Last On Schilling, I Promise

It was no surprise that Schilling v. Mussina Hall of Fame arguments have been thrown around the internet and I have no problem with that (I've been guilty of it), but when you start mentioning David Wells in the same company I start having a problem.

From Was Watching:

everywhere you turn, the question appears: “Is Curt Schilling a Hall-of-Famer?” (Michael Kay even asked Paul O’Neill the question during this evening’s YES coverage of the Sox-Yanks game.)

Well, to that question, I offer two words: David Wells.

Curt Schilling pitched in the major leagues from 1988 through 2007 - playing for 5 different teams. David Wells pitched in the major leagues from 1987 through 2007 - playing for 9 different teams. Let’s look at each of these pitchers as starters, non-starters, and during the post-season:

As starters:

• Curt Schilling made 436 starts, pitching 3,079.3 innings, going 206-134, with an ERA of 3.43 during his career.
• David Wells made 489 starts, pitching 3,171.6 innings, going 221-144, with an ERA of 4.21 during his career.

As non-starters:

• Curt Schilling pitched out of the bullpen 133 times during his career - throwing 181.6 innings while allowing an opponent’s OPS of .686 and an ERA of 3.62.
• David Wells pitched out of the bullpen 171 times during his career - throwing 267.3 innings while allowing an opponent’s OPS of .680 and an ERA of 3.23.

During the post-season:

• Curt Schilling pitched in 19 post-season games, all starts, throwing 133.3 innings, going 11-2 with an ERA of 2.23.
• David Wells pitched in 27 post-season games, 17 being starts, throwing 125 innings, going 10-5 with an ERA of 3.17.

Two pitchers who threw in the same exact era. And, their numbers as starters, relievers, and post-season pitchers are extremely close. Therefore, if Curt Schilling is a Hall-of-Famer, then so is David Wells. Think about that the next time you hear the question “Is Curt Schilling a Hall-of-Famer?”

They are right on one thing, they did pitch in the same exact era. But unless you can't read properly their numbers are not extremely close. Wells has an ERA over 4, Schillings is below 3.5. Schilling has an adjusted-ERA of 127, David Wells' is 108. That's not close, it's not even remotely close. Schilling's is the 41st best of all time career wise right there with Halladay (who has yet to hit a decline phase) and John Smoltz, Wells' is tied at 352, right there with Bronson Arroyo and Kenny Rogers. I didn't use ERA+ to help Schilling's case either, he ranks about 505 places above Wells on the regular old ERA list.

So we know their ERAs weren't close. What about the postseason stats? I loved having Wells on the hill for the Yankees in a big game (save that time his back fell apart on him against Florida), but Schilling is on another level. Better record and better ERA in the playoffs, over a full run better.

Wells has more wins and a better overall winning %, but he pitched for the Yankees dynasty. Curt Schilling spent about a decade on some really putrid Phillies teams. Even with the difference in league, Schilling dominates Wells. Baseball Reference is an amazing site, and one great feature is how you can neutralize players stats putting them into the same league, park, with the same offenses. With that, Schilling gains a few wins and lowers his ERA to 3.15. Wells loses 19 wins and even though he lowers his ERA to 3.76, it still pales into comparison to Schillings.

How can you show us the stats and then tell us they are extremely close when we can see without analyzing a thing that they clearly aren't? It's from a Yankee fan site so I'm sure they don't think highly of Schilling but I'm a Yankee fan and I utterly hate the guy too. Sure they are similar players, but Schilling is significantly better. Schilling even comes up 5th on David Wells' similarity scores from Baseball Reference, along with Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, Mussina, and Pettitte. Schilling's are Kevin Brown, John Smoltz, Drysdale, and Orel Hersheiser. I think I'll take Schilling's company there. When you compare very good players there will undoubtedly be many similarities, but that doesn't make them equal, and in this case both deserving of the Hall.