to spend money now on a team that can't win, or maybe the Mets are just broke. I don't know the answer but the fact remains the Mets couldn't (in their mind) keep Dickey. With that in place, trading him, Josh Thole and a prospect to the Blue Jays for Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and another prospect is a smart move for the Metsies. 

About Those Prospects

Travis d'Arnaud entered 2012 ranked as the #17 prospect by Baseball America.  Unfortunately he tore a knee ligament in June but in 303 plate appearances for AAA Las Vegas d'Arnaud hit .333/.380/.595 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Las Vegas is often home to some awesome stats as Dave Cameron points out, but d'Arnaud is one of the top prospects in baseball and maybe more importantly, he plays a position (catcher) that the Mets are in dire need of. 

I'd be lying if I said I was fluent in all things Noah Syndergaard before hearing the Jays and Mets were discussing a R.A. Dickey trade. Nonetheless, the kid can pitch. Before the season, Baseball America ranked Syndergaard as the Jays seventh best prospect and having the best fastball in their system. Also, just a month ago, Marc Hulet ranked him as the third best prospect on the Jays. Syndergaard might not develop secondary pitches to stay in the rotation but at worst he'll be an effective reliever with a big boy fastball and at best he can sit towards the top of the Mets rotation.  

As well all know, potential is just potential and There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect but come 2015 the Mets could have an every day catcher who can hit and a pitcher joining Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in a formidable rotation. However you want to slice it, it's a good return for Dickey, a player who by the way the Mets were playing it, wasn't necessarily going to be on the team in 2014. 

Win Win

For several years now Alex Anthopoulos and Jays and have been building for the future -- trading Roy Halladay for what in turn became Travis d'Arnaud and Anthony Gose, upgrading Brandons in trading League for Morrow, signing Jose Bausita to a five-year $65 million deal, getting rid of Vernon Wells and his contract and buying low on Colby Rasmus. Like any General Manager or player, Anthopoulos hasn't batted 1.000, but damn has he come close. 

Of course building for the future will only be a perpetual place holder unless the future becomes the present and that's exactly what Anthopoulos has done this offseason. Starting with the mega-deal with the Marlins and ending (for the moment) with acquiring R.A. Dickey, the Jays have gone from intriguing team to AL East favorite in a matter of months. You can argue about Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle being overpaid, mention Dickey's old age or bring up Josh Johnson's injury history and make some decent points but when you're in the Jays position, those are the type of risks that could be extremely profitable. The Jays smelled the blood with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays* all taking steps back and regardless of what their 2013 results are, the Jays process was smart and sound. 

*Yes, the Orioles made the postseason last year but I'm still not a believer. Sorry O's fans. 

Unlike games, trades don't have to have a winner and a loser and in this case both Mets and the Jays are winners. The 2015 Mets have a brigther future than they did a week ago and the Jays roster is looking pretty, pretty good.

Rotation

SP1: R.A. Dickey

SP2: Josh Johnson

SP3: Brandon Morrow 

SP4: Mark Buehrle 

SP5: Rickey Romero

Lineup

1. Jose Reyes - SS

2. Melky Cabrera - LF

3. Jose Bautista - RF

4. Edwin Encarnacion - 1B

5. Colby Rasmus - CF

6. Brett Lawrie - 3B

7. Adam Lind - DH

8. J.P. Arencibia - C

9. Emilio Bonifacio - 2B

The Jays might not have the best rotation or lineup in the league, but their combination might be the most impressive. The Yankees won't go down without a fight and the Rays always manage to figure something out (even if they downgraded with the Shields trade) but anyone denying the Jays as AL East favorite is just used to how things used to be. 

Ugh

It's days like today where I'm thankful I can blabber about baseball to an audience, however small it may be. But it's also a day I choose not to.  I can't fathom what it's like for the families and people of Newtown and I don't pretend to. We only have right now and in this moment my thoughts are with my loved ones and the ones who have been lost.

Kindergartners are supposed to worry about how comfortable their nap mat is and if they want to trade their Yoo-Hoo at lunch. 

On one hand I feel it might be 'too soon' to have a discussion but I also fear we're constantly too late. We can't prevent crazy but we can certainly try to disarm it.

RIP children. 

Josh Hamilton to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Last year the Rangers let starter C.J. Wilson leave via free agency and he signed with the Angels.

This year the Rangers let outfielder Josh Hamilton leave via free agency and he signed with the Angels.

I'm sensing a strong rivalry here. We can't forget that the Angels have lost 60% of their starting rotation, so it's not safe to say who's best team in the division. Which is also kind of funny to say because the A's won the division last year. 2013 is going to be fun. 

The Rangers might feel this way after hearing
the news.

Alex Anthopoulos and Brian Cashman get a lot of credit for being ninjas, making large offseason moves without anyone expecting it, but Angels GM Jerry Dipoto is as ninja as they come. The Angels have now signed the best available free agent hitter (and likely best overall player) the last two offseasons, and nobody saw it coming. Now, whether or not signing Josh Hamilton to a $125 million contract for five years is a smart decision remains to be seen but what we can see is that the Angels have a lot of money to spend. 

We can also see that the Angels have a terrific lineup. What ever happened to pitching and defense? I guess Scioscia will have to adjust. For now, their lineup might look something like the following:

1. Mike Trout - CF
2. Howie Kendrick - 2B
3. Albert Pujols - 1B
4. Josh Hamilton - RF
5. Kendry Morales - DH
6. Mark Trumbo - LF
7. Alberto Callaspo - 3B
8. Chris Iannetta - C
9. Erik Aybar - SS

That's not bad. In fact it's pretty fantastic. Albert Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball for a decade, Mike Trout was the best player in baseball last year and when healthy and not swinging at balls out of the zone, Josh Hamilton is one of the best in the game as well. All three of these guys now hit in the same lineup. This is some pretty remarkable stuff, and I'm on the edge of my seat wondering what Texas' next move will be. Something tells me Nick Swisher is glad he hasn't signed yet.

Back to Hamilton. Josh Hamilton is about as risky as a position player can come. In fact, if Hamilton had no history of drug abuse, he'd still be considered a significant risk as he's no longer young at age 31 and hasn't played a full season in four years. As I mentioned, the Angels lost 60% of their starting rotation (Haren, Greinke, Santana) so one could consider signing Greinke to be a safer or smarter play. If anyone could be considered a greater risk than a pitcher it would be Hamilton, right? While that may be so, I'd still rather put my eggs (or money) in Hamilton's basket over someone relying on their pitching arm. 

Since 2010 Hamilton has averaged 5.8 fWAR and 5.1 rWAR per season. As for Greinke, people can't seem to make up their mind how valuable he's been averaging 4.7 fWAR, 3.1 RA9-Wins and 2.6 rWAR over that time. However, judging just the last three years is pretty arbitrary considering it includes Hamilton's MVP year while conveniently missing out on 2009 where he only played in 89 games, the same year that Greinke had the year of his life with a 2.16 ERA and worth well over 9 wins by any measure you would care to use. 

I chose numbers from 2010-2012 to show Hamilton as being a slightly better player recently. You could just as easily choose numbers from 2009-2012 on to show Greinke being a slightly better player. Greinke's contract pays him $24.5 million per season and Hamilton's pays him $25 million per season but the kicker for me is that Hamilton signed for five years while Greinke signed for six. Both have to be considered risks, I'll take the shorter contract.  

We know the Angels have money to spend and if they're going to spend it I've made a case for Hamilton being a smarter play than Greinke. They do still need starting pitchers behind Jered Weaver and whatever remains in Tommy Hanson's right arm so I don't believe their work is finished. Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo are some intriguing trade chips that should fetch the Angels someone to throw 180 average innings if they desired to go that route. Regardless of what they do next though, they now have a terrific lineup, arguably the best in the biz and hurt their division rival in the process. That shouldn't be considered just a small bonus, it's quite large. The Rangers know this, have a lot of money of their own to spend and are likely gearing up their counter-punch as we speak. I'm excited to see what's next - Justin Upton, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher anyone? 2013 is definitely going to be fun. 

Rumors, Rumors, Rumors and Ben Revere

If a trade actually materializes I will be sure to chirp in but right now all we know is that half of the teams in the league are trading for:

• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Justin Upton
• Wil Myers
• R.A. Dickey
• Curtis Granderson
• James Shields

And if teams aren't looking for a blockbuster deal they're looking to sign Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke. 

However, it's not all rumors as one interesting move has been made.

The Phillies, who have been linked with both Michael Bourn and Curtis Granderson have finally found their center fielder in Ben Revere who was traded from the Twins in exchange for Trevor May and Vance Worley. Trevor May is a solid starting pitching prospect and although he struggled in AA this year (4.87 ERA in 159.2 innings) he comes with some nice pedigree, ranking #69 by Baseball America before last season.  Additionally, Vance Worley is an above average starter who should provide some useful innings for the Twins, something they really need. Worley's inability to miss bats (career 5.5% SwStr%) might be a cause for concern for some teams but with the Twins aversion to the stirkeout, they'll gladly take him.

May and Worley is a bit much for a player who might not hit a ball over the fence all year in Ben Revere but he's a terrific CF and is a better play than $75 million for Michael Bourn or whatever his price will end up being. The Phillies didn't break the farm and they now have a cheap starting CF for a few years. 

After trading Denard Span and now Ben Revere, the Twins out field is barren and borderline non-existent. I suppose Josh Willingham can "play" left field, but whether or not he's considered an outfielder is another story. Either way, the Twins traded two outfielders this offseason who weren't stars, have prospect Aaron Hicks likely ready to play CF at some point in 2013 and received three starting pitchers in return. Not bad. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Zack Greinke, Jabari Parker and John Calipari

I'm not calling John Calipari a cheater. Although, I do wonder why UMASS never actually participated in the 1996 NCAA Tournament and why Derrick Rose' technically never played at Memphis. 

Anywho, the point is that I went to Indiana University. That's not the point but it's a start that will get me to the point. Indiana and Memphis (where Calipari coached at the time) were often targeting the same basketball recruits. That's fine, everyone enjoys a competition except for the fact that Memphis always seemed to get their guy. Whether it was Rodney Carney declining to stay in state to play at IU or Derrick Rose deciding to go to Memphis instead of playing with his AAU teammate Eric Gordon, Memphis ended up with their player. IU ended up with Kelvin Sampson, but that's an entirely different post for an entirely different blog. 

I might not be trying to hide the fact (or possible fact) but I'm also not trying to say that Calipari is a cheater. What I am saying is that for whatever reason (maybe it's World Wide Wes) when a recruit is deciding between Calipari and someone else, Calipari wins.*

*Ben's baseball basketball bias could be playing a role here but it was a trend worth watching then, and it remains a trend worth watching now especially as Calipari reloads with the top freshman players every year. However, at Kentucky the script has kind of changed. It's harder to sell someone on UMASS or Memphis - Kentucky can sell itself to the top recruits. It also doesn't hurt to have the best salesperson in the world working for ya in Calipari. Whatever fishy exercises he might have used in the past, Calipari doesn't have to use at Kentucky.  But even though the script has changed the results remain the same for his recruits. 

And this might be happening with the Dodgers. 

Zack Greinke is "going through the process" off his free agent tour but is there any doubt where he will sign? With the way the Dodgers are running things at this point, are they really going to let a few million bucks get in the way of signing their target? 

I'm sure Jabari Parker will go through his recruiting process but I'd also bet on him going to Kentucky. There is a great joke here talking about how Kentucky also won't let a few million bucks get in the way of signing their target, but I won't take that low hanging fruit. Sometimes fruit tastes delicious though. 

The Angels want Greinke. The Rangers want Greinke. The Dodgers want Greinke. The Dodgers might make $280 million per year on TV revenue alone. The Dodgers are signing Greinke. 

It's easy to hate Calipari and the Dodgers for how they conduct their business but the two are just playing by the rules...for the most part. I don't particularly like Stuart Scott but sometimes you can't hate the playa, you have to hate the game. 

John Calipari and Kentucky always get their guy. It seems as though the Dodgers for the foreseeable future will too. Damn. 

UPDATE 3:40 PM I forgot to mention how I'm a Yankee fan and as a Yankee fan, I understand why some (or all) fans would hate them, or us in this case. That doesn't preclude me from being a baseball fan who is feeling slightly disappointed that Greinke will probably play in Los Angeles instead of the Anaheim section of Los Angeles.

UPDATE: 1/16 3:30PM So Greinke signed with the Dodgers and Parker signed with Duke. I can't say this makes me happy as Parker went to Duke, but it's nice to know that Calipari can't always get what Calipari wants. Oh wait, new #1 prospect Andrew Wiggins is still available, and Cal is interested? Oy vey!

Dan Haren to Washinton

Last year the Washington Nationals had one of the best starting rotations in the league. Actually, they arguably had the best rotation in baseball given that they led the NL in ERA, led the MLB in FIP, had the 4th best xFIP in the majors and the second most FIP-WAR in baseball. Not bad. If you care about RA9-Wins, the Nationals rotation was still great, finishing just behind the Rays for the second most in baseball.

Last year the Nationals also signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal to be their 4th starter.  Edwin Jackson threw 189.2 innings with a 99 FIP-, helping the Nationals rotation which helped the team to the best record in baseball (98 - 64). 

Edwin Jackson is now looking for a multi-year deal and therefore won't be returning to Washington in 2013. In his place the Nationals signed another pitcher to a one-year deal and this time it's Dan Haren who received a one-year $13 million contract.  Dan Haren wasn't great last year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA in 176.2 innings with secondary stats that suggested he wasn't just unlucky (4.24 FIP/4.00 xFIP). It's well documented that Dan Haren struggled from a back injury which clearly shows up in his stats and his velocity-Haren's average fastball velocity was 88.5 mph this year, down from the consistent 90 mph velocity he showed previously.  

It's why the Angels didn't pick up Dan Haren's option, even though they are in desperate need of starting pitching and it's why he only received a one-year deal from the Nationals. For the previous five years, Haren was one of the best (if not most underrated) starting pitchers in baseball. There was a reason why the Diamondbacks traded Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Andreson Chris Carter and three other players for Haren in 2007, although the Diamondbacks may regret giving up that much. 

Back injuries. Those are never good, especially for  pitchers, as David Wells' game 5 of the 2003 World Series against he Marlins can illustrate. It's unlikely that Haren, with back worries at age 33 will return to his ace-like status for the Nationals but it's also unlikely that they will need that. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez are three top pitchers, the Nationals don't need a fourth top pitcher.  Edwin Jackson threw ~190 innings in 2012 at a league average level and helped the Nationals win the division. An unhealthy Dan Haren threw ~175 innings at a slightly below league average level. If Dan Haren pitches just 5 to 10% better, this will be a solid one-year deal for the Nationals. If Haren returns closer to his pre-2012 form, this will be a fantastic sign for the Nationals.

Overall, I'm a big fan of one-year contracts. I'm also a big fan of getting guys that have performed at a top level recently, especially if we know the reason why they slipped. We know Dan Haren slipped because of his back, we don't know if he will come back (pun intended) but either way this move is unlikely to hurt the Nationals and has a decent chance of really helping. 

Live Blogging Monday

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville started today. You can expect a lot of news over the next week. Stay tuned as I live blog some updates and commentary throughout the day.

11:57 am: The Rays signed James Loney for 1-year $2 million. Loney has been a disappointing hitter throughout his career posting a meager career 103 wRC+ which simply isn't enough production from first base. With that said, now on the Rays I fully expect James Loney to get playing time in mid-April and finish with the best season of his career. I kid, I kid, sort of.

12:06 pm: The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli to a three-year $39 million deal. Napoli should be a beast in Fenway and fills their first base need. While this might be a slight overpay given Napoli's 2012 season, Napoli should receive consistent playing time primarily at first, something he hasn't really had his entire career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nap come closer to his fantastic 2011 season when he batted  .320/.414/.631.

12:15 pm: Alex Rodriguez is having hip surgery (again) and this time he is expected to miss more time, potentially 3-6 months. The Yankees now have a big need on the left side of the infield to say the least. With Jeter also recovering from injury, Eduardo Nunez and Eric Chavez can't be expected to hold down the fort for an extended period of time. Stephen Drew has been linked with the Yankees and with the recent A-Rod news I'd wager he's a near lock to sign with them very soon. It's also likely that we will start hearing some big names like Chase Headley mentioned in rumors. Stay tuned.

2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot has been released by the Baseball Writers Association of America which means two things:

1. A lot of bickering on the internet.
2. A splendid analysis of everyone on the ballot by yours truly.
3. A reminder of how outdated the BWAA website is. 

If you're interested in my previous ballot, check it out here. 

Without further ado!

Sandy Alomar Jr.: No. For a four-year stretch in the 90's, on those awesome Cleveland teams Sandy Alomar Jr. was a very solid, albeit part-time catcher. From 1994-1997 Alomar Jr. averaged a .294/.332/.478 line. Very solid from the catcher position but unfortunately Alomar Jr. didn't achieve much after that. However, since 2009 Alomar Jr. has been a coach on the Indians so there is still plenty of time for him to get a managerial position, win a bunch of World Series titles and enter the Hall as a coach. Maybe.  

This is gross. 

Jeff Bagwell: Yes. This will be Bagwell's third year on the ballot. In 2011 Bagwell received 41.7% of the votes and last year that was upped to 56%. It's an encouraging trend but it's a shame that it's even a discussion as Bagwell is simply one of the best and most dynamic first basemen to ever play the game. Although he played in the "steroid" era his career OPS+ (which adjust for league and park effects) was an astounding 149. He has a Rookie of the Year award and a MVP. The 1994 strike also cut short one of the best seasons ever by a first basemen. In 110 games Bagwell batted .368/.451/.750. His OPS+ was over 200 (213), a number that's only been topped by Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. Pretty good company. His per 162 games played would have given Bagwell 57 HR, 170 RBI and 153 Runs. Nobody enters the Hall of Fame because of one season (Roger Maris) but Bagwell was great his entire career, he deserves to have a speech at Cooperstown. 

Craig Biggio: Yes. If the writers were waiting for Biggio to get on the ballot before voting in Bagwell so the two of them could enter together then I will forgive them for shamelessly leaving Bagwell off. Anywho, back to Biggio...Although he was more of a stats accumulator in the second half of his career, Biggio was still a fantastic player deserving to enter the Hall with 3,060 hits 291 HR, 414 stolen bases and an OPS+ of 112. From 1993-1999 Biggio averaged .303/.397/.473 with 116 runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI and 34 SB. Not bad.

A slimmer Bonds

Barry Bonds: Yes. Barry Lamar Bonds' chances lie in how the voters feel about those pesky little steroids. I personally don't put my moral hat on and blame players for using substances that they had every incentive to use but I guess to each his own. Before using steroids Bonds' was the best player in the game and after using steroids Bonds was the best player of all time. We all know about his fantastic resume but here are some interesting tidbits:

• In 2004 Bonds was intentionally walked 120 times. In 2012 Adam Dunn led all of baseball with 105 walks.
• From 2001-2004 Bonds averaged .349/.559/.809.
• Bonds has 7 MVPs with three coming from 1993 or earlier.
• In his last season at age 42 in 2007 Bonds had a .480 OBP, an OPS over 1.000 and a 169 OPS+. 
• Bonds has 514 stolen bases which is more than Roberto Alomar, Eric Young, Delino Deshields and Ichiro. 

Hey voters, please get off your high horse and vote the guy in. 

Jeff Cirillo: No. On Colorado in 2000, Jeff Cirillo had 53 doubles and he didn't lead the league because his teammate Todd Helton had 59. Cirillo was a two time all-star, knew how to get on-base and seemed to be an all around good guy but a Hall of Famer he is not. 

Royce Clayton: No. Clayton played for 17 years in the big leagues on 11 different teams which is quite an accomplishment but probably not quite as cool as playing Miguel Tejada in Moneyball.

Roger Clemens: Yes. The pitching version of Barry Bonds and like Bonds, one could make a case that Clemens is the best at his position of all time and a likely Hall of Famer if his career ended before taking steroids. At this point debating the legitimacy of Clemens' Hall of Fame case is boring, really boring. A more exciting topic is debating Clemens vs. Maddux.  Who do you choose? 

Jeff Conine: No. The Marlins have never won a title without Mr. Marlin himself so one has to wonder if the Marlins would break up the team this year if they had a 46-year old Conine chilling in the dugout. In 2001 on the Orioles Jeff Conine hit .311 with 14 HR, 97 RBI  and 12 steals. In 2002 a naive Ben Pasinkoff drafted him onto his fantasy team thinking he could repeat that. In 2003 Ben felt vindicated when Conine belted 20 HR with 95 RBI. In 2004 Ben stopped thinking about Jeff Conine until now. 

Steve Finley: No. In 2004 some people complimented the Angels for signing a 40-year old Steve Finley to a two-year $14 million deal to play CF instead of spending all of that money on Carlos Beltran. A few years later Finley was out of baseball. Steve Finley was a good player who went to Arizona in his 30s in 1999 with Luis Gonzalez and put together the best run of his career.  Like Luis Gonzalez he's not a HOFer but 300 career home runs and over 2,500 hits is nothing to sneeze about. 

Julio Franco: No. I was pulling for Julio to play until he was 50 years old but he only managed to play until he was 48 years. Franco played in parts of 23 seasons, coming up as a shortstop on the Phillies and Indians and finishing as a pinch hitting first basemen on the Braves. There are many players who have had better careers than Julio Franco but I can't imagine many who have had a more interesting one. 

After the strike in 1994, a 34 year-old Franco went to play in Japan, returning to the major leagues for the 1996 season. In 1997, now at 38 years of age, Franco looked finished and returned to Japan for the 1998 season. In 1999 Franco managed to get one at bat with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (as they were called at the time) but was back playing ball overseas, this time in South Korea in 2000. The following year, a 43 year old Franco was in the Mexican League batting .437 with 18 HR in 110 games which was good enough to get back to the Majors this time with the Atlanta Braves. Franco was then with the Braves as a defensive replacement and pinch-hitter until 2005. For the 2006 season the Mets did a move that only the Mets would do, handing out a 2-year contract to a 47 year old player. Franco played on the Mets in 2006 and was released the following year before finishing up with the Braves in 2007. 

Considering he played until age 48, Franco's career average of .298 is quite impressive. If nothing else, Franco's story deserves to be told in Cooperstown. #NeverForget

Shawn Green: No. As a Jew who played RF and fantasy baseball, it's hard to come by a cooler player to root for then Shawn Green. While he shouldn't make the Hall, Shawn Green should take solace in the fact that he's in my personal Hall of Awesome. 

I thought this would
make me rich.

Roberto Hernandez: No. Since Ben Grieve and I shared the same name and played the same position, you could imagine how much I loved him as a kid. I made sure to collect ALL of his baseball cards. Especially the rookie cards, I loved the rookie cards because he was going to be a star and I was going to follow his coattails to the bank. After winning the ROY in year 1998 I held onto my Ben Grieves for dear life. He was going to be a star. At least until he was traded to Tampa Bay in a three-team deal to Kansas City that got Johnny Damon to Oakland. Then Ben Grieve was mediocreand I grew up and stopped collecting baseball cards. So is life. 

What does this have to do with Roberto Hernandez? He was involved in that three-team trade, and his connection to my former favorite player is the most interesting part of his career.  For me. 

I have this card somewhere. 

Ryan Klesko: No. Ryan Klesko was ranked the 3rd best prospect in Baseball America's Pre-1991 Rankings. In their Pre-1994 Rankings Klesko was ranked 15th. In 1994 Klesko finished third in the ROY voting putting up a solid 130 OPS+ in 92 games. In 1995 Klesko only played in 107 games but hit. 310/.396/.608 with a 158 OPS+ at age 24 and also hit 3 home runs in the World Series for the Braves .  Klesko seemed to have star potential but unfortunately was never able to stay on the field for 150 games and only made one all-star game in his career (2001 with San Diego). Klesko finished his career batting .279/.370/.500 with a 128 OPS+ over the course of 16 seasons, which is pretty darn good but will sadly go down in history as a forgotten slugger. 

Kenny Lofton: No. But gosh darn it did I almost say yes. It was really a coin-flip although I never actually flipped a coin. Lofton finished his career hitting .299/.372/.423 with 2,428 hits. His 66.2 fWAR ranks 14th all time among center fielders and ahead of Carlos Beltran and Andre Dawson. Lofton set the table for those superbly awesome Indians lineups in the 90s that I mentioned with Sandy Alomar Jr. and at his peak, Lofton was one of the most exciting players in the game leading the league in steals from 1992-1996. Like so many other players, Lofton's best season was cutoff in 1994 when he hit .349/.412/.536 with 60 SB in 112 games. You just don't see too many 20 HR/80 SB seasons (Ricky Henderson in 1985 and 1986; Eric Davis 1986). While I wish this won't be the last time we talk about Kenny Lofton and won't argue with anyone who puts him on their ballot, he just missed the cut for me. I obviously don't have a vote but you are only allowed to vote for 10 players and with this being Lofton's first year I have to pass. 
  
Edgar Martinez: Yes. Yes, Edgar played DH but I don't know of any rule that precludes someone from making the Hall of Fame if they didn't play the field. If Edgar played in the NL or simply butchered it at 1b, we wouldn't care and we would gush about his hitting stats. I say we just cut to the chase and just gush about his hitting stats.  Check for yourself. 

Don Mattingly: No. Donnie Baseball is a Hall of Fame nickname and I'd like to think it's the grandfather of Johnny Football. 

Whole milk > Skim milk

Fred McGriff: No. As I said last year, I don't believe in arbitrary milestones to merit automatic inclusion into the Hall, so even if The Crime Dog had 500 HR I still wouldn't put him in. However, speaking of Hall of Fame nicknames, The Crime Dog might just top the list. And there is always this. 

Mark McGwire: Yes. I can only judge a player for what they did on the field and Mark McGwire, although incredibly one-dimensional, was one of the best ever at that dimension - 583 HR and a 162 OPS+.

Jose Mesa: No. In 1995 Jose Mesa saved 46 games with a 1.13 ERA. He finished 2nd in the Cy Young Award voting and 4th for MVP. By 1997 he was no longer closing games. Then from 2001-2005 from ages 35-39 Jose Mesa saved 36 games a year for the Phillies. Lesson: Relievers are pretty fickle. 

Jack Morris: No. If you want to believe that a pitcher would pitch to the score, hurting his ERA and his earning potential that's fine. I don't and I don't believe Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer. 

Dale Murphy: No. This is Murphy's last year on the ballot and with only 14.5% of the vote last year it looks like his only chances will be with the Veterans Committee. The Hall of the Very Good

Only you can prevent forest fires.

Rafael Palmeiro: No. His Viagra commercial isn't the main reason why I wouldn't vote him in but it certainly didn't help. I take Fielding practice, I take hitting practice, I take Viagra...and steroids. Still, I'm not holding it against him that he was caught with steroids, I prefer peak value to longevity and Palmeiro was a very solid 1b for many years, but not quite good enough to make it for me. 

Mike Piazza: Yes. Piazza should be remembered for being one of the best hitting catchers of all time and having to say that he's not gay. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Piazza might be one of the worst fielding catchers and base runners we've ever seen but he also has the most HR and the highest wRC+ at the position. Gay or not and regardless of his bacne, he's a Hall of Famer. 

Tim Raines: Yes.  I feel that Tim Raines is like Kenny Lofton but 5% better, so he makes it onto my ballot. If you need to be convinced that he's worthy, check this out. 

Reggie Sanders: No. Along with Steve Finley mentioned above, Reggie Sanders is one of six players to have 300 HR and 300 SB. Along with Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders isn't a Hall of Famer. 

Curt Schilling: Yes. It's an understatement to say I'm not his biggest fan but he's also one of the best pitchers of all time. If you care about Wins and Losses to the point where you won't vote in Schilling then you are simply missing the point and probably want Jack Morris in Cooperstown. Schilling ranks 19th of all time with 86.1 fWAR and is 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 post season innings pitched. 

Aaron Sele: No. Aaron Sele threw 2153 innings with a 100 ERA+. He is the definition of the average pitcher. 

It's so real!

Lee Smith: No. When Smith first came on the ballot he had the most saves of all time. Now he's third. Either way, he wasn't a Hall of Famer. 

Sammy Sosa: No. It's easy to lump Sosa and McGwire together, but McGwire was clearly the better hitter. In 2,236 fewer plate appearances McGwire has 388 more walks. A young Sosa did add a lot of value in the field and a little on the base paths, but he more or less hit home runs and nothing else. Sosa's career OPS+ is 128. Adam Dunn? 126. 

Mike Stanton: No. Giancarlo Mike Stanton might be here in 20 years but the lefty doesn't belong. 

I have this in my attic. I think.

Alan Trammell: Yes. We can't hold SS to the same standards as other positions. Trammell is one of the best at the position of all time and deserves it.

Larry Walker: No. Much like the past two years, this was a tough one but I have to pass. It's also required to mention his 1997 season: 366 average, 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals. #FantasyGold. 

Todd Walker: No. In 1996 at AAA Todd Walker hit .339 with 28 HR. In 1998 Todd Walker became the Twins starting second basemen and hit .316/.372/.473 at 25 years old. Walker stuck around for a while longer playing subpar defense and hitting about league average at second, but he never surpassed his first full season.  

David Wells: No. David Wells pitching for the 1998 Yankees was easily the pinnacle of my Yankees child-like fandom. After going 18-4 I was shocked that the Yankees would trade Boomer, Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush for that Roger Clemens guy. Homer Bush! After hitting .380 in a grand total of 71 at bats, twelve year old Ben was convinced that Homer Bush was the future. When he hit .320 the following year on Toronto I was even more convinced. When he hit .215 in 2000 as the Yankees won their third consecutive World Series, I was happy we had the Rocket. Still, Homer Bush!

Rondell White: No. A tools-y top prospect who never quite put it all together but still had a 15-year career as an above average regular. Not bad. 

Bernie Williams: No. Bernabe had a Hall of Fame-esque peak --from 1995-2002 he hit .321/.406/.531 with a 142 OPS+ for many a championship team. However, Bernie basically fell apart after age 33 which isn't uncommon but his peak, although very solid, simply wasn't good or long enough. However, if one wants to give credit to post-career music success, then Bernie is a first balloter. 

Woody Williams: No. Williams threw 2,216.1 innings with a 103 ERA+. He's 3 % better than the average pitcher. Or 3% better than Aaron Sele. 

Recap:
Yeses: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, McGwire, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell 
Close Calls But Nos: Kenny Lofton, Larry Walker
Why the F*ck are you on the ballot: Mike Stanton

Early Evening Roundup

- The Dodgers are acting like the George Steinbrenner era Yankees on steroids. Now we know why:

"it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal"

After they sign Zack Greinke who knows what will follow.
 
- Or maybe it's amphetamines because that's what Carlos Ruiz uses, who's now suspended for the first 25 games next year.

- The Mets are in serious talks with David Wright about an extension:

sources: Mets' offer to David Wright is 7 years about $135-140M
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 27, 2012

This is a smart move. It's rare that teams get top value in deals like this, but the Mets need to put something on the field. R.A. Dickey is too old to be around for the-next-great-Mets-team and would be a good guy to dangle in trade talks at peak value. However, David Wright should still be a solid player for a little while to help out, and if the extension can double to make the Mets look respectable in the short term then it's a win-win. Unless they're broke, in which case this is stupid. They might be broke.

- Back from Tommy John surgery, Ryan Madson is healthy and signed a deal with the Angels. Madson should help back end of the Angels bullpen with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs and might even be in line for some saves. I'm sure this will all be in the Bullpen Reports in a few months on RotoGraphs.

- The Red Sox are very busy as they have been linked with Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli and now a trade with the Royals based around Wil Myers for Jon Lester. I like Lester to have a bounce-back year and the Royals need frontline pitching but I'd take 6 years of Wil Myers over two expensive years from Lester any day of the week.

2013 Fantasy Baseball: Top Ten

There will be plenty of fantasy baseball posts from BBB this offseason and it starts with the top 10. These rankings are assuming the standard 5 X 5 categories.

The Big Boys

1.) Ryan Braun: .313/34/107/102/21 - that's what Ryan Braun has averaged over the course of his six-year career. And if that's not enough for you Braun has managed to increase his stolen base output by averaging over 30 steals the last two seasons. Braun is as consistent as they come and doubles as one of fantasy baseball's true five-category players. 23 players stole 30 bases last year and from that group four hit 20 or more home runs (Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton), two hit 30 or more home runs (Mike Trout) and only Ryan Braun eclipsed the 40 home run barrier. Relying on Braun to steal 30+ bags a year as he enters his age 29 season might be a little irresponsible but if Braun never stole another base he would still rank as one of the best fantasy hitters in the game.

BBB's Guesstimator: .310/35/110/105/25

2.) Miguel Cabrera: What Miggy lacks in speed he makes up for in winning triple crowns and playing in the American League to help his RBI total. If anyone were to be more consistent than Ryan Braun it's Miggy.  If you were to take his worst numbers from the last four years you would get a .324/30/105/96 line, which is still phenomenal and basically on par with what Adrian Beltre did this year and he was a top 15 player. That's Miguel Cabrera at his worst. For shits and gigs, if you take his best numbers of the last four years you would get a .344/44/139/11 behemoth. The chances are Miggy does something in between and finishes in the top five because that's just what he does. Oh, and I almost forgot, he plays third base.

BBB's Guesstimator: .330/38/120/110/3

Miggy/Braun, Braun/Miggy the order doesn't really matter - if you grab one of these guys with your first pick you won't regret it.

The Natural

3.) Mike Trout: If there is an argument to be made about drafting someone other than Miggy or Braun with the first pick then you're looking at it. Mike Trout led all of baseball in stolen bases and runs last year all while missing most of April. He also managed to find time in his busy schedule to chip in a mere 30 home runs and 83 RBI while batting .326. Not. Too. Shabby. Historically, nobody compares to Trout and that's partially why I have him ranked third. We just don't quite know what to expect other than the fact that he's going to be very, very good. Trout hit 30 homers last year in 139 games but can we expect him to maintain a 21.6% HR/FB on par with Josh Willingham, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera?  At only 21 years old Trout certainly has room to grow but he can also regress. It's the yin and yang with analyzing Mike Trout for 2013. Our brains struggle to comprehend how he could possibly improve yet intellectually we understand that ball players don't peak at 20 years old.

BBB's Guesstimator: .315/26/80/130/55

There are two things I'm sure about regarding Mike Trout for fantasy baseball:

1.) He's going to be good.

2.) The third pick is the best pick in the draft this year. At worst you're "stuck" with the best young player we've ever seen. 

Remember Us? We're Healthy Now. 

4.) Matt Kemp: After getting snubbed in the NL MVP voting in 2011 Kemp vowed to go into "beast mode" in 2012. He didn't disappoint, at least not early on when he hit .417/.490/.893 with 12 HR and 25 RBI in April. Unfortunately Kemp had some hamstring issues that put him on the DL throughout 2012 and he only played in 106 games hitting .303/.367/.538 with 23 HR, 69 RBI and 9 steals. Kemp's hamstrings clearly affected his ability to steal bases but his per 162 game averages of 35 HR and 105 RBI were nothing to sneeze about in 2012. I fully expect Kemp to hit like has over the last two years with the stolen base output being a little bit of a wild card as he's gone up and down from 34 steals to 19 to 41 to 9 over the last four years. Like Braun and Trout, Kemp is a true 5 category monster and he deserves to be ranked this high even with a few warts.

BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/110/100/25

5.) Joey Votto: Votto would certainly be more valuable in an OBP fantasy league where he's averaged a .429 OBP over the last four years, but he's still plenty good enough to rank fifth on my list. Votto isn't likely to match the 37 HR he had in 2010 but not many players hit the ball as hard and as often as Votto does, always ranking among the league leaders in LD%.  Votto can run a little at first base and in the middle of a solid Reds lineup will consistently put up solid Runs and RBI totals.

BBB's Guesstimator: .325/25/110/100/10

Entering the Prime

6.) Robinson Cano: Since 2007 the least amount of games that Cano has played in has been 159. The dude just doesn't miss games and has seen his ISO (Isolated Power) increase over the last five seasons as well. Cano still doesn't steal any bases but his increased power and consistency has made up for it in my mind. Cano had the best year of his fine career in 2012 and I fully expect him to build on that in 2013. Cano would merit a high pick if he played first base, the fact that he's doing it at second base makes him one of fantasy baseball's best.

BBB's Guesstimator: .315/33/100/100/5

7.) Andrew McCutchen: Like Cano, McCutchen had a career year last year and we might be seeing more where that came from. Long considered a 5-Tool player, McCutchen put it all together with the bat last year setting career highs in batting average (.327), home runs (31), RBI (96) and runs (107). McCutchen's always been a bit of an enigma on the bases, never being a particular good base stealer with his speed. Last year he was only 20/32 on stolen base attempts but speed is often something that is sacrificed with an increase in power and fantasy owners will surely take the tradeoff that McCutchen is making.

BBB's Guesstimator: .285/24/90/100/24

8.) Carlos Gonzalez: No player is perfect and Carlos Gonzalez is no exception. He doesn't stay on the field for 162 games, he struggles against lefties and he has noticeable home/road splits. With that said, he's still one the premier 5 category hitters. CarGo might have peaked at age 24 in his first full season (2010) but he's in his prime age (27) and gets to call Colorado his home. Also, with Petco moving the fences in, Gonzalez should improve upon his .683 OPS in San Diego. At worst CarGo will miss some time and provide positive value in every hitting category. At best he could be the fantasy MVP.  You decide.

BBB's Guesstimator: .305/29/95/95/20

Fat Albert

9.) Albert Pujols: 

April - May: .243/.290/.408

June - October: .307/.370/.571

Any questions? It's Albert Pujols.

BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/105/110/5

Someone Has To Pitch

10.) Justin Verlander: It's common to draft hitting over pitching and it's certainly not a flawed methodology but every year pitchers rank among the most valuable in fantasy baseball. I personally still may pass on Verlander if I had the 10th pick but chances are Verlander will be that pitcher this year. If you haven't noticed, Verlander's been simply brilliant the past two years averaging 20 wins, 244 Ks, 245 IP, 2.52 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. Pretty, Pretty good.

BBB's Guesstimator: 18 wins, 235 IP, 235 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Quick Thoughts

Some quick hits for your lunch break:

• Evan Longoria is going to be in Tampa for a long, long time after signing an extension until 2022. Regardless of their market size, more and more teams are holding onto their best players (Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, etc.) and that can only be a good thing for baseball. Even if it hurts the Yankees.
• Every year Bill Simmons does his NBA Trade Value column and recently Dave Cameron has done his own excellent MLB version. As far as I'm concerned the more the merrier when it comes to articles like this, so Jonah Keri's first MLB Trade Value Rankings for Grantland gets my recommendation. 
• The market for Nick Swisher is starting to work itself out. The Yankees aren't in play but the Red Sox, Braves and Giants are all in talks. I guessed that Swisher would sign with the Red Sox due to his ability to play RF (along with 1B which is also a need for Boston) and that might be the direction they go. 
• B.J. Upton is going to make a decision this week on where he will sign. The Braves and Phillies are expected to be in the running, with the Nationals also likely in the mix with a CF need. If he signs with the Braves, one has to wonder if they will go for an Upton-Upton-Heyward outfield.
• The Dodgers don't care about payroll and legitimately might be the new Yankees, or at least the Yankees west of baseball. That means they will likely sign Zack Greinke and not stop there. At this point everything has to be considered on the table for LA. 

Quick Thoughts: Tuesday, November 18

Some quick links & tidbits for your afternoon pleasure that I'll probably update throughout the day:

• Rob Neyer sums up baseball analysis succinctly in this piece by Lynn Hennig:

"It's really simple," Neyer said during a phone conversation. "All we're trying to do is count as many things as we can count to tell us how good a player is, or how good he can be. It's not really all that complicated.

Now what is so bad about that?

• Melky Cabrera signed with the Blue Jays for two-years $16 million. Honestly, I have to say this is a good deal for all parties involved. Melky isn't likely to be the MVP level player he was for the Giants last year but he was pretty darn good in 2011 on the Royals as well. And even if Melky can't achieve that level of performance the Blue Jays aren't investing all that much - $8 million per season for an every day outfielder who can log some time into center and who has the potential to play at a near all-star level is a solid deal. As for Melky, he has two years to reestablish himself for another contract, when he'll still be under 30 years old. 

• If everyone who didn't like the use of sabermetrics in baseball was this honest there wouldn't be the great divide that Mitch Albomination speaks of. 

• David Cone is my favorite announcer on YES, and it's great to read his Q & A with David Laurila of FanGraphs.

UPDATE 12:15

• The Royals re-signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year $25 million deal. Guthrie did pitch well in12 starts last year in Kansas City and eating innings is a valuable commodity, but spending $25 million on borderline journeymen just isn't how you build a winning club. Steroids be damned, I'd rather roll the dice with a Bartolo Colon for $3 million like the A's did than $25 million for Jeremy Guthrie. Anytime you have a chance to spend $38 million on Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana you have to do it. #2013Royals

UPDATE 1:10

• The Mets are trying to re-sign R.A. Dickey and David Wright which is certainly better than just letting them walk like Jose Reyes. Breaking everything up isn't necessarily the smartest decision but I wonder if re-signing them is the best course of action. The Mets already have a young and promising rotation so if Dickey and/or Wright could fetch some positional prospects then something could be brewing in Queens. 

FJM: Mitch Albom

If his Tuesday's were anything like this then I would feel bad for Morrie. 

Mitch Albom's latest gem is deserving of the FJM Treatment. 

Miguel Cabrera's award a win for fans, defeat for stats geeks

NL Most Valuable Player

My ballot:

"$20 says I'll win the MVP and your ERA is over 5" 

1. Buster Posey

2. Yadier Molina

3. Ryan Braun

4. Andrew McCutchen

I promise this isn't based off of how each individual team finished, even though it may appear that way. If you've read some of my stuff you know I don't care about team performance for an individual award. 

I also promise that it's not based just on WAR. Buster Posey did lead the NL with 8.0 fWAR but Ryan Braun (7.9), McCutchen (7.4) both finished with a better number than Yadier Molina (6.5).

My basis for Posey has the same logic to my choice of Mike Trout for AL MVP - choosing the player who both hit and fielded a tough position. 

Ryan Braun led the NL in homers, OPS and finished second in RBI so clearly he was the best hitter, right?

Eh, not necessarily. Remember that pesky little thing called context? 

	OPS+	wRC+
Braun	159	162
Posey	172	162

Ryan Braun had a great year at the plate. No doubt. So did Buster Posey. Buster Posey also played behind the plate, catching 114 games. I think we have a winner!

This isn't necessarily an easy call like the AL MVP, but I do believe the clear choice is Buster Posey. 

AL Most Valuable Player

Ever since the possibility of a Miguel Cabrera Triple Crown emerged late in the season, people have been debating the American League Most Valuable Player Award. What started as a hypothetical (if Miggy wins the Triple Crown, is he the MVP?) became a reality as Miguel Cabrera actually won the American League Triple Crown, the first since Carl Yastrzemski (I can spell Roethlisberger at this point, but I had to look that one up) in 1967.

But you already knew all that - so let's get started.

The Case For Miggy

This one is pretty simple. Miguel Cabrera led the league in Home Runs (44), RBI (139) and Batting Average (.330) en route to the Triple Crown. With those stats one could make a very strong case that he was the best hitter in the American League (i.e. baseball) especially considering he also led in Slugging and OPS.

Miguel Cabrera's team also made the playoffs and played very well down the stretch hitting .333/.395/.675 with 11 homers in September. 

The Case For Trout

This one is also simple. Mike Trout hit .326/.399/.564 and led the league in stolen bases (49) runs (129) and OPS+ (171).  And that's just with the bat and legs as Trout also played a mean CF. Add it up and Trout led all of baseball in fWAR (10.0).

The Choice

Miguel Cabrera had a MVP-type season but he's no Mike Trout. Winning the Triple Crown is an awesome achievement and it will go down in history but it doesn't have to translate to being the best player in the league or the most valuable player in the league. Miguel Cabrera  led the AL in three arbitrary hitting stats but he wasn't necessarily even the best hitter in the AL. 

Let me explain. Context is pretty important as all parks aren't created equal. We know about Coors Field and Petco Park and how different their hitting environments are. Well, while Comerica Park (Detroit) and the Angel Stadium of Anaheim don't have as stark of a difference they are clearly different hitting environments. Comerica is often thought of as a pitchers park but that reputation isn't based on fact since it actually leans towards being a hitters park. The Angels Park meanwhile has been quite the pitchers park, previous reputations be damned.

Miguel Cabrera led the league in OPS, but every OPS isn't created equal. If we look at Adjusted OPS, or OPS+ which accounts for the league and park that you play in, we find that Mike Trout led the league (171) with Miguel Cabrera finishing second (165). Further, if we use other adjusted hitting stats, like wRC+ we find that both Miggy and Trout led the league with 166 wRC+.

Considering that Mike Trout plays a more demanding position, and plays it exceedingly well, the case for Miggy relies on his bat. When you then realize that Miggy's bat wasn't actually any better than Mike Trout, the case for Miggy falls apart...

Unless you care more about the 'intangibles' and the fact that the Tigers made the playoffs with Miggy playing well down the stretch while the Angels missed out on post-season baseball with a struggling Trout. I'll admit, it is a fact that the Tigers made the playoffs. It's also a fact that the Angels had more wins in a tougher division. While Miggy played great in September (180 wRC+), Trout was no slouch (152 wRC+).

All else equal, team record could be a deciding factor but all else isn't equal. It's not even close. Mike Trout hits better, plays a tougher position, plays it better and runs the bases better than anyone in baseball.

I'd love to say case closed, but unfortunately the feeling is that Miggy is going to win the award. The other feeling is that in 10 years we will look back on this debate and wonder while it even occurred.

UPDATE: Still not convinced Trout had a better season at the plate? Check this out.

UPDATE 3:16 PM: Maybe you don't agree with me, but what about Nate Silver?

Cy Young Award

If I shared my thoughts on manager of the year, I believe that obligates me to give a few cents on the Cy Young Award. Without further ado...

American League

Jered Weaver, David Price and Justin Verlander all had excellent years, so it's no surprise they are the finalists for the AL Cy Young Award. However, I view this as a two-man race between Price and Verlander. On the surface, Jered Weaver had a certified bad-ass year going 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA but he also only threw 188.2 innings. David Price also had 20 wins but did it with a league leading 2.56 ERA in 211 innings pitched. Justin Verlander only received 17 wins but had a 2.64 ERA in a league leading 238.1 innings pitched. Weaver pitched well and his 20 wins certainly means something but it's hard to say he pitched better than Price who also had 20 wins with a better ERA. It's also hard to say he deserved three more wins than Verlander considering last year's winner threw 49.2 more innings with a better ERA.

Price v. Verlander

Price: 20-5, 211 IP, 2.56/3.05/3.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 77 FIP-, 7.2 RA9-Wins, 8.74 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 53.1% GB% 5.1 fWAR

Verlander: 17-8, 238.1 IP, 2.64/2.94/3.31ERA/FIP/xFIP, 70 FIP-, 7.6 RA9-Wins, 9.03 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 42.3% GB%, 6.8 fWAR

This is a nice little battle. Price wins a few classic stats and advanced stats and Verlander wins a few classic stats and advanced stats, One would be silly to use WAR as an end all be all number, but it's interesting that Verlander's total is more than an insignificant amount higher than Price. Also,  if we use Baseball Reference WAR Price comes in at 6.4 and Verlander 7.6 - Verlander still is higher, but less so. Anywho, the point isn't to say Verlander more WAR, therefore Verlander better. The point is to ask, well why does Verlander have a higher WAR?

Verlander struck out more batters while walking fewer than Price, but Price also killed a lot more worms with the ground ball compared to Verlander. On a per pitch basis, Verlander and Price were pretty similar in value but Verlander threw 27.1 more innings than Price. That has a lot of value and it shows up in the totals, whether you use fWAR, bWAR or RA9 Wins. It might be boring to give the Award to Verlander again, and it sure is nice to see an even 20 next to the win column for David Price but Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the AL this year and he's my choice for AL Cy Young. Again.

National League

Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez and R.A. Dickey.

R.A. Dickey led the league in strikeouts and innings pitched and finished second in ERA (2.73) and wins (20). Who had more wins? Gio Gonzalez with 21. Who had a better ERA? Clayton Kershaw with a 2.53 ERA.

What about the advanced numbers, we love the advanced numbers!

Well, now I'm not sure what to think. It seems to be a three-headed race but I did forgot to mention innings pitched. Well, I mentioned how Dickey led the league (233.2) but I failed to mention how Kershaw threw 227.2 innings and that Gio Gonzalez finished well below the two of them with 199.1 innings. The best thing a pitcher can do is not give up runs, the next best thing a pitcher can do is that over a lot of innings, so although Gonzalez had a fantastic year, like Weaver his lack of innings pitched hurts him here. Alas, another two man battle!

Ten years ago this would be a pretty obvious win. R.A. Dickey has the awesome story and the stats to back it up - 20 wins and a 2.73 ERA. It's cool that Kershaw led the league in ERA but he only won 14 games. 14 games! 

Luckily, or unfortunately since I do love the Dickey story, we know that wins don't really tell us anything valuable about a pitcher. Dickey had a damn good year and there are some intriguing ways to argue his case but sadly, I have to choose Kershaw for NL CY Young. 

R.A. Dickey had a Cy Young year but Clayton Kershaw was just a smidgen better. Most of the time, I'll get slightly annoyed if the voters don't agree with me, but in this case, even though I would vote for Kershaw I want Dickey to win - it's just been that fun of a year watching him pitch. 

So, Kershaw and Verlander, just like last year. Boring but appropriate. Now let's hope we get a knuckleball and Dickey wins the award!