Monday, October 15, 2012

Carlos Beltran's Postseason Resume and his Hall of Fame Case

For many fans, at least in the Queens area, Carlos Beltran's postseason resume looks a lot like this:



Striking out looking isn't the best way to end a playoff series but it also doesn't mean that Beltran is the least clutchiest player of all time.

In fact, his postseason resume is quite remarkable. Let's take a look:
  • 29 Games Played
  • 108 At Bats
  • 14 Home Runs, 25 RBI
  • .370/.481/.824
  • 9/9 on Stolen Bases
  • 23 Walks; 15 Strike Outs
Wow.

Now, similar to the way people dismiss Alex Rodriguez' 2009 playoff performance to say he otherwise hasn't performed when it matters most, it has been said that Beltran was mostly just good in his historic 2004 postseason with the Astros when he had eight home runs in only 12 games. However, in 17 postseason games since 2004, Beltran has hit .322/.422/.677 with  six home runs and 11 RBI. Not bad.

One could make a case, a very strong case, that Carlos Beltran is the best postseason batter of all time. But what about his hall of fame case?

According to fWAR Carlos Beltran ranks 118th all time among batters with 65.3 WAR. On its own, that honestly doesn't sound too impressive but it is 17th all time among center fielders and it's a higher mark than Sammy Sosa (64.1), Ryne Sandberg (62.6) and Andre Dawson (62.3). For a more contemporary frame of reference, Beltran is right around Andruw Jones (72.1), Bobby Abreu (63), Adrian Beltre (62.3),  Todd Helton (61.3), Lance Berkman (60.1) and Vladamir Guerrero (59.8). Also, like Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran's career is still going strong and he will likely build on that number.

I would not advocate using WAR (especially just one version of it) as the sole benchmark to determine someone's hall of fame case, but the point remains that Carlos Beltran's name certainly belongs in the conversation.

Carlos Beltran's career is often simply characterized by a Rookie of the Year Award and an amazing postseason on Houston that he parlayed into a bad contract by the Mets. While Beltran didn't often bat .300, hit 40 home runs or make diving catches he would get on base, hit for power and play a terrific center field. He never lead the league in stolen bases but he stole them at a  86.7% clip, which is 1st among players with 300 or more steals. He never won a MVP but he was actually a deserving MVP Candidate for three of his six years on the Mets.  

Fans like to see their players hit arbitrary bench marks of performance and make diving plays in the field. Beltran wouldn't quite do that but it hasn't made him any less valuable of a player. Carlos Beltran's career isn't over yet and neither is his 2012 postseason. With a formidable regular season resume and one of the best postseason careers of all time, it looks like Beltran is on his way to Cooperstown. At least if I had a vote. 

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