Under the Radar Starters?

Over at Rotoauthority.com they mention a few surprise starters that Bill James predicts to have an ERA under 4. Here's my little take on some of them.

-Tim Wakefield 3.91 ERA. I don't know how one really makes these predictions, let alone makes them for a knuckle ball pitcher. He hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2002, and he'll be 42 next year. However, this Bill James guy is an employee of the Red Sox, and if they're buying Wakefields ERA it should be no surprise that they haven't spent on pitching yet.

-Barry Zito 3.94 ERA. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that Barry Zito has been miserable for the Giants so far. According to FanGraphs, Zito's average fastball velocity was 87.3 in 2005 and last year it checked in at 84.9, obviously not a good sign. Neither are the stats, 5.15 ERA last year with a 85 ERA+. I wouldn't be surprised if Zito did better than last year, but an ERA of 3.94 seems a little ridiculous.

-Pedro Martinez 3.36 ERA. Now this one although still a real big stretch I can maybe see. No he's not going to be a reliable source of innings, but when healthy it shouldn't surprise anyone to see Pedro have a nifty ERA. Any team needing a 5th starter should look Pedro's way.

-Phil Hughes 3.35 ERA. Wow. If Andy Pettitte signs with the Yankees, the Yankees are looking at a 6th starter tops in the AL in ERA. Hughes will only turn 23 in June of this year, so he's still very very young. It's easy to forget Hughes but when you consider that phenom David Price is over a year older than Hughes it reminds you that he's not an afterthought. He was rumored in a few deals this offseason, but there is a reason none of those were close to being considered because the Yankees aren't trading him. Let's not think that Hughes even if he has a 3.35 ERA is going to be durable or pitch a lot of innings, Bill James only predicts 125 innings. But the Yankees haven't forgotten about the youth movement in light of signing Burnett and Sabathia, and with Hughes penciled as the 6th starter, you could be looking at some really good innings filling in occasionally as a spot starter. Or he can bust like he has every time in the majors, save one outing in Texas, and one relief appearance against the Indians in the playoffs...