A Hole in the Yankees? No Way!

Pete Abraham notes today that the Yankees still have a hole in their team, more specifically their rotation. The Yankees made no secret this offseason that they needed to address the pitching staff, then they reaaaaalllllyyy made no secret about it by signing Sabathia and Burnett. I'm not sure where they stand with Pettitte and his $10m offer, but the Yankees still don't have a 5th starter. Pete makes a good point about innings pitched in the rotation, stating getting to 950 innings from their starters would be a solid bench mark. Both Sox, Rays, and Angels all were over that mark in their rotations, and it's not a coincidence that they all made the playoffs.

"So, how can they go about getting to 950 innings this season?

Put down CC Sabathia for 225 innings. It’s unreasonable to expect more than that. Put down A.J. Burnett for 190. Given his history, it’s hard to expect more. Figure
Wang for 200. Chamberlain will be limited to around 140 or so.

That’s 755. So where are those extra 200 innings coming from? Team officials have said they’re ready to draw the line on spending and that Andy Pettite missed his chance. But the rotation is no place to suddenly get a financial conscience.

In theory, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves could give you those 200 innings. But that assumes the other four starters stay healthy and do what is expected. That’s a big assumption."

It's a great point that the Yankees need 200 innings somewhere, and most likely relying on Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves wouldn't help the cause especially considering at least one of them will need to spell Burnett or Joba. Although I don't have a big problem with Pete's estimates, it's easy that Joba and Burnett could only give the Yankees 150 innings combined. There's that old cliche that you're only as good as your weakest link, and if the Yankees want to make pithcing a strength, why have a huge weak link in the 5th spot? Pete summed this up beautifully "the Yankees have taken dramatic steps to get better. But they’re leaving open a trap door for no reason." I couldn't agree more.

Andy's performance down the stretch put a bad taste in some mouths, and those people would prefer him off the team. I wouldn't give Andy more than one year, or even much more than the proposed $10m offer, but I wouldn't call it a day with the rotation and start going to battle. The Yankees have their aces (potentially four of them, wow) they just need innings, and no pitcher on their roster can do that like Andy. Andy has averaged 214 IP the last 4 years, and even if he repeated last years subpar numbers with those innings he'd be helping the team tremendously.

Better yet, Andy didn't even have that bad a year. According to FanGraphs Andy had a 3.71 FIP, placing him right below John Lester (new Red Sox ace) and above Cole Hamels (new World Series ace). Only 5 pitchers in the league had a bigger difference in their FIP and ERA than Andy. The Yankees defense won't help Andy ever reach his expected ERA, but it should still be better than last year if he pitches exactly the same even stinking in the 2nd half. The Yankees could be shorting themselves the opportunity to have 5 allstar worthy pitchers for a couple million. Who are the Yankees to now say enough is enough with money? This isn't signing Manny to DH, or giving Derek Lowe a 5 year deal. Up the offer and give Andy $12m and you still have a bargain.

Getting Teixeira allows them to use Melky or Gardner in CF, but Teixeira didn't solve the tiny hole in the rotation. They can sign Pettitte and still be at or below last years budget, while having by far the best rotation in baseball, and maybe the past decade. Why they would leave that trap door as Pete mentions is beyond me.

Free Agents Next Year

I think I touched on it a little bit in talking about the Teixeira signing, but regardless next years free agent class pales in comparison to what was available this year. Rob Neyer, as usual had some pretty good comments on someone elses comments on that issue today.

Matt Holliday is considered the best available hitter next year, with Jason Bay and Chipper Jones behind him. John Lackey is considered the best available pitcher next year, with Justin Duchscherer and Rich Harden behind him. That's pretty good except the problem that Neyer points out is who is actually going to be available? How are the Angels going to let John Lackey go? Would the Sox trade for Jason Bay just to have him leave after the following year? Chipper Jones will be 38 and hasn't played for any other team in the majors besides the Braves. That doesn't leave us with much to talk about next offseason. Holliday will probably be the only available primetime bat next offseason, that's why the Yankees snagged Teixeira now while he was available, not to mention Sabathia and Burnett. Could you imagine if the Yankees sign the top 3 free agents in 2008, then get the top one in 2009? It's certaintly possible, and even though Neyer says that next year "we probably won't have to hear any owners in huge markets [Houston] talking about salary caps", I'm not sure that's true if the Yankees were to snag Holliday, not that there needs to be one (of course their doesn't) just that there will still be reason for rich owners to complain.

Win Values

If you ever read this blog, you would know I'm a pretty big fan of fangraphs.com. I don't know if they're getting more popular or what the reason is, but recently they've been adding some incredible stuff. Obviously, that gets me excited, and the newest addition is Win Values. They have a solid must read three part explanation on them here, here, and here. This stat is for positional players, and instead of giving out some random number that rarely anyone will understand, it expresses someones value in terms of wins that they contribute to the team. It takes into account batting (their production above or below average, park adjusted), fielding, and then positional adjustment to give a pretty incredible overview of a players value. Even cooler possibly is that they can take a players win value and say what he's worth in terms of dollars, and everyone in the world can understand dollars. For instance, a lot of people say how Derek Jeter is overrated, and when you take into account all the jerseys he sells or the little girls that want to see him maybe it's a moot point, but when I tell you that last year he was worth $15.9m and was paid $21.6m isn't that something that everyone can relate to?

Anyways, they do a better job explaining it then I can, and just browsing at what some people make in comparison to what they've earned is pretty neat, so take a look.

Merry Belated Christmas

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. I don't want to use the term holiday season because that would be contributing to the war on Christmas. Therefore, I will assume everyone who reads this celebrates Christmas...

In baseball nothing really occurred the last couple of days. Some people continue to claim the sport needs a baseball cap, while others defends that it doesn't. And just so you know, it doesn't.

What's to be expected in the next couple of days/weeks?

• Continued talk about Manny's falling stock, although who seriously thought he was going to get 3+ years at $25m per. With that said, it's still looking pretty grim, crawling back to the Dodgers or going to a subpar team like the Nats or Orioles may be the only choices
• Heated up Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez talk as they're the biggest name pitchers available, not necessarily the best in Ollie's case.
• I'm feeling some strong Adam Dunn rumors, he's the best hitter available that teams can afford unlike Manny. He's similar to Abreu and Burrell except that he's younger, can play 1b, and is remarkably consistent at what he does. Abreu, a guy who's considered a walk/obp machine has seen his walks decline the past 3 years,hasn't slugged .500 in 4 years, and played the worst defense in RF this year, not a good track to be on. Dunn's waked 100+ times and hit 40+ homers the last 5 years. Dunn has his flaws, but when you focus on what he does well you realize how good he is.
• Lastly, some recaps on the sad faces of all the children who opened this up Christmas morning, or for any holiday celebration, let the war begin!

Teixeira Obviously...

By now we all know the news that the Yankees got Teixeira, signing him for $180m over 8 years. The Yankees used to sign the best pitcher available when they needed it (Mussina 2001) then the best hitter the next year when they needed it (Giambi 2002), but now they decided to sign the best pitcher and hitter with Sabathia and Teixeira and add on AJ Burnett for a cool $82m as a bonus prize. Amazing that with all these signings the Yankees are still under last years payroll. Nobody was complaining (or at least as much) when Yankees were rumored to add on Mike Cameron's $10m contract with Pettitte's $10m offer, totaling $20m, so what's to complain about them adding $22m with Teix. If you didn't like the Yankees before you definitely don't like them now, and if you did you are pretty darn excited.

People are calling that there will now be talk about a salary cap because of what the Yankees are doing. That doesn't make sense to me, when the Yankees had a higher payroll last year who was complaining as loudly as they are now? This shouldn't be a surprise that without a salary cap some team will come in and land all the top free agents. I guess before the problem was masked, and now it's out in the open for everyone to see. the Steinbrenner's aren't the richest owners in baseball, they just spend the most on their team. The Yankees also just paid around $27m in luxury tax to the other teams. Are the Twins not going to cash those checks until they get a salary cap? Nope. The Yankees somehow found a way to cut payroll and create all this fuss. The Yankees are the Yankees and I don't know if a cap can take that away from them, they'll always do their best to win.

I'm not sure exactly how all of this went down and I'm sure we'll find out soon if it's not out already. But the little I've heard seems as though no one was sure the Yankees were really in on Teix, and as Boston tried playing mind games with Teixeira and Boras claiming they weren't targeting him anymore, the Yankees slipped in under the radar and snagged him up. If that's kind of what happened then that's sweet on Cashman's part, sneaking in like that and getting the best hitter available (if not the best player) without anyone really thinking a deal was close, while sticking it to the Yankees biggest rival.

What's this mean for the Yankees? Pretty easy, they are the obvious favorites to win it all. By no means does it mean they will, but with this offseason they should. I wonder if Joe Girardi likes this move. Before this he was expected to win, but maybe getting to the ALCS or World Series would have been enough to keep his job. Now I'm not sure if the Yankees aren't 10 games above .500 in May if he'll have his job. The Yankees CF problem could be fixed now with Swisher playing there, Teix at 1st and Matsui DHing. They have 4 great starting pitchers and if you couple that with the new lineup, they may not need a guy like Pettitte to round out the rotation although it certainly wouldn't hurt. I'm sure Kennedy, Aceves, and Hughes are happy about Teix if it means they'll get a shot to start.

It's hard to predict someone to win 95 games or so in a season, but on paper I don't know how you'd expect less, but as they say that's why we play the games. The Yankees used to have the best lineups in recent years and the pitching held them back. Before the Teix signing everyone knew the lineup wasn't going to be the same as it was in years past, especially considering Damon/Matsui/Jeter aging and the up in the air quality of Cano, but with their revamped pitching staff you figured the Yankees would get away with it (not that it was bad, but it wasn't going to be the best). Now with Teix, they addressed the lineup adding the best hitter there was available, at least the best still in his prime. It's one thing to spend or overspend on players you think are good but are just ok, it's another to spend on the best of the best. Health is no sure thing and Sabathia and Burnett could flame out, but that would be a shock. There should be no performance surprises with their free agent signings, they signed arguably the top 3 players available. Overpaying (not that they did) for Teixeira won't hurt you as much as giving $10m+ for 4 years to Kyle Lohse if you get my drift. Now, I've been saying this a lot around some friends but I think it's true, if you're playing a video game it's hard to have this kind of offseason. Surely if you go after Sabathia in the game someone sneaks up on you and gets Teixeira, but I guess there aren't recessions in video games...

Baseball Projections

Go to this site for some sweet internet browsing. It's baseball projections that I believe are from the CHONE projection system which is a reliable source, not just some dude guessing stats based on some sort of feel. They are all free, and it has some need stuff like predicting future values in terms of millions. The 6 year projection for Sabathia had him being worth $140.8m, the Yankees signed him for $162m for 7 years, but originally they were right around $140m/6 years before adding on the last year. Pretty good evidence to me that this is not a fluke. The Yankees must use similar projection systems, if not this exact one. That much money for a pitcher sounds like a ripoff for the Yankees, but compared to what other pitchers make the Yankees are paying a fair price for Sabathia. AJ Burnett is another story however, and based on projections in the future, the Yankees will be overpaying him by a couple mill a year.

Kyle Lohse signed a 4 year deal for $41m to stay with the Cardinals this year. CHONE projects him to be worth $27.1m over the duration of that contract. Not that we needed CHONE to tell us this was a lousy deal, but it's fun to browse the projected bargains and ripoffs. Often your gut is right when believing a contract was stupid, but there are occasionally some surprises.

If you're not interested in that tricky stuff there's still the basics. How many RBI will Howard have next year? Easy 128. How will Pedroia do after his MVP performance? Pretty well actually, .311/.376/.464. Will Jeter continue his recent decline? Not quite, but he's not rebounding either, wonder how long he can tread water there.

Lastly, and not really lastly on that site just what I want to say here, you can compare the free agents still available. Do you want 8 years for Mark Teixeira or one of Jason Giambi for similar production, or even Frank Thomas if you're really feeling thirfty? On the pitching side, why give Oliver Perez a Boras contract when you can sign Randy Johnson and get better production with financial flexibility in the future? I think you know the answers...

Are You Serious Sox?

So some team outbid the Red Sox for Teixeira and the Red Sox are no longer in the running for him. The Red Sox like any other team really don't like giving out long contracts, especially 8 year ones that go into the players mid 30s, but I guess they really don't like it, enough to not replace a declining Mike Lowell and David Ortiz for a stud switch hitting great fielding first baseman. I understand the Sox points for not getting into a bidding war for Teixeira when their team could probably make the playoffs regardless. But sometimes the Sox get too smart. The Yankees will sign everyone they can to win a World Series and then smile, the Sox will smile after the Yankees win 3 in a row but have to deal with an aging Burnett and Sabathia. Completely different philosophies and although the Sox may be smarter, it seems like it's more annoying to root for. Priding yourself on making the best, smartest decision at that time instead of trying to win at all costs.

For all I know it's not even a smart decision to leave Teixeira talks. The Sox can afford to get a guy like Teixeira, to flex their financial advantage (albeit less than the Yankees) over most other teams. Even before the Yankees got their pitchers I felt Teix to the Sox was an auto go so this news is kind of striking to me. They were smart keeping Youklis a couple years back when there were rumors of trading him in a deal for Todd Helton. But now that a Todd Helton is available in free agency, doesn't it make sense to sign him?

Furcal Stays in LA

I'm glad I didn't try to track these negotiations, they were a mess. One day the A's are locked in, the next the Braves have him all ready to sign, but finally he stays with the Dodgers for 3 years at $30m. So, the Dodgers who looked like they could lose half their team via free agency, at least keep their shortstop pairing him with resigned 3b Casey Blake on the left side. Lowe is rumored to be looking at Boston and the Mets, Manny got 2 offers from LA already, arbitration and 2 years $45m, Penny is as good as gone, and non-tendered reliever Saito is available to anyone who wants.

I was pretty critical of the Dodgers early on, saying they could see some major slippage with all of their free agents. But it looks like they are doing a good job of keeping the harder to replace positions of SS and 3b. Replacing Lowe is pretty difficult but with James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and prized pitcher Clayton Kershaw all possibly ready to make the next step (Kershaw kind of already has), their rotation shouldn't be in shambles for too long, if anything at all.

This next year could be somewhat of a rebuilding year with a chance to still win the division. It took 84 games to get it this year, with the Rockies trading Holliday, Padres trying to trade everyone, DBacks losing Dunn and lowballing Randy Johnson, and the Giants still well the Giants for now, it shouldn't take more than 84 games to win the division next year. Even rebuilding (if you want to even call it that) next year with a young staff and a young core of position players the Dodgers have a solid shot in a total crap division. Maybe they'll keep Manny, or go for a veteren pitcher like Oliver Perez to shoot down the whole quasi rebuilding thing, but for now think of them kind of like the Rays last year. A few guys take the next step and you're looking at a potentially dangerous team...at least for NL West standards.

Pudge in WBC

So Pudge Rodriguez has signed up to play for Puerto Rico in the WBC. Is Pudge the Jeter of Puerto Rico? There could be several replacements for Pudge and Jeter to play their respective positions but they are the old kings of the position and will never let go. Jeter will be starting at SS for the USA most likely over J.J. Hardy and Jimmy Rollins who arguably are better. I guess Yadier Molina isn't a lot of competition for catcher in Puerto Rico, but did anyone see Pudge on the Yankees this year. Jose Molina playing in place of Posada basically the entire pitching staff's ERA lower, then Pudge comes in and they start pitching worse. Well, at least pudge is a better hitter than Jose right? Wrong, they both had an OPS+ of 51. Yadier had an OPS+ of 95, pretty darn good for a Gold Glover. Maybe I'm jumping the gun and Pudge won't start, he even said "here we are all major leaguers and all deserve to play. I am prepared to play any position.” With taht said, Yadier could be starting at catcher and Pudge at 2b without a contract for '09, trying to impress some scouts on his newly founded position versatility.

American League is Tougher, Really?

Just kidding, that's pretty obvious news, but MLB.com had a little story on it. Of the 13 cases since 2000 where a pitcher made 30 starts in the NL and then 30 in the AL the next year, only one pitcher did better in the AL.

"As a group, the 13 pitchers averaged an ERA+ (a measure of ERA relative to the
league average) of 116 in their NL seasons, dropping to 99 in their AL seasons.
They went from quite a bit above average to a hair below. Their average
strikeout-to-walk ratio fell from 3.11 to 2.46, their WHIP climbed from 1.24 to
1.37, and their innings per start fell from 6.31 to 6.08.

Collectively,
it's like the transition from Josh Beckett (career ERA+ of 116, WHIP of 1.22) to
Vicente Padilla (100, 1.39). "

That's a pretty big difference. Above average allstars turn into Vincente Padillas. Now, I'm not sure but I'm expecting the difference between the leagues to mean more than it has in years past, but it's really bad right now, more so than just the DH factor. The Sox and Yanks require AL teams to cough up the money like Detroit, Angels, Orioles (even though they spend it terribly). Or it requires other teams to be really smart with their money like the Twins and A's.

Anyways, this comes back to my argument about Clemens and Maddux. The one thing I couldn't let go was the fact Clemens dominated the AL, Maddux the NL. This is going to be a terrible analogy and a little overdoing it with some disrespect to the NL, but it's like Clemens dominated the SEC in football, and Maddux went undefeated at a mid-major. Nothing against the mid-major but you don't have to play Florida, LSU, Alabama, and so on. Alex Smith put up some nice stats on Utah but accomplished nothing in the NFL. Matt Ryan played pretty well on an ok BC team playing against tough ACC opponents, he's having a pretty darn good start in his NFL career. Is Maddux Alex Smith? Heeeeeeellllll no, Maddux would be a great pitcher in the AL and the more I talk about this the stupider this dumb analogy becomes, but he wouldn't be as good a pitcher in the AL as he was in the NL, and you could say Clemens would be better if he had pitched a careers worth on innings in the NL.

Back to current baseball...now this 'study' is no shock to anyone especially Yankee fans going through the Carl Pavano and Jaret Wrong experiments. You gotta think everyone is aware of this and that GMs think about it during the offseason. Will an AL team sign Sheets? Probably not going to happen. Will Vazquez pitch better for the Braves than he did for the White Sox? He probably will. Is there a good reason Peavy said he would prefer the NL? Obvi, and this is why.

Rocco's Modern Life

Just to start, Rocco's Modern Life is second to only Ren and Stimpy as the greatest cartoon, or at least nicktoon of all time. It's actually arguable that it's better than Ren and Stimpy, but nothing else can enter the discussion.

With that there's news that Rocco Baldelli's hip disorder was misdiagnosed. He went from having an un-treatable disease, to a treatable disease, that's pretty huge. The 2nd half of last year there was a lot of talk about the Rays getting another outfielder to help, but they stuck with Baldelli, and he performed pretty well even hitting 2 homers in the playoffs. Baldelli always screams with potential, but his disease would obviously be a major drawback in negotiations. With news that it's better than previously thought, you figure it'll really help him out in free agency. Baldelli was and never probably will be anyone who would be an onbase machine, but Bill James still projects pretty good numbers .279 12hr 47rbi with .330 obp and .465 slugging in 312 ABs. I don't know what kind of contract Baldelli could be looking at, but with respectable predictions that when you figure with this new news on his condition could be an underestimate, Baldelli would be a pretty good gamble, no?

Manny Being Manny in NY?

While the idea of signing Manny may seem like a great idea to stick it to the Red Sox, it may not be the smartest for the Yankees. However, most of that relies on how Manny would sign with the Yankees. Now that their rotation is settled, save for a little Andy Pettitte waiting, the Yankees are now supposedly looking at Manny. The Yankees lost something around $85m in salaries this offseason after losing Giambi, Mussina, Pettitte, Pavano, and Krazy Kyle. Even with all of their spending they are still right around or even lower than last years total. Now if they want to cut spending like Cashman has been hinting at, there is no way they can do it with Manny. Not that that's a reason not to sign Manny, so what if Cash said he'd spend less and he spends more, not a big deal it's the Yankees.

The problem lies in the length of the deal, 3 years $22-25m is too long for the Yankees. They are pretty old to begin with, Matsui and Damon are LFs at best most likely DHs, Manny is basically a DH, and Posada may not be able to catch as early as this year. Jeter is getting old and it's starting to show statistically, Arod will be 33, although he's a rock. Ok, one year of Manny I'd agree with, maaaaybe 2 years, but 3 is out of the question. One of the Yankees' goals this offseason was to get younger and more athletic and early on it seemed to be heading that direction replacing 1B/DH but really dh Giambi for Swisher. Signing Manny makes them older and unathletic, handcuffing Girardi, not giving him roster flexibility, and to have him for 3 years when he'll be even worse in LF and/or Posada really can't catch anymore really presents a problem. A roster of DHs is not a good thing.

I guess the Yankees can make a point that Damon and Matsui could be gone next year, but they'll still have a potential huge problem with Posada and Manny unable to play the field. The Yankees will basically be paying Manny the yearly amount that Teixeira would require, and if Damon, Matsui, and Jeter's large contract are over either by next year or the year after, why not just get Teixeira. I think 3 years of Manny handcuffs the team more than 8 of Teixeira.

It's not that fixing the Yankees lineup is a stupid thing, no longer do the Yanks have a spectacular lineup, they could use some help. Like I've said, Jeter could slip more, Posada may no longer give the Yanks the long advantage they've held at catcher, who knows if Robbie Cano will return to form, they don't have a startable CF as of yet, Damon/Matsui are a year older, you get the point. I just don't think signing Manny, seemingly part of a gimmick to slap the Sox in the face, for 3 years is the proper way. Getting under the radar guys like Swisher is a better way to go, or if your gonna just say screw it, you might as well go for the gold and get Teix.

Maddux Or Clemens

I said if enough people voted in the poll that I'd give my loyal viewership my take on it. Well, that wasn't really the case but I'll give something. Only 5 people voted, 4 for Clemens and 1 for Maddux, that one for Clemens was mine too!

I'm so not the first to argue about this, this has and will now always continue to be a huge argument in the lines of Mantle v. Mays. Some cases can be found here, here, here, here, here, and here, so I think you get the point.

So I guess you know where I'm getting here but here we go...

To start with just your basic final stats with bold meaning advantage:
Clemens: 354 wins, 184 losses, 658 win/loss%, 4916.7 ip, 1580 bb, 4672 k, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 whip, 143 ERA+

Maddux: 355 wins, 227 losses, 610 win/loss%, 5008.3 ip, 999 bb, 3371 k, 3.16 ERA, 1.14 whip, 132 ERA+

Clemens has a ton more strikeouts but a ton more walks, he has a career 2.96 k/bb and Maddux has a 3.37. Maddux has a better GB/FB % , slightly worse LD%, a significantly better FB% (33.1% to 27.5%) but also a worse HR/FB ratio. It's almost like any advanced metric you use for one the other can counter. They have basically the same ERA's except that Clemens ERA+ is pretty significantly better, taking into account the majority of his career being played in the AL behind worse defenses. If you look at their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) Clemens' slight lead grows a 3.09 career FIP and Maddux's 3.26. That's to say that Maddux's ERA is a little lower than it should be due to league and defense, while Clemens' is a little higher.

If you look at the hardware, Clemens has an astounding Cy Youngs (even though one or two of them may not have been deserving) and Maddux has only 4. However those 4 came all in a row, Clemens never won 3 in a row (most people don't) but he won 2 in a row twice. From his first season in 1984 to his last in 2007, Clemens was more or less very good, amazing considering that's 24 friggin' years. Maddux was kind of bad his first to years in 1986 and 1987 and not that great his last two years in 2007 and 2008, however from 1988 to 2006 he was unbelievable.

Getting back to Maddux's 4 in a row Cy Youngs, they illustrate a continued period of time where Maddux absolutely dominated. Not saying Clemens never did, but he never put together quite a streak like Greg, actually nobody ever did. From 1992-1998 Maddux posted an ERA more than one full run below the league average, the only pitcher in the history of the game to do that for 7 years. Clemens never did that even 5 times (however Mussina has). Clemens kind of had randomly dispersed unreal years able to pitch to a 223 ERA+ and 1.87 ERA in 2005 at age 42. Maddux had more or less the longest, most dominate prime of anyone in baseball history, really no worse than Pedro or Koufax.

Clemens is aided by his ability to pitch at the same level in his 40s, where Maddux was pitching with ERA+ right around 100 in his 40s, Clemens was remarkably in the mid 100s. Now, there's that little thing called steroids that probably helped Clemens. I'd be stupid not to mention it, but for this discussion we are only talking about who was the better pitcher, not who was the better pitcher without the help of drugs. If you can't let that go, this arguments useless, Maddux destroys Clemens. Where Clemens beats Maddux is the end of his career which is basically due to steroids most will believe, if that's out of the equation, we don't really have an argument, but it's not in my equation right now so it's still a sweet argument.

If your idea of a better pitcher is who for an extended period of time was better, that would go to Maddux where from 1992-1998 he dominated like no other. However, over the course of their careers Clemens was a better pitcher, for 24 seasons he was amazing, pretty remarkable. As a little side note thingy, what would happen if Maddux retired in 2004? From 2005-2008, the end of Maddux's career, he wasn't really that good a pitcher, he pitched a good amount of innings with an ERA over 4 hurting his career numbers. I wonder if those extra wins help his cause against Clemens, or if the increase in ERA hurts. If Maddux retired with an ERA lower than Clemens I think it would help. Funny to also think of the other side, if Clemens retired when he said he would with the Yankees he'd have one less Cy Young and be missing some pretty incredible ERA seasons that he had on Houston.

As I said in the beginning the one Clemens vote was mine, I feel he's the better pitcher. With a choice I'll take the guy that can strike guys out more, relying less on his defense. I sometimes hate making these points because it sounds like it's taking away from Maddux, but he was helped by his league and his defense I don't know how someone could argue against that. Clemens put up the stats playing on some crappy Boston and Toronto teams in the better league. Maddux for the most part pitched on a Braves dynasty. Also a little more about defense, Maddux was amazing with a record 18 gold gloves, way better than Clemens. But Maddux's defense would help his stats, and Clemens' would hurt his. It's already calculated. I guess you can make a point that Maddux's FIPs are higher than his ERAs because he was one of the reasons why. But, how much does a pitchers defense even if it's great affect that? Also it can underscore the better defense behind the pitcher in Maddux's case (Clemens had Jeter for god's sake!), and how the things Clemens does well doesn't require defense, which often signals a better pitcher.

A last little point that some people like to make is pitching on the biggest stage, in the postseason. Well it's kind of disheartening but neither pitcher was that amazing in the playoffs, both were actually worse in the postseason, Maddux 11-14 3.27 ERA 3.66 FIP , Clemens 12-8 3.75 ERA 3.53 FIP. If Maddux had a postseason resume like, and it kills me to say this, Curt Schilling it would give him the edge in my mind. Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 in the postseason, jaw dropping really. But without that, the stats just don't add up in my mind for Maddux. You can mention how Maddux was a better pitcher, how he knew how to pitch better, was smarter, and had the remarkable ability to know what was going to happen, and all that jazz, and I won't really argue against all that, but at the end of the day I'm going with Clemens.

Both amazing pitchers, easily top 10 probably top 5 of all time, and arguably top 2. The game could change and tomorrow people realize Maddux was even better than we think now. Maybe Clemens comes out and says how he used steroids his entire career and he owes everything to them, really taking him out of the picture. I don't know, but my gut tells me Clemens and some of the stats do too. Any thoughts?

P.S. This would take waaaaay too long if I had it all organized before hand, I kind of just went with it and this long rambling unorganized post is what I got and you all (4 readers maybe?) get to read. And thanks to baseballreference and fangraphs for the help.

Jamie Moyer

The Phillies signed Jamie Moyer to a 2 year $16m deal. Why did Moyer get 2 years? Or more importantly why did the Phillies give him 2 years. What other team could possibly be looking at Moyer for their staff? He's 46 years old and hasn't had a FIP under 4 since 1999. His 3.74 ERA last year is somewhat of a mirage with his 4.32 FIP. He'll give you innings going at least 195 innings the past 8 years, but they aren't going to be great innings. Marcel projects him to have a 4.58 ERA, which would be fine for a one year deal, but still why give Moyer two?

I don't mean to discount Moyer, he's been a solid pitcher for a long time, and I think it's the coolest thing that he's 46 and will at least play until he's 48. He has 246 wins, that isn't a fluke. I'm just kinda surprised that the Phillies gave him an extra year, I can't imagine for the life of me that Moyer had hard offers from other teams for one year $8m let alone anything near a 2 year deal. It's not a huge contract, or a long one, so its doubtful that it'll hurt the Phillies. If he stays healthy like he always has, although at 46 there's no sure thing, he could help them out on the back end of the rotation, I just keep coming back to the fact they had to give him that extra year.

Thanks to FanGraphs for some of the stats.

Under the Radar Starters?

Over at Rotoauthority.com they mention a few surprise starters that Bill James predicts to have an ERA under 4. Here's my little take on some of them.

-Tim Wakefield 3.91 ERA. I don't know how one really makes these predictions, let alone makes them for a knuckle ball pitcher. He hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2002, and he'll be 42 next year. However, this Bill James guy is an employee of the Red Sox, and if they're buying Wakefields ERA it should be no surprise that they haven't spent on pitching yet.

-Barry Zito 3.94 ERA. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that Barry Zito has been miserable for the Giants so far. According to FanGraphs, Zito's average fastball velocity was 87.3 in 2005 and last year it checked in at 84.9, obviously not a good sign. Neither are the stats, 5.15 ERA last year with a 85 ERA+. I wouldn't be surprised if Zito did better than last year, but an ERA of 3.94 seems a little ridiculous.

-Pedro Martinez 3.36 ERA. Now this one although still a real big stretch I can maybe see. No he's not going to be a reliable source of innings, but when healthy it shouldn't surprise anyone to see Pedro have a nifty ERA. Any team needing a 5th starter should look Pedro's way.

-Phil Hughes 3.35 ERA. Wow. If Andy Pettitte signs with the Yankees, the Yankees are looking at a 6th starter tops in the AL in ERA. Hughes will only turn 23 in June of this year, so he's still very very young. It's easy to forget Hughes but when you consider that phenom David Price is over a year older than Hughes it reminds you that he's not an afterthought. He was rumored in a few deals this offseason, but there is a reason none of those were close to being considered because the Yankees aren't trading him. Let's not think that Hughes even if he has a 3.35 ERA is going to be durable or pitch a lot of innings, Bill James only predicts 125 innings. But the Yankees haven't forgotten about the youth movement in light of signing Burnett and Sabathia, and with Hughes penciled as the 6th starter, you could be looking at some really good innings filling in occasionally as a spot starter. Or he can bust like he has every time in the majors, save one outing in Texas, and one relief appearance against the Indians in the playoffs...

Burnett Deal

So the Yankees have kept up their busy expensive offseason so far by now signing A.J. Burnett to a 5 year $82m deal. Of the big 3 after Sabathia (Burnett, Lowe, Sheets) Burnett seemed like the least helpful to the Yankees. They don't need a potential ace, they need consistency which is what Lowe would give them. And as far as inconsistency goes, maybe Sheets would be a better choice. Neither are safe health risks, but when healthy Sheets is definitely better. A lot was made of Burnett winning 18 games last year and leading the AL in strikeouts. Not much emphasis is on his ERA although not bad, over 4 at 4.07 and his not too snazy 105 ERA+. Burnett's highest ERA+ in his career is 122 back in 2002, Sheets' worst since 2004 has been 117. Burnett is also 2 years older than Sheets, although Sheets has more innings on his arm.

This isn't to say that Burnett isn't a good pitcher, he's still really good. Burnett has also done this in the AL east and proven he can win there. The other times the Yankees brought in NL pitchers it hasn't worked well -Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright... With that said, it's reasonable for the Yankees not willing to mess up again with an NL pitcher, especially a brittler one like Sheets. Maybe a 5th year can come back to haunt them, but the Yankees can afford that risk. So overall although I think Lowe would be a better fit, this isn't a bad move, just maybe not the best move for the team. The Yankees set out to fix there rotation and they've done that putting together a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Joba, and Hughes/outstanding offer to Pettitte. Another positive of this is that the Yankees are really putting the pressure on the other teams. They've more or less finished the bulk of their offseason work, and the other competing teams haven't really started.

Bern Baby Bern

Yea, I know 2 posts about Bernie is a bit much, but I love the guy. That doesn't mean I wanted him to play on the Yankees last year but, anyways it looks like he'll be playing ball this winter in Puero Rico. Bernie has hopes to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, I guess this is an early step to get ready. Bernie won't patrol Center with Beltran on the roster but maybe he can play LF and Juan Gonzalez can come out and play RF, wouldn't those corner outfielders be a throw back to 1996? When guys can choose between countries, or play for one one year then change the next time around, I find it hard to take the WBC seriously, but it'd still be cool to watch some guys play that you won't be able to during the season. Bern Baby Bern!

Ibanez to Phillies

The Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in left field, declined to offer him arbitration (let alone sign him) and replaced him with Raul Ibanez for 3 years $30m. Ibanez is a 36 year old left fielder coming off a .293/.358/.479 season in Seattle. Burrell is a 32 year old left fielder coming off a .250/.367/.507 season. Ok, I understand if the Phillies didn't want to sign Burrell long term, but couldn't they offer him arbitration? If he accepted, one year of Burrell for $15 or so million wouldn't handcuff them for the future, and they would get more production most likely and keep together a World Series Team.

A lot has been mentioned recently about defense, that guys like Burrell, Dunn, and Manny may not get as big offers because of the runs they give up on defense. Sure they can rake, but if you count the runs they give up due to their poor defense they may not deserve the contracts they'll receive. I could see why the Phills then would replace Burrell in general, with maybe a cheaper better defender, but that isn't Ibanez. Thanks to Fan Graphs, Pat Burrell had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -10.8, and Ibanez was -12.6. That's to say Ibanez and Burrell are both far and away below average defenders, both 10 runs or more worse than an average fielder, and in this case Ibanez is even worse, so they're not getting a better fielder.

Moreover, Bill James projects Burrell next year to be .253/377/.490 with a .867 OPS and Ibanez to be .278/.343/.448 with a .791 OPS. To put that in some perspective, it's like the difference in batting between Jim Thome and Randy Winn this year. The Phillies could have given Burrell arbitration and during these financial times with teams not eager to spend (besides the Yankees) he could have decided to accept, and a one year deal wouldn't hurt the team, or even better he could have signed elsewhere and they could receive a draft pick. Or they could have waited and Burrell probably would take a slight pay cut to stay on the team and given him a similar deal to Ibanez. Or they could have looked for a cheaper option that could field well, instead of overpaying for an all bat no glove player. But the Phillies decided to fill their hole in the outfield with an older, worse hitting, worse fielding version of Burrell.

I don't know what former GM Gillick would do, but he was great at finding bargain OFs like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. If you're going to let Burrell go though, shouldn't you find a replacement that's better or at least different?

Some Recaps

So the offseason started off really slow but now its heating up, besides Sabathia there were a lot of other moves yesterday.

-The Mets had a huge 3 team 12 player trade brining in JJ Putz. They send off Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, and 3 minor leaguers and get Jeremy Reed, reliever Sean Green and JJ Putz. Pairing Putz with K-Rod gives the Mets a great new look in the bullpen. Both could be top notch closers and even if they aren't as good as they could be, it's better than last year. Good move mets, they don't lose anyone who would help them this year, as on the Mets Heilman was a lost cause.

-The Tigers continue to be busy this offseason, getting Gerald Laird from Texas, signing Adam Everett and now trading outfielder Matt Joyce to Tampa for Edwin Jackson. Joyce is a young outfielder, 23, who in 242 ABs last year hit 12 homers going .252/.339/.492. He's cheap and young and fills a corner outfielder spot that the Rays need. Edwin Jackson who has been around forever it seems is still young at 25. The Rays with David Price had a surplus in pitching and could afford to send Jackson. They didn't necessarily give much up, in 183.3 innings Jackson had a 4.42 ERA and an ERA+ of 101. Jackson is young and if he stays healthy could give you 180-200 innings of decent pitching, valuable, but I don't know if it's worth it to trade a young OF. Unless Edwin Jackson breaks out which doesn't seem likely call this a win for the Rays.

-The Reds signed Arthur Rhodes 2 years $4m. Everyone needs lefty relief midseason and there is usually some available in every offseason like Rhodes. Rhodes should be able to help out the Reds bullpen after losing Affeldt and could probably trade him midsason like he was last year.

-The Yankees have reportedly offered Burnett a 5th year for something around $85m. However, this isn't near done as other interested teams could still up their offers like the Braves.

-A Mike Cameron/Melky Cabrera swap has been rumored. Great move for the Yankees, Melky can't afford to struggle in NY and keep playing to get better, he could in Milwaukee

-The Royals signed amazing reliever Kyle Farnsworth for 2 years $9.25m. In 2005 Farnsworth had his last good year, half of it on the Braves when Royals GM Dayton Moore was there, and he shipped that into a 3 year deal from the Yanks. Then after 3 bad seasons even comparable to scrub relievers, Farnsworth has turned that into a 2 year deal from the Royals, for over $9m! I don't know in what world this is a good move. The Braves haven't made the playoffs since 2005, and it's like the Royals are their Junior Varisty picking up old Braves scraps. Luckily the Greinke/Francoeur rumor wasn't legit for their sake.

That's about it, or all I want to talk about cya soon

Sabathia Signs with the Yanks

So my prediction that Sabathia would not be the first big name starter to sign was wrong, sue me. Today Sabathia signed with the Yankees for a reported $160m for 7 years. Amidst a lot of rumors about Sabathia waiting for the Angels and that he prefered to sign with the Dodgers, the Yankees snag him up upping the contract from the 6 years $140m to 7 years $160m. A little less than $23m per year the deal is very similar to Johan's extension in New York for 6 years $137.5m, it's actually cheaper per year but has an extra year. If the Yankees didn't sign Sabathia it could have ruined their offseason, but now they get the ace they coveted to anchor an improved pitching staff.

Now the focus shifts to Teixeira and where he will sign. It was reported the Yankees would go after him if they couldn't sign Sabathia, but who's to say they can't sign both. They easily could afford both, but at this point it'd be hard for the Red Sox to let that happen. I don't care about all the fuss of what to do with Lowell, he's a good teammate and the Red Sox can afford to have him sit with Youk and Teix starting.

Every starter has been waiting for Sabathia to sign to set the market, now maybe Lowe, Burnett, and Sheets will sign soonish. The Yankees did a nice job getting CC out of the way pretty quickly, and all their attention is now on pairing him with another one of those 3 starters. Burnett and Lowe were early targets of the Yanks, but with CC gone those two are higher commodities to other teams, and I think it would make more sense for the Yankees to get Sheets before Burnett and Lowe are signed, driving up the price of Sheets.

A lot of people may say how spending $160m on Sabathia is a waste of money and point to his build and the innings he pitched the last 2 years. Bill Simmons has even said he's looking forward to a "365-pound CC Sabathia laboring through a 98° game at Yankee Stadium in 2012 with four more years and $105 million remaining on his contract." If the Sox didn't have Lester and it made a lot of sense to sign Sabathia I wonder how he would feel. It's easy to speculate that because he's large he'll get larger, and because he's pitched a lot of innings he'll get hurt. I'll point to his durability to handle the load (partially because he is large) and how his contract compares favorable to Johan's.

UPDATE:
It looks like it is 7 years $161m which makes it an even $23m per, more than Johan's. Also there is an opt-out clause after 3 years. It obviously benefits Sabathia, but say he opts out, is it a bad thing the Yankees won't have to pay Sabathia $20+m when he's a 31 year old pitcher? Could benefit both sides.

Bernabé Figueroa Williams

Bernie Williams' name is not floating around the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, but he is moving forward. Tyler Kepner reports on his blog about Bernie's new album "Moving Forward". The best part about all this is probably that Wayman Tisdale who apparantly is a stand-up jazz bassist, is playing bass on the album. I may have some biases and allegiances but you gotta believe this album will be better than Bronson Arroyo's...



Is he serious? Is the clarinet necessary?

Mets get K-Rod, Blake Stays in LA...

K-Rod signs with the Mets for 3 years $37m. Compared to the rumors of 5 years $75m the Mets look like winners. K-Rod is slightly overrated as a closer due to some lofty save totals which don't necessarily equate to being a great closer. He's by no means bad, and has been solid his whole career. There have been some concerns over his velocity decrease, but with only a 3 year deal, it looks to be pretty safe. The Mets still need some setup relievers and could probably pick one up soon now that K-Rod is signed. They could reasonably sign Fuentes and K-Rod for the rumored price for K-Rod at the beginning of the offseason. UPDATE: Keith Law has a nice take on the deal. He notes that Jose Arredondo should easily slide into the closers role, and that the Angels get the Mets first pick.

Casey Blake stays on the Dodgers for 3 years $17m. Blake came over midseason to the Dodgers from Cleveland and the Dodgers started to make their run. However, production wise he wasn't so hot going .251/.313/.460 with an OPS+ of 100. He looks to continue playing 3b, but offers flexibility in the NL able to play OF and 1b. The Dodgers could likely lose Manny, Furcal, and Lowe so keeping Blake at a non awful price helps keep the team somewhat together. They also picked up Mark Loretta for a one year deal for $1.25m. He figures to help replace Jeff Kent if Blake DeWitt can't play full time there.

Beyond that there have been the normal rumors. The Red Sox are going hard for Teixeira and the Indians are 'closing' in on Kerry Wood, The Blue Jays are looking at Furcal, the Braves are shopping around for some starting pitching without trading they're top prospects, and the Cubs and Padres still are trying to figure out something for Peavy.

NY Needs Pitching (obvi), Hitting Next?

Both New York teams are heading into the Winter Meetings trying to fill needs on the pitching staff. It has been no secret that the Yankees are going all-in Vegas style for C.C. Sabathia, and on the other side that the Mets are looking at K-Rod to be their closer. However, each team could potentially benefit from signing some hitters. It has been reported that Sabathia, who would prefer to sign in California, is waiting to see if the Angels keep Teixeira because if not they could move in on him. In that case the Yankees could look at Teixeira. Not much has been mentioned about the Mets lineup, but Ben Shpigel addressed the idea of helping the Mets unbalanced lineup recently in his blog.

He makes a good point about the left-handedness of the Mets lineup. Although Reyes, Castillo, and Beltran hit from both sides, the other non-Wright regulars are lefty with Carlos Delgado, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church. Getting a right-handed outfielder would normally seem like a pretty easy-ish task, but with Ibanez, Burrell, and Dunn all being lefties, if the Mets want to add a righty not named Manny it may have to come from something creative. Tatis was a nice story last year but he's no regular or even a semi regular. It'd be nice to see some of the youngins come up but like Shpigel mentions they're lefty.

How imperative is it, Shpigel asks, that the Mets add a potent right-hander? Not something huge, but it's something. In the National League with more changes having an overload of lefties could hurt the Mets late in games, although not nearly as much as their relief. Let's face it, the Mets missed the playoffs because their healthy closer stunk when it mattered and his replacements were laughably worse. The Mets didn't miss the playoffs because they couldn't hit lefty specialists late in games. Both New York teams need to, like they are, focus on pitching. If that fails plan B can be hitting, but wasting any money or time now to tweak already good lineups shouldn't be part of the plan.

Winter Meetings

Today starts the baseball winter meetings in Las Vegas. Start getting prepared for wild rumors and maybe a few signings, as well as some Tim Kurkjian and Jayson Stark rumblings. Some predictions:

• Met's sign K-Rod
• Sabathia is not the first big name starter to sign, Burnett is
• A lot of Furcal talk, probably ends up with Oakland
• A lot of Maddux talk leads Mussina to come back with the Phillies

I like these bulleted lists, expect more and probably some usesless lists just to show them off.

Maddux Retires

We all know the news now how Maddux plans to announce his retirement on Monday. It's probably the best decision for Maddux as no team was really considering his services. The past couple of years he could occasionally have some good starts, but he wasn't the Maddux of old, posting ERA+ the last few years of 109, 98, 93. Nothing to sneeze at, league average pitching or even a little less is valuable in the back of the rotation. There was no need to wait all offseason or even some of the regular season to see if he could get a shot, he doesn't need to prove anything, and if teams didn't want to sign him he's above begging for a contract. The Maddux Hall of Fame debate doesn't actaully exist, and not that Mussina would/should get in his first try, but comparing his stats (arguably HoF worthy) to Maddux's shows how great Maddux was. In 1,445.6 more innings Maddux had a .52 better ERA, 9 better ERA+ (132-123), 85 more wins, 4 more Cy Young Awards among a slew of other complicated stats, and that's comparing Maddux to a guy some people are saying is definitely a Hall of Fame pitcher.

Obviously Maddux is one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball, no debate about that. The only debate now is how far up he ranks. I don't know about you, but when I saw he had 355 wins and Clemens had 354 I smiled big time. It's a good debate who is the better pitcher, but personally it's nice to see Maddux have that extra win. On that note who do you think is better Maddux or Clemens? I will put up my first poll and if anyone actaully votes I'll talk about it later with some of my spin.

Choose a Side Arod

David Ortiz is saying that Alex Rodriguez intends to play for the Dominican Republic for the next World Baseball Classic. In 2006 Arod chose to play for the United States, he is eligible to play for either team since his parents are Dominican. I would think the WBC would want stricter rules on eligibility but I guess not.

Remember that quote a while back from Rodriguez in the Sports Illustrated interview..."When people write [bad things] about me, I don't know if it's [because] I'm good-looking, I'm biracial, I make the most money, I play on the most popular team...."? Wow. It's those kind of quotes and his inability to make a decision that make people dislike Arod (to opt out or not to opt out), but apparantly David Ortiz doesn't mind. How can you play for the U.S. one year to play for your country, then change the next time to a different country. Arod, you can have record breaking contracts, and soon record breaking stats, but you can't have two countries.

Jorge Cantu? Eh Maybe He Can't

The Marlins are never shy to trade away players at their peak value, especially when they are extremely overvalued, just look at the recent trade of Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for a solid pitching prospect Jose Ceda. With that said there are rumors of the Giants and now the White Sox taking a look at Jorge Cantu. This just doesn't seem like a bright idea for either team.

To start the story.... Jorge Cantu came up in 2004 and had a promising 173 at bats as a 22 year old for the Devil Rays (I know they are the Rays now, but they were with the Devil back then). The next year he broke out hitting .286 with 28 HR and 117 RBI. Quite a great year although a closer look at the numbers told a little different story his .311 OBP left a little to be desired, and although he hit 28 homers, his .497 SLG% meant that he wasn't as great a power hitter as maybe expected. To a few fantasy managers chagrin, Cantu stumbled in 2006 batting .249/.295/.404 in 413 ABs. In 2007 he couldn't even make the Devil Rays roster to start the year and in July was traded to Cincinnati. Already having a successful reclamation project with former a former top 2b prospect Brandon Phillips they tried it again with Cantu. And in 57 ABs it looked quasi promising with him posting a .298/.382/.491 line, although he was released that offseason. Then the Marlins did what they do best, picked up a guy on the scrap heap and gave him playing time to see what he's got. They did it with Kevin Gregg picking him up in 2006 and letting him close games in 2007 and 2008 inflating his value and shipping him off for a good prospect. In 2008 on a minor league contract Cantu won the 3b battle in Florida and hit .277 with 29 HR and 95 RBI. Trading Miguel Cabrera in the offseason, the Marlins had a hole at third, and could afford to play a guy like Cantu, something other teams couldn't try.

Now, the Giants and the White Sox are reported to have looked into acquiring Cantu, a guy who wasn't good enough for the Rays and released by the Reds. Bill James predicts Cantu to hit .268/.315/.467, not numbers that you want to trade for, unless you are the Royals and want some more Mike Jacobses. Those are numbers Josh Fields can put up for Chicago sitting there in their farm system, Marcel projects .247/.315/.446 for him, pretty similar production to Cantu but at no cost to trade.

Jorge Cantu isn't a bad player, he has a career ops+ of 102, and he's done well in the two years he has played full time. But there is that little thing where for some years teams don't want him on their major league roster. That's not to say that doesn't happen in baseball, both Raul Ibanez and Jose Guillen were moved around quite a bit before settling in later in their careers. But after one above average year with the Marlins, is Cantu a player worth trading for, for any team let alone the Giants or White Sox? The Giants are trying to stay somewhat competitive landing a couple relievers (Affeldt, Howry) and Renteria (maybe I was a little too harsh on signging Renteria) without sacrificing the future , so how does trading for Cantu fit into that plan? The White Sox are in a little rebuilding mode after trading Vazquez and Swisher this offseason and with a competent comparable to Cantu in the minors why trade for Cantu? Would anyone be surprised if Cantu started off 2009 like he did in 2006 following his breakout year?

For all the flack the Marlins get, they're a damn good franchise. Maybe not the best team for a fan since they may build the team up and immediately take it down, but they don't hang on to players too long, trading them at peak value. Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the jury may still be out because they are still young, but it looks like a good deal now don't it? They can't afford to keep a guy too long and they don't, and the ones that are worth keeping they keep, see Hanley Ramirez's extension. I wonder if the White Sox and Giants are actively looking at Cantu, or if the Marlins are trying their best to shop him with those teams being the ones who called back interested. His value won't be any higher than it is now, and it'd be hard to expect a repeat performance next year, so if the Marlins could trade him this offseason it would have to be considered a win for them, and for what it's worth probably a loss for the other team.

Delmon Young

Delmon Young has been a pretty hot topic in some trade rumors the last couple of days. Some of it stemming from this, this, and some more of this. As a 21 year old rookie in 2007 Young hit .288/.316/.408 with an OPS+ of 91 and played in 162 games. He was then traded to the Twins with Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie for Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and Eduardo Morlan. Last year Young hit .290/.336/.405 with an OPS+ of 102, a slight improvement. The Twins have outfield depth (Young, Carlos Gomez, Mike Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Pridie) and that seems to be the major reason for these rumors. I don't know if this is a result of other teams checking in to get Delmon Young on the cheap or what, but when Twins manager Ron Gardenhire says he doesn't prefer to have Young in his outfield something's gotta give.

Delmon was drafted 1st overall in 2003, and was a consensus top prospect, and even after a promising rookie year he was traded to the Twins, who had to give up a lot to get him. I don't think it'll require that much value to get him in a trade, and with the tools that he has he could be a steal for some teams. Obviously he hasn't lived up to his potential (only being a league average hitting last year) but he'll still only be 23 next year with 2 full seasons under his belt. For what it's worth he increased his BB% last year from 3.9% in 2007 to 5.7% and cut his K% albeit still too high from 19.7% in 2008 to 18.3%. It's not a good sign he hasn't developed any power, but a higher walk rate and decreased strike out rate are good signs. It takes a while to hit in the major leagues, not everyone does it right away and if they do they are older than Delmon, Ryan Braun was 23 in his rookie year the age Delmon will be this year.

You'd have to be stupid to think Delmon has lost his tools that made him a top draft pick, or a top prospect only a few years ago. He has definitely been worse than expected but if the Twins don't want him starting wouldn't a prospect or two be worth it to try him out? The Yankees could lose Matsui Damon and Nady after next year, and wouldn't really need to rely on Delmon to hit. He could play all the outfield positions and with Kevin Long's tutelage you could be looking at a bargain replacement for those guys in 2010.

St. Louis is Getting Green-er

The cards are rumored to have acquired Khalil Greene from the Padres for 2 pitchers. Greene's splits away from Petco are definitely promising, career .270/.318/.484 away and .225/.289/.369 home. And if he's replacing Cesar Izturis' 414 ABs of .263/.319/.309 it's a huge upgrade. Greene has long been mentioned as extra in Peavy deals, and with the Braves getting Vazquez and the Cubs still needing a 3rd or 4th team to pull off the deal, it looks like a Jake Peavy trade is unlikely in the near future.

Mark Worrell the one named pitcher in the trade, did well in AAA this year as a 25 year old. In 53 games he pitched 58.2 innings with 80 strikeouts a 2.15 ERA and a 1.30 whip. He gives up a few too many walks, but 80 k's in 58.2 innings is promising. Greene wasn't going to bring in any big time prospects, but in Petco it looks like Worrell could be the next great setup in San Diego following the likes of Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, and Heath Bell. With still a player needing to be named, it looks like a fair deal. Padres unload some contracts in a year where they aren't expected to do anything, and the Cardinals get an upgrade at SS to help them compete for the Central again.

Giants Sign Renteria

For $18.5m for 2 years, the Giants signed SS Edgar Renteria. Only a 2 year deal it's hard to fault the Giants for trying to get better, but all along you've heard how the Giants have to get younger. Signing a 33 year old shortstop who's long passed his days of being a great fielder doesn't seem to help the team in that regard. According to the article "Giants shortstops ranked last in the NL in batting average (.228) and OPS (.576) and tied for last in home runs (one) and runs (51)" so Renteria will surely improve that. A great point that I've heard a million times (approx. 18.5 million) is that a few wins to a playoff contending team are worth much more than a non contending team. So if Renteria helps the Giants win 74 games instead of 71, is that worth $18.5m? On the other hand, if someone helps the Yankees win 94 games to make the playoffs instead of 91, that is worth the millions. What's the difference between losing 100 games and 90 games, you still stink.

Renteria doesn't make the Giants younger or help their defense. He'll help their lineup definitely when compared to their numbers last year out of that position, but by how much is debatable. But it's not an obscene contract and if it helps keeping Lincecum in town then by all means.

Pat the Bat

I haven't done any pictures yet, so here is my first. Burrell who wasn't offered arbitration by the Phillies, is now a free agent and won't require a team to give up a draft pick. Will he choose a place that needs good night life? Both LA teams could need to replace their sluggers, both NY teams could possibly use his bat. I guess if Philly has a night life enough for a philly2night.com website (thanks for the pic), Pat shouldn't have any problems. Something tells me he brings the party.

Rock On!

I touched a little bit about Tim Raines before with the Hall of Fame. I don't need to any longer as The Hardball Times has started to argue for Raines better than I or anyone else could. Today was just a teaser article, and more is expected tomorrow they say. Ricky Henderson is a shoe-in for the hall and since Raines is comparable but worse than Ricky, I wonder if that really decreases his value. It's unfair to compare to Raines' totals to Henderson's and then say he doesn't deserve it, Ricky is a one of a kind. A better comparison that Hardball Times does is compare Raines to a guy who according to most will get into the hall this year, Jim Rice. They aren't similar players, but the stats show that Raines is a better player and that's all that matters. If Rice gets in Raines should get in, at least at some point.

Sox Lock Up MVPedroia

Dustin Pedroia signed an extension with the Red Sox today, keeping him in Boston until at least 2014. A 6 year $40.5m deal with an option for the 7th year at $11m. Hard to find anyone who will complain or think badly about this move. He was a deserving MVP candidate at 2b and he turned just 25 in August. If they pick up the 7th year he'll still be only 32. Locking up Pedroia for his prime years at under $7m a year is a great move.

He's their Jeter except the Yankees let Jeter go through arbitration every year and then gave him a 10 year $189m deal that still pays him $20m in '09 and $21m '10. The Yankees used to let there young guys go through arbitration because they could afford to pay them, but it seems common knowledge now to lock up your youngins while you can. This is evidenced by the Yankees locking up Cano, but of course they chose the one player who probably doesn't benefit from having not to worry about money the next 5 years. In any case, a solid move to lock up a great player for a fair price for the Red Sox.

Vazquez to Atlanta

Javier Vazquez is heading to Atlanta with Boone Logan (LOOGY specialist, lefty one out guy) for some prospects. This continues the apparent rebuilding job by White Sox GM Ken Williams. I hadn't heard anything about the White Sox rebuilding heading into the offseason, but it's obvious now after they have traded Vazquez and earlier Swisher. I would imagine other pricey players like Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko to be on the market as well. With some pricey free agent hitters sure to be fought over (Manny, Teixeira, and now Dunn, Abreu, Burrell) trading for Dye/Thome/Konerko could be a nice move that won't require you to have them locked in for 3+ years.

Besides those hitters, the only other expensive moveable player of note would be Mark Buehrle who is owed $42m the next 3 years. That is reasonable money for a pitcher who is as durable as anyone and who posted ERAs under 4 the last 2 years. We've heard the unfounded whispers about Roy Halladay trades and the obvious Jake Peavy rumors, it's only time until Buehrle's name is thrown out there. After Burnett and/or Lowe sign for $16m per for 4 or 5 years, Buerhle would become more attractive being as durable as Lowe, lefty, and 2 years younger than Burnett. Maybe the White Sox because of that would like to keep him, but if Peavy is costing too much, there is Buerhle sitting right there injury free with experience in the AL.

Burnett or Lowe

I know I've spent a good amount of time on Burnett and Lowe, but I think it's reasonable. Sabathia is the obvious big name pitcher and with him tied with the Yankees at this point, Burnett and Lowe are the biggest name pitchers. Also, there haven't been many talks with Manny and Teix, so most of the rumor love is going to pitchers. With that said Rob Neyer had a nice Hot Topic chat today regarding Burnett and Lowe.

Good stuff. And I have to agree with Neyer, overall if you are going to sign one of them, Lowe is the better choice. His final point is a great one, with Lowe you know that at least for some of those years you know what you're going to get, with Burnett you can't say that. Both have attributes that would help and then others that would hurt their future success/durability. Burnett is often injured but has a great strikeout rate that (mentioned in the chat) is an indicator of future success. Lowe on the other hand is 5 years older, but supports a great sinker that can and should keep him successful in the game for a long time.

Burnett is 31, which definitely is older than most would imagine, and has never been consistently good. He hasn't ever really put together a great season, and at 31 people are still expecting it to happen. I guess there is potential there still, but at 31 can you reasonably expect him to tap it, and then do it over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?

Babip Baby!

Hardball Times did a great article kind of dissecting BABIP (batting average on balls in play), sorting out players that really outperformed or underperformed their expectations. According to their glossary they explain it as "Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF) This is similar to DER, but from the batters perspective." And the Wikipedia entry does a good job explaining it as well. Essentially someone can't sustain a high or low BABIP. A pitcher who's ERA is really good but had an inordinate amount of balls in play turn into outs likely was lucky and won't repeat that next year. On the hitter's side, if a hitter has an inordinate amount of balls in play turn into hits leading to an inflated batting average, he shouldn't be expected to hit that high again.

So, in the article they used more data to find a hitter's expected BABIP and compared it to their actual BABIP to see who was unlucky and lucky in 2008. According to their findings players like Nick Swisher and Jason Giambi should rebound this year. That is pretty fascinating considering Giambi actually had a productive year, 12th in the AL in OPS. You can expect Billy Beane to be all over that and sign Giambi. Also, it's safe to assume Brian Cashman was on his game acquiring Swisher for very little expecting a return in 2009. Some other pointers, maybe Milton Bradley will be overpayed due to luck and some youngsters like Soto, Kemp, and Aviles may regress.