The Big Boys
1.) Ryan Braun: .313/34/107/102/21 - that's what Ryan Braun has averaged over the course of his six-year career. And if that's not enough for you Braun has managed to increase his stolen base output by averaging over 30 steals the last two seasons. Braun is as consistent as they come and doubles as one of fantasy baseball's true five-category players. 23 players stole 30 bases last year and from that group four hit 20 or more home runs (Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton), two hit 30 or more home runs (Mike Trout) and only Ryan Braun eclipsed the 40 home run barrier. Relying on Braun to steal 30+ bags a year as he enters his age 29 season might be a little irresponsible but if Braun never stole another base he would still rank as one of the best fantasy hitters in the game.
BBB's Guesstimator: .310/35/110/105/25
2.) Miguel Cabrera: What Miggy lacks in speed he makes up for in winning triple crowns and playing in the American League to help his RBI total. If anyone were to be more consistent than Ryan Braun it's Miggy. If you were to take his worst numbers from the last four years you would get a .324/30/105/96 line, which is still phenomenal and basically on par with what Adrian Beltre did this year and he was a top 15 player. That's Miguel Cabrera at his worst. For shits and gigs, if you take his best numbers of the last four years you would get a .344/44/139/11 behemoth. The chances are Miggy does something in between and finishes in the top five because that's just what he does. Oh, and I almost forgot, he plays third base.
BBB's Guesstimator: .330/38/120/110/3
Miggy/Braun, Braun/Miggy the order doesn't really matter - if you grab one of these guys with your first pick you won't regret it.
The Natural
3.) Mike Trout: If there is an argument to be made about drafting someone other than Miggy or Braun with the first pick then you're looking at it. Mike Trout led all of baseball in stolen bases and runs last year all while missing most of April. He also managed to find time in his busy schedule to chip in a mere 30 home runs and 83 RBI while batting .326. Not. Too. Shabby. Historically, nobody compares to Trout and that's partially why I have him ranked third. We just don't quite know what to expect other than the fact that he's going to be very, very good. Trout hit 30 homers last year in 139 games but can we expect him to maintain a 21.6% HR/FB on par with Josh Willingham, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera? At only 21 years old Trout certainly has room to grow but he can also regress. It's the yin and yang with analyzing Mike Trout for 2013. Our brains struggle to comprehend how he could possibly improve yet intellectually we understand that ball players don't peak at 20 years old.
BBB's Guesstimator: .315/26/80/130/55
There are two things I'm sure about regarding Mike Trout for fantasy baseball:
1.) He's going to be good.
2.) The third pick is the best pick in the draft this year. At worst you're "stuck" with the best young player we've ever seen.
Remember Us? We're Healthy Now.
4.) Matt Kemp: After getting snubbed in the NL MVP voting in 2011 Kemp vowed to go into "beast mode" in 2012. He didn't disappoint, at least not early on when he hit .417/.490/.893 with 12 HR and 25 RBI in April. Unfortunately Kemp had some hamstring issues that put him on the DL throughout 2012 and he only played in 106 games hitting .303/.367/.538 with 23 HR, 69 RBI and 9 steals. Kemp's hamstrings clearly affected his ability to steal bases but his per 162 game averages of 35 HR and 105 RBI were nothing to sneeze about in 2012. I fully expect Kemp to hit like has over the last two years with the stolen base output being a little bit of a wild card as he's gone up and down from 34 steals to 19 to 41 to 9 over the last four years. Like Braun and Trout, Kemp is a true 5 category monster and he deserves to be ranked this high even with a few warts.
BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/110/100/25
5.) Joey Votto: Votto would certainly be more valuable in an OBP fantasy league where he's averaged a .429 OBP over the last four years, but he's still plenty good enough to rank fifth on my list. Votto isn't likely to match the 37 HR he had in 2010 but not many players hit the ball as hard and as often as Votto does, always ranking among the league leaders in LD%. Votto can run a little at first base and in the middle of a solid Reds lineup will consistently put up solid Runs and RBI totals.
BBB's Guesstimator: .325/25/110/100/10
Entering the Prime
6.) Robinson Cano: Since 2007 the least amount of games that Cano has played in has been 159. The dude just doesn't miss games and has seen his ISO (Isolated Power) increase over the last five seasons as well. Cano still doesn't steal any bases but his increased power and consistency has made up for it in my mind. Cano had the best year of his fine career in 2012 and I fully expect him to build on that in 2013. Cano would merit a high pick if he played first base, the fact that he's doing it at second base makes him one of fantasy baseball's best.
BBB's Guesstimator: .315/33/100/100/5
7.) Andrew McCutchen: Like Cano, McCutchen had a career year last year and we might be seeing more where that came from. Long considered a 5-Tool player, McCutchen put it all together with the bat last year setting career highs in batting average (.327), home runs (31), RBI (96) and runs (107). McCutchen's always been a bit of an enigma on the bases, never being a particular good base stealer with his speed. Last year he was only 20/32 on stolen base attempts but speed is often something that is sacrificed with an increase in power and fantasy owners will surely take the tradeoff that McCutchen is making.
BBB's Guesstimator: .285/24/90/100/24
8.) Carlos Gonzalez: No player is perfect and Carlos Gonzalez is no exception. He doesn't stay on the field for 162 games, he struggles against lefties and he has noticeable home/road splits. With that said, he's still one the premier 5 category hitters. CarGo might have peaked at age 24 in his first full season (2010) but he's in his prime age (27) and gets to call Colorado his home. Also, with Petco moving the fences in, Gonzalez should improve upon his .683 OPS in San Diego. At worst CarGo will miss some time and provide positive value in every hitting category. At best he could be the fantasy MVP. You decide.
BBB's Guesstimator: .305/29/95/95/20
Fat Albert
9.) Albert Pujols:
April - May: .243/.290/.408
June - October: .307/.370/.571
BBB's Guesstimator: .300/35/105/110/5
Someone Has To Pitch
10.) Justin Verlander: It's common to draft hitting over pitching and it's certainly not a flawed methodology but every year pitchers rank among the most valuable in fantasy baseball. I personally still may pass on Verlander if I had the 10th pick but chances are Verlander will be that pitcher this year. If you haven't noticed, Verlander's been simply brilliant the past two years averaging 20 wins, 244 Ks, 245 IP, 2.52 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. Pretty, Pretty good.
BBB's Guesstimator: 18 wins, 235 IP, 235 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
You kill is son
ReplyDelete