Cole Hamels Injury

Everyone by now may know that Cole Hamels has a sore elbow, what nobody knows is the severity of it. He is apparently going back to Philly to check in with the team doctor to see what's up.

Maybe it's because I live in New York and there is clearly an east coast bias in sports coverage regardless where you live, but I heard more than enough this offseason about the pitching load that CC Sabathia has had to take the last 2 years. In 2006 CC pitched 192.7 innings, in 2007 250.3 innings, and in 2008 256.2. After a 55+ innings increase (30 more than the famous Verducci Effect) Sabathia showed no ill signs in 2008, infact he increased his load and pitched better.

I'm not saying that this means Sabathia definitely won't show any ill effects in 2009, but you'd think at this point he isn't any more an injury concern than any other pitcher. Also, not that no one has talked about it, but I'm surprised I haven't heard more about Mr. Hamels inning increase. Of course I am hearing more about it now that he's hurt. In 2007 Hamels pitched 189.3 innings, in 2008 he pitched 262.3 innings. He threw 227.3 in the regular season, but 35 extra in the post season, 73 more total innings than the year before.

This could be a nice segue into a fantasy. Evaluating pitchers is harder to do than hitters. Hitters are generally more consistent and they involve less luck. A hitter has more or less control over everything, a pitcher relies on the defense behind him. In addition to that there are pitching injuries which occur more than hitting injuries, at least the really bad ones. So, when you are evaluating pitchers for your fantasy draft, and your concerns about them, do not forget post season pitching.

Hamels finished the regular season with 38 more innings pitched, it fell into the Verducci Effect, but you can live with that. He then added 35 more stellar innings that won the Phillies the World Series, but as you see may cost him some of 2009. There is so much pitching depth in fantasy in rounds 7-15, it really doesn't pay off drafting a guy like Hamels in the 3rd or 4th. I have done some mocks and I can conceivably get Johan Santana 1st-2nd and James Loney 13/14th, or I can get Carlos Zambrano 13/14th and Mark Teixeira 1st/2nd. Which would you prefer? To me it's pretty obvious. You can get ace starter potential in the teens and get automatic hitting production early. Cole Hamels could easily come out of this unscathed and win the NL Cy Young, but it's not worth risking an early pick on him, or any pitcher, in my mind.