Friday, December 12, 2008

Ibanez to Phillies

The Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in left field, declined to offer him arbitration (let alone sign him) and replaced him with Raul Ibanez for 3 years $30m. Ibanez is a 36 year old left fielder coming off a .293/.358/.479 season in Seattle. Burrell is a 32 year old left fielder coming off a .250/.367/.507 season. Ok, I understand if the Phillies didn't want to sign Burrell long term, but couldn't they offer him arbitration? If he accepted, one year of Burrell for $15 or so million wouldn't handcuff them for the future, and they would get more production most likely and keep together a World Series Team.

A lot has been mentioned recently about defense, that guys like Burrell, Dunn, and Manny may not get as big offers because of the runs they give up on defense. Sure they can rake, but if you count the runs they give up due to their poor defense they may not deserve the contracts they'll receive. I could see why the Phills then would replace Burrell in general, with maybe a cheaper better defender, but that isn't Ibanez. Thanks to Fan Graphs, Pat Burrell had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -10.8, and Ibanez was -12.6. That's to say Ibanez and Burrell are both far and away below average defenders, both 10 runs or more worse than an average fielder, and in this case Ibanez is even worse, so they're not getting a better fielder.

Moreover, Bill James projects Burrell next year to be .253/377/.490 with a .867 OPS and Ibanez to be .278/.343/.448 with a .791 OPS. To put that in some perspective, it's like the difference in batting between Jim Thome and Randy Winn this year. The Phillies could have given Burrell arbitration and during these financial times with teams not eager to spend (besides the Yankees) he could have decided to accept, and a one year deal wouldn't hurt the team, or even better he could have signed elsewhere and they could receive a draft pick. Or they could have waited and Burrell probably would take a slight pay cut to stay on the team and given him a similar deal to Ibanez. Or they could have looked for a cheaper option that could field well, instead of overpaying for an all bat no glove player. But the Phillies decided to fill their hole in the outfield with an older, worse hitting, worse fielding version of Burrell.

I don't know what former GM Gillick would do, but he was great at finding bargain OFs like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. If you're going to let Burrell go though, shouldn't you find a replacement that's better or at least different?

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